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Presented by Amazon: The unofficial guide to official Washington. | | | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | BREAKING OVERNIGHT — The House voted 222-208 to hold MARK MEADOWS in contempt of Congress and make a criminal referral to the Department of Justice. Just two Republicans — ADAM KINZINGER (Ill.) and LIZ CHENEY (Wyo.) — voted for the resolution, seven fewer than the nine Republicans who supported the recent contempt of Congress vote regarding STEVE BANNON. More from Nicholas Wu for Congress Minutes — Elsewhere, Fox News hosts SEAN HANNITY and LAURA INGRAHAM on Tuesday night began to address their text messages to Meadows on Jan. 6 — and their subsequent coverage of the riot. (Their critics won’t be mollified.) SETTLING (MOST) FAMILY BUSINESS — It took them a while, but Democrats have finally dealt with most of the tricky debt and spending issues that prevented them fully focusing on the Biden legislative agenda. The Senate passed a debt limit increase of $2.5 trillion Tuesday afternoon, and the House followed suit just after midnight. Congress should be freed from addressing the issue again until 2023. A final vote on the long-stalled NDAA is likely in the Senate today. Congress has funded the government through mid-February. It shouldn’t exactly get a big pat on the back for doing the basics, but the three issues were all cleared with some degree of bipartisanship and less brinkmanship and drama than expected. The next big hurdle for Democrats? JOE MANCHIN. Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett expertly break down Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) role as the key to moving both President JOE BIDEN’s Build Back Better and voting rights legislation: “During Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER’s leadership meeting on Monday evening, Democratic senators hotly debated how to handle their two biggest unfinished tasks. Some Democrats say they should kick both issues until next year; others argue the party’s leverage over Manchin won’t improve over time and want action now. And Tuesday interviews revealed a party wrestling with how to clinch its top priorities. … “Manchin is not yet committed to the $1.7 trillion climate and social safety net legislation, nor does he support changing the Senate rules to push through an elections bill on a simple majority. He spoke with Biden Monday about the domestic spending bill and met with a trio of Democrats Tuesday to discuss voting rights and the rules changes needed to pass it, signs that the West Virginia Democrat is still open to casting his critical vote for both measures. “Manchin is expected to speak to Biden again soon and also discussed voting rights legislation in Tuesday’s full caucus meeting, according to attendees.” Some key quotes: — Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D-Ga.): “Voting rights should be the very next thing we do." — Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.): “There’s no policy reason they have to be linked, but they do come down to the same person.” — Schumer: “There’s a strong belief in the Senate that we can restore the Senate and at the same time deal with voting rights, and that’s what we’re aiming to do.” — Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.): “We want both of them, but voting rights has more of a time issue because there are states already developing their district mapping. If we don’t move quickly it could be too late.” — Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.): “There’s productive conversations happening about voting rights. Nothing’s landed yet. Just like there’s productive conversations happening on Build Back Better.” There’s no white smoke from the upper chamber yet about where Manchin will land on either issue. We’ve long been bullish that some version of the reconciliation bill will pass, even if it’s trimmed further. The odds for voting rights legislation are longer. But given Manchin’s continued reluctance to come around on either front after months and months of talks, the possibility that Democrats will fail to pass both bills is becoming more real. Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri. | | A message from Amazon: Amazon employees, their families and their communities have seen the impact of benefits that put them first. From an average starting wage of $18 an hour to free college tuition and health care on day one, learn about the company's commitment to employees. | | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — DOUG SOSNIK was an adviser to BILL CLINTON for six years, and for some dozen years he has written regular memos about national trends that have attained something of a cult following among political junkies. We know many of our readers are fans of his wonky missives, so we’re pleased to present Sosnik’s latest memo, “A Look Ahead to the 2022 Midterm Elections and Beyond,” exclusively to the Playbook audience. A key focus for Sosnik in determining the outcome of the midterms is where things stand in late summer of next year, when views about the economy and the direction of the country “harden” and it’s too late for the Biden administration to change them. That gives the president just six to eight months to turn things around. Pay attention to employment numbers (June 3, July 8, Aug. 5), inflation data (June 10, July 13, Aug. 10) and the University of Michigan consumer confidence data released July 15 and Aug. 12. Sosnik has a nice rundown and summary of what he calls the “Five Myths About American Politics in the Age Of Trump” that are well worth your time and attention: 1) DONALD TRUMP’s victory in 2016 was an aberration.
