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Presented by Amazon: The unofficial guide to official Washington. | | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | SUNDAY MORNING BIPARTISANSHIP — It was Throwback Sunday on CNN this morning, as two senators from opposing parties appeared together on “State of the Union” with Jake Tapper and spoke like reasonable adults. Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska) — who are actual, real-life friends, as we chronicled in Playbook Deep Dive last year — talked about how they got the bipartisan infrastructure deal passed, and their ongoing work to overhaul the Electoral Count Act — which Manchin said will “absolutely” pass. (Also: Manchin endorsed Murkowski for re-election, and Murkowski said she will back Manchin if he runs again in 2024.) Here are some other nuggets: — Murkowski said the bipartisan ECA group is taking a “Goldilocks Approach” — searching for a “just-right” compromise that is somewhere between those (on the left) who say that ECA reform isn’t enough without expansive laws codifying federal voting rights, and those (on the right) who fear the wrath of DONALD TRUMP and say that any ECA reform is too much. — Manchin again signaled that Build Back Better is dead. “As it has been presented over, what, the last seven, eight, nine months, that bill no longer exists,” he said. — But more significantly, Manchin laid down a demand for what he’ll need in order to be willing to pass certain elements of BBB in a smaller package: Regular order. Translation: Any movement could be months off; hearings and markups take time! “My biggest concern and my biggest opposition [is that BBB] did not go through the process,” Manchin said. “Whether Lisa votes for it or not, being a Republican, she should have at least the opportunity to have input. It should have gone through the committee. These are major changes that are going to change society as we know it, and those changes should [get] a hearing, a markup … They have to have input.” — Manchin said he has spoken with Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER about Schumer’s public refusal to tamp down suggestions that Manchin and Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) should get primaried by the left — and basically double-dog dared Schumer not to back his re-election: “No way, shape, or form, will MITCH MCCONNELL or Chuck Schumer not support their caucus. It just doesn’t happen.” Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. GRIM FORECAST FOR UKRAINE — The latest U.S. intelligence and military assessments of the dire situation in Ukraine have big write-ups this morning in both the WaPo and NYT. Here’s what you should know: In briefings to Congress this week, U.S. officials “described to lawmakers five options that [Russian President VLADIMIR] PUTIN could take, depending on the scope of his ambitions,” report NYT’s Helene Cooper and David Sanger . - Options range from mounting a coup that would overthrow Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, to a full-scale invasion to take over the entirety of Ukraine.
Roughly 70% of the forces Russia needs for a full-scale invasion are already in place, according to Biden administration officials. - In the past two weeks, the number of Russian battalion tactical groups dispatched to the Ukrainian border has jumped from 60 to 83. Each group has roughly 750 troops, notes WaPo.
What would a full-scale Russian invasion look like? Per NYT, the potential human costs could include: - The deaths of between 25,000 and 50,000 civilians, 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian troops and 3,000 to 10,000 Russian troops.
- Between 1 million and 5 million refugees, “with many of them pouring into Poland.”
Worth noting: - “European officials tend to be more skeptical that Mr. Putin would try to take the country in a large-scale invasion,” write Cooper and Sanger. “Some believe that he would seek to take the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where a grinding proxy war has been underway since 2014.”
- Still, “the size of the buildup makes it clear it’s more than a bluff,” reports WaPo. They cite a “Western security official” who “cautioned that Putin is putting so much political and economic pressure on Ukraine … that the government could fall even without a full invasion.”
Further reading: (1) “U.S.-Led Air Bridge of Weapons to Ukraine Seeks to Shore Up Kyiv’s Ability to Resist Russia,” by WSJ’s Brett Forrest; (2) “U.S. airborne infantry troops in Poland amid Ukraine tension,” by AP’s Monika Scislowska and Czarek Sokolowski; (3) “Sorry, Mr. Putin. Ukraine and Russia are Not the Same Country,” by Serhy Yekelchyk for POLITICO Magazine
| | A message from Amazon: Amazon to pay full college tuition for front-line employees—a total investment of $1.2 billion.
Amazon’s more than 750,000 operations employees in the U.S. are eligible for fully funded college tuition, including cost of classes, books, and fees.
