Outlook remains dreary for Dems this week

By Tara Palmeri

WHAT’S ON TAP THIS WEEK — Welcome back to a four-day workweek in Washington. Today, Senate Democrats resume their doomed push on voting rights and election reform, taking up legislation that already passed the House. Expect more of the fiery speeches we’ve heard from both sides recently as Democrats open the debate.

A Senate Dem aide reminds us of this key bit of parliamentary procedure that will make this latest push on the long-stalled issue different: “Because Senate Democrats are using a legislative strategy that involves a ‘message,’ Dems are able to get around a Republican filibuster at the front end. … So this is the first time that the Senate will actually be debating voting rights.”

At 5 p.m., Senate Democrats are scheduled to meet for one of their final caucus meetings to pressure/shame JOE MANCHIN (W.Va.) and KYRSTEN SINEMA (Ariz.) on modifying the filibuster in front of all their colleagues.

The first roll call votes on the voting rights package are expected Wednesday. The rest is preordained:

What to really keep an eye on as this all plays out: Is there any significant momentum behind the scenes on a bipartisan voting and election reform package? Does President JOE BIDEN endorse that effort at his Wednesday news conference?

MORE: NYT’s Catie Edmondson with the latest state of play. And Sarah Ferris, Marianne LeVine and Nancy Vu write that Democrats are coming to grips with the “the looming election reform defeat” and “grappling openly with what to tell their voters when they come up short.”

WHAT’S NEXT FOR BBB? — Front-line House Democrats, eager to boost their prospects in November, are urging party leadership to break up Build Back Better into a series of votes on popular planks — even if it means giving up on one grand bill (and even if those bills have no shot of becoming law). But WaPo’s Marianna Sotomayor reports that leadership has been cool to the idea so far, while some front-liners want to focus more on selling the infrastructure law and other accomplishments.

“The tension was surfaced in a meeting early this month with House Majority Leader STENY H. HOYER (D-Md.), the second-highest ranking member of their caucus. Members pushed back when Hoyer, reflecting the continued view of House leadership, argued that breaking up the spending bill would mean abandoning the potentially transformative giant package, which he said still has a chance of passage.

“‘I don’t care,’ Rep. SUSAN WILD (D-Pa.) shot back, telling Hoyer that House Democrats should spend the year sending bills to the Senate with the hope that bipartisan deals could be reached on issues important to a broad range of voters. The meeting was described by two members on the call, who spoke anonymously to discuss private talks.”

DEPT. OF DRAPE MEASURING — You know it’s bad for Democrats when GOP lawmakers are so confident in their chances of winning the House that they’re already plotting plans for 2023. Two must-reads on that front:

— Olivia Beavers and Burgess Everett report that some “Republicans are mulling ways to collaborate with Biden on issues like trade, energy or tech; others are prepared to go scorched-earth as their party eyes the bigger prize of retaking the White House in 2024.” Don’t hold your breath for much bipartisanship: Even Republicans like Michigan Rep. PETER MEIJER (Mich.) tell our colleagues they don’t foresee much common ground.

— And everybody’s gearing up for an onslaught of investigations into the Biden administration if Republicans retake the House, Reuters’ Jeff Mason and Jarrett Renshaw report. There could be new probes on everything from HUNTER BIDEN to Afghanistan and vaccine mandates to the supply chain. That could prompt the White House to staff up its own teams to respond to the investigations. And don’t forget impeaching Biden: Some Republicans will pressure House GOP Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY to go there if he becomes speaker.

Good Tuesday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.

A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):

Progress is made in America and powered by natural gas and oil. Thanks to innovation and partnerships , U.S. methane emissions intensity fell nearly 60% in America’s largest producing regions since 2011, even as America produced more affordable and reliable natural gas. To accelerate emissions reductions, API supports the direct regulation of methane for new and existing sources.

Learn more about how America’s natural gas and oil is tackling methane emissions and producing energy to among the highest environmental standards worldwide.

DESANTIS’ MLK DAY SURPRISE — Political observers across Florida were caught off guard Sunday night when RON DESANTIS became the first governor in recent political history to submit a congressional map during the state’s redistricting process.

Adding to the intrigue — and pushback — was that the DeSantis-authored map diminishes the Black vote and was filed on the eve of MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. Day. Governors historically do not submit their own maps as part of Florida’s redistricting process, instead allowing lawmakers to pass their preferred draft, with the governor having veto power over the congressional plans on the back end.

“The governor clearly believes that he is the kingmaker and can do what he wants, and that’s why we are seeing this unprecedented move of him sending his version of what the congressional maps should look like,” Florida state Sen. SHEV JONES, a Black Democrat, told our Matt Dixon. “This map is not only unconstitutional, but it dilutes Black representation in Florida. To add insult to injury, the governor submitted this map all while tweeting a quote ‘honoring’ Dr. King.”

DeSantis’ map would cut in half the number of African American districts from four on current proposed congressional maps to two, while boosting the number of seats DONALD TRUMP would have won in 2020 to 18 from the 16 on the map currently being considered by the GOP-led Florida Senate. It would also wipe out the 5th Congressional District seat held by African American Rep. AL LAWSON (D-Fla.). His North Florida district includes the heavily Black Jacksonville urban core that was previously represented by African American Democrat CORRINE BROWN since the early 1980s.

