The clock starts ticking on McCarthy’s speakership

By Rachael Bade

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Speaker Kevin McCarthy has effectively ensured that his time as speaker will be limited by restoring the one-member motion to vacate. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

KEVIN McCARTHY finally got the gavel — but in the process, he gave away the House.

The concessions the California Republican awarded his critics to secure his position all but ensure that he will operate as speaker in name only. For the first time in decades, rank-and-file members will have as much power as their leader (more on that below). That reality could blow back on moderates and could ultimately undercut Republicans politically: Despite their desire to use their newfound majority to focus attention on President JOE BIDEN, GOP infighting is going to dominate the Congress.

The chaotic past week is just a prelude to what is shaping up to be equally unstable next two years in the House. Here are four dynamics we’ll be watching:

1. The Freedom Caucus’ new veto power. McCarthy’s decision to give Freedom Caucus members three of the nine seats on the House Rules Committee easily represented the single most significant surrender of leadership power that we’ve seen in decades — one that will have major repercussions for the lower chamber.

Since the 1960s, the panel — which oversees the floor process and decides which amendments are considered —has been viewed as the “speaker’s committee,” with each member handpicked by the leader and genuflecting to his or her will.

Now, conservatives eager to flex will dominate that panel and operate independently of leadership, effectively wielding veto power over legislation. Given the committee’s partisan breakdown — nine seats for the GOP, four for Democrats — Republicans can afford to lose only two votes. That means that the three Freedom Caucus members on the panel could band together with Democrats to tank a bill even before it hits the floor. They’ll also be able to demand changes to legislation, undercutting the careful work by other committee chairs who may not agree with their views.

McCarthy’s camp has sought to downplay this change by arguing that (1) conservatives could kill any bill anyway because of their slim four-seat House majority and (2) it’s better for them to hash out their disagreements with conservatives in committee before bills head to the floor.

But “that misses the ballgame,” as one astute former House GOP leadership source told us: It “doesn’t take into account that the power of the floor isn’t just about what reaches it, but also what doesn’t — and what processes are permitted via amendment.”

2. Tough votes for moderates and swing-seat representatives. There’s a reason why moderate lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have been largely shielded from having to take votes on lightning-rod issues when their party is in the majority. That reason is leadership’s control of the Rules Committee.

For many years, leadership has used the Rules panel to ensure that third-rail proposals never see the light of day. Democrats were spared from voting on Medicare for All or abolishing ICE. Republicans avoided votes on major cuts to Social Security or abolishing the IRS. Why? To protect members of the majority party from having to take votes that could become major political liabilities, make them the targets of high-profile partisan pundits or spur primary challenges.

That buffer is gone.

“The ‘normal’ GOP member will now have to take a lot of hard-right votes that they will feel pressured from their crazy base to support,” the former House GOP leadership source told us. “Members can no longer be protected from politically toxic conservative wish lists.”

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3. The coming GOP battle over defense spending. As part of his deal with the right, McCarthy promised to hold a vote on a budget that will balance the deficit in a decade and cap discretionary spending levels at fiscal 2022. That could mean a 10% cut to the Pentagon.

Already, the GOP’s defense hawks are up in arms at the prospect. “Most of us won’t vote for cuts to defense,” Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.) told my colleagues this week. Added Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.), who also sits on the Armed Services panel: “There’s a ton of defense hawks that are necessary to get to the math of 218.”

What’s more, it also goes against what GOP voters want. A December poll by the Vandenberg Coalition, a conservative foreign policy-focused nonprofit that advocates for defense spending, found that 87% of Republican voters support increased military spending. Read the exclusive poll results

Notably, Republican leaders — including McCarthy himself — have championed increases to defense spending in recent years, and have blasted Biden on the topic. Watch for administration officials to use this issue against McCarthy in the coming months; they already have a list of his comments ripping them a new one for doing exactly what his members are proposing now.

4. McCarthy’s ticking clock. As far as we know, the “motion to vacate” has never successfully ousted a speaker, even though it’s been in existence for 200 years.

That may change this year.

