Playbook PM: Your guide to Election Day 2021

From: POLITICO Playbook - Tuesday Nov 02,2021 05:14 pm

Nov 02, 2021

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It’s Election Day!

No doubt you’ve heard plenty about how today offers both parties a barometer of the political winds ahead of the 2022 midterms. And certainly there is that. But here’s a reminder of what’s at stake in some of the biggest races as voters go to the polls …

— THE MAIN EVENT: TERRY MCAULIFFE (D) vs. GLENN YOUNGKIN (R)

Virginia is where most of the national attention will be tonight — and for good reason, as national political players have focused on and fretted the results for months.

On the ground, via Richmond Times-Dispatch: “While national news outlets frame the outcome as a sign of the political mood ahead of next year’s congressional midterms, it will also serve as a Virginia referendum on Democrats’ control of state government.” The early votes: “Through Sunday, a total of 1.14 million Virginians had already voted — 858,646 in person and 283,662 by mail, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.”

As much as today’s results will paint a picture for Biden, former President DONALD TRUMP is crafting a custom image to his liking — regardless of the outcome, Marc Caputo writes . While Trump has backed Youngkin, he has not gone all out. “The underlying message is hardly subtle: if Youngkin wins, Trump will take credit. If he loses, he won’t take blame.”

— THE OTHER GOVERNOR'S RACE: PHIL MURPHY (D) vs. JACK CIATTARELLI (R)

New Jersey is the only other state in the country voting on its governor. Similarly, national watchers will view the results as a temperature check on Democrats. Biden won the state by 16 points last year, but faces poor polling numbers now.

On the ground, via NJ.com: “It’s the first truly competitive governor’s race in 12 years, with most polls showing Murphy with a single-digit lead. … Murphy is looking to buck history. No Democratic New Jersey governor has won re-election since Brendan Byrne in 1977.” The early votes: “Election officials disclosed Monday that about 700,000 of New Jersey’s 6.57 million registered voters had cast their ballots by mail or early voting as of Sunday.”

— ELSEWHERE:

•	Florida’s 20th Congressional District is voting on a crowded primary race to replace the late Rep. ALCEE HASTINGS in a firm Democratic stronghold. “South Florida is about to send a new member of Congress to Washington, D.C, and voters are responding by … not voting,” Sun Sentinel’s Anthony Man writes . “By the time in-person early voting ended Sunday, total turnout for early voting and vote-by-mail in the Democratic primary was 11.3%.”
•	In Ohio, the 15th Congressional District special election received a flurry of national attention in the final days, The Columbus Dispatch’s Haley BeMiller reports, as Biden jumped in to endorse Democratic state Rep. ALLISON RUSSO on Monday and former VP MIKE PENCE stumped for GOP coal lobbyist MIKE CAREY over the weekend.
•	And in New York City, CURTIS SLIWA, who has proved to have a flair for the dramatic, kept that up today. “Curtis Sliwa brought a special guest with him to vote on Tuesday: Gizmo, one of the 17 cats he lives with in a studio apartment. But Gizmo was denied entry to the polling site, on Manhattan’s Upper West Side, and Mr. Sliwa, the Republican nominee for mayor, was irate,” NYT’s Emma Fitzsimmons writes. “More problems soon followed, and Mr. Sliwa openly quarreled with election officials, shouting: ‘Arrest me!’ when they asked him to take off a red jacket with his name on it — an apparent violation of electioneering rules. … His ballot jammed in the scanning machine, and the machine had to be repaired. An election worker hurled an expletive at Mr. Sliwa while asking him to leave.”

— BOOKMARK THESE PAGES: Here are all the races POLITICO will be watching particularly closely and tracking results in real time: Virginia governor … New Jersey governor … Florida’s 20th district … Ohio’s 11th and 15th districts … NYC mayor

Our reporters and editors will also have live analysis of results here. If that’s not enough for you, here’s a look back at 15 races to watch, from our colleague Zach Montellaro.

— SOME OTHER THINGS TO KEEP AN EYE ON …

•	Today marks the “first wave of elections testing new Republican restrictions on access to ballots,” AP’s Christina Cassidy and Anthony Izaguirre write in Atlanta . “For election officials, it’s a chance to counter a year’s worth of misinformation about voting security and restore faith in democracy for those who still have doubts about last year’s presidential election.”
•	In dozens of races across the country, so-called “constitutional sheriffs” are seeking office while arguing “that their power to interpret the law is above any state or federal authority — even the president,” WaPo’s Kimberly Kindy writes . “The stakes go beyond local policing issues, as sheriffs who embrace the ideology have refused to enforce mask mandates and several have announced plans to resist President Biden’s impending rule that all businesses with 100 or more workers must be fully vaccinated against the coronavirus or face weekly testing.”
•	A major test for the “defund the police” movement: BuzzFeed’s Lissandra Villa writes from Minneapolis, where police are on the ballot with a measure that asks whether citizens want to swap a traditional department with a “Department of Public Safety.” “Now, with this amendment on the ballot 17 months after [ GEORGE] FLOYD’s death, Minneapolis will answer whether the push to reallocate police budgets has any political momentum. The brief amendment question has become a Rorschach test for Democrats and residents on what the path forward should look like.”
•	And here’s some water-cooler fodder: Former New York Mets manager BOBBY VALENTINE is running for mayor of Stamford, Conn., against CAROLINE SIMMONS, a four-term Democratic state representative who was endorsed by BARACK OBAMA, writes NYT’s Neil Vigdor.