“People were contacting me from all over when the map came out,” Lawson told Playbook on Monday night. “They were concerned about things like what it would do to places like Jacksonville’s urban core, which is African American. It does not sit well with people. For nearly 30 years it has had minority representation.”

While the Florida Senate is poised to pass its proposed congressional map — which is much more favorable to Democrats, and includes Lawson’s seat — ultimately DeSantis has to sign off on the final redistricting map. He has the ability to veto whatever is presented to him. “Nobody has commanded that orchestra like DeSantis,” said a GOP congressman from Florida. “It would be a hell of a flex if he gets this map.”

Some lawmakers are concerned DeSantis is signaling a veto if the maps do not get better for Republicans. In a Sunday night statement, DeSantis’ office said they have “legal concerns with the congressional redistricting maps.”

A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):

BIDEN’S TUESDAY:

— 10:15 a.m.: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief.

— 11:15 a.m.: Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive their weekly economic briefing.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at noon with infrastructure czar MITCH LANDRIEU.

THE SENATE will meet at noon to take up the measure passed by the House that includes the Freedom to Vote Act and the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act.

THE HOUSE will meet at noon, with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m.

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Yolanda Renee King, Arndrea Waters King and Martin Luther King III lead the annual "D.C. Peace Walk: Change Happens with Good Hope and a Dream" across the Frederick Douglass Memorial Bridge in Washington, D.C., on Monday, Jan. 17. | Samuel Corum/Getty Images

POLITICS ROUNDUP

FROM 30,000 FEET — If you want to know which way the political winds are blowing, look at how Gallup’s survey of Americans’ party preferences shifted over the course of 2021. Jeffrey Jones writes that more Americans identified with Democrats than Republicans by a massive 9-point margin in the first quarter, but by Q4 that number had pinballed to a 5-point GOP advantage. Both leads “are among the largest Gallup has measured for each party in any quarter since it began regularly measuring party identification and leaning in 1991.”

VOICES OF AMERICA — At the one-year mark, the AP has a series of illuminating mini-interviews with a variety of different voters across the country evaluating Biden’s tenure thus far. A Republican Nevada cattle rancher who likes some Biden agricultural moves (but will keep voting GOP); an Iowa Democrat who’s mostly been impressed; an Arizona Trump supporter who blasts the “career politician”; a Georgia Biden voter who gives him a C; and more. They’re worth reading.

Ron Brownstein in The Atlantic: “How Manchin and Sinema Completed a Conservative Vision” — examining the “triumph for Chief Justice JOHN ROBERTS in his four-decade quest to roll back the federal government’s role in protecting voter rights.”

INTERESTING READS — Washington Monthly’s new issue focuses on how Democrats can turn their dim fortunes around. Among the stories: a feature on the Maine Democrats who reelected GOP Sen. SUSAN COLLINS and why they don’t regret their vote, and a look at how some Democrats have been able to keep winning in rural and working-class white districts.

THE PANDEMIC

CLEANUP ON AISLE CDC — Amid widespread criticism over the confusion of some of the CDC’s pandemic messaging, Director ROCHELLE WALENSKY tells WSJ’s Sarah Toy that she’s planning to make the agency’s communications and data collection efforts better. “If you’re positive—you should probably stay at home,” she says of rapid coronavirus tests during an isolation period for the infected. “But a negative—that doesn’t mean you’re not contagious. And we needed to be very clear about that.”

TALKER — Jonathan Chait in N.Y. Mag: “School Closures Were a Catastrophic Error. Progressives Still Haven’t Reckoned With It.”

A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):

POLICY CORNER

UP IN THE AIR — In the latest turn of the dispute between airlines and the Biden administration over the rollout of a new 5G activation this week, top industry executives penned a letter Monday calling on officials to block transmission within two miles of runways, Daniel Lippman and Oriana Pawlyk report. They warned of massive flight disruptions otherwise. The letter

— Some top lawmakers echoed those concerns, with the likes of House Transportation Chair PETER DEFAZIO (D-Ore.) asking AT&T and Verizon to delay some of their 5G rollout, per Reuters.

TRUMP CARDS

TRUMP TEAM SEES THE HIDDEN HAND OF MITCH — A burgeoning rift over vaccines and political ambitions between Trump and DeSantis made headlines last week. But NBC’s Marc Caputo, Jonathan Allen and Peter Nicholas report that Trump aides “see a hidden hand at play: that of Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL. ” The speculation seems to be based mostly on the fact that DeSantis’ comments came on JOSH HOLMES’ podcast, but McConnell certainly would like to chart a different course for the GOP than Trump.

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT): “I heard some of the complaining about McConnell as a hidden hand in this. But DeSantis’s whole brand is tell-it-like-it-is, it’s not like someone is getting him to do something he didn’t want to.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

IRAN DEAL LATEST — As talks drag on in Vienna over reviving the Iran nuclear deal, Iran’s latest demand is a formal guarantee that the U.S. won’t pull out of the deal again as Trump did, WSJ’s Laurence Norman reports. The U.S. says it can’t legally commit to that without a treaty that would require two-thirds approval in the Senate.