In December, we reported that even McCarthy’s allies privately agreed that his time as speaker would be limited. Since then, he’s effectively ensured that will be the case by restoring the motion to vacate, enabling a single unhappy member to trigger a vote to oust him. McCarthy can only lose four votes; conservatives can show him the door any time they want.

We saw this week how difficult it was for McCarthy to muster enough votes to get the gavel — and that was after years of trying to win over his detractors. Now, he’ll have to do the even more difficult job of governing: passing spending bills, dealing with the debt ceiling — and yes, unfortunately for him, negotiating with Democrats, which will jeopardize his standing on the right.

How long will he last? Rep. DAVE JOYCE cracked a funny line with elements of truth in it during a 2 a.m. CNN interview just after McCarthy won the gavel. Asked how long it would take for conservatives to use the “motion to vacate,” the Ohio Republican replied: “Tomorrow?”

We think McCarthy will probably have a few months. But the fiscal deadlines looming this year — spending bills and a debt ceiling increase, with shutdowns and even a national default possible — mean that his hourglass is already starting to run out of time.

This morning, on CNN’s “State of the Union,” conservativeRep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) was asked whether he’d trigger the motion to vacate if Republicans go for a clean debt ceiling increase. “I’m not going to play the what-if games on how we’re going to use the tools of the House to make sure that we enforce the terms of the agreement,” Roy said. “But we will use the tools of the House to enforce the terms of the agreement.”

Related reads:

— “With McCarthy elected speaker, House GOP readies for fiscal showdowns,” by WaPo’s Tony Romm

— “Speaker Drama Raises New Fears on Debt Limit,” by NYT’s Jim Tankersley

— “McCarthy Starts Out With Agenda Already Hemmed In by Dissidents,” by Bloomberg’s Mike Dorning, Billy House and Steven Dennis

— “Closest of friends, Mark Meadows and Jim Jordan split over Kevin McCarthy,” by WaPo’s Paul Kane

Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. How long do you think the McCarthy era will last? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

SUNDAY BEST …

— Rep. SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.) on whether he’d recuse himself from the new subcommittee overseeing law enforcement probes while he himself is part of the DOJ Jan. 6 investigation, on ABC’s “This Week”: “Why should I be limited — why should anybody be limited — just because somebody has made an accusation? Everybody in America is innocent until proven otherwise. … That doesn’t stop you from doing your job.”

— Rep. NANCY MACE (R-S.C.) on whether she’ll vote for the rules package Monday, on CBS’ “Face the Nation”: “I support it. But what I don’t support is a small number of people trying to get a deal done or deals done for themselves in private, in secret … And so I am on the fence right now about the rules package vote tomorrow for that reason.”

— Rep. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Texas) on calling the Never Kevin holdouts “terrorists,” on “State of the Union”: “Things get heated and things get said. … It’s pretty obvious that it’s meant as a turn of phrase. … To the extent that I have colleagues that were offended by it, I sincerely apologize to them. I don’t want them to think I actually believe they’re terrorists.”

— House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES on his relationship with McCarthy, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “Kevin McCarthy and I have had some positive, forward-looking conversations over the last few weeks, and I’m hopeful that we’ll be able to build upon those conversations to do the right thing for the American people.”

— Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) on defense cuts, on “Fox News Sunday”: “There are places I may actually agree with Republicans on defense cuts. I mean, I think it is absurd that we’re going to have almost a trillion-dollar defense budget. And if they’re going to look at that and make certain cuts, then let’s have that conversation.”

— Rep. JAMES COMER (R-Ky.) on whether McCarthy can make it through this Congress without a motion to vacate, on “Meet the Press”: “I’m not going to say there won’t be one person who tries to abuse that motion, but I’m confident that McCarthy’s going to be able to be given the green light to govern.”

