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Presented by Amazon: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington. | | | | |  | | By Garrett Ross and Eli Okun | | | After months of brutal polling and generally negative headlines on a range of fronts, President JOE BIDEN closes this week with a three-headed gust of wind behind his sails: 1. The January jobs report: Many economic wonks, market watchers and even White House aides were expecting a dreary jobs report with this morning’s release of January’s numbers. “Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones predicted an average of about 150,000 jobs added for the month, in what would be the lowest amount added in a year. Some economists predicted job losses, of up to 400,000,” WaPo’s Eli Rosenberg writes. Instead … - The Labor Department issued massive upward revisions on the November and December numbers: “The government now says that employers added 647,000 jobs in November, up from the 249,000 reported previously, and 510,000 in December, up from 199,000,” per NYT. That’s an additional 709,000 more jobs than previously reported.
Looking ahead: What can we expect from the economy as the Omicron wave recedes?
- “More than 3.6 million Americans were absent from work because of illness in January, more than at any prior point in the pandemic,” notes NYT’s Casselman. “That’s more than 2 percent of the entire workforce.”
- “Each successive wave of the virus is having a smaller and smaller impact on activity and labor demand,” BRIAN COULTON, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, told Reuters.
- If activity could persist during the wave, then when it passes, both consumer spending on in-person services and overall growth should continue to improve “at an accelerated pace, at least for the bulk of this year,” DAVID BERSON, the chief economist at Nationwide Insurance told the NYT. “After that, the crystal ball gets very hazy.”
2. The Syria raid: On Thursday, Biden trumpeted a successful counterterrorism operation. In remarks at the White House, he called the mission — which resulted in the death of ISIS leader ABU IBRAHIM AL-HASHIMI AL-QURAYSHI as well as a dozen women and children — a “testament to America’s reach and capability.” After the chaotic and bungled pullout of American forces from Afghanistan, this gives Biden something of a foreign policy feather to put in his cap. It also comes as reports indicate in “recent months [al-Qurayshi] had been plotting a comeback” including “a second act for the violent Islamist self-declared caliphate that had terrorized the region and, along with its affiliates, other parts of the world until its destruction three years ago,” per WaPo’s Joby Warrick and Souad Mekhennet. 3. The forthcoming Supreme Court pick: While the president hasn’t yet formally selected a nominee to replace retiring Justice STEPHEN BREYER, he has an opportunity to notch a big win with his appointment. Polling shows that Biden’s pledge to nominate a Black woman to the bench is largely supported by voters (and overwhelmingly by the Democratic base). BUT, BUT, BUT: While the week has delivered Biden some positive signs, he isn’t out of the woods yet. Domestically, there is still the major problem of a policy agenda that is stalled in Congress. Can he pull a new package out of the ashes of Build Back Better that delivers on some of Democrats major priorities before the midterms? Internationally, the Russia-Ukraine standoff continues. Two good reads on that front:
- Can the administration help broker a stand-down from Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN? Reason to hope: “Although more than 100,000 Russian troops still hover near Ukraine and weeks of talks have led to no major concessions by either side, at least Russia and the West keep talking, and for some experts that’s a reason for cautious optimism,” AP’s Vladimir Isachenkov and Matthew Lee write.
- Alexander Ward writes that the administration on Thursday “bumbled the message, raised the hackles of a skeptical press, and bullied the conversation into a Bush-era ‘you’re either with or against us’ false dichotomy,” which “speaks to a communications shop that seems frustrated when journalists don’t buy their line and that’s straining against a real current of Russia-friendly positions spouted by right-wing figures in the U.S.”
THE 30,000-FOOT QUESTION: How much will any of this change Biden’s political fortunes?
- Consider this: The most recent POLITICO/Morning Consult poll showed a 43% approval rating for Biden, with 35% of respondents saying that “things in the country are going in the right direction.” Those numbers are pretty mediocre. But consider this: one week earlier, those figures stood at 42% and 32%, respectively. If the movement in those numbers is real — and, critically, if this week’s good news for Biden bolsters them further — it’s not hard to imagine similar improvement in the coming weeks.
- By this time next month, we’ll be a few days removed from Biden’s first State of the Union address, and should have a better idea of Biden’s standing then. (FWIW, Trump saw a slight uptick in his approval rating after his first SOTU in January 2018.)
