Playbook PM: The Roe ruling, one week later

From: POLITICO Playbook - Friday Jul 01,2022 05:27 pm

Jul 01, 2022

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Protesters fill the street in front of the Supreme Court after the court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

A new poll and reporting from America's suburbs provide a picture of where the country stands on the Supreme Court's recent ruling to overturn Roe v. Wade. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

It’s been a week since the Supreme Court ruled to overturn Roe v. Wade and we’re still putting together the full picture of what the decision will mean in the near and long term.

— New polling, via AP’s Hannah Fingerhut: “Twenty-two percent of U.S. adults name abortion or women’s rights in an open-ended question as one of up to five problems they want the government to work on, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.” The context: “That’s more than doubled since December, when an AP-NORC poll found a notable uptick in mentions of abortion from years before, likely in anticipation of the Dobbs ruling on abortion.”

— The midterm motivations: WSJ’s Aaron Zitner, Scott Calvert and Daniella Cheslow have the report from the all-important suburbs : “Interviews in politically competitive states in recent days found that while abortion rights are important to many suburban women, they are only one of several issues shaping the decision of how to vote. Some who disagree with the court ruling, and with GOP candidates who say they will move to tighten abortion access, say they plan to vote Republican nonetheless.” Here’s a taste of the responses:

MARY LEWIS in Philadelphia: “They should be trying to figure out how to lower the prices of gas and groceries right now. … That’s something I’m dealing with on a daily basis.”

DIANA GARBER in Woodbridge, Va.: “That would not have swayed my vote,’’ she said of the Roe ruling. “The border is number one, inflation is number two.”

MARY SCHULTZ in Atlanta “said she would likely vote for [GOP Gov. BRIAN] KEMP even though she doesn’t like the law he signed that allows people to carry a handgun in public without a license or background check, and she doesn’t like the abortion restriction he signed in 2019.” Here’s where things get interesting: “Despite her misgivings, Ms. Schultz said of Mr. Kemp: ‘I thought he did a good job in the last four years.’ At the same time, she says she is also likely to support Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK, a Democrat, this fall. And she hopes that if re-elected, Mr. Warnock will vote to expand abortion rights.”

— Staggering statistics, via NYT’s Elizabeth Williamson from Argyle, Texas, where she writes “even some anti-abortion adherents say their state is woefully unprepared for a likely surge in births among poor women.”

“One in 10 people of reproductive age in America lives in Texas, which will soon join half of all the states in outlawing almost all abortions.”
“The state’s maternal mortality rate is one of the worst in the country, with Black women making up a disproportionate share of deaths. The state’s infant mortality rate, at more than five deaths per thousand births in 2020, translates into nearly 2,000 infant deaths annually.”

— In the states: “Post-Roe, states struggle with conflicting abortion bans,” by AP’s Rebecca Boone

— The ripple effect: “Same-sex couples updating legal status after abortion ruling,” by AP’s Jay Reeves

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — House Majority PAC raised $19.7 million in Q2 of 2022. The context: The PAC raised $55 million in 2021, which amounted to its best non-election figure for a calendar year.

Happy Friday afternoon. Programming note: Playbook PM will be off Monday for the holiday. We’ll still be in your inboxes every morning.

NEWS YOU CAN USE — WaPo: “Here’s your July Fourth weekend weather forecast across the U.S.”

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HEADLINE OF THE DAY — “The 20-Somethings Who Help the 70-Somethings Run Washington,” by NYT’s Annie Karni: CASSIDY HUTCHINSON’s testimony this week laid bare an under-the-radar reality of D.C.: “The capital’s power centers may be helmed largely by the geriatric set, but they are fueled by recent college graduates, often with little to no previous job experience beyond an internship. And while many of those young players rank low on the official food chain, their proximity to the pinnacle of power gives them disproportionate influence, and a front-row seat to critical moments that can define the country. Sometimes, the interns themselves appear to be running the show.” (Flashback: “How the Jan. 6 panel broke through Trump allies’ stonewalling,” by Kyle Cheney and Nicholas Wu, from May 9)

HERE’S A FUN ONE — “Who Said It: Lucy Van Pelt or Joe Manchin?” by The New Republic … (Perhaps you can beat my 80% score.)

HIT THE ROAD, JOE — “Joe Biden to visit Cleveland on Wednesday to discuss the economy,” by Cleveland.com’s Sabrina Eaton

HEADS UP — Biden announced today that he will award the Presidential Medal of Freedom “to 17 people, including actor DENZEL WASHINGTON, gymnast SIMONE BILES and the late JOHN MCCAIN,” per the AP. See the full list

ALL POLITICS

VOTER FRAUD FILES — NBC’s Susan Carroll has a wild story from Mentone, Texas : “One of the worst-kept secrets in Loving County sits along the shoulder of a desolate stretch of state highway in the heart of the Permian Basin. It’s a sprawling ranch with a sunbaked adobe home that the Pecos River flooded out years ago, nestled near a trailer and a mobile home on stilts, all behind a padlocked gate.

“Eleven people are registered to vote at this address. One of them is Loving County Commissioner YSIDRO RENTERIA , who has been in office since 2011 and listed this property in December as his permanent address on his application to run for re-election, signed under oath. He and at least three relatives used the address to vote in the March primaries.

“The secret? ‘No one lives there,’ Loving County Sheriff CHRIS BUSSE , who also serves as the registrar of voters, said in May. ‘I can attest that I’ve been here since 2008 and there has never, ever, ever been any of the Renterias — not even Ysidro — occupying it.’ The old Renteria farmhouse is hardly the only open secret in this county, the least populated in the continental U.S. Voter registration has been suspiciously high for generations, driven by bitter feuds among a handful of prominent families fighting for control of the local government.”

