Playbook PM: Will Biden’s big oil move really ease gas prices?

From: POLITICO Playbook - Tuesday Nov 23,2021 05:45 pm

Nov 23, 2021

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It’s official: The U.S. said today it will tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an attempt to drive down gas prices, part of a coordinated effort with China, India, Japan, South Korea and the U.K. More from CNBC

— But Bloomberg’s Devika Krishna Kumar and Sheela Tobben have a somewhat skeptical piece reporting that “it’s hard to say whether households will actually see much — if any — reprieve in time to prevent a brutally expensive holiday travel season.” Among the reasons: (1) It will take several weeks to get the oil; (2) markets had already priced in this possibility; (3) we don’t yet know what types of crude will come; and (4) peeved OPEC+ officials could negate the impact by halting their own production expansion.

— Though the White House knew it might not have a big effect, officials thought it was among the best of their limited options — and that coordinating with other countries would have more of an impact, report CNN’s Kate Sullivan and Betsy Klein.

— The move also places President JOE BIDEN in a tricky messaging spot, forced to pump more oil into the economy right now even as he calls on the world to move away from oil in the next several years. WaPo’s Annie Linskey writes that his efforts to bolster short-term oil production are rankling environmentalists, who warn of undercutting climate goals. Though the Biden administration says it can do both, the “conundrum illustrates the challenge facing the United States and other countries trying to shift away from fossil fuels: The near-term needs of their economies, and the pressures of domestic politics, still require cheap oil and gas.”

— Bloomberg’s Steven Dennis notes that part of the funding for the bipartisan infrastructure deal came from selling off some oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The shadow president isn’t mollified. In a statement that will surely be parsed for Build Back Better implications, Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) today described the SPR move as “an important policy Band-Aid,” but called on Biden to change his mind on the Keystone XL pipeline and “not jeopardize America’s energy security in the near term.”

New on the schedule: The White House said this morning that Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM will join press secretary JEN PSAKI at today’s briefing, per pooler Scott Bixby. Reminder: Biden is delivering remarks on the economy and prices at 2 p.m.

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SUPPLY CHAIN OF FOOLS — Oil prices are perhaps the highest-profile example of the country’s (and world’s) supply chain/inflation woes. But there’s plenty more to worry about. Two cool interactive features published today break down what’s really breaking down:

— NBC’s Phil McCausland examines how supply-chain disruptions, backlogs and rising prices are wreaking havoc in the market for seven items from sweatpants to wheelchairs to chicken tenders.

— Bloomberg puts it bluntly: “Every Step of the Global Supply Chain Is Going Wrong — All at Once”

SIGN OF THE TIMES — Dollar Tree said today that most of its prices will rise to $1.25 by the first quarter of next year, per CNN. The company said it wasn’t a reaction to inflation or other short-term conditions (but at least one analyst wasn’t convinced).

ADJUST YOUR NARRATIVES — Here’s the best economic news of the day for Democrats: The Joint Committee on Taxation revised its estimate of how the Build Back Better bill would affect tax rates. It now says the legislation would raise millionaires’ average tax rate by 3.2 percentage points in 2022, not lower it. The original finding that Democrats would be cutting rich people’s taxes had handed Republicans a potent attack line in recent days, but the JCT now says it was just a calculation error.

Good Tuesday afternoon.

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POLITICS ROUNDUP

ANNALS OF INFLUENCE — Forget K Street offices. POLITICO’s stalwart lobbying reporters Hailey Fuchs and Emily Birnbaum have a fun look at more than 20 townhouses they’ve identified around Capitol Hill that house business groups and other aspiring legislative influencers. The townhouses offer more casual (and cheaper) event spaces to schmooze lawmakers and Hill staff. And “after nearly two years of crickets, the townhouse lobbyist fundraising scene is now showing signs of life.” Plus details on the value of various lobbying outfits’ townhouses

FROM 30,000 FEET — WSJ’s Michael Bender, Alexa Corse and Joshua Jamerson take a broad look at an extraordinary dynamic in American politics: DONALD TRUMP’s big lie about the 2020 election has elevated concerns about voter fraud into a litmus test for the entire Republican Party. From the local level on up, the ramifications have reverberated throughout the nation’s political system — even as Washington Republicans privately acknowledge Trump lost, they report.

— The biggest consequence: “The message appears to be contributing to eroding confidence in the nation’s election systems.”

— Interesting nugget: The trio report that Trump has said privately he doesn’t think AL GORE should have conceded in 2000.

SPEAKING OF BUSH V. GORE … Though the late Justice JOHN PAUL STEVENS reached a deal with the Library of Congress for most of his case files through 2005 to be made public by last year, the Supreme Court has delayed their release because of the pandemic, CNN’s Joan Biskupic reports. When they are revealed, the files could help shed light on the landmark 2000 election decision, as well as cases on affirmative action, Guantanamo, LGBT rights and more.

