Playbook PM: What to expect when you’re expecting votes

From: POLITICO Playbook - Tuesday Aug 23,2022 05:15 pm

Aug 23, 2022

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BREAKING — “Two ringleaders convicted on Whitmer kidnapping conspiracy charges,” by The Detroit News’ Robert Snell and Kara Berg in Grand Rapids, Mich.: “A federal jury Tuesday convicted two men accused of orchestrating a plan to kidnap Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER as prosecutors salvaged the largest domestic terrorism case in a generation.”

Democratic candidate Pat Ryan speaks during a campaign rally, Monday, Aug. 22, 2022, in Kingston, N.Y. Ryan is facing Republican Marc Molinaro in Tuesday's special election for New York's 19th Congressional District. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)

A new poll finds Democrat Pat Ryan trailing Republican Marc Molinaro in today's closely watched special election in the Hudson Valley. | Mary Altaffer/AP Photo

ELECTION DAY ANTICIPATION — While we await results tonight out of New York, Florida and Oklahoma, here’s what you should be reading about some of the most interesting races:

— In the closely watched special election in the Hudson Valley, a new Data for Progress poll finds Republican MARC MOLINARO leading Democrat PAT RYAN 53% to 45% — a result that, if it bears out, would calm some GOP fears about their expected red wave diminishing.

— CNN’s Isaac Dovere has a spicy dispatch on the state of the race between Reps. JERRY NADLER and CAROLYN MALONEY (and SURAJ PATEL ): “Maloney has told people privately that Nadler is ‘half dead’ and insinuated he won’t be healthy enough to finish another term if he wins, and people associated with her campaign have suggested that Nadler secretly briefly lost consciousness at a campaign stop last week. … Nadler allies, meanwhile, have whispered reminders about Maloney’s long history of odd remarks and demeanor, which ranges from being called kooky to not entirely sober.”

Dovere also recounts a scene in which Maloney ran down the sidewalk to escape his questions while her daughter played offensive lineman to block him.

— In POLITICO Magazine, Sabrina Rodríguez goes to Orlando to profile MAXWELL FROST, who’s running in today’s primary to replace Rep. VAL DEMINGS and seeking to become the first Generation Z member of Congress. Frost, a 25-year-old who drives for Uber part time and hasn’t finished college, has inspired a burst of youthful progressive energy for his campaign, with volunteers — and supporters like members of Congress — calling him the future of the Democratic Party. “But, in spite of all the money and endorsements, the ultimate question remains: Will the voters of Orlando back a baby-faced first-timer in a crowded race that includes a former member of Congress and long-time state senator?”

THE DEBT DECISION LOOMS — The White House’s long-anticipated announcement on canceling some student loan debt is indeed coming Wednesday, Bloomberg’s Nancy Cook and Josh Wingrove report. It’s expected to include an extension of the pause on repayments through the end of the year.

If the White House ends up announcing a plan to cancel $10,000 in student loan debt for people making under $125,000, it would cost about $300 billion or $330 billion over a decade, a new Penn Wharton estimate finds, per Cook. (In a progressive dream world, where the administration forgave $50,000 per borrower, the cost could rise to $980 billion.)

The administration is also considering loan forgiveness for students who had Pell Grants, on top of the $10,000 per borrower, per CNN’s MJ Lee and Phil Mattingly. But WaPo’s Jeff Stein and Danielle Douglas-Gabriel report that President JOE BIDEN hasn’t yet made a final decision. And “[m]any of the key parts of the student debt cancellation plan appear to be undecided,” add Michael Stratford and Eugene Daniels.

Good Tuesday afternoon.

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THE WHITE HOUSE

STAFF SHUFFLE — Biden’s “body man,” STEPHEN GOEPFERT, is leaving the White House to join the Transportation Department, CNN’s Phil Mattingly reports. Goepfert flies under the public radar, but he’s one of the president’s most significant aides as typically the first and last staffer Biden sees each day. He was also the first openly gay person in the role. JACOB SPREYER, who’s been the White House receptionist, will replace Goepfert. Biden’s inner circle “came to view Goepfert as a central piece of Biden’s day-to-day life, and a trusted and loyal adviser in his own right.”