Still, “Western diplomats say a pathway to a deal is possible, showing more optimism since December,” he reports, with negotiators looking at mid-February as a make-or-break moment to figure out if it’s feasible.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

A new Tech Oversight Project is launching to push for antitrust legislation aimed at Big Tech, with leaders Sacha Haworth and Kyle Morse planning “campaign-style” tactics to counter the lobbying efforts against reform.

Naomi Seligman, a former top aide to Eric Garcetti, told Los Angeles Magazine she felt “abandoned” by Senate Democrats who voted to advance his nomination to become ambassador to India. Seligman (and three other former aides) accused former Garcetti adviser Rick Jacobs of sexual harassment and said Garcetti looked the other way, which he denies.

Rand Paul canceled his subscription to DirecTV over its decision to drop OANN from its channel lineup.

Jim Obergefell, the LGBT rights icon whose name is famously affixed to the Supreme Court case that legalized same-sex marriage, is running for the Ohio state House.

Glenn Youngkin found plenty of pranks in the Executive Mansion.

IN MEMORIAM — Longtime CNN stage manager Jay Conroy died over the weekend. His colleagues paid tribute to him on air, via Deadline.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Matt Wolking is now VP of comms at Axiom Strategies. He most recently was comms director for Glenn Youngkin’s gubernatorial campaign, and is a Trump 2020 alum.

— Faith Vander Voort is joining TAG Strategies as managing director for their comms and public affairs shop. She most recently was comms director for Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), and is a Trump Interior alum.

— Aaron Whitehead and Rachel Pewitt are launching Resolve Campaigns, a new firm focused on general consulting and targeted advertising. They previously were both at Majority Strategies.

TRANSITIONS — Tom Erickson is joining GOP consulting firm OnMessage Inc. as project manager. He was a regional political director for the NRCC during the 2020 cycle and is Kristi Noem alum. … John Konkus is now director of government affairs at engineering and geospatial firm Woolpert. He most recently was senior manager for government affairs and strategy at AECOM, and is a Trump EPA alum. … Morning Consult is adding Scott Brave as lead consumer spending economist, Lori Helwing as financial markets economist, Todd Martini as managing director of marketing operations and Justine Coleman as content associate.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Nick Calderon, senior manager at Narrative Strategies, and Jackie Bacon, operations manager at Lawler, Metzger, Keeney & Logan LLC, got married Saturday in Quincy, Mass. They originally met through a friend at an after-work happy hour at Cotton & Reed rum distillery in NoMa. Pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Clarence Tong, head of federal affairs and policy at Arrival Automotive USA and an Obama DOE and Joe Sestak alum, and Alice Lin Tong, senior accounts principal at Moxie Media and a Mark Warner and Tim Kaine alum, recently welcomed Sloane Lin Tong. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas) … Brett Horton of House Minority Whip Steve Scalise’s (R-La.) office … Ben Jealous of People for the American Way … Martin O’Malley … CNBC’s Sandy Cannold … Lindsay Monaghan … Yagmur Cosar of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation … Irvin McCullough … Yudhijit Bhattacharjee of National Geographic … Kirk Bell … National Review’s John McCormack … Paul Equale … Adam Radman of Americans for Tax Reform … Gadi Dechter … Charlotte Fox of the International Women’s Media Foundation … Ryan Taylor of Forbes Tate Partners … Nan Powers Varoga … NBC’s Jane Timm … Josh Orton … Charlotte Fox of the International Women’s Media Foundation … Samara Yudof Jones … POLITICO’s Evan Gaskin … Kyle Peterson of Boldly Go Philanthropy … Fox News’ Jonathan Serrie … Ellen Eckert … Mercury’s Beth DeFalco … former Sen. Paul Kirk (D-Mass.) … former Reps. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) and Mike Michaud (D-Maine) … Laura (Maloney) Johnsen … CNN’s Sam Waldenberg … Ben Nuckels … Andrew Sullivan of Hudson Pacific … Jonathan Hayes … former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms … Allie Wright … Brian Callanan of Liberty Strategic Capital … WJLA’s Dave Lucas

Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.

Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.

A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):

U.S. natural gas and oil companies share with global leaders the goal of reduced emissions across the broader economy and, specifically, those from energy production, transportation and use by society. This includes further mitigating emissions from operations to advance additional environmental progress while providing the energy the world needs. Industry investments and initiatives like The Environmental Partnership have accelerated solutions across the industry - from leak detection and repair programs to innovative solutions to enhance monitoring and reduce flaring. We’re making progress and more must be done. U.S. methane emissions intensity fell nearly 60% in the largest producing regions over the past decade. Now it’s time to build on this progress through smart methane regulations for new and existing sources at the U.S. EPA. Learn more.

Follow us on Twitter

Rachael Bade @rachaelmbade Eugene Daniels @EugeneDaniels2 Ryan Lizza @RyanLizza Tara Palmeri @tarapalmeri

Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family

Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook

View all our political and policy newsletters

Follow us

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Please click here and follow the steps to .