As a part of this investment, Amazon will fund full college tuition as well as high school diplomas, GEDs, and English as a Second Language (ESL) proficiency certifications for all front-line workers. Learn more. | | | THREE TOP SUNDAY READS … 1. Is Biden an asset or liability in the midterms? Democrats are grappling with how closely to align themselves with the president in their 2022 campaigns, wary that the unpopular president could drag them down, report WaPo’s Sean Sullivan and Marianna Sotomayor. Sens. MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.) and RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D-Ga.) wouldn’t say whether they want Biden to campaign with them. But Rep. ELAINE LURIA (D-Va.) and Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (D-Nev.) said they’d welcome him. Meanwhile, Biden is reportedly very interested in the midterms and already mapping out his travel for the year. 2. The RNC blowback continues… on the right. The National Review published a much-discussed editorial on Saturday calling the RNC’s censure of Reps. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) and ADAM KINZINGER (R-Ill.) “both morally repellent and politically self-destructive.” “Fair-minded people can, of course, criticize some of the responses to January 6 ,” it reads, in part. “But the RNC has issued a statement, purportedly in the name of the entire party, denouncing ‘a Democrat-led persecution of ordinary citizens engaged in legitimate political discourse’ and ‘Democrat abuse of prosecutorial power for partisan purposes.’ This will, quite predictably and not wholly unreasonably, be read as an argument that the action of the mob was nothing but ‘legitimate political discourse’ and that nobody should be prosecuted. … To the extent that the party did not intend this as the meaning — and RNC chair RONNA MCDANIEL , already doing damage control, says it was not meant that way — its wording is political malpractice of the highest order coming from people whose entire job is politics.” 3. Conservatives’ new cause celebre in Washington is Big Board, a bar on the H Street corridor that was closed by D.C. officials for refusing to abide by a citywide mandate that restaurants check the vaccination status of patrons. NYT’s Aishvarya Kavi profiles the second life of a shuttered bar that suddenly finds itself in the political hot seat. SUNDAY BEST … National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN on the timing of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, on “Fox News Sunday”: “We are in the window. Any day now, Russia could take military action against Ukraine, or it could be a couple of weeks from now, or Russia could choose to take the diplomatic path instead.” — On negotiations with Russia, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “We're prepared to sit down with the Russians, alongside our allies in NATO and other partners in Europe, to talk about issues of mutual concern in European security. … But what we're not prepared to negotiate are the fundamental principles of security that include an open door to NATO for countries who can meet the requirements.” — On the Nord Stream 2 pipeline: “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward. And Russia understands that.” — On China’s role in the Russian tensions: “We believe that Beijing will end up owning some of the costs of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and that they should calculate that as they consider their engagements with the Russian government in the next couple of weeks.” MARC SHORT, former chief of staff to former VP MIKE PENCE, on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” trying to thread a needle on Republicans designating Jan. 6 as “legitimate political discourse”: “From my front-row seat, I did not see a lot of legitimate political discourse. But … in talking to some members of the RNC, I think there is concern that there are people who were there peacefully protesting, who have been pulled into this — what I think has more become a prosecution by the Jan. 6 committee — and feel like they're being unfairly treated.” — On Trump’s suggestion that the VP can overturn an election: “Of course, there's nothing in the 12th Amendment or the Electoral Count Act that would afford a vice president that authority. It’s why no vice president in 200 years has ever used that authority, and it's certainly not one that I think conservatives or Republicans would want KAMALA HARRIS the ability to say she's going to reject votes from Texas or Wyoming or any other state heading into 2024.” — On JOE BIDEN being legitimately elected: “[T]he [Trump] campaign had opportunities to bring that evidence up until December 14, and didn’t. And so I think at this point you have to assume that he was duly elected, and the reality is that there was not enough significant fraud that was presented that would have overturned any of those states’ elections.” Sen. JOHN BARRASSO (R-Wyo.) on whether he agrees with former Pence that he did not have the authority to overturn the 2020 Election, on “Fox News Sunday”: “I voted to certify the elections. I will tell you: I’ve been at 15 events in Wyoming in the last week. Last night, 800 people at a Boys and Girls Club dinner, this never comes up. … People in Wyoming want me to focus on the future, not the past. That is where I'm focusing.” — On the censure of Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.): “You know, Liz and I disagree. I voted against the Jan. 6 commission, voted against impeachment twice. We're going to have a very spirited primary here. … Liz is going to have to travel the state and make her case to the voters of Wyoming if she intends to get reelected.”
