Playbook PM: What you need to know before Biden’s Russia announcement

From: POLITICO Playbook - Tuesday Feb 22,2022 06:57 pm

Feb 22, 2022

By Eugene Daniels, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Presented by

President JOE BIDEN is expected to speak shortly on the Russia/Ukraine crisis, with all eyes on what the U.S. sanctions response will be to the invasion.

Yes, “invasion” is the word: After waffling Monday, the administration today officially tagged Russia’s dispatching of troops into Ukrainian breakaway regions as the much-anticipated “invasion.” Here’s principal deputy national security adviser JONATHAN FINER taking the rhetorical leap on CNN. AP’s Vladimir Isachenkov, Yuras Karmanau and Aamer Madhani report that the White House made the shift after examining Russian troop movements on the ground. (“Invasion,” of course, is the threshold officials have set for imposing strict sanctions.)

But the scope of the sanctions remains yet to be seen. Finer also said the White House foresaw “waves of sanctions that would unfold over time” — i.e. a tiered response, not bringing down the hammer on all the U.S. threats yet. “It is one of those situations where Mr. Biden has no truly good choices,” NYT’s Michael Shear and David Sanger write. U.S. officials, meanwhile, welcomed Germany’s announcement that it would halt the Nord Stream 2 pipeline — and took partial credit.

The administration is marshaling support for sanctions as tech powerhouses Japan, Singapore and Taiwan have jumped on board with tough export controls on Russia, Foreign Policy’s Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer reported today.

PUTIN GETS ‘GO-AHEAD’ — On Tuesday, Russian lawmakers OKed Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN for the use of military force outside the country’s borders. As the AP put it, the move “effectively formaliz[es] a Russian military deployment to the rebel regions, where an eight-year conflict has killed nearly 14,000 people.”

Putin said there were three things that could keep the crisis from escalating further — all three of which are almost assuredly not on the table in Kyiv: (1) Ukraine recognizes Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea; (2) Ukraine halts its request to join NATO; (3) Ukraine partially demilitarizes.

Other developments today:

— Russia claimed it was still open to diplomacy and declined to say whether its forces had entered the two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, per Reuters. Putin also said today that he accepts the end of the Soviet Union, and isn’t looking to rebuild an empire, per WaPo.

— At the same time, Russian forces reportedly shelled a Ukrainian power station that’s outside of the two regions they’ve invaded. And Russia said it was evacuating its diplomatic staff from Ukraine.

— The U.S. forces that have deployed to Poland are setting up processing centers in anticipation of a wave of people fleeing the conflict, NYT’s Eric Schmitt reports. Pentagon estimates anticipate 1 million to 5 million refugees if Russia attacks the whole of Ukraine.

— Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL issued a hearty call for sanctions: “Putin must be made to pay a far heavier price than he paid for his previous invasions of Georgia and Ukraine. This should begin, but not end, with devastating sanctions against the Kremlin and its enablers.” Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER also called for strong sanctions.

Good Tuesday afternoon.

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Benefits from day one. “At Amazon, your health benefits start the day you sign on the dotted line,” said Carlton, who made a doctor's appointment shortly after joining Amazon. That visit likely saved his life. “I wouldn’t be here today without those benefits.”

ALL POLITICS

COMING ATTRACTIONS — Iowa Gov. KIM REYNOLDS will deliver the Republican response to Biden’s State of the Union.

GOP MESSAGING WARS — McConnell made a conscious decision not to have the GOP release a policy agenda ahead of the midterms. But Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) is forging ahead with his own 11-point plan, Burgess Everett reports . The agenda, which Scott says is separate from his NRSC chairmanship, combines old-school Republican planks with Trump-inspired culture war fights.

— Among the steps he wants Republicans to take if they win back Congress: “completing the border wall and naming it after former President DONALD TRUMP, declaring ‘there are two genders,’ ending any reference to ethnicity on government forms and limiting most federal government workers — including members of Congress — to 12 years of service.” Also raising eyebrows: Scott wants all federal laws to sunset within five years of being passed. “If a law is worth keeping, Congress can pass it again.”

