Playbook PM: Dems prepare to go it alone

From: POLITICO Playbook - Tuesday Sep 28,2021 05:27 pm

Sep 28, 2021

By Rachael Bade, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

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JUST ADDED — President JOE BIDEN’s domestic agenda is on the line this week, with a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill slated for a House vote Thursday. But moderate and progressive Democrats are still at odds over a larger, multitrillion-dollar spending package — with the left even threatening to tank Thursday’s vote if the latter isn’t finalized by then. Join Rachael on Wednesday at 11:45 a.m. for a pop-up virtual event featuring Rep. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.), the leader of the centrists urging his colleagues to take the win on BIF on Thursday, and continue working on the second package in the coming days. Watch live here starting at 11:45 a.m.

DEBT CEILING LATEST — In a Monday night phone call, Biden, Speaker NANCY PELOSI and Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER discussed using reconciliation to raise the debt ceiling, our Burgess Everett and Heather Caygle scoop this morning.

— The do-or-die date: Oct. 18. That’s Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN’s best guess for when the department could run out of money and trigger a default, she wrote in a letter this morning. That’s less than three weeks away. More from Caitlin Emma

First, Dems will make one last attempt to avoid having to go the reconciliation route.

— Pelosi said she could bring a clean debt-ceiling increase to the House floor as soon as today.

— Schumer said this morning he’ll ask for unanimous consent to raise the ceiling using a simple majority vote (instead of the typical 60 votes needed to circumvent a filibuster). “If Republicans really want to see the debt ceiling raised without providing a single vote, I’m prepared to have that vote,” he said.

— Their strategy: Make moderate GOP lawmakers squirm by divorcing the debt ceiling from any other partisan priorities — thus depriving them of a shield to explain their “no” votes. Democratic leaders believe that a clean debt-ceiling vote will give them the ability to hammer the GOP for failing to take care of this issue on a bipartisan basis — as has been done for decades — and now setting a new standard by forcing one party to do it alone.

But it appears they’ll have no choice but to resort to reconciliation.

— Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) said this morning that he’ll object to Schumer’s request for unanimous consent, meaning the debt-ceiling vote will not be able to avoid the filibuster unless reconciliation is invoked.

But there seems to be some discord among even Democratic leaders about this approach. Yes, Biden, Pelosi and Schumer discussed using reconciliation Monday, and this morning, House Majority Leader STENY HOYER talked openly about it with reporters. (Read Congress Minutes here about Hoyer.) But …

— The No. 2 Senate Democrat, DICK DURBIN (Ill.), called using reconciliation a “nonstarter” due to the lack of time. (Insert shrug emoji here …)

— Hoyer tweeted out a clarification of his remarks, which raised new questions about the plan of action: “Today I was asked whether reconciliation is an option to address the debt limit. It is certainly not the best option, nor the option we’re pursuing.”

One thought on the future: It will be interesting to see if this new standard bites the GOP down the line when they have to rase the debt ceiling without any Democratic votes, and their own right flank/most hardcore members won’t let them. Remember the GOP’s “default deniers”? They still exist, believing that it’s better to default than raise this borrowing cap.

Programming note: “Senate Democrats also might need to cancel a mid-October recess to raise the debt ceiling on their own via reconciliation,” Burgess and Heather note. Whomp, whomp!

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PULLOUT FALLOUT — Plenty of news this morning at the Senate Armed Services hearing where Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY and Gen. KENNETH MCKENZIE, commander of U.S. Central Command, faced angry lawmakers:

— McKenzie and Milley acknowledged (under oath!) that they recommended Biden keep at least 2,500 U.S. troops in Afghanistan — directly contradicting the president’s insistence in an ABC interview last month that he couldn’t recall anybody advising him to do so. More from Lara Seligman on the “remarkable testimony”

— Milley confirmed that just after the election, DONALD TRUMP ordered the U.S. to withdraw from Afghanistan by January 2021. (It was later rescinded.)

— Milley and McKenzie said the Trump administration’s agreement with the Taliban in Doha had a negative effect on Afghan forces.