| | A message from Amazon: As the largest job creator in the U.S., Amazon’s investment in free skills training can have a huge positive impact on hundreds of thousands of families across the country. | | | BIDEN’S SUNDAY — The president will leave Wilmington, Del., at 1:45 p.m., arriving back at the White House at 2:50 p.m. VP KAMALA HARRIS’ SUNDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule.
| | | | HAPPENING THURSDAY – A LONG GAME CONVERSATION ON THE CLIMATE CRISIS : Join POLITICO for back-to-back conversations on climate and sustainability action, starting with a panel led by Global Insider author Ryan Heath focused on insights gleaned from our POLITICO/Morning Consult Global Sustainability Poll of citizens from 13 countries on five continents about how their governments should respond to climate change. Following the panel, join a discussion with POLITICO White House Correspondent Laura Barrón-López and Gina McCarthy, White House national climate advisor, about the Biden administration’s climate and sustainability agenda. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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Local residents attend the all-Ukrainian training campaign "Don't panic! Get ready!" near Kyiv, Ukraine, on Sunday, Feb. 6. | Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | POLITICS ROUNDUP BANNON SLAMS PENCE — After Pence called out Trump in a speech at a Federalist Society event and reiterated that he did not have the ability to overturn the results of the 2020 election, former Trump strategist STEVE BANNON took to his “War Room” show to respond to Pence: “You’re gonna carry this thing eventually to your grave, because it is a mark of shame and you are a stone-cold coward.” ( Video from CNN) TOP-ED: A DEFENSE OF ‘BOTHSIDEISM’ — Damon Linker in The Week takes on the recent fad of bashing reporters or journalists who try to understand and convey to readers the thinking behind both sides of an argument. “If ever there was a moment when drawing hard distinctions and rendering severe moral judgments would seem to be necessary, it's now,” he writes. “Yet the opposite may in fact be true. Maybe the present — more than other, less rancorous moments — cries out for greater efforts at understanding ‘both sides.’” 2022 WATCH — On Saturday, the Pennsylvania GOP voted not to endorse candidates ahead of the crowded Senate and gubernatorial primaries, reports Holly Otterbein. It was a bit of a blow to JEFF BARTOS and DAVE WHITE, the Senate and gubernatorial candidates, respectively, who were seen as most likely to earn the blessing. This is the first time the state party hasn’t endorsed a candidate in decades, per the Philly Inquirer. THE NEW POLITICS OF RACE — Trump and some other Republicans are trying to redefine racism in America today as an affliction that primarily targets white men, WaPo’s Cleve Wootson Jr. reports — and the battle over identity, race and status has ramped up in light of Biden’s pledge to put a Black woman on the Supreme Court. “This diverging definition of racism — often coupled with imagery, symbolism and quotes from the civil rights and other movements — reflects deep and often partisan divisions about what, if anything, needs to be done to produce a more equitable America.” HMM — “Miami-Dade Mayor DANIELLA LEVINE CAVA is asking prosecutors to investigate claims of ‘voter fraud’ after elderly residents in Little Havana said their party affiliations were changed without their knowledge,” Miami Herald’s Martin Vassolo writes. JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH INSIDE THE COMMITTEE — The House Jan. 6 committee is acting more prosecutorial than a typical congressional panel, aiming to pressure DOJ to bring the criminal charges the committee can’t, report NYT’s Michael Schmidt and Luke Broadwater . In “employing aggressive tactics typically used against mobsters and terrorists,” the committee has turned to tools like “link analysis, a data mapping technique that former F.B.I. agents say was key to identifying terrorist networks in the years after the Sept. 11 attacks.” But critics warn that the approach could backfire if the investigation fails to unearth bombshells — or if Republicans retake the House and deploy similar tactics in future proves. NBC: “A Jan. 6 suspect died. Now the FBI has to prep for conspiracies.”