— But the agenda item that went viral this morning is Scott’s plan to require “all Americans” — including low-income families and the elderly — to pay income taxes. The potential political liability: “You have the head of the NRSC promising to raise income taxes on over 100 million Americans, opening the GOP up to attacks Trump did a pretty good job of neutralizing by abandoning unpopular GOP econ ideas,” writes Josh Barro. “I do expect to see this in Democratic attack ads this year.”

— “Perhaps even more notable than the plans themselves is that Scott is taking a big gamble just as he enters the most high-profile stretch of his political career,” Burgess writes, as Scott sets himself up in contrast to McConnell’s efforts to turn the midterms into a Biden referendum. “It’s not every day the NRSC chair introduces a policy platform.” The full plan … Five of the most interesting proposals, via Congress Minutes

DEMS’ MONEY NOT WHERE THEIR MOUTH IS — As warnings about the state of democracy grow more dire and Trump world homes in on secretary of state races, you might expect Democrats to follow suit. But big donors haven’t made it rain for the Democratic Association of Secretaries of State: GEORGE SOROS is the only person who’s donated more than $25,000 (to a group that can accept unlimited donations), Hailey Fuchs reports this morning.

It’s a familiar experience for the Democratic Party: A lack of investment in less flashy down-ticket races also helped doom them in state legislatures throughout the Obama and Trump years. DASS is still touting its fundraising benchmarks, but Hailey writes that the lack of big-donor focus on these key election administrators “threatens to undermine whatever momentum the party had been hoping to build around protecting voting rights.”

2022 WATCH — One of the year’s first big primaries arrives March 1, when progressive JESSICA CISNEROS tries to knock out Rep. HENRY CUELLAR, the House’s most conservative Democrat, in South Texas. From Laredo, Sarah Ferris reports that even as D.C. has largely abandoned Cuellar after the FBI raided his home and office, he’s still looking strong: The “King of Laredo” retains plenty of local loyalty for his old-school politicking, family ties and hefty earmarks. “In the month since the raid, Cuellar has received thousand-dollar-plus checks from a smattering of local luminaries.”

ENDORSEMENT WATCH — JANE TIMKEN landed endorsements from three members of Senate GOP leadership today in the crowded Ohio Senate primary: JONI ERNST (Iowa), DEB FISCHER (Neb.) and SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO (W.Va.), as The Hill’s Julia Manchester scooped.

POLL OF THE DAY — Democrats’ rural wipeout continues apace, as a new Morning Consult poll finds 65% of rural voters view the party unfavorably (and 48% of them strongly), Eli Yokley reports. Culture wars play an outsize role in driving these voters’ perceptions, with concern about the U.S.-Mexico border most correlated with Dem dislike.

JOIN THURSDAY TO HEAR FROM MAYORS ACROSS AMERICA: The Fifty: America’s Mayors will convene mayors from across the country to discuss their policy agendas, including the enforcement of Covid measures such as vaccine and mask mandates. We’ll also discuss how mayors are dealing with the fallout of the pandemic on their local economies and workforce, affordable housing and homelessness, and criminal justice reforms. REGISTER HERE.

JUDICIARY SQUARE

KEEPING UP WITH THE THOMASES — Danny Hakim and Jo Becker are out with a massive new NYT Magazine investigation revealing, among many other things, that GINNI THOMAS, wife of Supreme Court Justice CLARENCE THOMAS, was active in efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election — a move that would likely have ended up before her husband if it had worked.

In November 2020, a group Ginni Thomas co-led circulated a document with “action steps” to try to subvert the election results. Hakim and Becker also report that ahead of Jan. 6, 2021, she worked to resolve differences among the various pro-Trump factions organizing the rally. And after that day’s rally culminated in a violent attack on the Capitol, her group worked to alter the narrative about the insurrection afterward, recasting it as mostly peaceful protest. (There’s tons more in the story.)

