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Presented by Emergent: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington. | | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Garrett Ross and Eli Okun | Presented by Emergent | The inflation report that the White House was bracing for has arrived. And it contained the expected bad news:
- The consumer price index increased by 7.9% over the last 12 months.
- That’s the fastest rate of inflation since “January 1982, back when the U.S. economy confronted the twin threat of higher inflation and reduced economic growth,” CNBC’s Jeff Cox writes.
- The deets, via WSJ: “Gasoline prices were up a seasonally-adjusted 6.6% from the prior month, for an unadjusted annual increase of 38%. Groceries were up 1.4% over the prior month for an annual rate of 8.6%. Housing-rental costs rose at a slower rate, up 4.7% over the year. Used car prices declined slightly last month, pausing double digit price increases over the past year.”
But the White House seems to have been prepared for the scathing report. President JOE BIDEN issued a statement blaming the spiking figures on “Putin’s price hike.” He continued: “As I have said from the start, there will be costs at home as we impose crippling sanctions in response to [Russian President VLADIMIR] PUTIN’s unprovoked war, but Americans can know this: The costs we are imposing on Putin and his cronies are far more devastating than the costs we are facing.” You can probably expect to hear more of that from Dems . It’s easier to blame inflation on Putin than to make a complicated explanation about monetary policy and supply chains. (And, in the case of high oil prices these last few weeks, it has the advantage of being true.) You can also expect Dems to trumpet last year’s record job growth — which has continued into 2022 — as evidence that their economic plans are working. The problem, of course, is that inflation is likely to get worse . Unless oil prices retreat quickly — and given that they’ve surged up the past few weeks, that seems unlikely — we could easily top 8% inflation (or worse) in the coming months. Elsewhere, the NRCC was quick to make use of the issue, dropping new attack ads hitting 10 House Dems over record high gas prices, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser reports. The Dems being targeted: Reps. TOM O’HALLERAN (Ariz.), SHARICE DAVIDS (Kan.), Michigan’s ELISSA SLOTKIN and DAN KILDEE; ANGIE CRAIG (Minn.); CHRIS PAPPAS (N.H.); SUSIE LEE (Nev.), SEAN PATRICK MALONEY (N.Y.), ELAINE LURIA (Va.), and KIM SCHRIER (Wash.). Speaking of high gas prices and vulnerable Dems … “Democratic governors from states including Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania this week pushed Congress to suspend the [federal gas] tax, which amounts to 18 cents a gallon, for the rest of the year. Some Senate Democrats who are facing difficult re-election fights in November also renewed their call for legislation that would halt the tax and are urging Mr. Biden to back the bill,” WSJ’s Tarini Parti and Andrew Restuccia report . “Biden administration officials have been discussing the merits and potential drawbacks of endorsing legislation to suspend the gas tax for weeks, according to people familiar with the discussions. Some administration officials are skeptical that the move would significantly help consumers, the people said.” GOV FUNDING UPDATE — Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER wants the Senate to pass the government funding bill “hopefully tonight,” and urged his colleagues to “arrive at a path forward quickly.” BUT, BUT, BUT … our colleague Anthony Adragna is skeptical: “Here’s why we're betting on no movement until tomorrow — and we’ve seen our fair share of these fights.”
- A group of nine GOP senators requested a Congressional Budget Office score on the package this week. Would they allow speedy consideration of the bill without one? That letter.
- You need consent from all 100 senators to move ahead at this point, and fiscal conservatives detest these types of massive spending packages. Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) has held up these sorts of bills before — even forcing a brief shutdown in 2018. He's one to watch.
- The House passed a short-term funding patch for a reason. We'll see if the Senate needs it.
Good Thursday afternoon.
