Playbook PM: An inflation headline Dems can get behind

From: POLITICO Playbook - Wednesday Nov 17,2021 06:03 pm

Nov 17, 2021

By Rachael Bade, Garrett Ross and Eli Okun

Presented by

A TRAGIC NUMBER — For the first time in U.S. history, 100,000 Americans died from drug overdoses in a single year. That sobering statistic — fueled by fentanyl and the pandemic — comes from newly released numbers from the National Center for Health Statistics. More from NYT’s Roni Caryn Rabin, who notes that overdose deaths in the U.S. have “more than doubled since 2015.”

TIMELINE TALK — All signs are pointing to the reconciliation package coming up for a vote in the Senate by the end of the year, Burgess Everett writes for Congress Minutes. That feeling was given a big boost today by comments from Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.). Schumer told reporters that the bill will “for sure” be put on the floor in 2021. Meanwhile, Manchin said, “I’m not in charge of the timing. Whatever they want to do is fine with me. If we're gonna vote, vote.”

Manchin’s comments in particular are noteworthy. Many Hill politicos have been watching him with eagle eyes after the latest inflation numbers showed prices continuing to skyrocket. Republicans have been hoping that Manchin will cut bait and run. But his comments suggest that’s unlikely to happen — but, to be fair, he didn’t say he’d vote for the bill, even though that’s certainly the expectation.

OVERINFLATED? — Following weeks of bad headlines about rising inflation, “economists and analysts in leading rating agencies” appeared to be tamping down on the panic and saying that Build Back Better and the bipartisan infrastructure bill won’t add to inflation — welcome news for Democrats amid Biden’s flagging poll numbers.

Two stories on this:

— From Reuters’ Kanishka Singh: “The two pieces of legislation ‘should not have any real material impact on inflation,’ WILLIAM FOSTER, vice president and senior credit officer (Sovereign Risk) at Moody's Investors Service, told Reuters. … CHARLES SEVILLE, senior director and Americas sovereigns co-head at Fitch Ratings, said the two pieces of legislation ‘will neither boost nor quell inflation much in the short-run.’”

— TOP-ED: Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s, writes for CNN: “The hair-on-fire discourse over high inflation is understandable, but it’s overdone. … My inflation outlook could be Pollyannish, but only if inflation expectations — what investors, businesses, consumers and economists think inflation will be in the future — rise. If there is a widespread view that inflation will remain high, workers will demand higher wages to compensate and businesses will ante up, believing they can pass along their higher costs to their customers. This vicious wage-price spiral was behind the persistently high inflation we suffered 30 years ago. But there is no evidence that this is happening today.”

Good Wednesday afternoon.

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IF YOU READ ONE THING TODAY — Natasha Korecki and Nahal Toosi have a harrowing account from inside the State Department in the weeks surrounding the Afghanistan withdrawal. “Interviews with more than half a dozen State Department employees in addition to government officials and advocates, as well as a review of internal administration emails POLITICO obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, reveal the desperation and disorganization that consumed frontline State Department employees.

“As they feverishly attempted to assist Afghans and Americans stranded in the war-torn country and fielded a crush of calls and emails — the inbox where the State Department directed Afghans to send Special Immigrant Visa applications crashed at least once — officials say they were unclear of their own authorities and what policies they were allowed to employ to help evacuate people. It all triggered mental health issues for some staffers, from which some are still attempting to recover, months later.”

As one State Department official put it: “This experience broke a lot of people, including me. We were all getting inundated by personal requests to help specific people from everyone we’ve ever known or worked with. And we were powerless to do anything, really. Feeling like you’re supposed to be the government’s 911, but knowing the call for help didn’t go very far beyond you was extremely demoralizing.”

(IR)RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES

WHAT’S IN THE SAUSAGE — Much of the Dems’ massive reconciliation package has been extensively reported. But its size has allowed plenty of lesser-known provisions to get tucked inside. Among them: “a $4.1 billion tax break for people who buy electric bicycles, $2.5 billion for ‘tree equity,’ another $2.5 billion to help ‘contingency fee’ lawyers recoup their expenses and a long-sought tax break for producers of sound recordings,” NYT’s Jonathan Weisman writes . “Many obscure provisions may emerge as subjects of ridicule, but Democrats are not shying away from their work. Every niche item has a constituency that regards it as central.”

PROMISES MADE … NOT KEPT? — According to a new analysis of the reconciliation package, Biden’s Build Back Better plan “breaks a key pledge from his 2020 campaign: that he would not raise taxes on individuals making less than $400,000 annually,” Washington Times’ Haris Alic writes . “An analysis by the Joint Committee on Taxation released Tuesday shows that the House version of Mr. Biden’s bill starts raising taxes as early as 2023 on middle-class families.”

More from the article: “Taxpayers making between $50,000 to $75,000 annually would see a 0.3% tax increase starting in 2023. For those making between $75,000 and $100,000, the tax hike would be 2.9%. Individuals making between $100,000 and $200,000 would see a net tax hike of 7.4% in 2023.”

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

ALL POLITICS

GOOD NEWS? — OR BAD POLLING? In a Congress Minutes blurb posted just minutes ago , our Sarah Ferris scoops that the DCCC told members today that they’re actually narrowing the gap with Republicans in battleground districts. The party’s campaign arm says that according to its own polling, they’re now down only two points in a generic matchup. That’s tighter than July, when the party’s polling had Democrats trailing the GOP by six points.

Take this with a grain of salt. It goes against many other generic ballot polls showing the GOP with double-digit leads right now.

