Playbook PM: Breaking down Biden's Ukraine and Covid aid ask

From: POLITICO Playbook - Thursday Mar 03,2022 06:31 pm
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Playbook PM

By Garrett Ross and Eli Okun

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Speaker NANCY PELOSI this morning put wind behind the sails of lawmakers who want to ban Russian oil imports.

“I’m all for that. Ban it,” she said at her weekly news conference.

That will be a boost for Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska), who are introducing a bill to that effect today, as Rachael covered in Playbook this morning.

But it also comes with a substantial risk for Democrats: A ban would almost certainly raise the price of gasoline while inflation is already weighing down President JOE BIDEN’s poll numbers.

HE’S BACK — Sen. BEN RAY LUJÁN (D-N.M.) returned to the Senate Commerce Committee this morning — a month after suffering a stroke — where he was greeted by hugs and a standing ovation. “It’s an absolute honor to be back,” he said. Video

DUCEY OUT — Arizona Gov. DOUG DUCEY will not run for the U.S. Senate in 2022. He revealed the decision in a letter to donors obtained by The Arizona Republic’s Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Stacey Barchenger . “Ducey’s announcement to some of his closest financial allies ends the long-running effort by national and local Republican leaders and deep-pocketed donors to recruit him for the race against Sen. MARK KELLY, D-Ariz., whose reelection could decide which party controls the evenly divided chamber.”

Anthony Adragna notes for Congress Minutes that Ducey is the fourth GOP governor this cycle to forgo a Senate bid.

THE ADMIN’S AID ASK — The Biden administration rolled out its price tag — $32.5 billion — for two of its biggest priorities right now: aid to Ukraine and the U.S. response to the coronavirus. The breakdown, via WaPo’s Tony Romm:

— For Ukraine: The administration is seeking $10 billion, “hoping to address the emerging humanitarian crisis in the country in the face of a worsening Russian onslaught. The figure also includes assistance to bolster Ukraine’s defenses, protect its electrical grid from disruption, and further assist other European allies, according to two people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the plans.”

— For coronavirus funds: They want $22.5 billion, “to replenish key public health programs as a safeguard against future variants of the coronavirus, the people said. Top White House officials have maintained in recent days that they have enough funding to combat the waning omicron surge. But they have stressed that significant pots of money have been spent or committed to specific purposes, warranting new investment in testing, therapeutics and vaccines to protect against the possibility of a new wave.”

But Alice Miranda Ollstein and Erin Banco report that the Covid ask is far less than agency leaders had insisted was needed just a few weeks earlier. “While the administration stressed that the money is only for short-term, emergency needs, the new ask raises questions about when the White House will have to come back to Congress for more. Future asks could prove even more difficult to get through Congress because they won’t be attached to the broader military and domestic budgets, which are considered must-pass legislation.”

— “The $22 billion for Covid is absolutely necessary. In fact, we will probably need more,” Pelosi told reporters this morning.

And Connor O’Brien and Jennifer Scholtes have the deets on when the package might move: “Lawmakers are expected to tack the money onto a $1.5 trillion package to fund the government into the fall, as they scramble to close out the spending bill before next week’s deadline. … The lead lawmakers on appropriations aim to unveil bill text in the next few days, and House Democrats plan to pass the sweeping spending legislation on Tuesday, sending it on to the Senate well before government funding is set to run out.”

Good Thursday afternoon.

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WAR IN UKRAINE

— U.S. officials still believe “a large Russian military convoy headed toward Kyiv is ‘stalled,’” CNN’s Ellie Kaufman reports . “The official said the U.S. has ‘no reason to doubt Ukrainian claims’ that they have ‘contributed’ to the convoy being stalled by attacking it, the official said.”

— A diplomatic solution appears unlikely: “Barring some unexpected development, U.S. and European officials said they see no possibility for any diplomatic resolution to head off what they expect to be a brutal assault on key parts of Ukraine,” NBC’s Carol Lee, Courtney Kube and Josh Lederman report . “The only way to do so would be if Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN decided to de-escalate by agreeing to a cease-fire and beginning to leave Ukraine, a U.S. official said.”

To wit: “Russian President Putin told France’s [EMMANUEL] MACRON [that] Russia will ‘continue military interventions and go all the way,’ an Elysee Palace source told reporters,” per CNN’s @jimsciutto.

