Playbook PM: Biden’s next economic message: Bigger isn’t better

From: POLITICO Playbook - Friday Jun 03,2022 05:34 pm
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Playbook PM

By Eli Okun

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BULLETIN — The Justice Department indicted former Trump trade adviser PETER NAVARRO today and took him into custody on charges of contempt of Congress, after he sloughed off a House Jan. 6 committee subpoena. He’s expected in court at 2:30 p.m. Navarro’s indictment follows STEVE BANNON’s similar one in November.

The charges against Navarro would together carry a maximum sentence of two years behind bars. As one of the most vigorous advocates in the Trump administration for attempts to overturn the 2020 election, Navarro became one of many focuses for the House panel probing Jan. 6. But after he was subpoenaed in February, he cited DONALD TRUMP’s claims of executive privilege in refusing to comply. (Navarro has also separately been subpoenaed as part of the DOJ’s Jan. 6 investigation. He’s suing his various investigators.) More from CNN

JUST POSTED — MARC SHORT called then-VP MIKE PENCE’s lead Secret Service agent on Jan. 5, 2021, to warn that Pence could be in danger when Trump turned on the VP the following day, NYT’s Maggie Haberman reports, from her forthcoming book, “Confidence Man.”

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 02: U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the recent mass shootings from the White House on June 02, 2022 in Washington, DC. In a prime-time address Biden spoke on the need for Congress to pass gun control legislation following a wave of mass shootings including the killing of 19 students and two teachers at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas and a racially-motivated shooting in Buffalo, New York that left 10 dead. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

President Joe Biden’s word of the day was “steady,” as he tries to prepare Americans for more moderation and fewer blockbuster numbers in future jobs reports. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

RECESSION? WHAT RECESSION? — The U.S. jobs market is still looking robust in this morning’s May jobs report, which reported 390,000 jobs created last month and a continuing low unemployment rate of 3.6%. That was actually the slowest pace of job growth in the past year, but the ongoing strength of U.S. hiring (beating expectations of about 300,000 jobs) is still helping to shore up the economy, even as the Fed begins raising interest rates to try to tamp down inflation.

The gains were spread widely over many sectors, including construction (though retail was a black eye). More Americans reentered the labor force, including rising numbers of older people who may be “unretiring.”

On the flip side, a 10-cent increase in average hourly wage was still insufficient to keep pace with rising prices, meaning workers’ real income declined again. WSJ breaks down the latest numbers

President JOE BIDEN celebrated the good hiring news this morning from Rehoboth Beach, Del., where he touted the economy’s gains under his tenure while emphasizing that inflation remains a major drag on Americans. “We’ve laid an economic foundation that’s historically strong,” he said. “And now we’re moving forward to a new moment, where we can build on that foundation, build a future of stable, steady growth, so we can bring down inflation without sacrificing all the historic gains we’ve made.”

Biden’s word of the day (other than the now-obligatory RICK SCOTT boogeyman name-check) was “steady.” As the May report is starting to show, job growth is expected to settle into smaller gains than we’ve been seeing lately in the post-pandemic recovery. And Biden advised Americans that more moderation and fewer blockbuster numbers will actually be a good thing.

He’s right, but it’s a tough line to sell. That’s the takeaway from our colleagues Ben White and Kate Davidson, who reported today on this very dynamic: If hiring numbers and wages rise more slowly, they could actually help control red-hot inflation and force fewer dramatic interest rate hikes. This morning’s report was “close to the ideal scenario for many economists and Wall Street traders,” they write. It raised hopes that the Fed’s task of calming inflation without inciting recession might be feasible.

But policymakers don’t have much room for error: Not only is this a subtle, complex scenario to message politically, it could also be difficult to ensure that the economy doesn’t end up slowing too much.

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ALL POLITICS

AD WARS — The NRSC independent expenditure is going up with its first TV ad against JOHN FETTERMAN in the Pennsylvania Senate race, leaning into his BERNIE SANDERS ties to call him a far-left socialist ally, Holly Otterbein scoops. The $1.5 million ad buy will cover TV for the next couple of weeks, plus a shorter digital version. Watch the 30-second spot

— Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. TIM RYAN’s Ohio Senate campaign gave Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser the exclusive on his new ad hammering J.D. VANCE from a populist stance. The ad “highlights a five-year-old interview from Vance where the then-venture capitalist appeared to deflect blame away from free trade deals with countries like China for the loss of American manufacturing jobs,” and aligns Ryan with Trump’s positions on trade. Watch here

THE POLITICS OF CRIME — There’s a new wrinkle in the urgency for Democrats to get tougher on crime: A lot of the pressure now is coming from Democratic voters themselves, especially people of color in big cities where rising violent crime has taken a toll, NYT’s Alexander Burns reports from Baltimore. Now, from the Maryland gubernatorial race to Seattle, several Dem leaders/candidates are “casting aside the timidity that characterized Democratic arguments during the 2020 election, when much of the party was focused on root-and-branch reform of the criminal justice system in the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder.”

WHAT THEY’RE READING IN MIAMI — The Democratic-led Latino Media Network is buying more than a dozen Spanish-language radio stations across the country, including Miami’s very conservative Radio Mambi, “[c]reating a beachhead in a broadcast market often dominated by conservative or right-wing programming,” reports WLRN’s Tim Padgett.

PRIMARY COLORS — Rep. DUSTY JOHNSON’s (R-S.D.) vote in favor of creating an independent panel to investigate the Jan. 6 insurrection is the subject of a new attack ad against him from a MAGA super PAC ahead of next week’s primary, per WaPo’s Eugene Scott.

