Playbook PM: Dems’ difficult Friday the 13th

From: POLITICO Playbook - Friday Aug 13,2021 05:06 pm

Aug 13, 2021

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A mid-August Friday afternoon in Washington should be a slow news day: the 90-something air thick with humidity, lawmakers back home on recess, everybody readying to start their weekend a few hours earlier than scheduled. True to form, most of that’s playing out today.

But this is also Friday the 13th, and Democrats at either end of Pennsylvania Avenue are grappling with more than the usual share of bad fortune.

At the White House: Afghanistan’s security landscape is deteriorating even faster than the pessimists expected, placing a key foreign policy decision from President JOE BIDEN under new scrutiny. Though the American public has, for years, supported winding down U.S. involvement in foreign wars, the rapid advance of the Taliban is opening a major new line of political attack for Republicans — and driving a wedge among administration officials.

— WaPo’s Anne Gearan and Karen DeYoung lay out the political stakes: “Republicans are already pouncing as the country’s collapse has accelerated in recent days. … But the politics of Afghanistan — and America’s foreign engagements in general — are not straightforward. Some centrist Democrats have joined hawkish Republicans in questioning the Afghan pullout. And some conservative libertarians agree with liberal peace activists that the United States should not spend blood and treasure overseas that could be used at home. …

“Biden’s confidence that he can quit a war that snared his predecessors is also based on a view that leaving will have few costs for the United States. … Most Americans support the military withdrawal … The political risk to Biden will grow if he is wrong and significant terrorist attacks are launched from Afghan soil.”

— One example of the strange political bedfellows: On Thursday, White House chief of staff RON KLAIN retweeted former Libertarian Rep. @justinamash: “The Taliban’s rapid gains in Afghanistan underscore the futility of permanent occupation. The United States wasn’t able to meaningfully shape circumstances through 20 years of war. We’d have seen the same results had we pulled out 15 years ago or 15 years from now. End the wars.”

— Axios’ Jonathan Swan goes behind the scenes at 1600 Penn, where “senior U.S. officials are privately acknowledging that the Afghans appear psychologically defeated,” though “Biden’s key aides aren’t second-guessing his decision to withdraw.”

— Latest from Afghanistan: “Panic and disbelief as thousands flee Taliban onslaught,” BBC: “The UN has urged Afghanistan’s neighbors to keep their borders open as the number of civilians fleeing the Taliban onslaught swells. … Food shortages are ‘dire,’ the World Food Programme said. It warned of a humanitarian catastrophe.”

— Painful read: “‘Why did my friend get blown up? For what?’: Afghanistan war veterans horrified by Taliban gains,” by WaPo’s Andrew Jeong and Jennifer Hassan

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Meanwhile on Capitol Hill, Speaker NANCY PELOSI is struggling to quell a new rebellion from nine House moderates demanding that the chamber pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill before they’ll vote for the $3.5 trillion budget package. It’s another reminder that with the party’s margins so narrow, any group of four has existential leverage. And that in Democrats’ complicated legislative two-step, everybody’s a chicken and everybody’s an egg.

— The nine members of the “Mod Squad”: Reps. JOSH GOTTHEIMER of New Jersey, FILEMON VELA, HENRY CUELLAR and VINCENTE GONZALEZ of Texas, ED CASE of Hawaii, JARED GOLDEN of Maine, JIM COSTA of California, CAROLYN BOURDEAUX of Georgia and KURT SCHRADER of Oregon. The letter … More from Heather Caygle

— CNN’s Manu Raju (@mkraju): “The problem for Dems and this group: Progressive Dems have vowed to vote against the infrastructure deal if it’s brought up first. The House returns the week of Aug. 23rd for Pelosi to try to sort this out.”

— How it’s playing … N.Y. Mag’s Jonathan Chait: “9 Moderate Democrats Threaten to Tank Entire Biden Presidency”

But all luck runs out at some point — even bad luck. A Trump-appointed judge’s decision today to allow the CDC eviction moratorium to stand, for now at least, will give Democrats and renters something to smile about.

Happy Friday afternoon.

INFRASTRUCTURE YEAR

ANOTHER WRENCH IN THE WORKS — “Crypto tax spurs House Democrats to rethink infrastructure bill,” by Victoria Guida: “Crypto-friendly House Democrats are plotting a long-shot bid to scale back digital currency tax rules tucked into President Joe Biden’s infrastructure plan, threatening to prolong a lobbying battle that snarled the legislation in the Senate. … Leading the charge in the House are California Democrats in the orbit of Silicon Valley, including Reps. RO KHANNA, ERIC SWALWELL and ANNA ESHOO.

