Playbook PM: Pelosi makes a deal and Biden makes a deadline double-down

From: POLITICO Playbook - Tuesday Aug 24,2021 05:40 pm

Aug 24, 2021

By Rachael Bade, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Presented by

BREAKING ON CAPITOL HILL — Speaker NANCY PELOSI has sealed a deal with the group of 10 moderates led by Rep. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.). “Just waiting on [the] final statement from Speaker Pelosi to be released,” tweets Heather Caygle. Dem leadership is expecting all moderates to vote for compromise — more on that below.

DEVELOPING — “Biden sticks to Aug. 31 withdrawal from Afghanistan,” by Lara Seligman and Andrew Desiderio

This is going to cause major waves. Consider the following:

— In-the-know Democratic leaders publicly disagree with the deadline. Just Monday night, House Intelligence Chair ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) said it seemed “very unlikely” that the U.S. could safely evacuate Americans and their allies in such a short time frame. And this morning, lawmakers — read: House Democrats — pressed Cabinet officials in a private briefing over extending the deadline, as our Andrew Desiderio and Connor O’Brien report.

“I think there was strong bipartisan support to extend the Aug. 31 deadline,” said Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN (D-Mich.), a former CIA and Defense Department official. “That was a major theme, a major comment, a major point that we all tried to make, urging them to do more to advocate with the president to extend the deadline.”

— Many Republicans have been pressing the administration to do more — to expand the temporary U.S. presence, to extract U.S. citizens in other cities to ensure they can get to the airport and fly to safety. And with a seeming gap between President JOE BIDEN and other Democrats, they’ll be eager to exacerbate the divide.

— It risks the appearance of bending to the will of the Taliban, which has threatened repercussions if the U.S. breaks from the Aug. 31 deadline. Just this morning, we spoke to Rep. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Texas), a former Navy SEAL who served in Afghanistan, about this. He went on a tear about the perils of relying on the Taliban to play fair.

“We need to send a very clear message to the Taliban: ‘We’re not negotiating about our deadline.’ That should be the message,” Crenshaw said. “We should laugh at them when they say that: ‘Oh, well, that’s a red line for us. You need to be out by Aug. 31.’ No. No. And if you get in our way when we are extracting Americans, we will kill you. That is the only message that Biden should be delivering to the Taliban right now.” Watch the full Playbook interview

You can expect to hear more talk like that.

The other big Afghanistan news today: “CIA Director William Burns held secret meeting in Kabul with Taliban leader Abdul Ghani Baradar,” by WaPo’s John Hudson

— @KenDilanianNBC paints the picture: “Baradar was once captured and jailed with the CIA’s help. Yesterday he sat across the table from CIA Director William Burns as the de facto leader of the victorious Taliban.”

A message from Facebook:

Internet regulations are as outdated as dial-up.

The internet has changed a lot in the last 25 years. That's why Facebook supports updated internet regulations to address today's toughest challenges, including:
- Combating foreign election interference
- Protecting people’s privacy
- Allowing people to safely transfer data between services
- Reforming Section 230

DEMS’ TWO-STEP FINDS THE BEAT — Pelosi and other Democratic leaders have many more hurdles yet to overcome in their complicated effort to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill and $3.5 trillion partisan spending bill. But they cleared one today, as Pelosi and the 10 “Mod Squad” holdouts circled an agreement to break their Monday impasse.

— Our colleagues Heather Caygle, Sarah Ferris, Nicholas Wu and Anthony Adragna have the latest : “After several hours of furious negotiating Monday night, Pelosi and her team are close to announcing the compromise, which they hope to put on the floor as soon as Tuesday afternoon … Most, if not all, of the recalcitrant moderates — led by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) — were expected to accept the deal and back the budget blueprint on the floor later Tuesday.”

“These negotiations are never easy,” House Rules Chair JIM MCGOVERN (D-Mass.) said at a committee meeting this morning. “I think it was HILLARY CLINTON who says, ‘It takes a village.’ I say, ‘It takes a therapist.’ But the therapy session is done.”

Well… not quite. The committee ended up meeting again at 12:45 p.m. after moderates pushed for stronger language. (Also, McGovern is on fire with the quips today: “We’ve gone from therapy to shock treatment.” … “Someone asked me whether or not they can make dinner tonight. I said, ‘You’ll be able to make cocktails.’”)

But this is fine print. The big picture is that a date is set for the infrastructure vote (Sept. 27) — a decoupling of the two massive pieces of legislation that leaders hoped to keep linked — and a deal seems at hand.