EMPIRE STATE CHAOS — N.Y. Mag’s David Freedlander has a fun story on Democrats’ intraparty scrambling in the wake of their state’s new congressional map: “Almost as soon as the lines were announced, a war of all against all broke out. Congressional members who had dutifully stood aside for one another at press conferences where they were referred to as ‘my friend’ and had co-signed statements and issued joint press releases were revealed to be barely able to contain their rivalries.”

CONGRESS

MARK YOUR CALENDARS — At a House Oversight hearing next week in the wake of the country’s recent mass shootings, witnesses will include survivors and victims’ parents from the recent massacres in Buffalo, N.Y., and Uvalde, Texas, NBC’s Ali Vitali scoops.

FOR YOUR RADAR — “A U.S. Capitol Police officer has been indicted for his role in a 2020 on-duty crash in Georgetown,” via Anthony Adragna.

 

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POLICY CORNER

CLIMATE OF UNCERTAINTY — The climate hawks’ knives are out for an unusual object of ire: the Biden administration’s own Climate Policy Office, headed by GINA MCCARTHY. Advocates and Democrats both inside and outside the administration tell Zack Colman that the office has gotten in the way of progress on a clean energy transition by prioritizing political considerations, micromanaging other agencies and shying away from legal battles. Critics “said the climate office’s modest accomplishments and seeming lack of urgency are failing to fill the gap” in congressional action, though the administration defended the office on the record as pushing hard on climate.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE NEW GOP — The Special Olympics USA Games, happening next week in Orlando, rescinded its Covid-19 vaccine requirement for the competition after Florida Gov. RON DESANTIS’ administration warned they could face $27.5 million in fines, ABC’s Jay O’Brien scoops.

ABORTION FALLOUT

AFTERNOON READ — From Hialeah, Fla., Kathy Gilsinan and Arek Sarkissian have a revealing POLITICO Magazine dispatch about a Sunshine State paradox: restrictive abortion policies in the state with the nation’s third-highest abortion rate. “This makes Florida an especially vivid laboratory to study the limits of the GOP’s push to restrict abortion,” they write. “At what point does the Republican-dominated legislature in Tallahassee, unaccustomed recently to negative consequences at the polls, discover it has awakened a constituency that had come to rely on abortion as an important option in navigating their lives?”

WAR IN UKRAINE

ON THE GROUND — In the eastern Ukrainian areas now being bombarded by Russia, every evacuation effort is a risk. Much of the population has already fled. “But tens of thousands of people remain caught in the crossfire with nowhere to go as the battle for the Donbas grinds on,” our colleague Christopher Miller reports from Raihorodok, with photographs by Anatolii Stepanov. “And they are paying a heavy price.” Trapped in basements for weeks or months, many of them have to decide whether to attempt a mad dash out in the open — if they’re even strong enough to go.

— As the war reaches its 100th day, heavy fighting is still raging in the key city of Sievierodonetsk. And a new British defense analysis assesses that Russia will likely capture all of Luhansk within a couple of weeks. More from the NYT

— Russia entrenches: “The ruble is now an official currency in the southern Kherson region, alongside the Ukrainian hryvnia,” per the AP. “Residents there and in Russia-controlled parts of the Zaporizhzhia region are being offered expedited Russian passports. The Kremlin-installed administrations in both regions have talked about plans to become part of Russia.”

RESPONSE FROM THE U.S. — In the month since the U.S. launched a private sponsorship program for regular Americans to help resettle Ukrainian refugees, 45,000 people have submitted applications to be sponsors, CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez scoops. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have arrived here under the program, been authorized to come or crossed the southern border into the U.S. “The number of applications and case approvals indicate the Uniting for Ukraine program could quickly become the largest official private refugee sponsorship initiative in U.S. history.”

THE VIEW FROM MOSCOW — Russian elites say President VLADIMIR PUTIN is playing the long game, betting he can outlast Western resolve in supporting Ukraine by deploying tools of economic warfare, like a grain blockade, Catherine Belton reports in WaPo.

 

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AMERICA AND THE WORLD

ANNALS OF INFLUENCE — “Former U.S. ambassador points finger in Qatar lobbying probe,” by AP’s Alan Suderman and Jim Mustian

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — After the U.S. made its preferences known, the U.K. is considering rolling back a deal that allowed a Chinese-owned company to buy a chip factory there, WSJ’s Stu Woo and Yang Jie scoop . “Behind the scenes, a diplomat from the U.S. Embassy in London told British officials in recent weeks that the factory—if back in British hands—could help the U.K. become a hub for making chips crucial to electric vehicles.”

PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — “Barry Sussman, Washington Post editor who oversaw Watergate reporting, dies at 87,” by WaPo’s Emily Langer: “If Mr. Sussman was deemed superfluous for the movie [‘All the President’s Men’] — a decision that deeply wounded him … — he was by all accounts the opposite in the actual events that inspired it.”

SPOTTED at Buckingham Palace on Thursday for Queen Elizabeth II’s Platinum Jubilee: Michael Bloomberg and Diane Taylor, Kevin Sheekey, Patti Harris, James Hooley, Adrienne Elrod, Phil Rucker, Sara Latham and Dennis Cheng.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Adam Gagen has been named global head of government affairs for fintech company Revolut. He most recently was VP for Europe, the Middle East and Africa government affairs at American Express.

STATE DEPARTMENT DEPARTURE LOUNGE — John “J.T.” Ice is leaving his role as deputy spokesperson at the State Department. Ice, a career foreign service officer, is heading to the U.S. Naval War College for a year, where he’ll be a student in their national security and strategic studies master’s program.

TRANSITION — Calley Hair is now press secretary for Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.). She covered government and politics for The Columbian in southwest Washington state until September and then worked as a freelance reporter in the Portland, Ore., metro area.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Melanie Lawhorn, comms director for Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), and Donovan Lawhorn, lead associate at Fannie Mae, welcomed Noah Lawhorn on May 21.

 

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