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Presented by Blackstone: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington. | | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | | 
A red-hot labor market indicates that Fed Chair Jerome Powell could face a more difficult path to bring down prices. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo | WOWZA — This morning, we previewed that economists expected the July jobs report to show a slowing pace of job growth in the neighborhood of a quarter-million new hires, which the Biden administration was already pre-spinning as a “transition” to “stable and steady growth.” That’s not what we got. The numbers blew past all expectations, as the U.S. added a rip-roaring 528,000 jobs last month in the biggest leap since February. A couple of notable data points really laid down a marker for how far we’ve come: (1) The country has now made up the entirety of lost employment when the coronavirus pandemic hit in 2020, and (2) the new unemployment rate of 3.5% beats every month since that recession. Economist JUSTIN WOLFERS found that it’s actually the lowest unemployment in half a century. Details from the AP As always with economic data these days, the numbers are cause for both optimism and concern — and perhaps confusion above all. A shockingly robust jobs market is good news for American workers — and makes recession risks look much more remote at the moment. The July data caps a remarkable summertime stretch of positive developments (reconciliation, chips, falling gas prices, etc.) for a Biden White House that was mired in malaise for months. President JOE BIDEN took a victory lap in a statement this morning: “[I]t’s the result of my economic plan to build the economy from the bottom up and middle out. I ran for president to rebuild the middle class – there’s more work to do, but today’s jobs report shows we are making significant progress for working families.” But, but, but: A red-hot labor market indicates that the Fed could face a more difficult path to bring down prices. And with inflation still the principal financial irritant for many Americans, pocketbook relief could be a long way off. Notably, wages jumped 0.5% in July — putting more money in workers’ bank accounts, but also helping keep inflation elevated. “By defying expectations of an economic slowdown, the report will make it harder for the Federal Reserve to dial back the pace of rate increases at its meeting next month,” writes WSJ’s Gabriel Rubin . “Uncomfortably hot jobs report,” said JASON FURMAN . “Not the sweet spot.” BACK ON THE TRAIL — Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. JOHN FETTERMAN, whose stroke has kept him largely out of the public eye for months, is finally hitting the trail again in his Democratic Senate campaign, Holly Otterbein scooped . He’ll hold his first in-person event in Erie on Aug. 12. THEY’RE GOING TO WISCONSIN — We knew it was coming, but the RNC today officially voted to hold the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Backstory from the Journal Sentinel’s Bill Glauber on how the city landed it Happy Friday afternoon. Send us your favorite Wisconsin travel spots . Are you a fan of the Mars Cheese Castle in Kenosha? | | A message from Blackstone: Blackstone's investment approach is focused on the future. We identify companies that are shaping a stronger economy and help them accelerate their growth. We can deliver for our investors by strengthening the communities in which we live and work. Learn more. | | | THE WHITE HOUSE POTUS ON THE ROAD — Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will travel to eastern Kentucky on Monday in the wake of devastating flooding in the region, the White House announced. PRESIDENTIAL HEALTH UPDATE — Biden is still testing positive for the coronavirus nearly a week into his rebound case, doctor KEVIN O’CONNOR said in his latest memo . The president’s cough is almost entirely gone, and he’s still feeling good. CONGRESS RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES — The rapid progress of Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act has spurred a furious lobbying effort to try to change the bill, stop it or push it to victory, WaPo’s Yeganeh Torbati and Jeff Stein report . The health care and drug pricing provisions are the subject of perhaps the most intense pressure campaigns on both sides. “But one K Street lobbyist, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive talks, said the [tax] opposition among industry groups was muted in part because they had just last year been bracing for multitrillion-dollar tax hikes — rather than the diminished measures that have emerged.” — “What will vote-a-rama be like? It’ll be like hell,” Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) said today, per NBC’s Frank Thorp . — Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER said Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) drew a red line on narrowing the carried interest loophole, refusing to support the bill unless the provision was chucked, per Burgess Everett . — Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) has grown far less enthusiastic about the much-reduced bill: “You can do something significant with 50 votes,” he tells WaPo’s Tony Romm . “Does this bill do that? No. Might it be better than nothing? Yes.” Sanders sees it as a massive missed opportunity at a time when Democrats control Washington, especially compared to the bill’s major expansion of the social safety net in its 2021 form. And he hasn’t yet committed to voting for this iteration: “I’m taking a hard look … We’re going to have to see.” — The oil and gas industry is skeptical of a compromise Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) brokered that aims to soften the impact of a methane emissions tax, WSJ’s Katy Stech Ferek and Benoît Morenne report . “[S]ome of the industry’s biggest players are lining up against it — with one objection being that the tax isn’t needed given the industry’s voluntary efforts to reduce emissions.” — Several former EPA administrators, both Democratic and Republican, today lauded the bill as the “most significant piece of climate legislation in United States history,” per Bloomberg’s Jordan Fabian . SPARTZ PLUG — Ukrainian-born Rep. VICTORIA SPARTZ (R-Ind.) crashed a bipartisan congressional delegation to Ukraine in March — one of several instances in which her aggressive behavior and public criticism of the Ukrainian government has rankled her colleagues, report CNN’s Mel Zanona and Natasha Bertrand . “They worry she is undermining their efforts to stay united behind Ukraine at a pivotal moment and openly question where she is getting some of her information. … Meanwhile, multiple briefings from the Biden administration and private pleas from senior Republicans have done little to rein in Spartz’s vocal criticism.” Spartz says she supports Ukraine wholeheartedly and simply seeks accountability. Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN (D-Mich.): “I think there’s an open question of why she’s so openly saying something that’s so clearly aligned with Russian talking points.”
