Cabinet ministers in at-risk seats

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Monday Mar 11,2024 10:02 am
Presented by MDA Space: A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Mar 11, 2024 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Kyle Duggan with Philippe J. Fournier

Presented by MDA Space

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Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today’s edition: 

→ CBSA ramps up forced labor screenings following new customs law.

→ The latest federal projections from PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER include bad news for the Liberals in Quebec. And if they lose there, they could be reduced to the 50-60 seat range nationally.

→ 3 things we’re watching this week, including a one-on-one meeting between PMJT and FRANÇOIS LEGAULT.

DRIVING THE DAY

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Canadian Border Services Agency has made its first detentions of imports since new forced-labor rules came into effect, Playbook has learned.

Stepped-up screenings, involving multiple shipments at multiple ports, targeted solar panels, including ones produced in China, a source with knowledge of the matter tells POLITICO.

— Details scant: CBSA would not confirm or deny whether it has detained any shipments, saying it would not release information that could identify anyone or expose an ongoing investigation. It is not clear how many companies are affected.

The agency issued a memo a month ago to ports of entry instructing that solar panels should be considered a “priority commodity” for additional review, according to documentation provided to Playbook.

Sen. JULIE MIVILLE-DECHÊNE’S Bill S-211, designed to strengthen measures to prevent forced labor and child labor from entering Canadian supply chains, was passed into law last year and its provisions came into effect at the start of January.

— So what?: This may just be a short lived hiccup for renewable deliveries. Or it could become a big headache for industry and a thorn in the side of countries like China, which accounts for most of the world’s solar exports.

— Background: The CBSA has outlined several "commodities of interest," that may be detained and subjected to extra scrutiny over whether the products may have been made with forced labor. Those include cotton from China, especially the Xinjiang region, tomatoes and polysilicon, one of the components used in manufacturing solar cells.

— Stark contrast: The USMCA trade pact prohibits importing goods made by forced labor, though it has not been successfully enforced in Canada. The U.S. in contrast has blocked nearly $1 billion in goods tied to forced labor over about a year since June 2022.

CBSA can detain any goods at the border it suspects of being produced by forced labor, and then if an officer can eventually produce enough evidence to show they were, they will apply a new tariff classification to stop the products from entering Canada. Companies can take legal avenues to challenge such a move.

Border services intercepted a shipment of goods in fall 2021 in Quebec over suspicions forced labor was involved. But the importer challenged it and a tariff review that determined the category did not apply to the goods, allowing the shipment to be released.

The agency says since then, it has not yet classified any shipments as banned items under the tariff category covering forced labor and would not “speculate on the number of possible interceptions” since Jan. 1.

“Interceptions of goods classified as produced by forced labour took place before the legislation came into force,” CBSA spokesperson JACQUELINE ROBY wrote in an email to Playbook. “To date, no further shipments have been classified as prohibited under Tariff Item 9897.00.00 for production by forced labour.”

Do you know more about this developing story? Send Playbook your tips.

 

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FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA

THE LATEST PROJECTIONS — If you thought the Liberals hit their floor of support in late fall, think again. Several Quebec Cabinet ministers are in hot water.

On top of the crushing 35-point defeat the party suffered in the Durham by-election last week, three recent federal polls released showed the Trudeau Liberals trailing the Conservatives by 17, 18, and 20 points. In the 338Canada aggregate, the Conservatives have opened their largest lead yet.

— Think back: Poll after poll found Liberal support tanking in every region of the country, most notably in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, where the Liberals have drawn a significant part of their caucus since taking power in 2015. Through the fall and early winter, their last bastion was Quebec, where the party remained in a statistical tie with the Bloc Québécois.

— Fast forward to now: The polling suggests the floor is collapsing under their feet in la belle province.

In late February, a Léger poll measured LPC support at 21 percent in Quebec, down 13 points compared to 2021. Last week, the Angus Reid Institute also pegged the Liberals at 21 percent there. The latest Abacus Data survey, though, had them at 26 percent.

— Run the numbers: The latest 338Canada aggregate model puts the Liberals at 25 percent in the province — nine points down from the 2021 election.

— Danger, Will Robinson: If an election was held this spring, most Quebec Cabinet ministers would be in danger of losing their seats under the projection.

— On the chopping block: The at-risk seats include: Fisheries Minister DIANE LEBOUTHILLIER (Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine), National Revenue Minister MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU (Compton—Stanstead), Public Services and Procurement Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS (Québec), Innovation, Science and Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE (Saint-Maurice—Champlain), Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT (Laurier—Sainte-Marie) — whose Montreal seat could be challenged by the NDP — and Heritage Minister PASCALE ST-ONGE (Brome—Missisquoi).

— Basically: Every Liberal MP outside of the Greater Montreal and Outaouais regions would likely be defeated if current levels of support last until the next federal election.

— Add up the damage: Down double-digits in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, and ranking in at a distant third place in every province west of Ontario, the Liberals could be reduced to a measly 50-60 seats from coast to coast if they lose Quebec as well. Or worse.