— NYT explainer: “One Week After Russia’s Invasion, Here’s How the War Is Evolving”

— WaPo explainer: “How Putin tried — and failed — to protect the ruble from sanctions”

— WSJ video explainer: “What the War in Ukraine Looks Like on Russian State Media”

— “A besieged Ukraine has adopted a gruesome tactic in hopes of stoking anti-government rage inside Russia: posting photos and videos of captured and killed Russian soldiers on the Web for anyone to see,” write WaPo’s Drew Harwell and Mary Ilyushina. On the one hand: “Ukrainian officials have argued that the chilling images will alert Russians to a devastating war effort the Kremlin has sought to conceal.” But here’s the problem: “the tactic also could be interpreted as a violation of the Geneva Conventions, which say governments must ‘at all times’ protect prisoners of war from ‘insults and public curiosity.’”

— The conflict has thrown the Pentagon for a loop. Instead of releasing its long-term defense plans, DoD is “delaying and revisiting its National Defense Strategy,” Connor O’Brien, Paul McLeary and Lee Hudson report. “Though the administration will continue to view China as its No. 1 threat, people familiar with the process say the Ukraine crisis will mean a larger emphasis on Russia in the strategy.”

— Even during the Cold War, U.S. and Russian diplomats could hash out agreements on pressing issues. But in the wake of Russia’s latest aggression, AP’s Matthew Lee and Vladimir Isachenkov explore the question: “Is U.S.-Russian diplomacy effectively dead?”

— The supply chain effect: The ongoing war has “shut down small but important industry suppliers, shutting plants far away from the conflict zone, while sanctions and severed trade routes are hindering car and parts shipments to and from Russia, once seen as a growth market,” WSJ’s William Boston writes.

— The International Cat Federation — which dubs itself the “United Nations of Cat Federations” — has banned Russian cats from its competitions, WaPo’s Jennifer Hassan writes.

 

SUBSCRIBE TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY : Keep up with the latest critical developments from Ukraine and across Europe in our daily newsletter, National Security Daily. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could disrupt the established world order and result in a refugee crisis, increased cyberattacks, rising energy costs and additional disruption to global supply chains. Go inside the top national security and foreign-policymaking shops for insight on the global threats faced by the U.S. and its allies and what actions world leaders are taking to address them. Subscribe today.

 
 

JUDICIARY SQUARE

THE GOP’S KBJ CONUNDRUM — As senators prepare for Judge KETANJI BROWN JACKSON’s confirmation hearings, two Republicans who aren’t part of the Judiciary Committee proceedings are grappling with how to treat her nomination. Utah Sen. MITT ROMNEY and retiring Missouri Sen. ROY BLUNT “are trying to balance the historic nature of her nomination with her more liberal judicial philosophy. Romney voted against Jackson’s nomination to D.C.'s influential appellate court last year, and Blunt missed the vote. Now both find themselves weighing whether to treat her high court bid differently,” Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett report. “That the two senators — who don’t typically support Biden’s judges — are already grappling with whether to support her illustrates the political delicacy surrounding such a barrier-breaking pick. It’s simply not so easy for some Republicans to reflexively vote no.”

SCOTUS WATCH — The Supreme Court this morning “ruled for the U.S. government in a case involving a Guantanamo Bay detainee seeking what the government said is secret information,” AP’s Jessica Gresko writes. “Justice STEPHEN BREYER wrote in an opinion joined by six of his colleagues that the government had argued ‘[ABU] ZUBAYDAH ’s discovery request could force former CIA contractors to confirm the location of the detention site and that confirmation would itself significantly harm national security interests.’”

CONGRESS

KNOWING RASHIDA TLAIB — Rozina Ali profiles the firebrand Michigan progressive for NYT Magazine: “Tlaib’s arrival on the national stage has also coincided with an opening, albeit a small one, within the Democratic Party to challenge the United States’ Israel policy. The Palestinian cause has become a significant part of the politics of the American left at the same time that the left has gained a legible footing on the national stage. Tlaib, a democratic socialist who is if anything more outspoken on domestic issues than she is on the Palestinian cause, has found herself at the center of this turn.”

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

LOOK WHO’S TALKING — JUDD DEERE, who was a deputy press secretary in the Trump White House, is meeting with the Jan. 6 select committee today, Nicholas Wu reports for Congress Minutes . Deere “received a subpoena for documents and testimony from the panel at the end of January. Unlike many of the panel’s other summonses, Deere’s was not announced publicly.”