| | | | A message from Amazon:   | | | POLICY CORNER SCHOOL WARS — Lawmakers in “at least a dozen states” are working on bills “to increase transparency around school curricula,” the next step in a battle over what is taught in classrooms, WSJ’s Scott Calvert writes . “The bills, introduced by Republican legislators, would in some states allow taxpayers to sit in on classes or make staff professional development sessions open to members of the public. For instance, a bill pending in the Indiana legislature would require school officials to post detailed information about instructional material and fulfill parental requests for certain material within 30 days. It also would require school officials to create parent-led curricular advisory committees, among other provisions.” N.Y. Mag: “Does Pre-K Actually Hurt Kids?” TRUMP CARDS GETTING SHREDDED — The Trump White House’s penchant for illegally tearing up documents has been known since POLITICO reported on it in 2018 . But now WaPo’s Ashley Parker, Josh Dawsey, Tom Hamburger and Jacqueline Alemany have a new look at the widespread practice, given the Jan. 6 committee’s attempts to recover many Trump papers. “Trump’s shredding of paper was far more widespread and indiscriminate than previously known and — despite multiple admonishments — extended throughout his presidency, resulting in special practices to deal with the torn fragments,” they write. And some were lost forever. THE WHITE HOUSE NOMINATION TRAVAILS — The White House is trying to save embattled FDA commissioner nominee ROBERT CALIFF, with top officials calling senators to try to win their support, WaPo’s Rachel Roubein and Laurie McGinley report.
| | | | DON’T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO’s new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Queen Elizabeth II marks her Platinum Jubilee today. Even now, after 70 years on the throne, she remains “ hooked on political gossip.” (Same, tbh.) A man was arrested for allegedly abducting Michael Bloomberg’s housekeeper at gunpoint from his Colorado ranch. IN MEMORIAM — “Todd Gitlin, a Voice and Critic of the New Left, Dies at 79,” by NYT’s Katharine Seelye: “He earned his stripes in the antiwar movement of the 1960s. In his later years, he was often critical of his erstwhile kindred spirits.” OUT AND ABOUT — Adrienne Arsht hosted her 80th birthday bash Friday night at her newly renovated mansion on Chevy Chase Circle. The evening included specialty cocktails, a full dessert room, and violinists performing on recently installed catwalks connecting different wings of the home, overlooking the grand ballroom. SPOTTED: DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson and Grace Nelson, British Ambassador Karen Pierce, EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis, Spanish Ambassador Santiago Cabanas Ansorena, José Andrés, Capricia Marshall, Andrea Mitchell, Michael LaRosa, Phil Rucker, Mary Jordan and Kevin Sullivan, Carol Leonnig, Bob Barnett and Rita Braver, Robert Pullen and Luke Frazier, Fred Kempe, Lloyd and Ann Hand, Jonathan Capehart, Amy Baier, Francis Collins, U.S. Ambassador to Panama nominee Mari Carmen Aponte and Jason Marczak. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Liza Rebold is now working on the government innovation team at Bloomberg Philanthropies. She is an alum of Ray McGuire’s NYC mayoral campaign and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s (D-Fla.) office. TRANSITION — Josh Connolly is joining LinkedIn as senior manager of U.S. policy and economic graph. He previously was chief of staff for Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.). HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.) and Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) … WSJ’s Jerry Seib … Tom Brokaw … Indiana Dem Chair Mike Schmuhl … Fox News’ Kevin Corke … WaPo’s Jenna Johnson … GMMB’s Annie Burns … CBS’ Fernando Suarez … Clay Helton … Ken Lisaius … C. Boyden Gray … DNC’s Daniel Wessel … White House’s Evan Wessel and Chris Slevin … MSNBC’s Tiffany Cross … Amanda Fuchs Miller of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s (D-N.Y.) office … Missayr Boker … Jessica Hatcher … Sarah Wood … Tommy Brown … Todd Abrajano … ABC’s Amy Robach … Lloyd Grove … POLITICO’s Alina Strileckis, Julie Williams and Kenia Zelaya … E&E News’ Collins Chinyanta … Malcom Glenn … former New Jersey Senate Majority Leader Loretta Weinberg … former New Jersey Senate Majority Leader Loretta Weinberg … Helaine Klasky of Activision Blizzard … Alexa Cassanos … Alexa Cassanos … Rebecca Cooper … Martin Pengelly … Jacquie Bloom … AP’s Marina Villeneuve … Michael Pollan Correction: The New York Times article central to the Sarah Palin defamation case was an unsigned editorial. We got that wrong in Saturday’s Playbook. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.
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