CLASSIFICATION CORNER — The NSC has launched a major yearlong initiative to overhaul the government’s approach to classification, as the Biden administration seeks to keep fewer secrets from the public and facilitate easier intelligence sharing, Bryan Bender reports . “But the bigger question may be how willing President Joe Biden is to go to battle with the CIA, the Pentagon and other intelligence agencies that have resisted his predecessors’ attempts or watered down their executive orders to compel them to share more information with other agencies and the American public.”

ON THE HOME FRONT — With Biden on vacation, the traditional summertime White House renovations are underway. CNN’s Kevin Liptak has details on the changes: “long-sought upgrades to the basement Situation Room, repaving the driveway, cleaning the windows, replacing stone pavers and sprucing up the South Lawn are among the projects.” He also notes that Biden put in a small, gold-framed TV behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office.

CONGRESS

PAGING JOE MANCHIN — Senate Environment and Public Works Chair TOM CARPER (D-Del.) sounds somewhat cautious about the permitting reform deal to which Democratic leaders agreed to get Manchin (D-W.Va.) on board with the reconciliation bill. Carper said today he’s “reserving judgment” and “we’ll find some areas where we agree,” but “I just don’t want us to make the changes in permitting that will undermine our ability to fight climate change,” Burgess Everett and Anthony Adragna report in Congress Minutes.

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ALL POLITICS

UP FOR DEBATE — Republican MEHMET OZ has agreed to five debates in the Pennsylvania Senate race, but Democratic Lt. Gov. JOHN FETTERMAN hasn’t yet committed to any of them — drawing criticism from the Oz camp, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Julian Routh reports. The Oz campaign says Fetterman is hiding from voters amid questions about his health; the Fetterman campaign says he’ll debate, but “we’re not going to do this on Oz’s terms.” The matter will come to a head by Sept. 6, when KDKA-TV in Pittsburgh has proposed the first debate. So far, only Oz has agreed to it.

MUCK READ — The Washington Free Beacon’s Chuck Ross digs into an incident from Fetterman’s tenure as mayor of Braddock, when a town solicitor claimed that Fetterman asked a cop to find a police report on his political opponent — and then Fetterman cast the tie-breaking vote to fire the solicitor. “Fetterman’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment about whether the earlier criticism of Fetterman was a factor in [LAWRENCE] SHIELDS’s firing.”

FOLLOWING THE MONEY — Though BLAKE MASTERS has staked out strong anti-China positions in his Arizona GOP Senate campaign, but through his work with PETER THIEL, Masters “has participated in multiple funding rounds for a Chinese biomedical startup — including alongside Chinese Communist Party investors,” reports The Daily Beast’s Roger Sollenberger. “He also had business ties to a second, U.S.-based medical company when it was honored by a CCP-backed organization.” His campaign didn’t respond for comment.

WHAT’S NEXT FOR CHENEY — There are some notable conservative names who have lent financial support under the radar to Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.), CNBC’s Brian Schwartz reports. Funders include multiple Koch network groups, Red Right Media and other former Trump consultants.

POLLS OF THE DAY — A new YouGov/LX News poll has good and bad news for Democrats when it comes to younger voters, Noah Pransky reports. The bad news: Dems’ spate of recent legislative accomplishments doesn’t seem to have dislodged disappointment with Biden, as progressives under 30 still say the administration hasn’t lived up to expectations. But, but, but: They still might turn out in November. Recent NBC polling found that 43% of adults under 35 were very interested in the midterms — up 4 points from 2018, when youth turnout spiked.

— Seventy-one percent of Americans want stricter gun laws, including half of Republicans and a majority of people who live in a home with guns, per a new poll from the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, the AP and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Majorities support raising the minimum age to buy a gun to 21, banning AR-15s and similar semiautomatic weapons and imposing universal background checks. But 52% of the country thinks “both reducing mass shootings and protecting the right to own guns for personal protection [are] highly important.”

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BEYOND THE BELTWAY

AILING AMERICA — The end of many pandemic-era federal aid programs is pushing many vulnerable Americans off an economic cliff at a moment when rising prices are already squeezing pocketbooks, NYT’s Jim Tankersley reports from Portland, Ore. Food banks are once again feeling a strain like they did in the early days of the pandemic, and “almost no one, in Washington or on the front lines of helping vulnerable people across the country, expects another round of federal aid even if the economy tips into a recession.”