BIG PROFILE — “The Michigan Democrat Who Could Solve Her Party’s Identity Crisis,” Adam Wren writes from Indianapolis for POLITICO Magazine about Michigan state Sen. MALLORY MCMORROW, who has offered an unlikely but energizing “playbook for beleaguered Democrats in a dispiriting election year.” In her own words:

— Would she want to replace 72-year-old Sen. DEBBIE STABENOW if she retires? “That is a conversation I haven’t even thought about yet. I haven’t slept in a month and a half.”

— On the Roe ruling: “It’s so disconnected from where a majority of people are. … Overnight, Michigan is going to be kind of the most extreme state.”

— On her place in the Democratic Party: “If there’s a huge generational advantage, it’s because Facebook came out when I was in college. We’ve always existed online. A lot of my career is because I had a personality online. And there’s no separation between who I am as a person and my work life, and I think that’s attractive.”

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JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

HOW CLOSE WE CAME — “‘Take me up to the Capitol now’: How close Trump came to joining rioters,” by WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf, Josh Dawsey and Carol Leonnig: “Some White House officials were out of the loop. Ordinarily, the White House’s legislative affairs staffers would be involved in a visit to Capitol Hill, but they were not briefed on any plans for him to go on Jan. 6, according to two senior administration officials. Aides to Vice President MIKE PENCE heard secondhand from other White House advisers that Trump wanted to go to the Capitol, but they were never given a formal plan and did not expect him to follow through, according to a Pence adviser with direct knowledge of their plans.”

SPLC GETS INVOLVED — The Southern Poverty Law Center has “provided testimony and research to the Jan. 6 committee, according to a senior counsel at the group,” Nicholas Wu reports for Congress Minutes. What they’re helping with: “Over the past few months, our SPLC analysts have met with Jan. 6 Select Committee staff and submitted nearly 40 pages of written testimony and research to document the involvement of extremists in the planning and preparation for the insurrection,” said MICHAEL LIEBERMAN , a senior policy counsel on hate and extremism at the SPLC, in a statement to POLITICO. “Our work has helped to document coordination between Trump, his allies and two extremist groups we’ve tracked for years.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

CLIMATE FILES — In light of the Supreme Court’s decision to curb the EPA’s authority on greenhouse gasses, states are springing into action, saying it’s more important than ever to tackle lofty climate ambitions at the local level. “New York and Colorado, for example, are on track to reduce electricity-related emissions 80 percent or more by 2030, compared with 2005 levels, according to new state scorecards from RMI,” NYT’s Maggie Astor writes. Why it’s working: “By removing partisan politics from community discussions about climate policy, it’s sometimes possible to reach a consensus that’s been difficult to achieve on a national level.”

STIFLING SOCIAL — Efforts to rein in social media are sweeping the nation. “State legislators have introduced more than 100 bills in the past year aiming to regulate how social media companies such as Facebook and Twitter handle their users’ posts, according to POLITICO’s analysis of data from the National Conference of State Legislatures,” Rebecca Kern writes. “The states’ efforts — in the absence of federal action — could test governments’ ability to regulate speech, while forcing some of the nation’s wealthiest tech companies to fight an array of legal battles against laws that could upend their business models.”

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IMMIGRATION FILES — “The business of smuggling migrants to the U.S.—such as the 53 who died after being left in a truck in San Antonio—has grown quickly with more illegal immigration and stronger links between smugglers and organized crime, according to U.S. and Mexican officials,” report WSJ’s José de Córdoba and Juan Montes in Mexico City and Juan Carlos Rivera in San Pedro Sula, Honduras. “Migrants from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador pay an estimated $1.7 billion a year to smugglers known as coyotes, according to a 2021 United Nations study. By far the biggest users of coyotes are Guatemalans.”

MENTAL HEALTH IN FOCUS — “He threatened to kill Joe Biden. His family says he’s a casualty of war,” by WaPo’s Paul Duggan: “Scott Merryman, a combat veteran, has struggled with PTSD for years after mistakenly shooting a child in Afghanistan. His latest mental break brought in the Secret Service.”

WAR IN UKRAINE

— “At least 20 people, including a child, were killed when Russia launched overnight missile strikes at a residential building and a recreation center near Odesa, southern Ukraine, officials said on Friday,” per CNN’s Rob Picheta . “The attack hit a housing block, killing 16 people, according to Ukraine's State Emergency Services. Another four people, including a child, died when a missile hit a community center, while a third missile landed in a field. At least 38 people were injured, responders said.”

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PLAYBOOKERS

BOOK CLUB — “From Chelsea Clinton to David Petraeus, Here’s What Politicos Are Reading This Summer,” from POLITICO Magazine: Chelsea Clinton, James Kirchick, Olivia Nuzzi, Pamela Paul, Newt Gingrich, Wesley Lowery, David Petraeus, Meghan Daum, Michael Fortner, Jason Mott, Keisha N. Blain, Min Jin Lee, Henry Louis Gates Jr. and Miguel Cardona give their “Zoom-Side” and “Poolside” reads.

TRANSITION — Jamie DeAtley is now a senior adviser for House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). He previously was deputy COS for Rep. Anthony Brown (D-Md).

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Gabe Brotman, SVP for portfolio management and investments at Axel Springer SE and a POLITICO alum, and Thomas Gensemer, chief strategy officer at Public Policy Holding Company, recently welcomed Ruby Brotman-Gensemer. Pic

Correction: Thursday’s Playbook PM misstated the end of the Supreme Court term. It officially ends Oct. 3.