Happy Friday afternoon.
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Watch his story here. | | | CHENEY AND KINZINGER GET BACKUP — Sens. MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah) and BILL CASSIDY (R-La.) pushed back against the RNC’s effort to censure Reps. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) and ADAM KINZINGER (R-Ill.) for their work on the Jan. 6 select committee. — Romney tweeted: “Shame falls on a party that would censure persons of conscience, who seek truth in the face of vitriol.” Reminder: Romney’s niece, RNC Chair RONNA MCDANIEL, helped to broker the censure and a related measure that will allow the national party to assist Cheney’s primary opponent. — Cassidy alsosummed up his thoughts in a tweet , albeit with a more off-the-cuff tone: “The RNC is censuring Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger because they are trying to find out what happened on January 6th - HUH?” Notably, “both men voted to convict former President DONALD TRUMP during his second impeachment for inciting the events of Jan. 6,” Anthony Adragna writes for Congress Minutes. FIGHTING FAUCI — The newest star of GOP attack ads ahead of the midterms is none other than ANTHONY FAUCI. And perhaps his staunchest adversary has been enlisted to drive the point home. “‘I’ve stood strong against the mandates of Dr. Fauci, but I need help. That’s why I’m endorsing MIKE GIBBONS for Senate,’ Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) says in a new TV ad for Gibbons, who’s running in a crowded Republican Senate primary in Ohio,” Stephanie Murray writes. In Pennsylvania, MEHMET OZ has deployed an anti-Fauci ad and even “gone so far as to challenge Fauci to a debate, ‘doctor to doctor,’ according to a campaign spokesperson. … It’s hard to know precisely how many are using anti-Fauci messaging since the doctor’s image appears in some ads without his name being explicitly spoken in the ad transcript.” CONGRESS THE ANTI-CHINA BILL SHOWDOWN — The House passed its COMPETES Act today, but “even some supporters acknowledge that much of the House bill — stuffed with Democratic trade priorities to increase supply chain oversight, expand tariffs and tighten U.S. trade laws — is unlikely to become law,” Gavin Bade and Sarah Ferris report. “That’s because it will need to be reconciled with a more modest, bipartisan Senate version in negotiations where the upper chamber will hold most of the leverage. And it’s unclear how quickly that can happen, even as pressure mounts within the Democratic Party to deliver the president a legislative win.” UNION FOR CONGRESSIONAL STAFF ROLLS OUT — The Congressional Workers Union officially announced its effort to “unionize the offices and committees of the United States Congress” this morning. ( The full statement) The unionization push is already finding support among some progressive members. Rep. ANDY LEVIN (D-Mich.) announced on Twitter that “at the request of the new union, next week we will take legislative action to afford congressional staff the freedom to form a union — a fundamental right of all workers.”
| | | | DON’T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO’s new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | MEDIAWATCH WSJ TARGETED IN MASSIVE CYBER ATTACK — “News Corp was the target of a hack that accessed emails and documents of some employees, including journalists, an incursion the company’s cybersecurity consultant said was likely meant to gather intelligence to benefit China’s interests,” WSJ’s Alexandra Bruell and Sadie Gurman report . “The attack, discovered on Jan. 20, affected a number of publications and business units including The Wall Street Journal and its parent Dow Jones; the New York Post; the company’s U.K. news operation; and News Corp headquarters, according to an email the company sent to staff Friday.” ALL POLITICS DEMS SIGH WITH RELIEF ON REDISTRICTING — Most states have already finished their new district maps, “but state and federal courts will direct the drawing of some 75 congressional districts in at least seven states in the coming months, marking a new phase in the process before the first 2022 primaries begin,” Ally Mutnick writes . “Taken together, the court interventions have eased Democratic fears about redistricting as they sweat over a tough midterm political environment. So far, the decisions have validated the party’s state-by-state legal strategy and, critically, offered a surprising reprieve from several Republican gerrymandering attempts before a single election could be held under the new lines.” THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN — Oz is the first GOP Senate candidate in Pennsylvania to go negative in an ad campaign, attacking his fellow Republican hopeful DAVID MCCORMICK over the former hedge fund CEO’s ties to China. But Oz’s own history shows similar connections. “During much of its 12-year run on television, ‘The Dr. Oz Show’ had a lucrative sponsorship deal to promote the products of Usana Health Sciences, a company whose largest single market is China, where it also makes some of its goods. Oz also exported his popular show to China, and made business trips there, according to a POLITICO review of public records, YouTube videos and past press releases,” Daniel Lippman and Holly Otterbein report.