— A week is a long time: Still, a Liberal optimist would point out the election is still a long way off — potentially 588 days from today, on October 20, 2025, the latest it can be held.

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

COMMITTEE BATTLE Expected to dominate today’s political agenda: Whether serial killer PAUL BERNARDO and LUKA MAGNOTTA can live the life of Riley in medium-security prisons.

The Conservatives with the aid of a Bloc MP summoned the Commons public safety committee to hold an 11 a.m. meeting during a break week to consider their request for a study of the prisoner transfers to less stringent facilities, a charged issue sure to suck up attention during a slower week in politics.

It hits on a key CPC theme of slamming the Liberals for being soft on crime. And it has let the Conservatives apply pressure to the NDP, notably B.C. MP PETER JULIAN who sits on the committee.

If the committee deep-sixes the study, add another item to the list the Conservatives can say is being covered up.

— Rink stink: CPC MP FRANK CAPUTO raised hell after visiting the La Macaza facility outside Montreal, where he noticed the facility has a hockey rink and said he saw a “well-fed” Bernardo.

On Sunday, Caputo shared a letter by MARCIA PENNER, a friend of one of Bernardo’s victims, KRISTEN FRENCH, sent to Correctional Service Canada Commissioner ANNE KELLY.

“The difference between a maximum-security penitentiary and a medium-security facility such as La Macaza couldn’t be more different,” she wrote. “By leaving Bernardo in medium security, you are telling everyone that what this monster did wasn’t that bad.”

Caputo has challenged Kelly to a one-on-one radio interview debate.

— Not so facts: CP’s STEPHANIE TAYLOR found the rink and tennis courts have fallen into disuse. PressProgress’ LUKE LEBRUN dated the rink to at least 2014, existing under the previous Conservative government.

But with enough ammo for both sides at the committee table over an emotionally charged debate, this will be a fire fight to watch.

 — Related reading: Here’s CBC’s J.P. TASKER with the look-ahead and background.

TÊTE-À-TÊTE — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU meets with Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT on Friday, and is expected to cover the burning issue of immigration funding.

That’s according to La Presse Canadienne (here’s an English translation via CityNews).

PABLO RODRIGUEZ, transport minister and the Liberals’ Quebec lieutenant, reportedly helped set up the meeting.

— Approaching 'crisis': Legault’s government insists Quebec is at capacity and can’t keep providing public services to new arrivals. The province has demanded C$1 billion from Ottawa to cover costs from asylum seekers since 2021, claiming it’s on the verge of a humanitarian crisis and that Quebec’s identity is at risk, PHILIP AUTHIER reported in the Montreal Gazette. But the federal government has only approved C$155 million.

— Pressure is on: Down in the polls, Legault is being pressed in the Quebec legislature by the PQ to call a referendum on immigration powers.

PHARMACAN THEY DO IT? How exactly did the Liberals and NDP whittle coverage in their new pharmacare plan down to just two drug classes: birth control and diabetes?

That question has been largely left out of all the talk about the new legislation, and the technical briefing by Ottawa bureaucrats on the bill’s release didn’t reveal that answer.

A new commentary out this morning in the Canadian Medical Association Journal on the heavy financial burden of cancer care points out ERIC HOSKINSpharmacare report frequently referenced costly cancer treatments as a rationale for more comprehensive, national drug funding.

Fiscally constrained Ottawa vows to produce a list of essential medicines, eventually, and consider expanding the basket of coverage. But it has also described the move as a pilot project and it still needs to work out deals with provinces.

But the why should at least be clear by now.

— The political appeal: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and several Cabinet ministers plugged the bill at Women’s College Hospital in Toronto on the eve of International Women’s Day.

“There has been an outpouring of support from women, right across this country, every corner of it,” said Women and Gender Equality Minister MARCI IEN. “I am talking activists, I am talking medical professionals, young women, experts — all saying that this was the right thing to do.”

On the day the new bill was announced, NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH called out “direct attacks on women’s rights and a woman’s right to choose” south of the border when touting the new plan.

— The policy goals: Some 9 million Canadians are of reproductive age, according to Health Canada officials, and studies have consistently shown cost is a barrier to birth control. Low-income Canadians and young adults tend to not have coverage.

Insulin has also become much more expensive and the consequences of rationing medication can be devastating to a person.

As University of Ottawa professor PATRICK FAFARD previously pointed out to Playbook, the provinces have had “trouble keeping up in terms of whatever assistance programs they do have, so that is a good policy rationale.”

He also noted the two drug classes are “salient” — everyone knows what they are, what they do and who they help.

Hoskins previously told Playbook the pharmacare push could help millions of Canadians: “Do we have a long way to go still? Sure, of course, but the two classes of drugs for diabetes and for contraception — those are two great places to start.”

— Questions raised: The media™ spent the past week and change raising its eyebrows about the realities of where this is all headed. ICYMI, see health journalism dean ANDRÉ PICARD’s take in the Globe, noting Canada’s health-care sector is littered with pilot projects that failed to scale up.

