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Presented by Amazon: The unofficial guide to official Washington. | | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) speaking with supporters. | Scott Olson/Getty Images | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | ALMOST THERE — 6 days left until Election Day. … 27,031,295 early votes cast as of 11:23 p.m. Tuesday, per the United States Elections Project . CLOSING TIME — There are just six days left in this chaotic midterm, which means campaigns around the country are readying their final pitches for voters. Candidates traditionally use their last flight of ads as a “closing argument” — a chance to tell voters who they are, what they plan to do if they win and, most importantly, ask for their vote. It’s the executive summary of their campaign, typically delivered direct-to-camera in a bid to make one final connection with voters. But this year has been anything but typical. As those final ads have started trickling into Playbook HQ (with a big assist from POLITICO campaign guru Steve Shepard) we’ve seen some candidates observe the old pieties, while others just continue bludgeoning their opponents. Here’s some of what has caught our eye so far, and we’ll be sure to share other notable ads as they roll in over the coming days: — MANDELA BARNES: In this final ad exclusively obtained by Playbook, the Democratic Senate nominee in Wisconsin doesn’t even appear, aside from the legally mandated stand-by-your-ad line. Otherwise, it’s 30 seconds of RON JOHNSON attacks. The ad focuses on the GOP incumbent’s tax record, making the case that the former plastics magnate “looks out for himself, not us.” — BLAKE MASTERS: Sharing a table with his wife and kids, the Arizona Republican focuses his Senate pitch on crime and inflation. Democratic Sen. MARK KELLY “just votes for JOE BIDEN's agenda every time,” he says. “Catherine and I grew up here. We're sick of seeing things go in the wrong direction.” — TIM RYAN: The Democrat seeking to move from the House to the Senate delivers his tagline, “Ohio needs an ass-kicker, not an ass-kisser,” from a barroom stool after a series of attacks on GOP opponent J.D. VANCE play on a TV above. — KIM REYNOLDS: Iowa’s Republican governor tries to seal her reelection with this groaner: “Here in Iowa, we may get up early. But we’re not woke.” — TONY EVERS: The Wisconsin Democrat leans into his soft-spoken personality as he makes his final case for a second term as governor. He pledges not to cut school or police funding, “and I’ll never stop searching for good ideas from both parties to improve Wisconsin.” — JOHN FETTERMAN: The Democratic Senate nominee dons his signature hooded sweatshirt and opts not to mention his stroke recovery as he asks Pennsylvanians for their vote. GOP rival MEHMET OZ “lies for your vote,” he says over bouncy acoustic guitar. “I’ll never break your trust.” — LEE ZELDIN: The Republican congressman angling to unseat New York Gov. KATHY HOCHUL sticks to his signature issue of crime in his final-week ad . It features the family of a 93-year-old woman who was murdered last year in Syracuse by a 23-year-old woman who was released without bail. “Kathy Hochul let my family down,” a relative says. “We would be much safer with Lee Zeldin.” — ELAINE LURIA: The incumbent in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District is the rare Democrat to put democracy, and DONALD TRUMP, front-and-center in her campaign pitch . “If you believe the 2020 election was stolen, I'm definitely not your candidate,” the Jan. 6 select committee member intones. “But if … you want a congresswoman who will always stand up for what's right, then I'm Elaine Luria, I approve this message, and I am your candidate.” — DON BACON: The Republican incumbent in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District pivots in his final spot from “serving as a check and balance against Biden and [NANCY] PELOSI's inflationary spending” and “supporting our police” to highlighting his local efforts to build a new runway at Offutt Air Force Base, repair flood damage, and modernize Omaha’s international airport. Bacon’s ad struck us because it adheres to the old adage that all politics is local, but it also connects to the dominant national Republican message about inflation and crime. For Democrats, that national message has been inconsistent — especially on the economy — and it shows in this final tranche of candidate ads. That messaging disparity has prompted some side-eye from notable Democrats, who are fretting publicly and privately that “Democrats have failed to coalesce around one effective message with enough time to stave off major losses in the House and possibly decisive defeats in the tightly contested Senate,” according to a report from NYT’s Lisa Lerer, Katie Glueck and Reid Epstein , In lieu of a cohesive economic narrative, Dems have opted for a “kitchen-sink approach,” the trio writes — seizing on a variety of GOP threats, from elimination of abortion rights to the erosion of democracy to the dismantling of the social safety net. None of it seems to have stuck, though, and that has prompted a variety of on-the-record recriminations. One of the most compelling voices is Michigan Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN, now fighting for her political life against a well-funded Republican who has hammered her on the rising cost of living. “The truth is, Democrats have done a poor job of communicating our approach to the economy,” she said, adding that “if you can’t speak directly to people’s pocketbook and talk about our vision for the economy, you’re just having half a conversation.” THIS ISN’T HELPING — On Tuesday afternoon, the following message was posted to the White House Twitter account: “Seniors are getting the biggest increase in their Social Security checks in 10 years through President Biden's leadership.” But by connecting the COLA hike to presidential leadership, the Biden Twitter shop executed a truly stupendous self-own. For nearly 50 years, Social Security benefit hikes have been pegged to the Consumer Price Index — i.e., inflation. So, congrats? Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. What closing-argument political ads have caught your eye? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza .
