|
Presented by Better Medicare Alliance: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington. | | | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross | | | Our latest POLITICO-Morning Consult poll offers a good snapshot of the muddled state of American politics right now. For the full report, click here. Some highlights: Americans believe the country is on the wrong track … Question: Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right direction: 38%
Wrong track: 62% Biden’s approval is still underwater and stuck in the mid-forties … Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the job JOE BIDEN is doing as president? Total approve: 46%
Total disapprove: 51% But Biden’s “favorability” rating is higher than all other national political figures we tested … Joe Biden: 47%
Kamala Harris: 45%
Donald Trump: 41%
Mike Pence: 39%
Nancy Pelosi: 36%
Chuck Schumer: 28%
Mitch McConnell: 22%
Kevin McCarthy: 22% “Security issues,” defined in the poll as “terrorism, foreign policy and border security,” are breaking through as a major concern for voters … Question: Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic issues: 36%
Security issues: 19%
Health care issues: 12%
Seniors’ issues: 13%
Women’s issues: 6%
Energy issues: 4%
Education issues: 3%
Other: 7% Trump still dominates the Republican Party’s presidential field … Question (for Republicans and independents only): If the 2024 Republican presidential primary were being held today, for whom would you vote? Donald Trump: 47%
Ron DeSantis: 12%
Mike Pence: 12%
Donald Trump Jr.: 6%
Ted Cruz: 3%
Marco Rubio: 3%
Nikki Haley: 3%
Mitt Romney: 3%
Liz Cheney: 2%
Kristi Noem: 1%
Tim Scott: 1%
Rick Scott: 1%
Tom Cotton: 1%
Josh Hawley: 0%
Larry Hogan: 0%
Mike Pompeo: 0% Good Wednesday afternoon. This morning’s Playbook misstated the potential savings from the more aggressive versions of the Democrats’ prescription drug pricing reform plan. CBO pegs the total savings at about $500 billion. | | A message from Better Medicare Alliance: Seniors are counting on Congress to stand up for the health coverage they need and deserve. Learn more about how Medicare Advantage creates value for taxpayers and provides high-quality, affordable health coverage to a more diverse, more at-risk beneficiary population in our 2021 State of Medicare Advantage report. | | | KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE PRICE — On the inflation front, there are a couple of pieces of important news today: — The consumer price index rose higher than economists expected last month, increasing 0.4% in September and 5.4% year over year, per MarketWatch. It’s another indicator that price pressure isn’t likely to ease well into next year. — In response to inflation, Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment next year will be 5.9%, the largest jump in four decades. That’ll amount to a $92 increase in monthly payments. More from CNN That all points to two side-by-side problems for the administration: 1) The policy problem: Congested ports and kinks in the supply chain are already causing headaches for both retailers and consumers heading into the busy holiday-shopping season, Steven Overly reports — driving up prices amid shortages of consumer goods. — How Biden is responding: Biden is holding a meeting on the issue at the White House today, and the administration has tapped a ports czar to help fix the situation, but there are limited options and the window to act is narrow. — One move from the administration: The Port of Los Angeles will now operate 24/7, report the L.A. Times’ Chris Megerian and Don Lee . Almost half of the country’s imports come through there or the Port of Long Beach. Biden will announce the plan today as part of an effort to move thousands more shipping containers each week and clear some of the backlog. But it will take a while to ramp up to that level. — But there’s another cost issue facing the administration: Gas prices are currently the highest they’ve been at this time of year since 2014. “Top administration officials met Tuesday night to discuss rising gasoline and natural gas prices,” report Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobs and Annmarie Hordern. “Cabinet officials including Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM, Agriculture Secretary TOM VILSACK [and] Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN gathered as they try to align on how to confront the problem of high energy costs and rising inflation.” 2) The political problem: “Empty store shelves could undermine the administration’s economic recovery plans and weigh on consumer confidence,” Overly writes. “And memories of a disappointing Christmas could linger into 2022, with supply-chain problems expected to last much longer than many officials and economists expected just a few months ago.” — Mixed signals are fueling uncertainty about the state of the economy. Pandemic recovery. Pandemic relapse. Rising inflation. Less Fed support. All kinds of economic signals are coming at Wall Street these days, and the result is — among other things — a bumpy and uncertain stock market. That’s why there’s a sudden surge of chatter about the dreaded specter of “stagflation.” Yet, a note of caution before you write off Biden as JIMMY CARTER 2.0: “The comparison between today and the 1970s seems to break down with the ‘stag’ component of stagflation,” writes NYT’s Matt Phillips. “By almost every measure, economic growth is expected to be remarkably strong this year. … But predictions for growth are being dialed back.” RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES TOP-ED — Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) is out with an op-ed in Fox News today blaming delays in passing the reconciliation bill on lobbying from the pharmaceutical, health insurance and fossil fuel industries. Sanders strikes a populist note, railing against “the billionaire class” and “corporate elite.” And he still refers to the legislation as a $3.5 trillion bill multiple times. ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK — Democrats are getting down to the negotiating nitty-gritty now. If Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) forces his party to ax three of its four big family-oriented policies (affordable child care, the child tax credit, paid family leave and universal pre-K), what should they keep? NYT’s Claire Cain Miller posed the question to 18 experts. The winner? Universal, public pre-K. But the experts also warned that these policies work best in tandem and that Democrats would be wise not to pick just one. A NUMBER TO WATCH — A new CNN poll finds that 75% of the Democratic Party’s voters want an expansive reconciliation bill, compared to 20% who prefer a scaled-back version. A bigger bill wins support even from two-thirds of moderate and conservative Democrats. Among independents, 36% go big, 32% go small and 32% say Congress shouldn’t pass either. AD WARS — A new $10 million campaign from the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund’s One Nation arm will hammer Sens. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (D-Nev.), MAGGIE HASSAN (D-N.H.) and MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.) over their party’s spending plans, reports WaPo’s Michael Scherer. The TV, radio and digital ads have the tagline “It’ll cost you,” and the Arizona TV ad contrasts Kelly unfavorably with Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.). Watch the Hassan ad — And the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is out with a six-figure TV campaign urging Reps. ANGIE CRAIG (D-Minn.), ANTONIO DELGADO (D-N.Y.), TOM MALINOWSKI (D-N.J.), KATHY MANNING (D-N.C.) and DEBORAH ROSS (D-N.C.) to oppose the reconciliation bill, The Hill’s Karl Evers-Hillstrom reports. | | | | INTRODUCING CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO’s new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. GET A FIRST LOOK AT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | POLITICS ROUNDUP CASH DASH — Rep. VAL DEMINGS (D-Fla.) announced a major $8.4 million haul for her Senate campaign during the third quarter of 2021, per Florida Politics. — Rubio, Demings’ opponent, raised $6 million in Q3, per Fox News. — Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) took in $8.3 million, per Alex Isenstadt. — Cortez Masto raised $3.15 million. — NYT’s Shane Goldmacher breaks down the biggest Senate fundraisers thus far. FUNNY HOW THIS KEEPS HAPPENING — Another lawsuit from election conspiracy theorists — this time seeking to examine Georgia absentee ballots from 2020 — was tossed out this morning, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. DEMOCRACY DIGEST — Former Sen. JEFF FLAKE (R-Ariz.) is using leftover campaign cash to fund the Public Integrity Foundation, an Arizona nonprofit focused on researching and improving election processes, reports Axios’ Lachlan Markay. POLICY CORNER SCOTUS WATCH — As the Supreme Court considered whether to reinstate the death penalty for Boston bomber DZHOKHAR TSARNAEV today, the justices sounded divided along ideological lines, reports CNN’s Ariane de Vogue. The conservatives seemed ready to overturn the decision that erased his death sentence, while the liberals did not. ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL — Biden still hasn’t named his picks for two seats on the FCC, a delay that not only sets a new record but could threaten his policy priorities and hand the commission’s majority to Republicans by the end of the year. John Hendel reports that Democrats are baffled and frustrated by the White House’s slowness, which has the potential to imperil the party’s goals on net neutrality, internet billing transparency, broadband, mergers and more. (NOT) COMING TO THEIR CENSUS — Did the 2020 census miscount Black Americans? A pair of new analyses suggest that undercounts of Black communities may have been three to 10 times higher than they were a decade prior, reports WaPo’s Tara Bahrampour: “If the analyses are borne out, the higher undercounts could have profound implications for a wide array of federally funded services.” We’ll know more next year. BIDEN SAYS TO CUT BACK ON SALT — The FDA announced a major new recommendation today seeking to cut the amount of salt in Americans’ food by 12%, hoping to cut down on a major contributor to heart disease and other killers. The non-binding guidance to food makers won plaudits from public health experts, though it fell short of the government’s recommendations for daily salt intake. More from NBC … Hannah Farrow and Helena Bottemiller Evich with the breakdown BEYOND THE BELTWAY CLIMATE FILES — The world is moving on climate change, but not fast enough. That’s the takeaway from a new World Energy