Playbook PM: The 3 big topics looming over Biden in Brussels

From: POLITICO Playbook - Thursday Mar 24,2022 05:11 pm

Mar 24, 2022

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There’s a whirlwind of news out of Brussels today as President JOE BIDEN meets with leaders of NATO countries and the G-7. Here are three big stories dominating the discussions:

1. North Korea’s missile launch casts a shadow:

Hovering over the meeting of G-7 leaders today is the news that North Korea tested its most significant and powerful intercontinental ballistic missile since 2017.

Earlier today, President JOE BIDEN met with Japanese PM FUMIO KISHIDA to discuss the matter. A White House official said that “both leaders strongly condemned [the launch], stressed the need for diplomacy, and agreed to continue working together to hold the DPRK accountable. President Biden conveyed to Prime Minister Kishida our rock solid commitment to the security of Japan and the Republic of Korea.”

— What to know about the ICBM: Japanese officials said the missile flew for more than an hour, traveled nearly 700 miles and hit the ocean just over 100 miles from Japan. “Based on the improved flight data, North Korea demonstrated a new capability,” reports the WSJ: “an ability to carry several tons of payload over an intercontinental range — enough for a single, heavy warhead or multiple, smaller ones.”

2. The U.S. steps up its efforts on Ukrainian refugees and Russian sanctions.

This morning, the Biden administration announced that the U.S. will take “100,000 Ukrainian refugees into the country and will donate $1 billion to help European countries deal with the surge of migrants fleeing Russia’s invasion,” NYT’s Michael Shear reports. “It is not clear what legal path those refugees will take.”

The announcement also indicated that the U.S. would increase sanctions on Russia, “targeting members of the country’s parliament, known as the Duma, and defense contractors. The U.S. will also work with other Western nations to ensure gold reserves held by Russia’s central bank are subjected to existing sanctions,” per AP’s Chris Megerian, Lorne Cook And Aamer Madhani in Brussels.

— In addition, a “U.S. official, who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said Western nations are discussing the possibility of providing anti-ship weapons amid concerns that Russia will launch amphibious assaults along the Black Sea coast.”

— The political context: “Americans want Biden to be tougher on Russia: AP-NORC poll,” by AP’s Hannah Fingerhut

3. NATO rethinks security amid Russian aggression.

NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG “opened the closed-door summit with a sober warning that the alliance must boost its defenses and “respond to a new security reality in Europe,” per the AP. “We gather at a critical time for our security,” he said. “We are united in condemning the Kremlin’s unprovoked aggression and in our support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, who spoke to the group virtually, “called for ‘military assistance without limitations,’ as Russia is ‘without limits using its entire arsenal.’ He specifically asked for anti-air and anti-ship weapons. And although Zelenskyy thanked Western nations for support they already have provided, his frustration was clear.”

In a statement released after the meeting, Biden said: “We are committed to identifying additional equipment, including air defense systems, to help Ukraine.”

Leaders also elected to extend Stoltenberg’s term to Sept. 30, 2023, in order to continue leading the alliance through the Russia-Ukraine conflict. (Programming alert: Stoltenberg will sit down with NBC’s LESTER HOLT for an interview airing on “NBC Nightly News” at 6:30 p.m. Eastern.)

Still to come today:

— Biden is meeting with G-7 leaders and has another scheduled meeting with the European Council. “The Group of Seven nations is expected to issue a statement later in the day warning Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN against using chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine, a U.S. official said,” per WaPo’s Ashley Parker, Tyler Pager and Emily Rauhala. “It’s unclear what consequences, if any, the G-7 statement on chemical weapons will lay out for Putin.”

— Biden will hold a news conference at 3 p.m. Eastern time.

Good Thursday afternoon.

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JUDICIARY SQUARE

Today marked the fourth and final confirmation hearing for Judge KETANJI BROWN JACKSON’s nomination to the Supreme Court and featured testimony from outside witnesses who could speak to Jackson’s fitness to serve on the high court.

Here’s the summary, from WaPo’s John Wagner, Amy Wang, Mariana Alfaro, Eugene Scott and Felicia Sonmez : “Representatives of the American Bar Association lauded the qualifications of Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson on Thursday, saying everyone they interviewed used terms such as ‘brilliant,’ ‘beyond reproach,’ ‘impeccable’ and ‘A-plus’ to describe her. They said they found no evidence to support Republican criticism that Jackson was lenient in her sentencing as a federal trial court judge. …

“Witnesses invited by Republicans have questioned Jackson’s judicial philosophy and whether she would try to use her position to remake the court system. Those invited by Democrats have highlighted Jackson’s temperament and the historic nature of her nomination.”