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today . | | | | | JUDICIARY SQUARE AFTERNOON READ — “As SCOTUS Mulled Bruen , the NRA Lobbied in the Shadows,” by Will Van Sant for The Trace and POLITICO Magazine: “A quarter of the briefs filed in support of the NRA came from organizations and individuals who have been paid by the gun group. Only one disclosed the connection.” BEYOND THE BELTWAY CLIMATE FILES — A phalanx of Republican state treasurers across the country are actively aggressively in a coordinated effort to stop efforts to fight climate change, NYT’s David Gelles reports in a thorough investigation. The Kansas nonprofit State Financial Officers Foundation is behind many of the moves, having launched a campaign under the Biden administration to shape policy and punish financial institutions trying to reduce emissions. “The Republican treasurers skirt the fact that global warming is an economic menace … Instead, they frame efforts to reduce emissions as a threat to employment and revenue, and have turned climate science into another front in the culture wars.” ALL POLITICS THE HOUSE LANDSCAPE — The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman made five ratings changes in House races today — three favoring Democrats, two favoring Republicans. Notably, Rep. PETER MEIJER’s (R-Mich.) now-open seat moved from toss-up to lean Democrat, and Rep. DON BACON’s (R-Neb.) seat moved from lean Republican to toss-up. PRIMARY COLORS — They may not be the biggest names in the race, but CARLINA RIVERA and YUH-LINE NIOU have surged to the fore of the Democratic primary for an open House seat in Manhattan and Brooklyn, NYT’s Dana Rubinstein reports . Leading the field alongside DANIEL GOLDMAN and Rep. MONDAIRE JONES, local officials Rivera and Niou “already represent parts of the congressional district, and have proven bases of support among voters and Democratic groups in the area — a likely boon in a late-summer contest where voter turnout and interest are expected to be low.” THE LATEST PROXY BATTLE — In Massachusetts, the latest tug of war within the Republican Party is taking place between Trump-endorsed GEOFF DIEHL and CHRIS DOUGHTY, a more moderate political neophyte and wealthy businessman who’s poured more than $2 million of his own money into his first gubernatorial campaign. Democratic nominee MAURA HEALEY is expected to win in the fall. “Yet the GOP contest is attracting attention from a growing cast of Republican characters with potential presidential ambitions — and turning a local face-off into a proxy war between the Trump wing of the party and more moderate New England Republicans fighting to keep their way of politicking alive,” Lisa Kashinsky reports . THIS TOWN — The Dispatch’s Alec Dent has a fun read on the Cicero Society debates, a popular gathering spot for a diverse group of attendees — including much of the new, young intellectual right in Washington. “At Dumbarton House, the done-up nouveau righters enjoy Bellinis and wine with little sweet potato biscuit ham sandwiches along with lavender and lemon cookies while their conversations mix and mingle: ‘I had to read up on critical race theory, because, you’ve got to, you know, know your enemy and stuff.’ … ‘ALEX JONES was right, the water is making the frogs gay.’ … ‘My coworker at work? Big time Jew.’ … ‘I start my Sunday by listening to TIM DILLON and then going to church.’ … ‘ALEC BALDWIN murdered someone.’”
| | | | INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY . | | | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD TAIWAN TRIP FALLOUT — China today cut off cooperation with the U.S. on climate, military and several other issues in retaliation for Speaker NANCY PELOSI’s trip to Taiwan. More from The Hill … The announcement HOSTAGE NEGOTIATIONS — Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV both said today that the U.S. and Russia are prepared to negotiate over the release of BRITTNEY GRINER and PAUL WHELAN, NYT’s Edward Wong and Ivan Nechepurenko report from Phnom Penh, Cambodia. But Lavrov warned the U.S. against making the details public, and “in a possible indication of how fraught the relations between the two countries are, the two men made their comments after sitting close to each other — but not talking.” VALLEY TALK DISINFORMATION DIGEST — In a change from past elections, Facebook/Meta is significantly winding down some of the public tools it’s used to combat disinformation on the platform or attempts at meddling by foreign actors, AP’s Amanda Seitz reports . “The pivot is raising alarm about Meta’s priorities and about how some might exploit the world’s most popular social media platforms to spread misleading claims, launch fake accounts and rile up partisan extremists. … Meta says that elections remain a priority and that policies developed in recent years around election misinformation or foreign interference are now hard-wired into company operations.” TRUMP CARDS FOLLOWING THE MONEY — DONALD TRUMP’s Save America PAC, which has largely been focused on promulgating fake claims of election fraud, paid $60,000 from April through June to fashion designer HERVÉ PIERRE BRAILLARD, who worked with first lady MELANIA TRUMP in the White House, USA Today’s Erin Mansfield reports . FEC filings show that the payments were listed as “strategy consulting,” though further details are unclear. POLICY CORNER IMMIGRATION FILES — D.C.’s request that the National Guard help out with the surge of immigrants being bused in from Texas and Arizona has been denied by the Defense Department, NBC’s Julia Ainsley scooped . DOD said the capital already has enough funding to handle the influx. — Meanwhile, Texas has started busing some of its migrants to NYC as well, per the Washington Examiner . PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION TRAGEDY IN LAFAYETTE PARK — “2 dead, 2 in critical condition after lightning strike near White House,” ABC PLAYBOOKERS TRANSITIONS — Rebecca Tallent is now VP and head of government affairs at Experience Anywhere Real Estate. She most recently was senior director of U.S. government relations at Dropbox, and is a John Boehner and John McCain alum. … Joey Nelson is now a regional director for external affairs for AT&T. He most recently was Triangle regional representative for Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).
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