Outlook report by the International Energy Agency, which forecasts that fossil fuel use will start dropping within a few years. But governments around the world will have to do much more than their current policies to prevent catastrophic effects: The path we’re on right now would lead to 2.6 degrees Celsius of warming, much higher than the 1.5 degrees to which experts say we need to limit the rise. — The push to electrify the nation’s vehicles faces a big challenge beyond just making them: ensuring that the country’s electric grid is up to the task of fueling them. WaPo’s Will Englund has a deep dive into the issue, where the bipartisan infrastructure bill’s plans fall way short of the projected necessary federal investment over the next decade. — As extreme weather events become more common, they’re posing a major policy and political challenge to the nation’s governors — including in Northeast states that aren’t used to such disasters. Ry Rivard and Katherine Landergan examine the trend with a focus on New Jersey Gov. PHIL MURPHY and his reelection bid in the wake of Hurricane Ida’s September devastation. | | | | “A FOREIGN POLICY BUILT FOR WOMEN” – JOIN US THURSDAY FOR A WOMEN RULE CONVERSATION: Building a foreign policy agenda with women at the center has shown that it can advance broader social, economic and political goals. It also requires having women in influential decision-making positions. Join POLITICO Magazine senior editor Usha Sahay for a joint conversation with Ambassador Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley, the State Department’s chief diversity and inclusion officer, and Ambassador Bonnie Denise Jenkins, undersecretary for arms control and international security, focused on the roadblocks preventing more women from rising through the ranks of diplomacy and why closing the foreign policy gender gap matters. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD BORDER SONG — The U.S. will finally allow fully vaccinated people to cross the Canada and Mexico land borders beginning early next month, as The Detroit News’ Melissa Nann Burke reports. That’ll match the policy change for air travelers going into effect at the same time. TRUMP CARDS HAPPENING TODAY — The campaign finance trial of LEV PARNAS is commencing today in Manhattan federal court, where the former RUDY GIULIANI associate faces allegations of hiding and using illegal campaign donations. Parnas has pleaded not guilty. Reuters has a rundown THE PANDEMIC INCOMING — Biden’s employer vaccine mandate could be ready as soon as next week, NBC’s Shannon Pettypiece reports. ROLL UP OR ROLL OUT — Capitol Police officers who protect congressional leadership will have to get vaccinated or face reassignment, Roll Call’s Chris Marquette reports. CHOOSE YOUR NEWS — “An F.D.A. analysis suggests that J.&J. has not presented robust evidence for booster shots,” NYT … “FDA scientists strike favorable tone on J&J Covid booster shots ahead of vote this week,” CNBC MEDIAWATCH BOOK CLUB — The Daily Wire will launch DW Books in the spring, a conservative imprint in a publishing industry that’s increasingly hesitant to publish right-wing authors, AP’s Hillel Italie reports. Their slate will include books by BEN SHAPIRO, CANDACE OWENS, GINA CARANO and Sgt. JONATHAN MATTINGLY, one of the officers in the BREONNA TAYLOR shooting, who was dropped by Simon & Schuster in April. PLAYBOOKERS Eliot Nelson has launched a Kickstarter for “Political Arena,” billed as “the first truly in-depth video game about American politics.” MEDIA MOVE — Chris Bedford is now chief comms officer at RightForge. He’s also a senior editor at The Federalist. His piece about building “a second internet” TRANSITIONS — David Harbach will join O’Melveny as a partner in its white-collar and corporate investigation group. He most recently was on special assignment at The Hague, co-leading investigations into war crimes in Kosovo in the 1990s. … Joe Whitley is joining Womble Bond Dickinson as a partner, leading the firm’s white-collar and investigations team. He previously was chair of the government enforcement and investigations practice at Baker Donelson. … Carlos Jackson is joining Cornerstone Government Affairs’ federal government relations team. He most recently was VP of legislative affairs at America’s Essential Hospitals. … Sarit Catz is now an SVP at ATHOS Pr. She previously was a partner at Eldion. … Sakura Komiyama Amend is joining SKDK as a managing director. She previously was a U.S.-based comms executive for En+ Group. … Brendan Kelly is now manager of client success at Civitech. He most recently was the field director at the Alliance for Retired Americans. WEEKEND WEDDING — Abby Finn, manager of government affairs for The Ohio State University, and Justin Barnes, executive director of the Ohio Chamber Research Foundation, got married in Columbus, Ohio, on Saturday. The couple met volunteering on a 2016 campaign trip in New Hampshire, as the then-Hill staffers knocked doors for John Kasich’s presidential campaign. Pic … SPOTTED: Pat and Denice Tiberi, Ali Gormley, Whitney Daffner, Matt Kaido, Nate Zimpher, Michael McLean, Laura Engquist, Kelli Briggs and Olivia Shields. BONUS BIRTHDAY: writer Steve Stampley | | | | A message from Better Medicare Alliance:   Read more about the Medicare Advantage difference. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