| | | | A message from Emergent: Emerging threats never stop and neither do we. Our protections help defend against things we hope will never happen – so we are prepared, in case they ever do. Learn how we’ve become a leader in protecting people against public health threats at www.emergentbiosolutions.com. | | | WAR IN UKRAINE HARRIS IN POLAND — In light of recent headlines on the disconnect between the U.S. and Poland over how/whether to supply fighter jets to Ukraine (more on that below), Vice President KAMALA HARRIS sought to reinforce ties with Poland as she visited the NATO ally today. Key points from her presser with Polish President ANDRZEJ DUDA: — Harris reaffirmed U.S. commitment to Article V, saying that “the United States is prepared to defend every inch of NATO territory.” — Asked if the U.S. would support an investigation into possible war crimes committed by Putin after the bombing of a maternity hospital, Harris noted that “the U.N. has set up a process by which there will be a review and investigations, and we will of course participate as appropriate and necessary. … Absolutely there should be an investigation, and we should all be watching.” — Harris also announced $53 million more in humanitarian aid to countries experiencing an influx of refugees as war rages in Ukraine, and said the U.S. plans to do more as the crisis grows. (Harris also met with seven refugees today in a roundtable.) HOW IT HAPPENED — Our colleagues Paul McLeary, Alexander Ward and Betsy Woodruff Swan have a must-read on how the deal to get MiGs to Ukraine was “scuttled.” Despite Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s open plea for the jets, “skeptics inside the Biden administration pushed back on the idea of green-lighting the transfer of Poland’s MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine, and President Joe Biden sided with those skeptics, three U.S. officials said. “The list of objections is long, from the logistics of getting as many as 28 fighter planes over the border into Ukraine to the stickier issue of flying fighter jets from a NATO country into a war zone, which some officials thought would make the alliance more of a participant in the fight than it already is. The administration considers that overt support as more offensive than the anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles they’re flowing into Ukraine from Poland and Romania. “The transfer might have been possible if the deal was kept under wraps, but that became impossible after JOSEP BORRELL, the EU’s foreign affairs and security policy chief, declared unequivocally to reporters on Feb. 27 that the bloc would provide Ukraine with fighter jets. The announcement came as a shock to many, U.S. and European officials said, including aides in Eastern European capitals who hoped to keep the transfer quiet. THE LATEST … — Short of an agreement to end the war, the outlook in Ukraine is increasingly bleak. “The Biden administration and its allies say they see no clear end to the military phase of this conflict, according to interviews with 17 administration officials, diplomats, policymakers and experts,” WaPo’s Ashley Parker, John Hudson, Michael Birnbaum and Paul Sonne report. “The situation seems destined to result in an even deadlier and more protracted slog, wreaking devastation in Ukraine and causing a massive humanitarian crisis.” — Ukrainian officials estimate that “$100 billion worth of Ukrainian assets have been lost and destroyed so far,” per NYT’s Alan Rappeport. THE PANDEMIC RE-UPPING THE MASK MANDATE? — The Biden administration is expected to announce as soon as today a monthlong extension of its federal transportation mask mandate, CNN’s Pete Muntean and Gregory Wallace report . “The mandate is one of the last remaining broad requirements that Americans wear masks in public places. It applies to mass transportation including planes, trains, buses and hubs like airports. … One source said the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may ultimately allow the mandate to lift before the 30-day period is up, if transmission rates of the virus nationwide drop to low enough levels.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY : Keep up with the latest critical developments from Ukraine and across Europe in our daily newsletter, National Security Daily. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could disrupt the established world order and result in a refugee crisis, increased cyberattacks, rising energy costs and additional disruption to global supply chains. Go inside the top national security and foreign-policymaking shops for insight on the global threats faced by the U.S. and its allies and what actions world leaders are taking to address them. Subscribe today. | | | | | THE ECONOMY THE UNEMPLOYMENT PICTURE — “Jobless claims rose by 11,000 to 227,000 for the week ending March 5, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The previous week’s number was 216,000. First-time applications for jobless aid generally track the pace of layoffs. The four-week average for claims, which compensates for weekly volatility, rose by 500 to 230,750,” AP’s Matt Ott writes. BEYOND THE BELTWAY CENSUS UNDERCOUNTS MINORITIES — The 2020 Census “continued a longstanding trend of undercounting Black people, Latinos and Native Americans, while overcounting people who identified as white and not Latino, according to estimates from a report the U.S. Census Bureau released Thursday,” NPR’s Hansi Lo Wang writes. The details: “Latinos were left out of the 2020 census at more than three times the rate of a decade earlier. Among Native Americans living on reservations and Black people, the net undercount rates were numerically higher but not statistically different from the 2010 rates.” The Census Bureau report JUDICIARY SQUARE KBJ FILES — One holdup that Republicans seem to be focusing on with KETANJI BROWN JACKSON’s Supreme Court nomination is “whether she would sit out an upcoming case examining the role race can play in college admissions because of her close ties to Harvard University,” WaPo’s Ann Marimow and Seung Min Kim report . “Some contend the case examining Harvard’s admissions policies would present an early test of Jackson’s judicial ethics if she is confirmed. … Jackson, whose term on Harvard’s Board of Overseers expires this spring, has not said publicly what she would do. … But whether Jackson should step aside is not so clear-cut.”