| | | | A message from Amazon:   | | | POLICY CORNER BACK TO SCHOOL — The Biden administration is focusing on nutrition in schools again, aiming to return to the standards set by former first lady MICHELLE OBAMA, which were largely dropped by the Trump administration and amid the pandemic. “What USDA is rolling out today is a so-called bridge rule to help schools slowly get back to meeting basic nutrition rules over the next two school years,” Helena Bottemiller Evich writes. “The rule imposes slightly stricter limits on sodium, requires more whole grain-rich items to be served (think hamburger buns and breading on chicken) and keeps allowing schools to serve 1 percent flavored milk, but it staves off any bigger changes for a few years.” ADMIN. WEIGHS ASKING FOR MORE PANDEMIC AID — The White House is considering whether to ask Congress for additional federal funding to aid pandemic recovery as its reserve starts to empty out. “While top officials say they are confident in their ability to weather the latest surge, they have started to explore whether more money might be needed to protect the public against any future variants,” WaPo’s Tony Romm reports. “The issue is captured in documents that the Biden administration privately has shared with congressional lawmakers, which The Washington Post obtained on Thursday. … By the Biden administration’s accounting, nearly all of the dollars in the HHS program, known as the Public Health and Social Services Emergency Fund, have been allocated or obligated in some way, a budgetary term that essentially means the money is locked up in contracts or other formal commitments.” JUDICIARY SQUARE HAPPENING TODAY — The Federalist Society is convening a two-day conference in Florida and brought in a who’s who of conservative speakers. Former VP MIKE PENCE will deliver a keynote address, Florida Gov. RON DESANTIS and former Trump press secretary KAYLEIGH MCENANY will hold a conversation and Supreme Court Justice NEIL GORSUCH will participate in a conversation with one of his former law clerks. Separately, there is a panel titled “The end of Roe v. Wade?” “What Gorsuch says Friday night will only be known to the organization’s guests. The media is barred from listening to his remarks,” WaPo’s Mariana Alfaro writes. “While Gorsuch will not participate on the Roe panel, or share a stage with the GOP leaders, his attendance with major figures close to Trump has stirred questions about the court’s impartiality and the insistence of the justices that it remains nonpartisan.”
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | OLYMPICS SO MUCH FOR THAT BOYCOTT — “For all the talk of a diplomatic boycott, Chinese leader XI JINPING has managed to attract a globe-spanning roster of presidents, royals and other dignitaries to the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics,” AP’s Adam Schreck reports from Beijing . “The fact that most of them represent countries that are unlikely to win any medals — if they’re even competing at all — doesn’t seem to matter. What does, from Beijing’s perspective, is presenting an image that China has emerged as a global power whose authoritarian style of government can go head-to-head with a world dominated by the U.S. and its fellow democracies.” PLAYBOOKERS TRANSITIONS — Blue Wave is adding Samantha (Sam) Peterson and Ryan Baukol as partners. Peterson, who will lead new digital practices, most recently was VP at New Blue Interactive, and Baukol previously was president of Ryan Baukol Consulting. … David Aron is now a counsel in Jones Day’s financial markets practice. He most recently was special counsel in the division of data at the CFTC. … JJ Carola is joining FlexPoint Media as a digital content specialist. He previously was on Rep. Lee Zeldin’s press team (R-N.Y.) on both the official and campaign sides. … … Kathy Bañuelos will be SVP for state government affairs at the Motion Picture Association. She currently is VP for government affairs at NBCUniversal. … Will O’Brien will be special assistant to the president and CEO at the United States Institute of Peace. He previously was associate director of program strategy and culture at the Atlantic Council. … Trident DMG is adding Taylor Pearson as a senior account manager (previously a CBSN booking producer) and Gil Connolly as an account manager (previously on the Senate Environment and Public Works press team). BIRTHWEEK (was Tuesday): Amy Sterner Nelson of The Riveter
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