— Milley defended the post-election calls to his Chinese counterpart — which some conservatives have called “treasonous” — saying they were necessary to reassure China that despite what Chinese intelligence was reporting, there was no reason to worry about an attack by the U.S. More from Andrew Desiderio

— Regarding his post-Jan. 6 call with Pelosi about Trump and the nuclear codes, Milley said, “I am not qualified to determine the mental health of the president of the United States.” His memo about the Pelosi call

Good Tuesday afternoon.

CONGRESS

PROGRESSIVES NOT BACKING DOWN (YET) — If Pelosi wants to get the left flank of her party on board to support the infrastructure vote Thursday, she still has some work to do — and not just with the Squad. “I am a hard f-ing no,” Rep. JARED HUFFMAN (D-Calif.) said this morning. Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) is a no without an agreed-upon framework for the reconciliation bill; Rep. JAN SCHAKOWSKY (D-Ill.) is a hard no without more progress; Rep. SHEILA JACKSON LEE (D-Texas) is undecided. T he Hill’s Scott Wong has more reactions … More from Sarah Ferris and Heather Caygle

FED UP — Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) announced she’d oppose Fed Chair JEROME POWELL’s renomination, calling him dangerous.

JAN. 6 FALLOUT — Rep. BENNIE THOMPSON (D-Miss.), chair of the Jan. 6 committee, said they’re issuing more subpoenas this week. Video

WHOA — The International Association of Chiefs of Police and the National Fraternal Order of Police put out a statement this morning explicitly saying that the police reform proposal that collapsed would not have “defunded the police” and would have actually strengthened them. That’s a pretty strong pushback to lead GOP negotiator Sen. TIM SCOTT (S.C.), who blamed the death of reform on Democrats trying to defund the police.

INTRODUCING CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO’s new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. GET A FIRST LOOK AT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

POLITICS ROUNDUP

EXISTENTIAL STAKES — WaPo’s Ashley Parker has quite the headline this morning: “As Trump hints at 2024 comeback, democracy advocates fear a ‘worst-case scenario’ for the country”

TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT — The White House is keeping a close eye on the Virginia gubernatorial race this fall, where Chris Cadelago reports they know Democrat TERRY MCAULIFFE needs to win. They fear that a Republican flip could spook Democrats in Congress and wipe out some of Biden’s political power. “The White House, Democratic National Committee and outside partners are closely coordinating their efforts and speaking almost daily … Just over a month before Election Day, they are planning to ramp up activity and engagement.”

2024 WATCH — Can LARRY HOGAN really compete in a GOP presidential primary in the age of Trump? The Maryland governor isn’t giving up hope — in fact, he’s doubling down on building out a national political network, reports Alex Isenstadt. Hogan’s hitting the road to compete with mainstream Republican candidates around the country, meeting with donors and speaking at prominent conferences. “Hogan said he saw an opening in the forthcoming primary for a Trump critic, and he added that he would not be dissuaded from running for president in the event Trump waged a comeback.”

TRUMP CARDS

LOOK WHO’S BACK — An arbitration decision has sided with OMAROSA MANIGAULT NEWMAN in Trump’s legal attempt to enforce an NDA against her, and ordered that his campaign pay her legal fees, per NYT’s Maggie Haberman. Though it likely can’t be appealed, it also doesn’t set any precedent as an arbitration decision. “Finally the bully has met his match!” Manigault Newman declared in a statement.

GRISHAM REVELATIONS — More stories based on former White House press secretary STEPHANIE GRISHAM’s new book, “I’ll Take Your Questions Now,” are emerging today:

— NYT’s Katie Rogers has plenty of details from Grisham on Trump sexually objectifying a young press aide “whom Ms. Grisham says the president repeatedly invited up to his Air Force One cabin, including once to ‘look at her,’ using an expletive to describe her rear end”; MELANIA TRUMP’s rage after the STORMY DANIELS news; Trump’s desire to evict the press permanently from the White House; and JARED KUSHNER, whom Grisham calls “Rasputin in a slim-fitting suit.” Plus: an appearance by the song “Memory” from “Cats.”