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Watch employees talk about their career journeys at Amazon. | | | SURVEY SAYS — As Republicans around the country continue to sow doubt about the 2020 election — and the electoral process generally — 60% of voters continue to trust the federal election system, according to our new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll. That trust figure rises to 65 percent when respondents were asked about their own state's election system. Unsurprisingly, there’s a partisan divide: Democratic voters trust the federal and state election systems at 80% and 79%, respectively, while Republicans hit 43% and 56%. And when it comes to potential challenges to next week’s results, 46% percent of Republicans and 51% of Democrats think GOP candidates in their state might challenge the results compared to about a third who said the same of Democratic candidates. Toplines … Crosstabs
— More poll results: “Voters remain gloomy despite recent economic gains,” by Brittany Gibson
More poll results later today in Playbook PM. | 
| They’re household names — Sen. BERNIE SANDERS, Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN, Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ and others — who are among the Democratic Party’s most potent fundraisers and most effective base motivators, particularly when it comes to young voters. Yet they’ve been strategic about their campaign travel in 2022, Nick Wu and Marianne LeVine report this morning — and that’s for obvious reasons: Their fellow Democrats are wary of being associated with their party’s left flank, particularly in a year when Republicans appear to be on the march. In the words of Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.), the Congressional Progressive Caucus chair who conducted a nationwide political tour: “I’m never gonna go into a district if somebody doesn’t want me there.” That doesn’t mean, however, that progressives are sitting at home. Warren headlined a rally for Wisconsin Democrats in Madison last week, though marquee Senate candidate MANDELA BARNES didn't attend, citing a scheduling conflict. Sanders is headed to the state this week to drum up the youth vote — again, without Barnes. Ocasio-Cortez and fellow Squad member Rep. AYANNA PRESSLEY (D-Mass.) have also traveled recently to boost Democrats, also at an appropriate distance from any live candidates. Nick tells Playbook the progressives have chosen to “campaign with a light touch,” fully aware of the national dynamics. But he said there are some exceptions: “I’ve got my eye on Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District, where Sanders is going to be on Sunday.” He’s kicking off a canvass event for SUMMER LEE, a progressive Democrat locked in a surprisingly close race in Pittsburgh against a Republican opponent who shares a name with the retiring Democratic incumbent. Sanders’ star power could help turn out the party base — and remind them to vote for the actual Democrat. BIG PICTURE THE VIEW FROM 1600 PENN — As Biden tries to bring home the Dems’ midterm hopes, he is zooming in on singular issues (like prescription drug prices and infrastructure) rather than the broader ones that are driving much of the conversation in the closing weeks (antisemitism, election denialism, the attack on PAUL PELOSI and ELON MUSK’s Twitter takeover). “Biden now has to strike a balancing act,” our colleague Jonathan Lemire reports this morning . “He can not ignore the rise of political violence and disinformation as his campaign travel finally ramps. That’s true even as aides plan to have him focus on pocketbook issues to underscore how his administration has and will battle inflation and to draw sharp contrasts with the Republicans’ economic plans.” — In Florida on Tuesday night, Biden focused on “a warning that Republican control of Congress will jeopardize Social Security and Medicare,” Gary Fineout writes from Tallahassee , a message which he notes “is tailored to the state, where older voters play a pivotal role in elections. But it’s different than the closing message of Florida Democrats, who have focused primarily on abortion and gun control.” And in perhaps his most biting remark, earlier in the day Biden tabbed GOP Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS as “Trump incarnate.” — Related read: “Biden pitchman Landrieu hawks infrastructure and hope,” by AP’s Josh Boak in Elm City, N.C. SIREN — “Pa. Supreme Court orders counties to set aside undated and wrongly dated mail ballots and not count them,” by the Philly Inquirer’s Jonathan Lai and Jeremy Roebuck PARTY FOR ONE — Several states next week are positioned to become places where one party controls the governorship and the legislature. “One-party rule is generally regarded as a good thing for