SCARY NEWS IN HANOI — “Two U.S. diplomats to be evacuated from Vietnam after ‘Havana Syndrome’ incidents,” by NBC’s Josh Lederman and Andrea Mitchell: “The cases caused a brief delay in [VP KAMALA] HARRIS’ scheduled trip to Vietnam … Just hours before Harris arrived in the country, U.S. personnel in Hanoi were informed by the U.S. chargé d'affaires in Vietnam, Christopher Klein, that people had ‘experienced anomalous acoustic incidents here in Hanoi’ over the weekend …

“The description of the incidents as ‘acoustic’ indicates that the affected diplomats heard strange sounds. That was also the case with many of the original Havana Syndrome cases in Cuba, but there have been other incidents that did not involve sound. The weekend incidents in Hanoi occurred at the staffers’ homes, not at the U.S. Embassy.” Plus: CNBC on Harris’ big speech in Singapore about regional tensions and the South China Sea

Good Tuesday afternoon.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

MORE ON AFGHANISTAN

THE LATEST TALLY — About 21,600 people were evacuated from Kabul during the 24-hour period ending at 3 a.m. EDT, according to the White House.

— NBC’s @RichardEngel: “Area around Kabul airport remains tense, but not mad chaos of a few days ago. Smaller crowds. Didn’t see any Taliban whipping people. a few shots in air. But much more quiet [than] before.”

OUTLIER POLL OR WARNING SIGN? — “Americans’ harsh judgment on Afghanistan costs Biden’s approval, down to 41%,” by USA Today’s Susan Page, Matthew Brown and Mabinty Quarshie: “Americans by more than 2-1 say the war in Afghanistan, launched in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, wasn’t worth it. In a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, 3 of 4 predict the Taliban-led country will once again become a haven for terrorists targeting the United States. … [O]nly 32% of independents say he's doing a good job. …

“Biden’s decision to pull out troops was backed by most Americans, 53%-38%. But almost two-thirds, 62%, disapproved of the way his administration has handled that withdrawal. … On one issue, nearly everyone agreed, and across party lines: By 84%-10%, those surveyed said the Afghans who had worked as translators for the U.S. military – and as a result may now be targeted for retribution – should be eligible for special refugee visas.”

— Related … CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez (@camiloreports): “DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS is using his humanitarian parole authority to allow at-risk Afghans without visas to enter the U.S., including those with *pending* Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) applications, a senior Biden administration told reporters during a call today.”

THE VIEW FROM THE ADMINISTRATION — “‘The definition of gaslighting’: As chaos unfolds at Kabul airport, Biden team projects calm,” by Lara Seligman, Alex Thompson and Alexander Ward: “[T]he West Wing is looking increasingly disconnected from reality … While the evacuation has significantly ramped up in recent days, the reality on the ground belies the narrative that the situation is under control. …

“In order to speed the evacuation effort, defense officials in recent days proposed retaking Bagram airbase … But the proposal was nixed because the White House and some Pentagon officials worried it would require deploying a large number of additional forces and could spark a conflict with the Taliban.”

HEARTBREAKING READS — “He took his wife and kids to Afghanistan one last time. Now he can’t get them out,” by WaPo’s William Wan … “Afghans Fleeing Taliban Grow More Desperate as Clock Ticks on U.S. Evacuation,” by WSJ’s Elizabeth Findell, Erin Delmore and James Fanelli … “A Kabul evacuee’s tale: Dread, chaos and the Taliban,” by BBC’s Neha Sharma

POLITICS ROUNDUP

DEEP IN THE HEART — Interesting scoop this morning from Texas Monthly’s Jonathan Tilove: MATTHEW DOWD, the former ABC News political analyst and adviser to President GEORGE W. BUSH, is considering running against Texas Lt. Gov. DAN PATRICK as a Democrat.

Dowd told Tilove that he’s interested in running for statewide office in 2022, but doesn’t want to run for governor against GREG ABBOTT. Tilove: “That leaves Patrick and [A.G. KEN] PAXTON as potential targets.” Dowd: “I don’t want to say any more, but I’m also not a lawyer so you can take it from there.”

RECALL ME MAYBE — “Democrats sweat turnout disaster in California without Trump to run against,” by David Siders in Los Angeles: “California’s surprisingly close gubernatorial recall election is laying bare just how hard it may be for the party to motivate its base without [DONALD] TRUMP as a foil. Even in this bastion of progressive politics, ominous signs for the Democratic Party are everywhere. …

“The lack of enthusiasm is so concerning to Democrats that GAVIN NEWSOM, the state’s Democratic governor, has been furiously working to yoke his main Republican opponent, LARRY ELDER, to Trump, while volunteers working with the progressive advocacy group Courage California texted voters a plea last week not to throw their mail ballots away.”

— “Gavin Newsom Is in Trouble. Could He Take Biden with Him?” by Puck’s Peter Hamby: “Newsom’s real predicament coalesces around the fact that plenty of the people considering REMOVE are lifelong Democrats who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 … I know far too many people in California, many of them millennials, who voted for Biden last year, but today either don’t know that there’s a recall, don’t know how the ballot works, or simply don’t care. … What might save the campaign, in the end, is mail-in voting, instituted during the pandemic.”