TRUMP CARDS

THE BARR INTERVIEW — NBC’s Lester Holt sat down with former Trump A.G. BILL BARR for an interview that is set to air on “NBC Nightly News” tonight ahead of a primetime special on Sunday. “I told him that all this stuff was bulls--- about election fraud. And, you know, it was wrong to be shoveling it out the way his team was,” Barr said, describing the day he resigned . “Barr said he told Trump, ‘I understand you're upset with me. And I'm perfectly happy to tender my resignation.’ Barr said Trump then slapped his desk and said, ‘Accepted. Accepted,’ Barr recalled. ‘And then - boom. He slapped it again. “Accepted. Go home. Don't go back to your office. Go home. You're done.”’” 55-second preview clip

THE ECONOMY

THE UNEMPLOYMENT PICTURE — “Jobless claims fell by 18,000 to 215,000 for the week ending February 26, from 233,000 the previous week, the Labor Department reported Thursday,” AP’s Matt Ott writes. “The four-week average for claims, which compensates for weekly volatility, fell by 6,000 to 230,500.”

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

ALL POLITICS

AD WARS — “The Democratic super PAC American Bridge 21st Century is out with a $5 million ad buy in battleground states to boost President Joe Biden as the 2022 midterms kick off,” Elena Schneider scoops. “TV, digital and radio ads will air in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — a slate of states Biden won in 2020 where top Senate, House and gubernatorial races are on the ballot in 2022. The new ad campaign, shared first with POLITICO, will start on March 9 in Pennsylvania and Georgia and on March 15 in Arizona and Nevada.”

2024 DEBATE WARS CONTINUE — The RNC is escalating its feud with the organizer of the general election presidential debates, WSJ’s John McCormick reports. “In a letter to the Commission on Presidential Debates first shared with The Wall Street Journal, the RNC recommends that the independent nonprofit organization shouldn’t fundraise off the notion that its work might include GOP candidates in the 2024 election.

“‘The Commission on Presidential Debates should refrain from representing to its donors and potential partners that the Republican presidential nominee will participate in any CPD-sponsored debates in the 2024 presidential cycle,’ RNC Chairwoman RONNA MCDANIEL wrote in the letter.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

THE LATEST ON IRAN — The U.N. released an alarming report on Iran’s nuclear weapon capabilities this morning as talks continue to restore a nuclear deal. “In a confidential report circulated to members, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that as of Feb. 19, Iran has 33.2 kilograms of 60% enriched material, up from 17.7 kilograms in early November when the agency last reported. It is the most highly enriched uranium ever recorded for Iran,” WSJ’s Laurence Norman reports.

THE PANDEMIC

THE DISINFO CRACKDOWN — Surgeon General VIVEK MURTHY “formally requested that the major tech platforms submit information about the scale of Covid-19 misinformation on social networks, search engines, crowdsourced platforms, e-commerce platforms and instant messaging systems,” NYT’s Davey Alba writes.

THE POST-COVID WORLD — One thing that may become a long-lasting result of the pandemic: “new types of at-home tests, including for flu and strep throat, aimed at consumers who are increasingly monitoring and managing their own health through fitness apps and smartwatches,” writes WSJ’s Austen Hufford.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

BACK IN SCRANTON — Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove travels to Biden’s hometown of Scranton, Pa., to check the mood outside the D.C. bubble. “The city looks like a success story. It’s experienced a recent economic turnaround thanks in part to the growth of e-commerce outfits like Amazon.com Inc. and Chewy Inc., a pet supplies company with a distribution center in the area. Yet locals say something about the nation doesn’t work any more — inflation is soaring, wages aren’t keeping up, labor shortages appear everywhere, government is dysfunctional and the American dream seems just out of reach.

“‘If you put your fingers on the pulse of America, it’s not healthy,’ said SHANE CAWLEY, a local ironworker who introduced Biden on his last visit to Scranton in October. The actual mood in America? ‘Scared, desperate,’ Cawley said. Inflation is ‘out of control’ and Americans are increasingly frustrated with a bitterly divided political class, he said. ‘Not just frustrated. Angry, straight angry.’”

CLIMATE CLICKER — “This Map Shows Where Biodiversity Is Most at Risk in America,” by NYT’s Catrin Einhorn and Nadja Popovich

PLAYBOOKERS

TRANSITION — Lindsay Baringer is joining Impactual as a director. She most recently has been PAC manager at Amazon.

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