“They’re being joined in the fight by cryptocurrency enthusiasts such as Reps. BILL FOSTER (D-Ill.) and DARREN SOTO (D-Fla.) … Amending the bill in the House would threaten one of Biden’s highest policy priorities because it would then be sent back to the Senate. … Soto said cryptocurrency supporters in Congress would try to use ‘every avenue’ to change the tax rules, including potentially through Democrats’ $3.5 trillion budget package or standalone legislation.”

CONGRESS

Pelosi announced this morning that remote voting in the House has been extended through Oct. 1.

PANDEMIC

ICYMI — “FDA authorizes additional dose of Covid-19 vaccine for the immunocompromised,” Stat: “The amended emergency use authorizations say the third doses of vaccine should be given at least 28 days after the second shot in the series. … The [CDC vaccine advisory panel] is scheduled to meet on Friday to recommend the changes the FDA’s revision allows. It is expected that CDC Director ROCHELLE WALENSKY will sign off on the recommendation later on Friday.”

TOP-ED — “Don’t Be a Schmuck. Put on a Mask,” by Arnold Schwarzenegger in The Atlantic: “Generations of Americans made incredible sacrifices, and we’re going to throw fits about putting a mask over our mouth and nose?”

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TRUMP CARDS

RUSSIAGATE’S LONG TAIL — “Durham Probe of What Sparked Russia Investigation Examines FBI Tipsters,” by WSJ’s Aruna Viswanatha and Sadie Gurman: “Special Counsel JOHN DURHAM, appointed during the Trump administration to examine the origins of the FBI’s 2016 Russia probe, is presenting evidence to a grand jury and preparing a lengthy report expected to be completed in the coming months …

“Mr. Durham has been examining potential criminal charges against several lower-level FBI employees, and people who aren’t in government … A Justice Department spokeswoman declined to say whether [A.G. MERRICK] GARLAND has decided to allow Mr. Durham’s probe to continue beyond September or approved a budget for the next fiscal year … Prosecutors working for Mr. Durham have focused on people outside the FBI who provided information that helped to fuel the 2016 investigation.”

THE ECONOMY

DELTA WARNING SIGN — “Consumer sentiment measure falls to pandemic-era low, sees one of largest drops on record,” CNBC: “The Consumer Sentiment Index tumbled to 70.2 in its preliminary August reading. … It was the lowest reading for the measure since 2011. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting a reading of 81.3 for August. And a sudden drop of that magnitude is extremely rare for the index.”

POLICY CORNER

MAKING A BIG IMPACT — “Round one of child tax credit payments slashed hunger rates, U.S. data shows,” by Helena Bottemiller Evich: “Before the first tranche of tax credit payments hit bank accounts in mid-July, about 11 percent of households with children reported that they sometimes or often did not have enough to eat in the past week. After the money went out, the rate dropped to just over 8 percent — a decrease of nearly 24 percent — and the lowest rate recorded since the beginning of the pandemic.”

— “Child Tax Credit Payments Rise in Second Month,” WSJ: “The second monthly payment of child tax credits reached the households of nearly 61 million children, the Treasury Department said. That is a 2.7% increase from July, indicating that new sign-ups are outpacing taxpayers’ decisions to opt out of the regular payments.”

FED UP ON THE LEFT — “Climate Movement Keeping Close Eye on Biden Fed Chair Nomination,” by Bloomberg’s Nancy Cook: “Climate activists are starting to map out a coordinated campaign to oppose the potential re-nomination of Federal Reserve Chair JEROME POWELL … The campaign will kick off on August 26 at the start of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium … They want Biden to pick a chairman who views climate policy as significant as monetary policy and maximum employment.”

AND HOT ON THE RIGHT — “Mayorkas says border crisis ‘unsustainable’ and ‘we’re going to lose’ in leaked audio,” by Fox News’ Edmund DeMarche, Emma Colton and Bill Melugin: “[DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO] MAYORKAS told [Texas Border Patrol] agents that the current border situation ‘cannot continue.’ He said the federal government’s system was not designed to handle such an influx of migrants as the U.S. has seen in recent months and he was ‘very well’ aware that the sector recently came close to ‘breaking.’ ‘It’s our responsibility to make sure that that never happens again,’ he said.”