Now, all the attention turns to the vote. While it isn’t expected that Dems will need any GOP help in confirming Jackson, it’s an open question if they will be able to get any Republicans to join them in the history-making vote.

There are nine key senators to watch, writes Marianne LeVine. In Biden’s Washington, it’s a pretty familiar list of swing votes:

1) LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska), 2) SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine), 3) MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah), 4) LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), 5) ROY BLUNT (R-Mo.), 6) ROB PORTMAN (R-Ohio), 7) RICHARD BURR (R-N.C.), 8) JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.), 9) KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.)

Why this group? While Manchin and Sinema can pretty safely be counted as “yes” votes for Dems, Marianne writes that some of the Republicans are “torn between supporting Jackson’s historic nomination and voting no based on opposition to her judicial philosophy. A few in that group are retiring this year, freeing them from the potential political risks of backing her nomination, although a vote to confirm Jackson would roil the GOP primaries currently underway to replace them.”

Meanwhile, some GOP senators’ questioning and focus during Jackson’s hearings has “set off a new debate over the Republican Party’s stance toward QAnon,” NYT’s David Kirkpatrick and Stuart Thompson write. “Although few QAnon followers appeared to take notice of Judge Jackson’s sentencing record before Senator [JOSH] HAWLEY’s (R-Mo.) tweets, her judicial career had touched the roots of the conspiracy theory: an earlier internet myth known as Pizzagate.”

MEANWHILE … In an 8-1 decision today, the Supreme Court ruled that “Texas must allow a death row inmate to have a pastor ‘pray over’ him and touch him as the prisoner is put to death by lethal injection,” writes Josh Gerstein.

CONGRESS

EARLY EXIT — Rep. FILEMON VELA (D-Texas) announced today that he will resign from Congress in the coming weeks, speeding up the timeline of his departure after he said last year that he would retire at the end of his term. “The South Texas Democrat will leave before the end of his term to work for Akin Gump, a prominent law and lobbying firm,” Texas Tribune’s Abby Livingston writes. “That development will set off a unique special election to replace him. His 34th District is based in Brownsville. His close friend, U.S. Rep. VICENTE GONZALEZ , announced last year after redistricting that he would run for Vela’s seat in the wake of Texas redistricting. He currently represents the neighboring 15th District based in McAllen.”

SUBSCRIBE TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY : Keep up with the latest critical developments from Ukraine and across Europe in our daily newsletter, National Security Daily. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could disrupt the established world order and result in a refugee crisis, increased cyberattacks, rising energy costs and additional disruption to global supply chains. Go inside the top national security and foreign-policymaking shops for insight on the global threats faced by the U.S. and its allies and what actions world leaders are taking to address them. Subscribe today.

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

DO FUNDRAISING EMAILS MATTER? — As congressional investigators and the RNC clash over access to documents in court, Kyle Cheney writes that the probe is keying in on “a classic Washington bit of performative politics: spammy fundraising emails.”

“One hour before rioters breached police lines at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, a fundraising email — sent jointly by the Trump campaign and the RNC — arrived in the inboxes of thousands of supporters. ‘This is our last chance,’ the subject line read above an email urging supporters to ‘FIGHT BACK.’

“The Hill’s insurrection investigators say emails like this , which clogged the inboxes of Trump supporters in the weeks after the 2020 presidential election, amounted to a disinformation campaign that fueled the unrest that turned violent at the Capitol. And they want to know who at the RNC authored and approved these small-dollar fundraising efforts, which helped raise millions on the false claim that then-President Donald Trump’s loss could be reversed.”

WAR IN UKRAINE

— “A Biden administration official key to crafting sanctions on Russia blasted the Kremlin on Thursday as it partially reopened the Moscow stock exchange following a month’s hiatus. Daleep Singh, deputy national security adviser for international economics, called the move ‘a charade’ and ‘a Potemkin market opening,’” Nahal Toosi reports.

— “Roughly 7,000 to 15,000 Russian troops have been killed in four weeks of fighting in Ukraine, a senior NATO military official said Wednesday,” per WaPo’s Emily Rauhala, Dan Lamothe, Adela Suliman and Jennifer Hassan . “The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity under NATO ground rules, said the estimate was based on several factors, including information from Ukrainian officials, what the Russian side has released and open sources.”