the party in power, while divided government, the argument goes, allows for key checks and balances. But there are perils to unilateral power,” our colleague Lisa Kashinsky writes this morning . “It can bring dormant intraparty fault lines to the surface, torch relationships among lawmakers and splinter the party in power’s voter base. In some cases, unified control can lead to the sorts of insurmountable impasses and general gridlock it’s expected to avoid.” ON THE AIRWAVES — “Ads targeting transgender kids flood swing states,” by Marissa Martinez and Madison Fernandez: “America First Legal, launched by longtime Donald Trump aide STEPHEN MILLER, has plastered airwaves and mailboxes with the issue ahead of the election — all without mentioning candidates currently running for office, as both groups are registered nonprofits.” REPORTING REFRESHER — “Why does The Associated Press call U.S. elections?” by AP’s Meg Kinnard BATTLE FOR THE SENATE KNOWING ADAM LAXALT — “The Heir: In Nevada, a G.O.P. Candidate Sheds His Political Inheritance,” by NYT’s Matthew Rosenberg in Las Vegas: “If there’s a mantle he picks up from his grandfather, PAUL LAXALT, a former Nevada governor and senator and early [RONALD] REAGAN ally, it is a desire to push forward the party’s next iteration — the one ushered in by former President Donald J. Trump.” BEHIND EVERY MAN — “From Yale to Newsmax, Usha Vance Has Helped J.D. Vance Chart His Path,” by NYT’s Joseph Bernstein and Katherine Rosman BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE WHERE REPUBLICANS ARE AIMING — “GOP super PAC targets blue House seats in Illinois, New York,” by Ally Mutnick: “The Congressional Leadership Fund is going on air with seven-figure buys targeting Democratic Rep. SEAN CASTEN in suburban Chicago and the Long Island seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. KATHLEEN RICE. … Neither district has seen much outside spending before the final days of the midterms, and President Joe Biden carried both of them by double-digits in 2020.” MAD LIBS HEADLINE OF THE DAY — “An evangelical GOP congressional candidate in Texas wrote a novel about Anne Frank finding Jesus,” by the Jewish Telegraphic Agency’s Andrew Lapin BATTLE FOR THE STATES NO LONGER THE QUIET PART — “Candidate promises Republicans can take permanent control of Wisconsin,” by WaPo’s Patrick Marley in Madison, Wis.: “Hinting at his plans to overhaul how elections are run, the Republican running for governor of Wisconsin this week said his party would permanently control the state if he wins. ‘Republicans will never lose another election in Wisconsin after I’m elected governor,’ construction executive TIM MICHELS told supporters Monday at a campaign stop.” TRUST ISSUES — “Most candidates for top election posts say no to hand counts,” by AP’s Nicholas Riccardi: “Of 23 [Republican secretary of state candidates] who responded to the survey, 13 clearly said they opposed implementing a statewide hand count of ballots instead of a machine count. GOP candidates in Arizona and New Mexico have previously endorsed the idea of a hand count. But others cautioned it was a dangerous road to follow.” YOU DON’T SEE THIS EVERY DAY — In a rare joint ad, Alaska Democratic gubernatorial candidate LES GARA and independent gubernatorial candidate BILL WALKER teamed up to promote the new ranked-choice voting system in the state and rally against incumbent GOP Gov. MIKE DUNLEAVY. “With ranked-choice voting, it’s critical that all of our supporters rank a second choice in the race for governor,” says HEIDI DRYGAS, the lieutenant governor running mate for Walker. “We’re uniting because our teams agree: Alaska can’t afford four more years of Mike Dunleavy.” More from Alaska Public Media … Watch the ad A NEW YORK MINUTE — “Hochul crisscrossing NYC with crime-fighting message in final days of campaign,” by Joseph Spector in Albany — Related read: “Can Lee Zeldin Reinvent His Way to the N.Y. Governor’s Mansion?” by NYT’s Nicholas Fandos HOT POLLS — New Hampshire: Republican DAN BOLDUC leads Democratic Sen. MAGGIE HASSAN 48% to 47%, per a new poll from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics . And Republican KAROLINE LEAVITT leads Democratic Rep. CHRIS PAPPAS, 51% to 45%, in the 1st Congressional District. — Arizona: Democratic Sen. MARK KELLY leads Republican BLAKE MASTERS, 47% to 46%, per a Fox News poll . — Nevada: Republican ADAM LAXALT leads Democratic Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO, 50% to 45%, per an Emerson College Polling/KLAS-TV/The Hill poll . — Pennsylvania: Democrat JOHN FETTERMAN and Republican MEHMET OZ are tied at 47%, per a Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll . — Wisconsin: Republican Sen. RON JOHNSON leads Democrat MANDELA BARNES, 48% to 46%, per a Fox News poll .