2) Demography is destiny, and that is good for the Democrats.
3) A higher turnout is always good for Democrats.
4) The Trump presidency has realigned the suburbs toward the Democratic Party.
5) Trump has pushed independents into the arms of the Democratic Party. On the 2022 Senate races, he focuses on the fact that Democrats could be lucky that the GOP is barreling toward nominating a series of out-of-the-mainstream candidates in primaries in several key states. There’s a nice clip-and-save primary calendar to keep handy: — Ohio (open, Portman): May 3 primary
— North Carolina (open, Burr): May 17 primary
— Pennsylvania (open, Toomey): May 17 primary
— Alabama (open, Shelby): May 24 primary
— Georgia (Warnock): May 24 primary/June 21 runoff
— Nevada (Cortez Masto): June 14 primary
— Arizona (Kelly): Aug. 2 primary
— Missouri (open, Blunt): Aug. 2 primary
— Wisconsin (Johnson): Aug. 9 primary
— New Hampshire (Hassan): Sept. 13 primary A few more tidbits: — On 2022 House races: “If the Republicans pick up a net of 35 seats next year — a distinct possibility — they would achieve their highest total of members in the House since 1929. However, the Republican win total could be somewhat tempered by the nationalization of our politics, in addition to their unexpected success in the 2020 House elections when they picked up a net of 14 seats.” — On 2022 governor’s races: “If the Republicans pick up any of the presidential battleground states in the industrial Midwest (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin), they will take total control of government in these states and, with this power, they could determine the voting procedures and counts in the next presidential election.” Read the whole thing | | | | A message from Amazon:   Amazon saw the need to do more. That’s why they increased their national starting wage in 2018 to at least $15 an hour.
But that was just the start. Learn More. | | | BIDEN’S WEDNESDAY (Eastern times): — 8 a.m.: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief. — 9 a.m.: Biden will leave the White House for Fort Campbell, Ky., arriving at 11:10 a.m. He’ll survey the tornado damage with an aerial tour at 11:35 a.m. — 12:05 p.m.: Biden will arrive in Mayfield, Ky., where he’ll get a briefing from local leaders at 12:25 p.m. and tour a neighborhood at 1:45 p.m. — 2:35 p.m.: Biden will leave Mayfield and head to Princeton, Ky., before touring a neighborhood in Dawson Springs, Ky. He’ll deliver remarks there about his administration’s response to the storms at 4 p.m. — 5:10 p.m.: Biden will leave Princeton and eventually arrive back at the White House at 7:30 p.m. Principal deputy press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle on Air Force One on the way to Kentucky. The White House Covid-19 response team and public health officials will brief at 11 a.m. THE SENATE is in. THE HOUSE is out. | | | | JOIN TODAY FOR A WOMEN RULE 2021 REWIND AND A LOOK AHEAD AT 2022: Congress is sprinting to get through a lengthy and challenging legislative to-do list before the end of the year that has major implications for women’s rights. Join Women Rule editor Elizabeth Ralph and POLITICO journalists Laura Barrón-López, Eleanor Mueller, Elena Schneider and Elana Schor for a virtual roundtable that will explore the biggest legislative and policy shifts in 2021 affecting women and what lies ahead in 2022. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | | 
PHOTO OF THE DAY: Lawmakers participate in a moment of silence for the 800,000 American lives lost to Covid-19 on Tuesday, Dec. 14. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | ALL POLITICS SURVEY SAYS — Three years out from the next presidential election, voters of each party are largely sticking by their 2020 men, at least for now, our latest POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows. On the Republican side, seven in 10 voters think Trump should probably or definitely run again. That’s compared to a less-than-commanding 63% of Democrats who think the 79-year-old Biden should seek reelection. Bad news for both men: A majority of independent voters are hoping neither runs, with 59% saying no to Trump and 67% saying Biden shouldn’t seek a second term. If Biden steps aside, his second-in-command would have a plurality of Democratic