— “A rare face-to-face meeting between Russian and U.S. military officials last week led to an ‘outburst’ of emotion from a normally stoic Russian general, a ‘revealing moment’ that the Americans present believe hinted at larger morale problems in Russia's military, according to a closely held US military readout of what transpired,” CNN’s Barbara Starr and Jeremy Herb report. “The readout, which was reviewed by CNN, describes the perspective of the two defense attachés who attended and their own impressions of what they saw and heard. It does not offer a definitive explanation of the Russian general's behavior.”

RUSSIAN REVOLT — “Fed Up With Deadly Propaganda, Some Russian Journalists Quit,” by NYT’s Anton Troianovski … “Russian crew aboard a superyacht possibly linked to Putin have left their jobs, workers say,” NYT

THE PANDEMIC

COVID CAUTION — As a fresh surge of coronavirus cases caused by the BA.2 Omicron variant crops up in Britain, U.S. officials are watching the developments closely, WSJ’s Andrew Barnett, Taylor Umlauf and Jon Kamp write. “Whether U.S. cases will start climbing, once again following the U.K. trends, remains to be seen, public-health experts say. Some factors could help the U.S. avoid widespread surges, including BA.2’s acceleration in the early spring, when people in cold-weather areas such as the Northeast are starting to spend more time outdoors.”

ALL POLITICS

POLITICAL PULSECHECK IN INFLATION’S TOP HOTSPOT — WSJ’s John McCormick talks with voters in Scottsdale, Ariz., an area of the country that has been hit by the worst inflation bumps in a state that has trended purple in recent elections. “Interviews with residents and local business owners in the neighborhood on Scottsdale’s eastern edge suggest any patience for higher inflation could reach a breaking point by November if prices keep rising or stay high.”

DON’T MISS POLITICO’S INAUGURAL HEALTH CARE SUMMIT ON 3/31: Join POLITICO for a discussion with health care providers, policymakers, federal regulators, patient representatives, and industry leaders to better understand the latest policy and industry solutions in place as we enter year three of the pandemic. Panelists will discuss the latest proposals to overcome long-standing health care challenges in the U.S., such as expanding access to care, affordability, and prescription drug prices. REGISTER HERE.

THE ECONOMY

THE UNEMPLOYMENT PICTURE — “Fewer Americans applied for unemployment aid last week than at any time in the last 50 years, a sign employers are retaining workers amid a tight labor market,” CBS’ Irina Ivanova writes. “Some 187,000 workers filed for jobless aid in the week ended March 19, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The numbers, adjusted for seasonal factors, are the lowest since 1969.”

POLICY CORNER

IMMIGRATION FILES — The Biden administration is working on a plan to “overhaul the system for immigrants seeking asylum in the United States,” NYT’s Eileen Sullivan reports. “Under the new policy, which the administration released on Thursday, some migrants seeking asylum will have their claims heard and evaluated by asylum officers instead of immigration judges. The goal, administration officials said, is for the entire process to take six months, compared with a current average of about five years.”

PLAYBOOKERS

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the American Council on Renewable Energy’s 20th Anniversary Gala on Wednesday night at Union Station: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), who received the organization’s Renewable Energy Champion award, Sens. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Gregory Wetstone, Gene Karpinski, Heather Zichal, Carol Browner, Kevin Gresham, Vikas Agrawal, Laura Beane, Mit Buchanan, Will Conkling, Mona Dajani, Kristal Hansley, Andy Jack, Shannon Kellogg, Marcus Krembs, Urvi Parekh, Gaurav Raniwala, Himanshu Saxena, Meghan Schultz and Ray Wood.

— SPOTTED at a dinner in honor of Coach Kathy Kemper, CEO of the Institute for Education, hosted by Ben Elmore, CEO of Intevity, and Janet Donovan on Wednesday night at Cafe Milano, where Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer signed copies of his latest book and EU Ambassador Starvos Lambrinidis talked about the crisis in Ukraine: Singapore Ambassador Ashok Kumar Mirpuri, Joanna Breyer, Kevin Cirilli, David Adler, Kelsey Valentine, Max Dickinson, John Paul Farmer, Mark Smith, Jennifer Rudy, David Edelman, Megan Smith, Aneesh Chopra, Catlin McLean, Kathi Vidal and Gloria Dittus. Pic

TRANSITIONS — Shawn Gaylord is joining the Raben Group as a principal. He currently is executive director of the Congressional LGBTQ+ Equality Caucus. … Knox McCutchen is now comms director for Rep. Cliff Bentz (R-Ore.). He previously was press secretary for Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.).

BONUS BIRTHDAY: Megan Behrends of Sen. Chuck Grassley’s (R-Iowa) office (23)