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S INAUGURAL HEALTH CARE SUMMIT ON 3/31: Join POLITICO for a discussion with health care providers, policymakers, federal regulators, patient representatives, and industry leaders to better understand the latest policy and industry solutions in place as we enter year three of the pandemic. Panelists will discuss the latest proposals to overcome long-standing health care challenges in the U.S., such as expanding access to care, affordability, and prescription drug prices. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | ALL POLITICS ELECTION ALARM BELLS — A new Brennan Center poll of local election officials across the country has some stark findings: “One in six election officials have experienced threats because of their job, and 77 percent say that they feel these threats have increased in recent years. Ranging from death threats that name officials’ young children to racist and gendered harassment, these attacks have forced election officials across the country to take steps like hiring personal security, fleeing their homes, and putting their children into counseling.” — Zach Montellaro has more on the poll, summing it up as such: “Local election officials are exhausted, under threat and thinking about quitting” REDISTRICTING READ — Despite all of the kerfuffle over gerrymandering, the overall congressional map is heading toward something rare in today’s political climate: balance. NYT’s Nate Cohn writes that “between 216 and 219 congressional districts, out of the 435 nationwide, appear likely to tilt toward the Democrats, according to a New York Times analysis based on recent presidential election results. An identical 216 to 219 districts appear likely to tilt toward Republicans, if the maps enacted so far withstand legal challenges.” WHERE DEMS ARE FOCUSED — The DCCC is out with its “Red to Blue” program for top-tier candidates, offering an early look at how it views the House battlefield with redistricting nearly complete, Ally Mutnick reports. “The majority of the program’s roster is running for seats that became much more favorable for Democrats under new redistricting maps. Biden carried 10 of the 12 target districts in 2020.” The full list of candidates LETTER FROM ARIZONA — Hank Stephenson writes from Phoenix for POLITICO Mag on Arizona Attorney General MARK BRNOVICH , a lifelong Republican and diehard conservative who is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate. “In any normal year, his current job would be a big asset: He’s one of Arizona’s highest profile elected officials, with unmatched name ID and what seems to be a standing invitation to Fox News. But in 2022, he faces a squeeze familiar to high-profile Republican state officials across the country. With [former President DONALD] TRUMP unwilling to let go of the lie he won the election, and the GOP base passionately defending his claims, Republicans who actually hold office — and who have to operate within the rules and norms of government — face a disadvantage with many of their own voters. … So far, Brnovich has taken what looks like the path of least resistance, politically: He won’t endorse Trump’s Big Lie, or prosecute people over it, but he’s not loudly refuting it either.” JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH THE TORTOISE AND THE HAIR — “Among hundreds of people at the U.S. Capitol riot who had yet to be identified, the FBI was on the lookout for a man with long hair who had been captured on video pushing a Capitol Police officer over a ledge on the West Terrace. The search ended when investigators were alerted to a picture of the suspect on Facebook from a 2018 fundraiser for sea turtles, according to court records. Two people — a volunteer with the sea turtle nonprofit and a longtime friend — confirmed the man’s identity, federal prosecutors said,” WaPo’s Jaclyn Peiser writes. AMERICA AND THE WORLD PAYBACK PRESSURE — Pressure is building for Biden to “begin unwinding sanctions on Venezuela after President NICOLAS MADURO freed two American prisoners and promised to resume negotiations with his opponents,” AP’s Joshua Goodman and Regina Garcia Cano report from Miami. “Maduro’s goodwill gesture came during a weekend trip to Caracas by senior White House and State Department officials that caught off guard Maduro’s friends and foes alike. While the Biden administration is saying little about what was discussed behind closed doors, a smug Maduro — who has sought face-to-face talks with the U.S. for years — bragged that careful protocol was followed, with the flags of the two nations ‘beautifully united, as they should be.’” MILITARY MOVES — U.S. forces are urging Biden to deploy troops in Somalia to help quell the spread of an al Qaeda local affiliate, WSJ’s Michael Phillips reports . “Military commanders want the White House to reverse then-President Donald Trump’s last-minute order to withdraw some 700 Army Green Berets, Navy SEALs and Marine Raiders from bases in Somalia, where they had been training an elite local unit to fight al-Shabaab, according to the officials. The Pentagon moved most of the American commandos to neighboring Djibouti and Kenya.” PLAYBOOKERS SPOTTED at the new Qatari embassy in DuPont Circle on Wednesday evening for an event honoring the House Chiefs of Staff Association, where 60 Republican and Democratic chiefs of staff and staff directors gathered for a reception featuring a live string quartet: Sheikh Meshal Hamad Al-Thani and Eva Al-Thani, co-chairs Mitchell Rivard and Jonathan Day, Hamad Al-Muftah, Mark Dreiling, Tara Rountree, Nick Hawatmeh, Hope Goins, Austin Weatherford, Chad Obermiller, Sonali Desai, Juan Lopez, Rebekah Solem, Justin German, Carolyn King, Connor McNutt, Sang Yi and John Byers. Pics BONUS BIRTHDAY: Bill Van Saun of the Senate Veterans Affairs Dems
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