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THE HOUSE and THE SENATE are out. | | | | | | DON’T MISS A THING FROM THE MILKEN INSTITUTE’S MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA SUMMIT: POLITICO is partnering with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Digital Future Daily" newsletter with insider reporting and insights from the Milken Institute's Middle East and Africa Summit happening November 17-18. Hundreds of global leaders will convene, highlighting the important role connection plays in advancing global well-being. Whether you’re in-person at the event or following online, sign up for this special edition newsletter for daily coverage of the event. SUBSCRIBE TODAY . | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
|  A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket's two side boosters, left and rear center, return to Cape Canaveral for landing about eight minutes after liftoff in Cape Canaveral, Fla., Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2022. | John Raoux/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | CONGRESS PELOSI LATEST — WaPo’s Aaron Davis, Carol Leonnig, Marianna Sotomayor and Paul Kane have a discomfiting report on how the Capitol Police learned of — and potentially could have avoided — the break-in to Speaker NANCY PELOSI’s San Francisco home and the assault on her husband, PAUL: Capitol Police cameras first installed at the home nearly a decade ago caught the attack unfolding, but no one was watching the feed at the time. “If the Capitol Police were going to stop an attack at the home of any member of Congress, they had perhaps the best chance to do so at Pelosi’s, according to several current and former law enforcement officials, many of whom spoke to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity because the break-in remains under investigation.” — “Capitol Police chief pushes for ‘more resources’ after Paul Pelosi assault,” by Nicholas Wu — “‘Take them all out’: New details from Paul Pelosi assault emerge as suspect arraigned,” by Jeremy White in San Francisco — “Members of Pelosi family to hear 911 call and see bodycam footage,” by CNN’s Jamie Gangel and Jeremy Herb LETTER OF RECOMMENDATION — “House Republicans Demand CBP Commissioner Resign,” by The Daily Caller’s Henry Rodgers MORE POLITICS 2024 WATCH — The latest signal that Biden is ready to rumble in the presidential election again comes from WaPo’s Michael Scherer and Tyler Pager , who report that the president and first lady JILL BIDEN have been “meeting since September with senior advisers at the White House residence to prepare a potential 2024 reelection campaign.” Their sources describe the cabal as a “very small group” that includes the likes of ANITA DUNN, MIKE DONILON, JEN O’MALLEY DILLON and RON KLAIN. They do note, however, that even the small group is preparing for every possible scenario, even one where Biden would “step back at the last moment.” JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH THE GEORGIA INVESTIGATION — The Supreme Court on Tuesday denied Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM’s (R-S.C.) bid to block a subpoena from an Atlanta grand jury seeking his testimony in its investigation into Trump’s effort to influence the 2020 election results. “The court, with no noted dissent, agreed that Graham can be required to provide testimony to a grand jury about matters that aren’t related to his official congressional work. Anything on his legislative business would be off limits, the high court’s order said,” Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein write . JUDICIARY SQUARE CALLING FOR CLARITY — “Federal judge blasts the Supreme Court for its Second Amendment opinion,” by CNN’s Ariane de Vogue: “A federal judge based in Mississippi has released a scorching order expressing frustration with the Supreme Court’s Second Amendment opinion issued last summer and ordered the Justice Department to brief him on whether he needs to appoint an historian to help him decipher the landmark opinion. The opinion in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen changed the framework judges must use to review gun regulations. … Judge CARLTON REEVES – who is considering a case concerning a federal statute prohibiting felons from possessing firearms – said he is not sure how to proceed.”