Good Tuesday afternoon. If any cats or other pets show up at your polling sites, let us know!

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(IR)RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES

ABOUT TIME — We’re starting to get some clarity about the timing of the votes for the Build Back Better package (BBB) and bipartisan infrastructure legislation (BIF). Here’s the latest, via Nicholas Wu, Marianne LeVine and Anthony Adragna at Congress Minutes:

— In the House: Speaker NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.) told reporters that Dems could resolve their remaining differences on BBB today. Today, she told her caucus members that they’d vote "before we leave.” (Reminder: The House and Senate are scheduled to be in recess next week.)

— In the Senate: “Senate Majority Whip DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) said in a brief interview they would likely vote on the social spending bill ‘after next week’s recess.’”

— BUT BUT BUT: “Pelosi indicated members of her caucus are still debating immigration, drug pricing negotiations and climate change.”

NEW MOMENTUM ON DRUG PRICES — “Sen. ROBERT MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) is signaling he's on board with Democrats' emerging prescription drug deal, a major pickup for the effort to add a provision lowering drug prices to President Joe Biden’s social spending bill,” Burgess Everett writes at Congress Minutes.

CLIMATE FILES

A MAJOR ACCORD ON DEFORESTATION — Leaders from more than 100 countries at the COP26 summit signed a pledge to end deforestation by 2030, NYT’s Catrin Einhorn and Chris Buckley report . “President Biden said the United States would contribute billions to the global effort … The pact — which also includes countries such as Brazil, Russia and China — encompasses about 85 percent of the world’s forests, officials said.”

BIDEN ISSUES NEW METHANE RULES — As Biden touts his climate bonafides at the Glasgow summit, his administration announced a new set of rules to cut methane emissions, marking “the first time the federal government has moved to comprehensively tackle the seepage of methane across U.S. oil and gas infrastructure,” WaPo’s Dino Grandoni and Steven Mufson report.

DISINFO DIGEST — On Facebook, Brietbart holds the crown as the top producer of climate change denial posts, according to new data released by the Center for Countering Digital Hate today, WaPo’s Cat Zakrzewski reports.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

MEDIAWATCH

ANTI-TRUST THE PROCESS — “The Justice Department on Tuesday filed an antitrust lawsuit that seeks to block Penguin Random House’s proposed acquisition of rival publisher Simon & Schuster,” reports WSJ’s Brent Kendall and Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg.

POLICY CORNER

PERSONNEL NEWS — Adm. CHRISTOPHER GRADY, the commander of the Navy’s Fleet Forces Command, is Biden’s pick to become the new vice chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Paul McLeary reports. “Grady’s nomination has been expected for weeks, as Joint Chiefs Vice Chair Gen. JOHN HYTEN is due to retire Nov. 20. … The late nomination has been a concern among lawmakers. Any gap in the position will have some downstream effects as the Pentagon rewrites its Nuclear Posture Review and tries to speed up the process by which it buys new equipment.”

GUNS IN AMERICA — The White House is taking action on guns, specifically focusing on deaths by suicide from guns in a new initiative announced today, AP’s Michael Balsamo reports . “The plan calls for federal agencies … to create public awareness campaigns to encourage safer storage of guns and training for counselors, crisis responders and others. The effort also includes the Justice Department finalizing a rule that was first proposed in 2016 and would require stores that sell firearms to also offer secure gun storage and safety devices, the White House said.”

FED UP — The Federal Reserve is expected to announce plans to begin winding down its support of the economy after its historic investments to prop up the market during the pandemic, Victoria Guida reports. “What could come next — interest rate hikes — is causing angst among the Wall Street investors who finance the nation's debt and creating potential peril for Democrats on the 2022 campaign trail.”

— Meanwhile, Chair JEROME POWELL’s previous prediction that inflation would ease quickly is looking less and less likely, WSJ’s Nick Timiraos writes. “Economic data released over the past two months have cast doubt on parts of Mr. Powell’s thesis, which helps to explain why he has acknowledged less conviction that inflation will quickly return to the Fed’s 2% goal as supply-chain kinks work themselves out. In particular, recent data have pointed to some broadening in price pressures, a pickup in wage growth and a continued run of higher prices for certain goods that have already seen acute inflation this year.”

THE PANDEMIC

BACK IN BLACK (TIES AND DRESSES) — D.C.’s social scene is heating back up as party-goers try to navigate an ongoing pandemic and the urge to get back to business as usual, WaPo’s Roxanne Roberts writes. “Washington’s elite social scene requires masks, vaccination cards and other safeguards for the foreseeable future, in a city that still has an indoor mask mandate in place. Most of the galas and fundraisers that were canceled or streamed on Zoom in 2020 have resumed in person — outdoors or indoors — with open arms and an eye on the bottom line. Every invitation involves a calculation: What’s the risk, and how much do I really want to go?”

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PLAYBOOKERS

MEDIA MOVES — The Atlantic is rolling out a slate of nine new newsletters, bringing on writers including Charlie Warzel (who is moving over his “Galaxy Brain” newsletter from Substack), Molly Jong-Fast (who will write about politics), Tom Nichols (who will focus on international issues) and more. The announcement

TRANSITIONS — Heather A. Conley will be president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. She currently is senior VP for Europe, Eurasia and the Arctic at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. … Dan Roth is now senior director of comms at Nacha. He most recently was senior director of public affairs at the Beer Institute and is a Karen Bass alum. … Jake Bressler is now senior VP and head of digital at Beacon Media. He previously was VP of digital at A|L Media Strategy.