support, according to the poll. Thirty-one percent of Democratic voters said they would back VP KAMALA HARRIS, while 11% would support Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG. Warren and Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (N.Y.) both pick up 8% of support. Toplines … Crosstabs THE COVID OFF-RAMP — Democratic governors were already barreling straight into a perilous midterm election. But a building winter Covid surge is putting many of them in a greater bind. Now, Democrats are “searching for an off-ramp to the pandemic that allows them to sell a brighter future to voters next November,” Zach Montellaro reports in New Orleans. ONE BIG 2020 ELECTION REVIEW — The AP looked into the six battleground states where Trump attempted to dispute the 2020 election results and “found fewer than 475 [cases of potential voter fraud] — a number that would have made no difference in the 2020 presidential election,” Christina Cassidy writes . “Biden won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and their 79 Electoral College votes by a combined 311,257 votes out of 25.5 million ballots cast for president. The disputed ballots represent just 0.15 percent of his victory margin in those states. The cases could not throw the outcome into question even if all the potentially fraudulent votes were for Biden, which they were not, and even if those ballots were actually counted, which in most cases they were not.” THE PANDEMIC TAKING STOCK — POLITICO’s Recovery Lab is launching a new state-by-state pandemic scorecard, evaluating how well different parts of the country have handled the past 21 months. Among the findings: No state did well in every policy area. States that imposed more restrictions such as stay-at-home orders and mask requirements did experience lower rates of death and hospitalizations. But they also tended to have worse economic and educational outcomes. Check out the valuable and complex analysis here. | 
Annette Choi/POLITICO | A GRIM MILESTONE — The U.S. coronavirus death toll surpassed 800,000 on Tuesday — “a sad coda to a year that held so much promise with the arrival of vaccines but is ending in heartbreak for the many grieving families trying to navigate the holiday season,” AP’s Heather Hollingsworth reports. AND ANOTHER SURGE INCOMING? — “The omicron variant is already spreading rapidly in the United States and could drive a massive wave of infections as soon as January,” write WaPo’s Meryl Kornfield, Paulina Villegas, Andrew Jeong, Annabelle Timsit, Ellen Francis and Lena Sun. | | | | A message from Amazon:   750,000+ Amazon employees are eligible for fully funded college tuition. | | | CONGRESS LIBERTARIANISM MEETS DISASTER RELIEF — After Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) swiftly sought federal aid after the tornado that hit Kentucky this weekend, WaPo’s Mike DeBonis writes that the move “conjured memories of Paul’s own lengthy history of opposing congressional legislation written to address past disasters, including bills passed following hurricanes Sandy, Harvey and Maria directing billions of dollars of assistance to stricken Americans.” JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH CENTER-STAGE CHENEY — NYT’s Catie Edmondson and Luke Broadwater profile Cheney’s performance on the Jan. 6 committee: “In closed-door interviews held in a nondescript federal office building near the Capitol, Ms. Cheney has emerged as a leader and central figure on the panel, known for drilling down into the details of the assignment she views as the most important of her political career. She is well-versed in the criminal code and often uses language borrowed from it to make clear she believes the former president and others face criminal exposure.” CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW? — JOHN EASTMAN sued to block Verizon from handing over his phone data and messages to the Jan. 6 committee, per Bloomberg. The lawsuit TRUMP CARDS ANOTHER LAWSUIT SCRAPPED — A federal judge rejected Trump’s lawsuit that aimed to prevent congressional Democrats from obtaining information about the former president’s tax returns, Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report. The ruling “is a boost for the House Ways and Means Committee, chaired by Rep. RICHARD NEAL (D-Mass.), which has been