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

STONEWALL HOLDING STRONG — The recent criminal indictment of STEVE BANNON has not helped the Jan. 6 committee get any more cooperation from MARK MEADOWS or DAN SCAVINO in their monthslong negotiations, report Kyle Cheney, Betsy Woodruff Swan and Nicholas Wu. Meadows and others appear to be waiting to see how Trump’s lawsuit plays out, but committee members aren’t optimistic about securing their testimony soon. Rep. ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) did say that the Bannon indictment has yielded cooperation from lower-profile targets, though.

THE WHITE HOUSE

TO SPEAK OR NOT TO SPEAK — Some Democrats are pushing the White House to take a page out of Trump’s book and have Biden speak to the press more often, NYT’s Michael Grynbaum writes . Since taking office, the historically garrulous Biden hasn’t sat for interviews with the NYT, WaPo, WSJ, AP … the list goes on. He’s done about one-eighth as many one-on-one interviews as BARACK OBAMA had at this point in his presidency. And some in his party are worried that Biden’s effectively ceding too much narrative control to Republicans.

NOT READY FOR LIFTOFF — A Pentagon assessment of Lockheed Martin’s new presidential helicopter deemed it unreliable in an emergency and not “operationally suitable” yet, postponing Biden’s use of the new chopper, Bloomberg’s Anthony Capaccio and Jennifer Jacobs report. The White House is still in the process of evaluating its safety. The September Pentagon report said the new helicopter — part of a $5 billion program to upgrade the government’s fleet — could be ready for more routine missions.

POLICY CORNER

FED UP — We have some clarity about the direction of the central bank’s monetary policy now that Biden has announced he’ll nominate Chair JEROME POWELL to another term (with LAEL BRAINARD as No. 2). But when it comes to regulating Wall Street, much will hinge on Biden’s choice of who will replace RANDAL QUARLES, report WSJ’s Andrew Ackerman and Orla McCaffrey.

THE PANDEMIC

MANDATE DEBATE — The Biden administration overnight filed papers asking a federal appeals court to lift a stay on its workplace Covid-19 vaccine mandate rule, per The Hill . It’s “the most significant legal move the administration has made” in the case in recent weeks. The administration argued that every day of delaying the rule would lead to multiple deaths from the disease.

LONG ROAD AHEAD — With the majority of the world still not fully vaccinated against Covid-19, the U.S. and other wealthy countries are scrambling to try to accelerate the timeline to get doses to underserved areas. And a Johnson & Johnson/Merck effort to speed up vaccine production that was touted by the Biden administration “now may not generate any usable shots until the spring,” Erin Banco, Adam Cancryn and Carmen Paun report for the first time. The big picture: “[T]he world still faces significant complications in vaccinating enough of the world to keep Covid-19 at bay and to prevent new, more-transmissible variants from emerging.”

TRUMP CARDS

IMMIGRATION FILES — A new investigation from WaPo’s Debbie Cenziper, Madison Muller, Monique Beals, Rebecca Holland and Andrew Ba Tran pulls back the curtain on the controversial 287(g) program, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement operation that gives state and local law enforcement authority to question and detain undocumented immigrants. Advocates said it would target serious criminals; critics warned it could expand to others as well. Now, having obtained internal ICE emails, WaPo reports: “Despite mounting concerns about discriminatory policing, the Trump administration aggressively recruited local law enforcement partners and courted sheriffs who championed similar views on immigration policy.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

SCOTUS WATCH — What could happen if the Supreme Court strikes down Roe v. Wade in the upcoming Mississippi abortion case? Reporting from Oxford, Miss., Reuters’ Lawrence Hurley writes that “large swathes of America could return to an era in which women who want to end a pregnancy face the choice of undergoing a potentially dangerous illegal abortion, traveling long distances to a state where the procedure remains legal and available or buying abortion pills online.”

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

PAGING IVÁN DUQUE MÁRQUEZ — WSJ’s Vivian Salama and Juan Forero scooped that the Biden administration will as soon as today remove its terrorist designation for the FARC, the prominent Colombian group. It’s a move “that would demonstrate American support for a fragile peace agreement with the guerrillas in Colombia.”

OFFSIDES — Former CIA officer KEVIN CHALKER spied for Qatar for years on FIFA and rival nations’ soccer officials as part of the country’s effort to get (and keep) the 2022 World Cup, AP’s Alan Suderman reveals in a new investigation. The story, he writes, is “the most detailed to date [that shows] Qatar’s use of former U.S. spies and provides a rare look into the world of former Western spies working in the Gulf for autocratic governments.”

PLAYBOOKERS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Jamie Jackson is joining House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer’s office as senior counsel. She previously was security clearance counsel for the White House Office of Presidential Personnel, and is a House Armed Services Committee alum.

MEDIA MOVES — Rebecca Kern will join POLITICO as a tech reporter covering online speech, misinformation, content moderation and broader technology policy. She most recently has been a tech and cyber policy reporter at Bloomberg Government. … Miki King is rejoining WaPo to lead its Arc XP software arm, per Axios’ Sara Fischer. She most recently was president of Genius Media Group, and is a former WaPo chief marketing officer and POLITICO alum.