— One cliff that might be avoided: The Biden administration is likely to soon extend waivers for low-income Americans to access baby formula through federal assistance, Meredith Lee scooped. That would provide a crucial lift for WIC users, who make up about half of all the nation’s formula purchases.

— “One state declined a simple tweak to its summer meals program. Thousands of kids paid the price,” by NBC’s Elizabeth Chuck in Kirksville, Mo.: “Missouri was the only state to not allow grab-and-go meals, resulting in up to 97% fewer kids meals being distributed than last summer in some areas.”

HEADS UP — “Former Tennessee House Speaker Glen Casada, Cade Cothren indicted on federal corruption charges,” by the Nashville Tennessean’s Melissa Brown and Adam Friedman

WAR IN UKRAINE

APOCALYPSE NOW — As the war reaches the six-month mark, NYT’s Marc Santora and Andrew Kramer have a frightening look at the status of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant taken over by Russians. It’s increasingly the subject of an international frenzy as warnings of disaster rise. “Standing between the world and a nuclear calamity are the Ukrainian workers who know the plant intimately … Today, under Russian occupation, the plant employees are both hostages and essential workers — Ukrainian engineers duty bound to prevent disaster while working under the watchful eye of Russian snipers.”

THE NEXT TRANCHE — The U.S. on Wednesday will announce another batch of aid to Ukraine — this time $3 billion focused on more long-term investments in weapons, drones, training and more, AP’s Lolita Baldor and Matthew Lee report. That “will likely keep more American military troops in Europe into the future.”

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AMERICA AND THE WORLD

DEAL OR NO DEAL — The Iran nuclear deal pendulum keeps swinging — this time back toward a more positive sign for those who want the agreement resurrected. Reuters’ Steve Holland and Arshad Mohammed scooped that Iran has let go of some of its demands, including ending international atomic inspections. “We think they have finally crossed the Rubicon and moved toward possibly getting back into the deal on terms that President Biden can accept,” a top U.S. official told them.

But, but, but: WSJ’s Laurence Norman : “My info is that despite the frenzied speculation out there, the conclusion of an #IranDeal is not imminent and, as Washington said last night, not yet certain. Very low expectations that this is wrapped up in the next few days. A bit longer is possible.”

TO RUSSIA, WITH CONCERN — Senators from both parties sent a letter today urging Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN to classify MARC VOGEL, an American teacher imprisoned in Russia, as “wrongfully detained,” per CNN’s Jennifer Hansler.

VALLEY TALK

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Ex-Twitter exec blows the whistle, alleging reckless and negligent cybersecurity policies,” by CNN’s Donie O’Sullivan, Clare Duffy and Brian Fung: “The disclosure, sent last month to Congress and federal agencies, paints a picture of a chaotic and reckless environment at a mismanaged company that allows too many of its staff access to the platform’s central controls and most sensitive information without adequate oversight. It also alleges that some of the company’s senior-most executives have been trying to cover up Twitter’s serious vulnerabilities, and that one or more current employees may be working for a foreign intelligence service.”

PLAYBOOKERS

MEDIA MOVE — Idrees Kahloon has been named Washington bureau chief for The Economist. He most recently has been a Washington correspondent.

STAFFING UP — Claire Viall is now deputy assistant secretary of Education for higher education in the Office of Legislation and Congressional Affairs. She previously was a senior adviser for education policy for the House Education and Labor Committee.

TRANSITIONS — Tom Newell is now VP of government affairs at yes. every kid. He most recently was CEO of Salt and Light Leadership Training, and is a former Oklahoma state representative. … Mariel Murray is now a specialist in natural resources policy (Native American issues) at the Congressional Research Service. She previously was staff chief for natural resources and environment (U.S. Forest Service) at the USDA’s Office of Budget and Program Analysis. … Siobhan Pierce is now senior associate, operational and organizational transformation, public sector at Grant Thornton. She previously was a program officer with the Women’s Democracy Network at the International Republican Institute.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — McKinley Scholtz, VP at No Labels and a Trump White House alum, and Quentin Scholtz, federal government relations manager for HP and a Mitch McConnell alum, welcomed James Louis Scholtz on Aug. 8.