— WaPo’s Jada Yuan and Josh Dawsey zero in on Trump’s soft-touch approach to Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, including an encounter in which Grisham quotes Trump saying to Putin, “Okay, I’m going to act a little tougher with you for a few minutes. But it’s for the cameras, and after they leave, we’ll talk. You understand.” Grisham also apparently reveals that Trump cuts his own hair with a giant pair of scissors, and that his mystery trip to Walter Reed in 2019 was (seemingly) for a colonoscopy.

POLICY CORNER

CLIMATE FILES — Two goals are clashing for the Biden administration when it comes to solar panels: fighting climate change and bolstering domestic manufacturing. U.S. manufacturers are pushing the Commerce Department to impose tariffs on foreign panels, Gavin Bade reports, arguing that such a move would support more jobs at home and get tough on China. But doing so could torpedo the administration’s efforts to meet crucial emissions reduction targets.

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

AFGHANISTAN LATEST — The decision to hand over Bagram Air Base has emerged as a key political flashpoint in the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Now Lara Seligman has a detailed breakdown of how the military made that decision: Essentially, once military leaders lost their argument to maintain a small presence in the country, they decided in May that getting out of Bagram — and everywhere else — as quickly as possible would be safest for U.S. troops. And the White House went along with the Pentagon’s faster timeline.

— ANOTHER FAILURE: The U.S. has apologized for killing a civilian man and nine children in a drone strike. Now, a NYT visual investigation unravels another piece the military got wrong and hasn’t admitted yet: The Pentagon said the man’s vehicle had come from an “ISIS safe house,” but it turns out to have just been a family home.

FOLLOW THE MONEY — Banned from many traditional financial systems, far-right extremists like The Daily Stormer founder ANDREW ANGLIN are getting rich by turning to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. That’s what AP’s Erika Kinetz and Lori Hinnant reveal in a major investigation that traces the ways these figures are able to escape legal reckonings, disappearing from the real world and crossing borders to protect their online fortunes.

THE PANDEMIC

THANKS, JOE ROGAN — The strange conspiratorial effort to use ivermectin to treat Covid-19 — misinformation mostly promulgated by people who oppose scientifically proven tools to fight the pandemic, like vaccines — is having a real-world impact. NYT’s Erin Woo reports that shortages of the animal medicine are straining veterinarians, farmers and ranchers.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

OUT OF ORDER — A WSJ investigation by James Grimaldi, Coulter Jones and Joe Palazzolo found that 131 federal judges since 2010 “have violated U.S. law and judicial ethics by overseeing court cases involving companies in which they or their family owned stock.” Many of those cases could now be reopened/reassigned to other judges.

FOR YOUR RADAR — JARROD RAMOS, the man who killed five people at the Capital Gazette in 2018, was sentenced today to five consecutive life sentences without the possibility of parole. The paper’s Alex Mann and Lilly Price have more.

PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — “Nick Oza, Republic photojournalist, documentarian of the immigrant world, dies at age 57,” by the Arizona Republic’s Richard Ruelas: “Nick Oza, a two-time Pulitzer Prize-winning photographer who produced stark images of resilience and triumph in the face of natural and man-made adversity, has died. … He had been hospitalized since Sept. 3, when a single-vehicle car accident in Phoenix left him seriously injured.”

GENIUS GRANTS — The newest batch of MacArthur fellows were announced today, including Hanif Abdurraqib, Daniel Alarcón, Reginald Dwayne Betts, Ibram X. Kendi, Desmond Meade, Safiya Noble, Jesse Shapiro and Keeanga-Yamahtta Taylor. The full list and stories, via WaPo

STAFFING UP — The White House announced several new U.S. attorney nominations: Clare Connors for Hawaii, Zachary Cunha for Rhode Island, Michael Easley, Jr. for the Eastern District of North Carolina, Cole Finegan for Colorado, Sandra Hairston for the Middle District of North Carolina, Dena King for the Western District of North Carolina, Nikolas Kerest for Vermont, Kenneth Parker for the Southern District of Ohio and Delia Smith for the Virgin Islands.

TRANSITIONS — Sarah Drory is now press secretary for Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.). She previously was press assistant for Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.). … Former Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao is joining the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation’s Board of Trustees.

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