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TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

— “When Supply, Not Demand, Is the Problem,” by N.Y. Mag’s Eric Levitz

— “The Senate Needs More Kyrsten Sinemas,” by The Atlantic’s Conor Friedersdorf

— “Time is not on Ukraine’s side,” by Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates in WaPo

— “You’ll Miss Gerontocracy When It’s Gone,” by The Atlantic’s Franklin Foer

— “I Chose to Compete as My True, Trans Self. I Win Less, but I Live More,” by Iszac Henig in the NYT

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Hundreds of migrants and their supporters march through the streets of downtown El Paso on Saturday ahead of President Joe Biden's visit. | Andres Leighton/AP Photo

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. WHAT TO READ BEFORE BIDEN’S TRIP: Biden will arrive in El Paso today into a region struggling to handle a surge of migrants — many of whom are still reeling from his recent policy moves. His announcement this week restricting options for immigrants from several countries amounted to “a deflating and lonely moment” for a man who’s been forced to shift to the center on immigration politics, WaPo’s Maria Sacchetti and Nick Miroff report. In El Paso, Biden will find migrants straining city resources and newly fearful of what his policies will portend, AP and Bloomberg report. And across the border, where many migrants will now be trapped in Mexico, a humanitarian crisis looms, per the L.A. Times’ Kate Linthicum.

How everyone’s preparing:

• Ahead of Biden’s arrival, officials in El Paso have started arresting migrants sleeping outside, videos obtained by NBC and CBS reveal — including one instance now under investigation in which a Border Patrol agent slammed a man to the ground, drawing outrage from advocates.

• Fourteen House Republicans from Texas wrote to Biden that they’re glad he’s finally visiting the border, but they want him to take “concrete actions to secure our southern border,” the Washington Examiner’s Anna Giaritelli reports.

• Mexico announced a big arrest last week of the son of JOAQUÍN “EL CHAPO” GUZMÁN, but experts tell AP’s Christopher Sherman, Mark Stevenson and Fabiola Sánchez that it “was an isolated nod to a drug war strategy that Mexico’s current administration has abandoned rather than a sign that President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR’s thinking has changed.”

2. GARLAND’S DEATH PENALTY DECISIONS: “Suspect in Bike Path Killing Faces First Death Penalty Trial Under Biden,” by NYT’s Benjamin Weiser: “[O]n Monday, [SAYFULLO] SAIPOV’s trial is scheduled to begin in Federal District Court in Manhattan — the first federal death penalty trial under the Biden administration. [AG MERRICK] GARLAND’s decision to continue pursuing the death penalty for Mr. Saipov, an Uzbek immigrant, suggests a nuanced approach, one in which he has been reluctant to withdraw the threat of capital punishment in one type of case in particular: terrorism-related offenses.”

3. HOW IT’S PLAYING: Back home in Western Colorado, GOP Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT’s supporters have mixed feelings about her, AP’s Jesse Bedayn reports from Rifle. Some remain fully behind her as a conservative fighter, while others who voted for her say they wish she would take things down a notch. Boebert herself says she’ll be “more focused on delivering the policies I ran on than owning the left.” But don’t expect her slim margin of victory to change her much: “A lot of those on the left have said: ‘Look at your election, are you going to tone it down, little girl?’” she adds. “I’m still going to be me.”

4. OPIOID FILES: “Maine’s Prisons Taught Washington a Crucial Lesson in Fighting Opioids,” by Krista Mahr in Warren, Maine, for POLITICO Magazine: “Something new is happening in Maine’s prisons, and officials in Washington are watching closely. … [A]bout 40 percent of inmates across the prison system are now administered drugs to treat opioid use disorder. … [F]atal overdoses among people leaving prison have dropped 60 percent since the program started. … Today, the Office of National Drug Control Policy released the first-ever federal guidance to help correctional facilities evaluate their medication-assisted treatment programs, a move aimed at expanding access across the country.”

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5. BROOKLYN BOYS IN CHARGE: “Schumer, Jeffries team up to bring the bacon home to New York,” by Joseph Spector in Albany: “They have a lengthy list of goals to help their native New York. Jeffries, 52, who views [Senate Majority Leader CHUCK] SCHUMER, 72, as a mentor, said he wants to work with state leaders on their shared goal of affordable housing for New York City and tackling crime problems that Republicans seized on during last year’s election.”

6. KNOWING MAGGIE HABERMAN: “Maggie Haberman, the Confidence Man’s Chronicler,” by The New Yorker’s Katy Waldman: “Born to a publicist and a newspaperman, she grew up in the kind of privileged Manhattan set that Trump spent his early days envying. As an undergraduate at Sarah Lawrence, Haberman studied creative writing and child psychology. The subjects may have primed her for the task of deciphering Trump … As the 2024 race gears up, the Confidence Man and his chronicler have become each other’s context, bound together and propelled by desires that both are and aren’t their own.”