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BEYOND THE BELTWAY

CLIMATE FILES — “It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record,” NOAA

THE NEW CENSUS DATA, ON THE GROUND — “A Colorado county offers glimpse of America’s future,” by WaPo’s Silvia Foster-Frau: “For the first time in its history, the majority of Adams County, Colo., residents are people of color. In fact, the Census figures confirm, the entire American West has flipped to majority-minority — the first major geographical region in the United States to do so. The South is not far behind. And by the 2040s, the entire nation is expected to follow. …

“With the change has come a struggle, and a question of whether a country that has historically offered preferential treatment to its White majority can evolve its power structures to better reflect the new multiracial reality.”

— “Where Is America Diversifying the Fastest? Small Midwestern Towns,” by WSJ’s John McCormick and Paul Overberg with a focus on Columbus, Ind.: “Jobs in agriculture, meat processing, manufacturing and other sectors—as well as a lower cost of living than in many larger metropolitan areas—are attracting immigrants to middle America. The political influence of these newer arrivals could grow in the coming decades as more immigrants become voting citizens. For now, these trends generally favor Democrats.”

INTERESTING — Dave Wasserman (@redistrict): “Fact: Republicans hold 18 of the 25 congressional districts that grew the most between 2010-2020 *and* 15 of the 25 districts that shrunk the most.”

POLITICS ROUNDUP

CUOMO FALLOUT — “The Vindication of Andrew Cuomo’s Accusers,” by The New Yorker’s Eric Lach: “‘He couldn’t resign without first being the victim and blaming all of us,’ [CHARLOTTE] BENNETT, who worked as an executive assistant and senior briefer to [Gov. ANDREW] CUOMO, told me. Still, before Cuomo was even done talking, Bennett and her boyfriend were celebrating and hugging.

“Cuomo’s announcement gave LINDSEY BOYLAN little satisfaction. … Minutes before Cuomo’s speech, his lawyer, RITA GLAVIN, delivered her own remarks — live-streamed on the state government’s Web site — in which she said, of Boylan, ‘She was out for some type of revenge against the Governor’s office.’ ‘It was like December 13th again,’ Boylan told me, referring to the day last year when the Governor’s office leaked confidential internal documents about her to the press.”

MEDIAWATCH

THE NEW CONSERVATIVE NEXUS — “Inside Fox News, DeSantis is ‘the future of the party.’ And he’s taking advantage,” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Steve Contorno: “From the week of the 2020 election through February, the network asked [Florida Gov. RON] DESANTIS to appear on its airwaves 113 times, or nearly once a day. Sometimes, the requests came in bunches — four, five, even six emails in a matter of hours from producers who punctuated their overtures with flattery. …

“There are few surprises when DeSantis goes live with Fox. ‘Exclusive’ events … are carefully crafted with guidance from DeSantis’ team. Topics, talking points and even graphics are shared in advance. … By turning to DeSantis to fill the many hours of airtime once devoted to former President Donald Trump, Fox has made Florida’s hard-charging leader one of the country’s most recognizable Republicans. That has given DeSantis a leg up on others who may seek the party’s nomination for president in 2024. …

“Through a spokesperson, Fox News said the network ‘works to secure interviews daily with headliners across the political spectrum which is a basic journalism practice at all news organizations.’”

WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT — “The Co-Founder Of The Fact-Checking Site Snopes Was Writing Plagiarized Articles Under A Fake Name,” by Dean Sterling Jones for BuzzFeed: “DAVID MIKKELSON, the co-founder of the fact-checking website Snopes, has long presented himself as the arbiter of truth online, a bulwark in the fight against rumors and fake news. But he has been lying to the site’s tens of millions of readers: A BuzzFeed News investigation has found that between 2015 and 2019, Mikkelson wrote and published dozens of articles containing material plagiarized from news outlets such as the Guardian and the LA Times. …

“Snopes VP of Editorial and Managing Editor DOREEN MARCHIONNI suspended Mikkelson from editorial duties pending ‘a comprehensive internal investigation.’ He remains an officer and a 50% shareholder of the company. … In an interview with BuzzFeed News, Mikkelson attributed this behavior to his lack of formal journalism experience.” Mikkelson’s statement

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