seeking Trump’s tax returns since the middle of 2019.” TRUMP PROBE HEATING UP — Sources tell WaPo’s David Fahrenthold, Josh Dawsey, Shayna Jacobs and Jonathan O'Connell that Trump’s accountant DONALD BENDER recently spoke to a New York grand jury that’s investigating Trump’s finances. A former Deutsche Bank employee who handled loans to Trump, ROSEMARY VRABLIC, was also interviewed by prosecutors, they write. These latest moves “suggest prosecutors are seeking information about Trump’s finances from a small circle of outside partners who handled details of Trump’s taxes and real estate deals. Bender and Vrablic were never Trump’s employees, but they knew more about his company’s inner workings than many employees did.” — NYT’s William Rashbaum, Ben Protess and Jonah Bromwich write that the documents compiled by Trump’s accountants “could help answer a question at the heart of the long-running criminal investigation into the former president: Did he inflate the value of his assets to defraud his lenders?” | | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Elon Musk ripped into Elizabeth Warren after she tweeted that the U.S. should “change the rigged tax code so The Person of the Year will actually pay taxes and stop freeloading.” “You remind me of when I was a kid and my friend’s angry Mom would just randomly yell at everyone for no reason,” Musk replied. Then: “Please don’t call the manager on me, Senator Karen.” Followed by: “If you opened your eyes for 2 seconds, you would realize I will pay more taxes than any American in history this year.” And : “Don’t spend it all at once … oh wait you did already.” Cory Booker walked through the Senate subway “blasting Mariah Carey’s ‘All I Want For Christmas Is You’ from Spotify on his phone.” (h/t Andrew Desiderio) Bob Menendez was rushing to make a vote on the Senate floor when he slipped, fracturing and dislocating his shoulder. Andrew Cuomo was given 30 days to pay back his $5.1 million book deal after New York’s state ethics board found he’d used state resources to write the book. Luann de Lesseps of “Real Housewives of New York” fame dined and dashed at Le Diplomate, but ended up paying her bill after N.Y. Mag’s Shawn McCreesh called her publicist. The NYT published an “editor’s note” for the ages atop a story originally published last month about a Palestinian professor of poetry. OMICRON DASHES WHITE HOUSE HOLIDAY PARTIES — The White House is canceling its glitzy holiday party season in response to the Omicron spread, The Daily Mail’s Emily Goodin scoops. “President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden will host ‘Holiday Open Houses’ instead of cocktail parties for the holiday season, so visitors can see the decorations in the White House in a COVID-friendly way,” she writes. Michael LaRosa, Jill Biden’s spokesman, told Goodin it’s “disappointing that we cannot host as many people as the Bidens would like to,” but the administration will continue to abide by Covid protocols. SPOTTED at the White House: lawyer and former “The View” co-host Star Jones (h/t theGrio’s April Ryan). Ryan reports that Jones met with the VP for “30 mins catching up & talked policy that impacts women, girls and young people of color.” OUT AND ABOUT — Almost every White House correspondent and member of the Biden press team got together (under D.C. Covid guidelines!) at the JW Marriott for the annual White House Correspondents’ Association holiday reception Tuesday night. As per tradition, there was a Christmas poem themed for D.C., a speech from WHCA president Steve Portnoy and a little roast from White House press secretary Jen Psaki. — The Motion Picture Association and Bloomberg hosted a screening of “House of Gucci” at the MPA’s headquarters Tuesday night. After the screening, Bloomberg’s Peggy Collins sat down with Bloomberg’s Sara Forden to discuss her book on which the screenplay is based. SPOTTED: Charles Rivkin, Emily Lenzner, Sena Fitzmaurice, Cameron Normand, Andrew Reinsdorf, Kira Alvarez, Emorie Broemel, Wes Kosova, Anna Edgerton, Jackie Simmons, Mike Shepard, Heather Podesta, Stephen Kessler, Tammy Haddad, Giuditta Giorgio, Giuseppe Sarcina, Lamberto Moruzzi, Pascal Confavreux, Georgette Brammer-Hardy, Matea Gold, Jenn Molay, Michael Anthony, Berin Szóka, Christina Sevilla and Izzy Klein. — The Renew Democracy Initiative held a “Frontlines of Freedom” dinner Tuesday night at the Watergate, which featured an off-the-record conversation about Russian aggression, Ukraine and America’s role in protecting democracy. SPOTTED: Garry Kasparov, Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Heidi Heitkamp, Michael Steele, Rina Shah, Bill Kristol, Lucy Caldwell, Alex Vindman, Max Boot, Mona Charen, Linda Chavez, retired Gen. Stanley McChrystal, retired Gen. Michael Hayden, retired Lt. Gen. James Clapper, Bill Taylor, Matt Calkins, David Frum, Dmitri Mehlhorn, Annie Scranton and Alex Yergin. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The University of Chicago Institute of Politics is announcing its winter fellows: GOP strategist Mark Campbell, former San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz Soto, former Chicago inspector general Joe Ferguson, former MoveOn executive director Anna Galland, TOLONews’ Lotfullah Najafizada and journalist/author Sarah Smarsh. — John Campbell is joining Red Edge to launch its fundraising practice. He’s an alum of FreedomWorks and Prosper Group. MEDIA MOVE — Jen Friedman is now VP of comms at NBCUniversal. She most recently was managing director for public affairs at Blackstone. More from The Hollywood Reporter TRANSITIONS — Corinne Day is now deputy comms director for Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). She previously was media relations manager at the R Street Institute, and is an RNC alum. … Tom Gannon is now chief government relations officer at H&R Block, heading the D.C. office. He most recently was VP of public policy at Mastercard. … Wells Griffith is now a senior director for FTI Consulting’s strategic comms segment. He most recently was managing director and senior adviser to the CEO for energy at the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, and is a Trump NSC, NEC and DOE alum. … … Adam Golodner is now a senior adviser at WestExec Advisors. He previously was at Arnold & Porter, and is a Cisco and DOJ alum. … Alifair Masters is now deputy chief of staff for Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.). She previously was VP at HM Consulting. … Zach Farmer is joining the Council for Opportunity in Education as director of congressional affairs. He most recently was in Rep. Warren Davidson’s (R-Ohio) office, covering education, veterans and other issues. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Alex Schriver, EVP at Targeted Victory, and Tracey Schriver, SVP at the Bank Policy Institute, welcomed Virginia Lee Schriver on Monday. Pic … Another pic — Elizabeth Boylan, director of government and industry affairs at FMC Corporation, and Patrick Boylan, founder of Raconteur Creative, recently welcomed baby James. Pic — Natalie Buchanan Joyce, deputy chief of staff for member services to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and Sean Joyce, CEO of Atlas Crossing, welcomed Jameson Buchanan Joyce on Dec. 7. He came in at 7 lbs, 10 oz, is named after both of his grandfathers, and joins big sister Genevieve. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) … retired Gen. John Allen of Brookings … Ruy Teixeira (7-0) … Donna Brazile … POLITICO’s Isabel Dobrin, Mollie Parlini and Valerie Yurk … Winter Casey … Andrew Cote of Brinc Drones … Bill Knapp … Jim Dornan of Michael Steele’s Maryland gubernatorial exploratory committee … Erin Dwyer … Lauren French of Rep. Adam Schiff’s (D-Calif.) office and House Intel … Heather Booth … Tara Corrigan of the Messina Group … Tim Dickson … Jeff Le of Rhino and the Truman National Security Project … Anna Jager … Lenny Young of Rep. Julia Brownley’s (D-Calif.) office … Patrick Oakford … Fox News’ Griff Jenkins … Meridith Webster … Cheddar’s Kristen Scholer … Danyell Tremmel … Andy Polesovsky … Caroline Ponseti of the Herald Group … McCauley Mateja … Sarah Sullivan … Jan Eberly … Brian Haley … Maggie Gau … Carson Pfingston Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross. | | A message from Amazon: The Institute for Women’s Policy Research found that nearly 30 percent of women without access to paid leave will drop out of the workforce within a year after having a child, and one in five will not return for more than a decade.
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