7. SCOTUS WATCH: The news that Justice KETANJI BROWN JACKSON is writing a book likely places her on a growing list of Supreme Court justices who are raking in lucrative book deals, making some experts “uneasy with the appearances,” Bloomberg’s Greg Stohr reports. Though justices have long written books, the hefty sums are new, as is the trend of justices authoring tomes soon after joining the court.

— Insider’s Katherine Long and Jack Newsham have a big investigation into the Supreme Court Historical Society, similar to the recent NYT story but with an additional emphasis on how “the extensive network of donors and trustees with vested interests before the court was rife with right-wing religious activists and corporations.”

8. MUSK READ: “Cigars and Cry Rooms: Meet Elon Musk’s New ‘Cutthroat’ Twitter VP,” by The Daily Beast’s Kate Briquelet and Noah Kirsch: “Before ELON MUSK made her one of his most powerful lieutenants at Twitter, ELLA IRWIN spent four years at Amazon, where her intensity inspired both respect and terror. The pressure was ceaseless; her emails landed at all hours. … Some of Irwin’s former subordinates described her as acutely hierarchical and therefore unlikely to push back against Musk. Already, however, she and her boss have fallen out of lockstep—though perhaps as the result of dysfunctional communication rather than principled disagreement.”

9. COMING SOON: “New variant XBB.1.5 is ‘most transmissible’ yet, could fuel covid wave,” by WaPo’s Fenit Nirappil and Lauren Weber

DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID.

Matt Gaetz is still fundraising off his Kevin McCarthy opposition.

Chris Sununu and Kristi Noem are both keeping the door open to presidential runs next year.

SPOTTED: VP Kamala Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff at Saturday night’s performance of “A Soldier’s Play” at the Kennedy Center.

TRANSITIONS — The American Immigration Council has added Dara Lind as a senior fellow, Mina Devadas as chief development officer and Kimberly Serrano as director of the Center for Inclusion and Belonging. Lind previously was a reporter with ProPublica and Vox. Devadas was previously with the Society to Improve Diagnosis in Medicine. Serrano previously was with the California Immigrant Policy Center. … Maria Tripplaar is now of counsel in Ballard Spahr’s government affairs and public policy group. She previously was staff director and chief counsel for the House Veterans’ Affairs Committee. … Chris Sweet is now VP of government affairs at Atlas Crossing. He most recently was deputy chief of staff/legislative director for Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.). …

… Beth Schoenbach has been named VP of comms at Autos Drive America. She previously was a director at Golin. … Clay Doherty will be managing director of strategic convening at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. He previously was managing director at High Touch Engagement and is a USAID alum. … Molly Spaeth has joined the comms team of sustainable consumer product company Chewie Labs. She most recently worked on executive comms at Amazon.

ENGAGED — Alex Davidson, director of public affairs at the Beer Institute and a Paul Mitchell alum, proposed to Stephanie Arbetter, senior manager of social and content marketing for premium brands at Marriott International, before Christmas at Boston Public Garden with their not-so-mini bernedoodle Teddy and family in tow. They met at Stephanie and Erica Arbetter’s infamous annual Yom Kippur breakfast years ago and started dating in 2021. Instapics

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: White House’s Anita Dunn and Andrew Bates … John Podesta … Heather Podesta … Adam Hechavarria … María Peña of the Library of Congress … Elizabeth López-Sandoval of USAID … David Chavern … POLITICO’s Joel Kirkland … Nirvi Shah … Fox News’ Casey Stegall … Jane Lucas … former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos … former Reps. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.), Charlie Bass (R-N.H.) and Richard Pombo (R-Calif.) … Avra Siegel … Andy Smarick … James Reed ... Angelo Mathay ... former Ohio Gov. Bob Taft ... Boeing’s Nicole Tieman ... Deborah Mazol … WaPo’s Emma Brown … Ted Leonsis … David P. White … Florida International University’s Brian Van Hook

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.

Correction: Saturday’s Playbook misidentified the party of Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

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