SCOTUS WATCH — The Supreme Court this morning put the nail in the coffin of Trump’s efforts to stop the House Jan. 6 committee from getting his White House documents. The high court’s rejection of his bid to halt the National Archives’ handover came with no publicly noted dissents. More from Insider

— The Supreme Court announced today that it will take up the case of a Colorado web designer who doesn’t want to be forced to make websites for same-sex marriages. It could give the court a chance to decide whether people may “refuse service to customers in violation of public accommodation laws based on the idea that fulfilling a creative act such as designing a website or baking a cake is a form of free speech under the U.S. Constitution’s First Amendment,” Reuters’ Lawrence Hurley writes.

GUILTY VERDICT ON HATE CRIMES — A Georgia jury found the three men who murdered AHMAUD ARBERY guilty of federal hate crimes this morning after under four hours of deliberations. Latest from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

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POLICY CORNER

NOT IN GOOD HEALTH — There used to be bipartisan support for creating the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health, an ambitious new multibillion-dollar agency Biden wants to fund medical research. But tensions are growing as Republicans increasingly turn public health leaders into a culture war flashpoint and Democrats squabble internally over where it should be housed, Sarah Owermohle reports. ERIC LANDER’s departure didn’t help, and former NIH Director FRANCIS COLLINS’ return in his stead could ramp up disagreements with lawmakers over whether NIH would get ARPA-H. And time’s running out for the White House and Dems to reach agreement before the midterms.

THE PANDEMIC

CONTRARY TO EXPECTATIONS — That impending wave of hospital staffing shortages thanks to vaccine mandates you might have heard about? It hasn’t arrived, reports Megan Messerly : “Religious exemptions and education efforts for the hesitant are keeping almost all health care workers on the job.” Two dozen rural hospital leaders tell her that the federal requirement has yielded only a fraction of staff losses that Republicans in particular had warned about. Still, rural hospitals are still struggling with shortages, thanks to “longstanding recruitment and retention challenges exacerbated by pandemic-era burnout.”

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

PLAYBOOKERS

SPOTTED at a dinner hosted by Ghada and Ray Irani in their Bel Air home Monday to discuss the White House Historical Association and its White House preservation work: Stewart McLaurin, Rhett Wilson, Michael and Lori Milken, Julie Opperman, Sheldon and Cynthia Stone, Kevin Carroll, Dennis and Phyllis Washington, Gray and Sharon Davis, Jimmy and Debbie Lustig, and Lorna Johnson.

MEDIA MOVES — Fin Gómez has been named political director for CBS News. He previously was a White House producer. … Elise Flick is now global comms director for Vice World News. She most recently was senior strategist for Minassian Media.

TRANSITIONS — Harlan Geer is now senior counselor to the TSA administrator. He most recently was deputy assistant DHS secretary for legislative affairs. … Mariza Marin has been named acting chief of staff for CBP’s Office of Field Operations. She most recently was director for border security at the NSC. … Ed Kaleta is now SVP for global government affairs at 3M. He most recently was group VP for U.S. government relations at Walgreens. …

… John Weber has joined Monument Advocacy’s government relations team as part of the food and agriculture practice. He most recently was legislative director for Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), and is a House Agriculture alum. … Joshua Soven is now a partner in Paul, Weiss’ litigation department. He previously was at Wilson Sonsini, and is a DOJ antitrust alum.

ENGAGED — Jeremy Barr, media reporter at WaPo, proposed to Erin Lee Carr, a documentary filmmaker who directs films for HBO and Netflix, on Feb. 10 after she got off an airplane for a work trip. He first messaged her on Twitter to say he liked an episode of a doc series she directed, and in April 2018 they matched on Hinge, after which they promptly met and she asked him questions for five hours. Jeremy actually had met her father, the late NYT journalist David Carr, prior to the couple even knowing each other, and it turned out they were in the same room many times without meeting.Pic

BONUS BIRTHDAY: Jim Nevels of the Business Council for International Understanding (7-0)