THE SWAMP FINDS A DRAIN — “Republican Lobbyist Barry Bennett Comes Under DOJ Scrutiny,” by WSJ’s Byron Tau, Aruna Viswanatha and Julie Bykowicz: “Federal prosecutors are investigating BARRY BENNETT, a Republican lobbyist and one-time unpaid campaign adviser to former President Donald Trump, over allegations that he secretly set up and funded a U.S.-based advocacy group without disclosing its ties to the government of Qatar …

“Prosecutors have presented evidence to a grand jury alleging that Mr. Bennett set up and funded a political group called Yemen Crisis Watch … as a way to embarrass Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. … Yemen Crisis Watch never registered with the U.S. government, as it would have been obligated to do under the Foreign Agents Registration Act if representing foreign interests. Mr. Bennett didn’t report that he set up and funded the organization. … A prominent evangelical minister and a Kansas Republican politician [then-Lt. Gov. JEFF COLYER ] took up its cause, placing op-eds in a Washington newspaper and participating in a congressional briefing in late December.”

2022 WATCH — “The GOP’s full-court press to recruit NH Gov Sununu to run for Senate in 2022,” by Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser in Gilford, N.H.: “[Gov. CHRIS] SUNUNU has long been a critic of politics in the nation’s capital, but [NRSC Chair RICK] SCOTT said his message to the governor is, ‘You can make a difference… I think you can get things done…you just have to work at it every day.’ … Scott and Sununu met privately for roughly 20 minutes ahead of their public appearance together at Gunstock … But Sununu is in no rush to make any decisions.”

POLICY CORNER

CLIMATE FILES — “Scientists say the world urgently needs to cut methane emissions. The politics aren’t as simple,” by Zack Colman: “[It’s] the clearest near-term way to put the planet on a more sustainable temperature trajectory. But wrestling methane is presenting a new round of political and practical complications for the Biden administration: Agriculture, including livestock and land-based systems, accounts for 40 percent of global methane emissions — spurring concern among Republicans and farm-state Democrats about regulatory efforts to tackle the problem.

“Senate Democrats plan to include a so-called ‘methane polluter fee’ in their $3.5 trillion budget resolution that would hit energy producers that vent or burn off excess methane and compressors used to pressurize and transport natural gas. … But Republicans are preparing to fight Democrats’ efforts by saying it would increase costs to everyday Americans for things like home heating, electricity and groceries.”

Be a Policy Pro. POLITICO Pro has a free policy resource center filled with our best practices on building relationships with state and federal representatives, demonstrating ROI, and influencing policy through digital storytelling. Read our free guides today .

PANDEMIC

THE BOOSTER SHOT RATIONALE — “New CDC studies point to waning immunity from vaccines,” by Erin Banco

INCOMING — “Asian American leaders fear Covid-19 origin report could fuel more bigotry and violence,” by CNN’s Nicole Chavez: “For the past three months, US intelligence agencies have been poring over data and raw intelligence after President Joe Biden ordered a 90-day investigation into how the Covid-19 virus originated, including the possibility that it emerged from a lab accident. The deadline for the report is up this week.”

THE PREVENTABLE DISASTER — “Many Older Americans Still Aren’t Vaccinated, Making the Delta Wave Deadlier,” by NYT’s Josh Holder and Amy Schoenfeld Walker: “Older people still account for most Covid-19 deaths, and in many counties, especially in the South and Mountain West, seniors without full vaccination make up more than 10 percent of the total population. … By contrast, unvaccinated seniors in Britain, Spain and Canada are relatively rare. And they are rare there no matter where you live … That discrepancy may help explain why the Delta wave has led to such a higher rate of death in the United States than in Britain.”

— “Telling conservatives it’s a shot to ‘restore our freedoms’: How online ads are promoting coronavirus vaccination,” by WaPo’s Jeremy Merrill and Drew Harwell

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

DEPT. OF EXTREME WEATHER — “U.S. Crops Wither Under Scorching Heat,” by WSJ’s Kirk Maltais: “North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska all contain areas of extreme drought, according to data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. North Dakota and Minnesota, in particular, are experiencing near-record lows in soil moisture …

“The poor weather has caused the USDA to scale back its expectations for U.S. crop production in 2021—which, in turn, is causing domestic inventories to dwindle. In the USDA’s latest monthly supply and demand report, the agency pegged ending stocks for corn, wheat, and soybeans all at their lowest level since 2013.”

AT THE BORDER — “A Texas Sheriff’s Grim Task: Finding Bodies as Migrant Deaths Surge,” by NYT’s Simon Romero in Van Horn: “After working in oil fields, OSCAR CARRILLO eyed the stability of law enforcement or funeral work. As a border sheriff, he is doing both.”

PLAYBOOKERS

MEDIA MOVE — Christina Romano is now associate program producer for Hearst’s “Matter of Fact with Soledad O’Brien.” She’s previously created features for PBS, CNN, Yahoo News and others.

TRANSITIONS — Lauren Miller is now comms director at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics. She previously was senior adviser to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). … Jeanine Poltronieri is now general counsel and SVP for legal and policy affairs at the Internet Association. She most recently was assistant VP for federal regulatory at AT&T.

BIRTHWEEK (was Monday): Ed Mitchell