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Presented by Google: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington. | | | | | |  | | By Eli Okun and Garrett Ross | | | CORN VINDICATED ON MANCHIN PARTY SWITCH? — This morning, we gave you the backstory on Mother Jones reporter David Corn’s Washington-rattling scoop about Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) considering leaving the Democratic Party — a story that Manchin himself told our Burgess Everett was “bullshit.” Today, Manchin walked that back, revealing that he once told Democratic leaders he was willing to become an independent if he were ever an “embarrassment” to the party — but that “no one accepted that” offer. He also said that even if he became an independent, he’d still caucus with the Dems. In other words: Don’t expect a sudden Senate Majority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL anytime soon. More from Marianne LeVine and Anthony Adragna … Manchin’s full quote, via Fox News’ Kelly Phares DEAL OR NO DEAL? — Are Democrats close to finally nailing down a framework for the reconciliation bill? Party leaders and rank-and-file members sounded optimistic this morning even as the perennial question marks remain dangling over the heads of Manchin and Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.). — Fellow moderate Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.) said a deal is “very, very close,” per Fox News’ Chad Pergram. — How close? House Majority Leader STENY HOYER told reporters that the party aims to land a framework within 48 hours, per CNN’s Manu Raju. “We’ve rounded the turn, and we’re almost to the stretch,” Speaker NANCY PELOSI said, like a true Baltimorean at the Preakness, at her morning presser. “And we’re making great progress to our goal of securing a framework agreement for Build Back Better in a timely fashion.” — House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY, meanwhile, dismissed Pelosi as on a “farewell tour” and trumpeted the recent spate of senior House Dem retirements. WHAT COULD THAT DEAL LOOK LIKE? — We got some clues this morning. — Child tax credit: The speaker said that a one-year extension of the child tax credit is acceptable to her if it’s acceptable to President JOE BIDEN. — Climate change: She insisted that she’s “very satisfied [with] the path we’re on” to meet the administration’s climate goals. — Paid leave: WaPo’s Tony Romm reports that the White House has floated a roughly $100 billion program that would offer workers four weeks of paid leave (encompassing parental, family and sick leave) starting in 2024. And it wouldn’t be permanent. — Pay-fors: Pelosi reiterated that “the bill will be fully paid for” despite Sinema throwing a wrench Wednesday into many of the party’s plans to increase taxes on the wealthy and corporations. But Pelosi didn’t offer any specifics. “We’ll see what survives — prevails” on taxation, she added. (Our colleague Sarah Ferris notes that “the ‘fully paid for’ line is a huge, huge issue for frontline Dems. They’ve asked Biden directly to repeat that the bill WON’T cost anything as often as possible.”) — BUT, BUT, BUT … Manchin isn’t done raising concerns. He told reporters today that he’s not on board with programs whose pay-for revenue comes in over a longer time frame than its spending will last. “If it was important enough for us to have new revenue, adjust our tax code, then the program should last for that,” Manchin said. “If not, you’re not being genuine.” GETTING AHEAD OF THEMSELVES — Even as Democrats’ reconciliation bill remains far from a sure thing, a few members of Congress are already dreaming about the next one — they can use the maneuver again in 2022 for a new piece of legislation. Pelosi hasn’t ruled it out, but many members of her party are wary and weary in the midst of the current battle, Caitlin Emma reports . A third reconciliation bill could provide a vehicle for policy priorities cut in the ongoing negotiations — but with politics that are much trickier in the middle of an election year. Good Thursday afternoon. If you have a picture of the “hot beef sundaes” at today’s Senate GOP lunch, we’d love to see it. | | A message from Google: Google is driving industry-wide security transformation. Google’s Cybersecurity Action Team, the world’s premier security advisory team, was launched to advise governments, critical infrastructure, enterprises and small businesses on how to strengthen their defense against cyber threats. Learn more. | | | MORE (IR)RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES THE VIEW FROM 1600 PENN — Why doesn’t Biden just get all the key Democrats in a room and sort through their differences? The shuttle diplomacy is an intentional (and tried-and-true) strategy, writes NBC’s Jonathan Allen in a new analysis: “The idea is to limit ideological conflict between factions and use peer pressure to lean on recalcitrants in each group.” THE VIEW FROM THE BASE — WSJ’s Eliza Collins and Tarini Parti talked to more than 50 swing-state Democrats across the party’s ideological spectrum about the reconciliation bill. The overall takeaway: Democratic voters support a big bill, they’re not worried about the price tag, and they want Congress to get it done soon. SINEMATOGRAPHY — Five members of Sinema’s veterans advisory council have resigned over her positions on the reconciliation bill, voting rights and the filibuster, blasting her as “one of the principal obstacles to progress, answering to big donors rather than your own people,” report NYT’s Catie Edmondson and Luke Broadwater. The new Common Defense ad in which they’re featured: “These are not the actions of a maverick” ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK — For more than 30 years, Democrats have advocated giving the government more power to negotiate prescription drug prices. But now that they have power, it still looks like that proposal could be axed from the reconciliation bill — or at least shrunk down — given the opposition of a few key centrists. NYT’s Jonathan Weisman writes that it “could be the single most embarrassing defeat in the package.” Still, negotiations are continuing around narrower versions that could make it in. THE WHITE HOUSE CLIMATE FILES — Even if Biden can’t land a deal on the reconciliation bill, the White House is still scrambling to be able to show something at the U.N. summit in Glasgow. “[S]enior officials insist Biden won’t be showing up to the global climate summit empty-handed. … Still, Biden is applying increasing pressure on lawmakers to provide him something to point to,” write