BIG-BUCK HUNTERS — Sixteen Thirty Fund, a left-leaning secret-money group, spent a mammoth $410 million in 2020 to boost Democratic efforts to take down DONALD TRUMP and take control of the Senate, Scott Bland reports . “The Sixteen Thirty Fund’s multi-million dollar grants singlehandedly powered some other organizations on the left, and it also incubated other groups, as a ‘fiscal sponsor,’ that fought against Trump’s Supreme Court nominees, backed liberal ballot measures and policy proposals in different states and organized opposition to Republican tax and health care policies. Its massive 2020 fundraising and spending illustrates the extent to which the left embraced the use of “dark money” to fight for its causes in recent years.”

WHAT I MEANT WAS … — Sen. JOHN CORNYN told our colleagues Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine that he “would be surprised if Republicans tried to unseat” Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) in 2024.

But today, the Texas Republican tried to reel that comment back in, per NBC’s Frank Thorp. “I probably got out over my skis a little bit,” Cornyn said. “What I was thinking about was the fact that she enjoys pretty favorable ratings among Republicans in her state. Who knows what's going to happen in 2024. And what happens here in the Senate … one day you’re working with somebody, the next day you're trying to defeat them in the election.”

WATCH: Senate will battle over seven key states in 2022 midterms: Of the 34 states with Senate elections in 2022, there are seven very competitive states. Republicans need to gain just one additional seat to take control of the Senate. This week, Natalie Allison joins Ryan to break down what advantages Democrats might have heading into the 2022 midterms.

THE PANDEMIC

THE BIDEN BOOST — The Biden administration is launching a new initiative to partner with Covid-19 vaccine makers to expand their manufacturing capacity to produce an additional 1 billion doses per year, Adam Cancryn reports. “The new initiative is aimed at ramping up the vaccine supply needed abroad and comes as officials have sought new ways to … get 70 percent of the world’s population vaccinated by next September.”

TRUMP CARDS — In 2020, the Trump administration gave the International Development Finance Corporation $100 million in Pentagon funds to “finance the domestic production of strategic resources needed to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak, and to strengthen any relevant domestic medical supply chains,” NBC’s Laura Strickler reports. But the agency, which was “run by a college friend of JARED KUSHNER” so far has “failed to invest a single dime, according to a new government watchdog report.”

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

BLOWING IT — A whistleblower who has spoken to the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol attack fears that the panel might be going too easy on the U.S. Capitol Police, Betsy Woodruff Swan and Daniel Lippman scoop. “The whistleblower told POLITICO that he participated in a 90-minute interview with committee investigators last week, and that more Capitol Police personnel are scheduled to speak with the panel next week,” they write. “The panel’s tactics both before and during the interview had him worried the committee was too close with the Capitol Police Department to conduct an open and honest review, he said.”

JUDGMENT DAY — The so-called “QAnon Shaman” was sentenced today for his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report. “JACOB CHANSLEY, whose shirtless image on the Senate rostrum and menacing note to Vice President MIKE PENCE came to symbolize the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol, has been sentenced to almost three and a half years in prison, matching the harshest sentence handed down yet in the 10-month prosecution effort.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

PROCEED WITH CAUTION — On the heels of Biden and Chinese President XI JINPING’s virtual summit, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission — a panel of security and economic experts convened by Congress — “recommended that the U.S. take more aggressive steps to dial back commercial ties with China, warning of heightened national security risks,” WSJ’s Kate O’Keeffe reports.

OPENING UP AGAIN — The U.S. and China are planning to ease travel restrictions on media, allowing them to move between the two countries, CNN’s Steven Jiang reports. “The deal addresses one source of contention in strained bilateral ties following a lengthy virtual meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping on Monday. Under the agreement, the two governments will increase the validity of journalist visas to one year from the current three months. The authorities will also make such visas eligible for multiple entries, allowing reporters to travel internationally.”

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

PLAYBOOKERS

Sherrilyn Ifill is stepping down from the NAACP Legal Defense and Education Fund in 2022, per WaPo’s Jacob Bogage.

SPOTTED at Equality PAC’s fall gala Tuesday night: Reps. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), David Cicilline (D-R.I.), Mark Takano (D-Calif.), Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-N.M.), Sharice Davids (D-Kan.), Angie Craig (D-Minn.), Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.) and Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), Phil Tahtakran and Ryan McGinness, Amy Isbell, Josh Hurvitz, David Stacy, Alec French, JoDee Winterhof, Adelle Jackson, Julia Massimino, Ben Staub and John Michael Gonzalez.

SPOTTED at a party Tuesday night hosted by Stand Together for Neil Chilson’s new book “Getting Out of Control: Emergent Leadership for a Complex World” ($18.99 ) at the Consumer Technology Association’s Innovation House on Capitol Hill: Maureen Ohlhausen (who interviewed Chilson about the book), Jesse Blumenthal, Billy Easley, Taylor Barkley, Steve DelBianco, Carl Szabo, Jim Fellinger, Tiffany Moore and Michael Petricone.

MEDIA MOVES — Alex Daugherty is joining POLITICO as a transportation reporter and author of Morning Transportation. He previously was a Washington correspondent for the Miami Herald. … Irene Noguchi is joining the NYT as executive producer of Opinion Audio in December. She currently is head of audio at POLITICO. The announcement … Judah Taylor is joining WaPo as a multiplatform editor for the opinions section. He previously was a digital editor for POLITICO.

TRANSITIONS — Former CDC Director Robert Redfield is joining AM LLC as a senior medical adviser. … Beth George is rejoining Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati as a partner in the cybersecurity practice. She previously was acting general counsel for the Defense Department. … Keith Strubhar is joining Direct Impact as executive VP. He previously was managing partner at Tarpon Strategic.