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After starting as a process assistant, Ama learned about Amazon’s Technical Academy and was able to follow her passion and become a software engineer. Amazon is committed to providing free skills training to 300,000+ employees by 2025. Watch Ama discuss her career journey. Sponsored by Amazon   | | | POLICY CORNER THE FORMULA FUROR — “Biden officials admit there's still a problem getting baby formula to shelves,” by Meredith Lee Hill: “Some GOP lawmakers are also threatening to cut funding from the FDA during the lame duck session at the end of the year if the agency doesn’t come up with a better explanation of its monthslong delays in addressing food safety concerns at the formula plant.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD FOR YOUR RADAR — “Saudi Arabia, U.S. on High Alert After Warning of Imminent Iranian Attack,” by WSJ’s Dion Nissenbaum: “Saudi officials said Iran is poised to carry out attacks on both the kingdom and Erbil, Iraq, in an effort to distract attention from domestic protests that have roiled the country since September. The White House National Security Council said it was concerned about the warnings and ready to respond if Iran carried out an attack.” HOW IT HAPPENED — “Before OPEC+ Production Cut, Saudis Heard Objections From a Top Ally, the U.A.E.,” by WSJ’s Summer Said and Dion Nissenbaum THE LATEST IN ISRAEL — “Israel’s Netanyahu appears to hold lead in election,” by AP’s Josef Federman in Jerusalem THE LATEST IN BRAZIL — “Brazil’s Bolsonaro declines to concede, but OKs transition,” by AP’s Diane Jeantet and Carla Bridi in Brasilia THE ECONOMY UNDER PRESSURE — Fed Chair JEROME POWELL is in a full-on sprint to push interest rates high enough to curb inflation. From Wall Street to Washington, he’s hearing an increasingly loud cry: Slow down. “With the Fed poised to deploy another supersized rate hike on Wednesday, financial markets are showing signs of strain, the housing market is reeling from the highest mortgage rates in two decades and economists are cranking up their forecasts for a recession that could throw millions of people out of work,” Victoria Guida writes this morning . — Related read: “Corporate America Has a Message for the Fed About Inflation,” by NYT’s Jeanna Smialek and Isabella Simonetti THE PANDEMIC THE NEXT PANDEMIC — “‘This Is Our March 2020’: Children’s Hospitals Are Overwhelmed by R.S.V.,” by NYT’s Emily Baumgaertner: “A drastic and unusually early spike in R.S.V., a respiratory infection that impedes airways, is overwhelming pediatric units across the United States, bringing long waits for treatment and prompting hospital systems to rearrange staffing and resources to meet the demand.” ABORTION FALLOUT THE STATE OF THINGS — “State abortion bans prove easy to evade,” by Ruth Reader: “Orders for abortion pills to telemedicine nonprofit Aid Access have increased in states that have imposed restrictions since the Supreme Court gave states permission to do so in June, according to data provided by REBECCA GOMPERTS, the Dutch physician who runs the group.” VALLEY TALK MUSK READS — “U.S. exploring whether it has authority to review Musk’s Twitter deal,” by WaPo’s Faiz Siddiqui, Jeff Stein and Joseph Menn — “Top firm advises pausing Twitter ads after Musk takeover,” by Rebecca Kern — “Elon Musk’s Twitter Faces Exodus of Advertisers and Executives,” by NYT’s Kate Conger, Tiffany Hsu and Ryan Mac in San Francisco
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, “At a Crossroads: America’s Defense Strategy” on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America’s national security. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Glenn Youngkin admits he “ didn’t do a great job ” on that Pelosi remark. Chasten Buttigieg weighed in on Elon Musk’s potential Twitter verification plan . Amy Klobuchar’s hottest club is … showing Meet the Press? Jon Tester is counting down to Election Day in a … unique way . By god, that’s Hillary Clinton’s music … The Joe Biden-Rick Scott beef is alive and well . Jeff Zucker is eyeing a new gig . FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Jackie Kucinich is joining the Boston Globe as Washington bureau chief. She previously was Washington bureau chief for The Daily Beast. STAFFING UP — Jonathan "Jonny" Powell will be senior adviser and speechwriter for Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman. He most recently was director of speechwriting at the Department of Homeland Security and is a Nancy Pelosi alum. TRANSITIONS — Christina Wilkes is now press secretary at HUD. She most recently was the press secretary for the GSA. … Jenny Kai is now senior manager of government and public affairs at the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association. She previously was senior program officer at the Asia Society Policy Institute. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Playbook’s own Eli Okun and Bethany Irvine … Pat Buchanan … former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker … Jonathan Stahler of Sen. Chris Coons’ (D-Del.) office … Jen Dlouhy … Makan Delrahim … Roger Dow … Fox News’ Cam Cawthorne … AARP’s Bill Walsh … John Sampson of Microsoft Azure … Melanie Tiano of T-Mobile … BBC’s Anthony Zurcher … Aaron Weinberg of Israel Policy Forum … Kevin Cirilli … WaPo’s Adam Kushner and Ava Wallace … APCO Worldwide’s Jay Solomon … Natalie Johnson of Firehouse Strategies … Catherine Lyons … Matt Bisenius of the American Cleaning Institute … Daniela Pierre Bravo … Kayla Benker … NYT’s Celeste Lavin … EPA’s Nicole Berckes Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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