CNN’s Kevin Liptak and Jeremy Diamond. — Major new assessments from the administration today warn that climate change will pose significant global security risks, per WaPo’s Shane Harris and Michael Birnbaum. “Together, the reports show a deepening concern within the U.S. security establishment that the shifts unleashed by climate change can reshape U.S. strategic interests, offer new opportunities to rivals such as China, and increase instability in nuclear states such as North Korea and Pakistan.” HUAWEI OR THE HIGHWAY — TONY PODESTA got $500,000 from Huawei to lobby the White House last quarter, CNBC’s Brian Schwartz scoops. (In response, the White House slammed Huawei in a statement.) | | | | INTRODUCING CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO’s new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. GET A FIRST LOOK AT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | POLITICS ROUNDUP 2022 WATCH — A new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll finds Democratic Sen. MAGGIE HASSAN losing by 3 points in a head-to-head matchup against GOP Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU, and up by only 5 over retired Brig. Gen. DONALD BOLDUC. Perhaps most worrisome for Dems: Hassan’s favorable-unfavorable ratings have dropped to 33-51 (-18), though Sununu’s favorability (+5) has also fallen (he’s now at 41-36). More from WMUR … The poll 2024 WATCH — Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG has been holding informal dinners with top Democratic donors who are urging him to run against VP KAMALA HARRIS for president if Biden doesn’t seek another term, Insider’s Adam Wren and Robin Bravender report. “They’re driven in part by a lack of confidence in Vice President Kamala Harris’ performance so far, and some don’t think Buttigieg should wait in line behind Harris if Biden opts against running for a second term. Other dinner attendees think Buttigieg is better off waiting until 2028 or even later.” POLICY CORNER THE UNEMPLOYMENT PICTURE — New jobless claims last week fell slightly to 290,000, the lowest they’ve been since the pandemic began. Latest details from CNBC SHORT SUPPLY — Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove, Jill Shah and Brendan Case take a detailed look at what’s slowing the supply chain, and the difficulty for the Biden administration in finding quick fixes to complex, private-sector issues. One striking detail: Port truck drivers have to wait for hours, without being paid, to wait to pick up cargo. “The entire system, [one professor] said, is built around free labor from truck drivers as they wait for containers.” FED UP — Another piece of the Fed stock-trading scandal puzzle: The bank’s ethics unit issued guidance at the start of the pandemic encouraging officials to stay away from unnecessary trades, reports NYT’s Jeanna Smialek . “The email could pose further trouble for the Fed, which declined to provide a copy, because it shows that central bank ethics officers — and officials in general — were aware that active trading could look bad when the Fed was taking emergency action to try to save markets and its policymakers had vast access to sensitive information.” BEYOND THE BELTWAY DEMOCRACY WATCH — Texas Gov. GREG ABBOTT tapped JOHN SCOTT as the state’s new secretary of state, overseeing Texas elections. For at least a few days, Scott supported DONALD TRUMP’s attempt to challenge the Pennsylvania election results in November, reports the Texas Tribune’s James Barragán. | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | TRUMP CARDS MARK YOUR CALENDARS — @kyledcheney: “JUST IN: Trump, the Jan. 6 committee and the National Archives have proposed a schedule to [consider] Trump’s move to block release of WH records. Oct. 29: Thompson/NARA reply. Nov. 2: Trump reply. Nov. 4: Hearing before Judge Chutkan.” CONTEMPT LATEST — A.G. MERRICK GARLAND, testifying on the Hill today, told members of Congress that DOJ “will apply the facts and the law and make a decision” on whether to charge STEVE BANNON with criminal contempt of Congress if the House passes a resolution to that effect today, per CNN. Bloomberg with more from the House Judiciary hearing THE PANDEMIC GETTING A BOOST — A new study from Pfizer-BioNTech found that a third dose of their vaccine had 95.6% efficacy even during the spread of the Delta Covid-10 variant, the companies said today. (The findings haven’t been peer-reviewed yet.) WSJ’s Jared Hopkins has more. VALLEY TALK ANNALS OF INFLUENCE — Facebook spent a mammoth $5.1 million on lobbying in D.C. in the third quarter, placing the company in the top five across the city as it plays defense on several major fronts. Emily Birnbaum and Caitlin Oprysko break down the details. PLAYBOOKERS Lester Holt received the National Press Club’s annual Fourth Estate Award on Wednesday night. SPOTTED at a reception hosted by The Ascend Fund on Wednesday night in support of electing women across the aisle: Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), Yvette Alexander, Madalene Mielke, Evelyn Sanguinetti, Sharon Jackson, Jane Campbell, Abbie Hodgson, Lisa Roman, Lauren Kirshner, Ally Schmeiser, Chanell Autrey, Jill Barclay, Laura Howard, Mara Mellstrom, Danielle Moon and Allison Meyers. MEDIA MOVES — Joel Simon is joining the Tow Center for Digital Journalism at Columbia Journalism School as a fellow, focusing on creating a new global press freedom center at a U.S. university. He’ll also be a senior visiting fellow at Columbia’s Knight First Amendment Institute. He currently is executive director of the Committee to Protect Journalists. … Jhodie-Ann Williams will join NBC News Digital as an opinion editor for THINK. She previously was lead editor for personal essays at CNN. TRANSITIONS — Fred Guttenberg is joining Brady PAC as a senior adviser. He’s a prominent gun violence prevention advocate whose daughter, Jaime, was among the students killed in the mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla. … Monica Garcia is now managing director for comms at Stand Up America. She most recently was comms director for Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.). WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Will Dugan, a field producer in the Washington bureau of CTV, and Kristen McGrath Dugan, a senior manager at Deloitte Consulting, on Oct. 1 welcomed William “Liam” James Dugan, who came in at 8 lbs and 21 inches. Pic | | | | A message from Google:   Google keeps more people safe online than anyone else in the world with products that are secure by default. 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