— Related listening: ALTHIA RAJ’s Friday “It’s Political” podcast tackles the realities of the issue and includes an interview with self-described incrementalist Health Minister MARK HOLLAND, who has expressed optimism about inking deals with several provinces.

Here’s an excerpt that lays out the state of play:

→ Raj: “In the end, pharmacare in Canada may not look like the bill that you tabled. Decisions could be made to go in another direction. As well, that could look at whether or not the governments are the first payee or the payee-of-last resort — that is also on the table. We may or may not have decisions before the next election campaign, including how we want to pay for it. But your goal is that at least the program is being rolled out before the next campaign.”

→ Holland: “That's correct. That's a fair characterization.”

 

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Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the national capital region with no scheduled public events.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Victoria, B.C., to tour an apartment building with a media avail at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. local) and promote the government’s housing plan. She then meets with B.C. Premier DAVID EBY.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH speaks to students at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. local time) as part of a Centre for Public Policy Research speaker series. The talk is closed to media.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY has “personal appointments” on her schedule.

DULY NOTED

Governor General MARY SIMON is in Matanuska-Susitna Valley, Alaska for the Arctic Winter Games running until Tuesday.

MEDIA ROOM

On "The West Block" with MERCEDES STEPHENSON, retired Gen. TOM LAWSON pitched a way to fix the Canadian military’s recruitment woes: Pay them more.

— Penticton Western News’ BRENNAN PHILLIPS breaks down what PIERRE POILIEVRE was up to in Penticton, B.C., and why the riding of South Okanagan—West Kootenay is one to watch.

— Global’s NAOMI BARGHIEL reports Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND slashed the beer tax ahead of a planned April 1 hike.

— CBC’s ELIZABETH THOMPSON got her hands on an internal RCMP report warning Canada faces multiple crises in the years ahead that will likely get worse.

— The Star’s ALTHIA RAJ explains why the pharmacare bill ought to come with a warning label: “Don’t get your hopes up.”

— CBC’s AARON WHERRY writes there’s “not an obvious playbook” for how the federal government should react to Saskatchewan refusing to pay the carbon tax.

— Meanwhile, STEPHEN BRUN reports that PEI’s PC Premier DENNIS KING wrote to PMJT calling for a halt to the April carbon tax hike.

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro s, our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM: Poilievre wants an end to ‘Buy America.’

In other news for Pro readers:

Pentagon dashes to link artificial intelligence with weapons.

New York's cap-and-trade proposal threatens state's climate goals.

DOE opens up $425M for clean energy supply chains in coal communities.

White House completes review of USDA meat labeling rule.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency eyes revamp to Trump-era air pollution permit regs.

Playbookers

Birthdays: Former Ontario Cabinet minister MONTE MCNAUGHTON celebrates today and birthday twins with former MPs ANDREW SAXTON (60!), BILL SIKSAY and KYLE PETERSON.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: Newly minted CPC MP JAMIL JIVANI introducing ANA POILIEVRE at an Etobicoke “axe the tax” rally. PIERRE POILIEVRE taking off his jacket to show off a CPC T-shirt designed by Ana, with a dig at a certain shirtless-jogging PM: "That's all that's coming off — I'm not Justin Trudeau here.”

Also there was York Centre candidate ROMAN BABER.

Apple sighting: At the rally, Poilievre munched down on one and said, “An apple a day keeps the liberal journalists away.”

Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and Liberal MP YA’ARA SAKS in Israel visiting Yad Vashem, the memorial to Holocaust victims.

Movers and shakers: KELLY WALSH and WILLIAM QUINN appointed chair and vice-chair of the Military Grievances External Review Committee. 

Media mentions: Carleton’s political management program is hosting a live taping of PETER MANSBRIDGE’s “Good Talk” pod with CHANTAL HÉBERT and BRUCE ANDERSON on March 19, with up to 75 audience slots open.

On the Hill

Find House committees here.

Keep track of Senate committees here.

The House and Senate are on a constituency break until March 18.

11 a.m. The House public safety committee will meet to discuss a request to launch a study on the reclassification and transfer of LUKA MAGNOTTA and other federal offenders.

TRIVIA

Friday’s answer: The two PMs who died in office were JOHN A. MACDONALD (during a parliamentary session in 1891) and JOHN SPARROW DAVID THOMPSON, in 1894 when Parliament was prorogued.

Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, PATRICK DION, BRANDON RABIDEAU, RAY PENNINGS, PATRICK ST-JACQUES, DARREN MAJOR, MATT DELISLE, ELIZABETH BURN, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, JIM CAMPBELL, DOUG SWEET, SARA MAY, ANTHONY VALENTI, ALEX STEINHOUSE, GERMAINE MALABRE, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, KEVIN BOSCH, GREGORY THOMAS, JANE DOULL and ETHAN SPENCER.

Today’s question: Who is the only former prime minister whose grave is located outside of Canada?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

 

Follow us on Twitter

Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

Sue Allan @susan_allan

Maura Forrest @MauraForrest

Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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