Lessons from Ronna McDaniel’s RNC romp

From: POLITICO Playbook - Saturday Jan 28,2023 04:51 pm
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By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

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WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 27: Demonstrators participate in a protest against the police killing of Tyre Nichols near the White House on January 27, 2023 in Washington, DC. Tyre Nichols, a 29-year-old Black man, died three days after being severely beaten by five Memphis Police Department officers during a traffic stop on January 7, 2023. Memphis and cities across the country are bracing for potential unrest after the city released video footage of the beating to the public. (Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)

Protesters demonstrate outside the White House last night. | Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

DRIVING THE DAY

TYRE NICHOLS LATEST — “Video shows police kicking, pepper spraying, beating Tyre Nichols after traffic stop,” by the Memphis Commercial Appeal’s Katherine Burgess: “The videos show officers kicking Nichols at least twice in the face, striking him at least three or four times with a baton in the upper body area, punching him at least four times to the face, punching him at least two more times to the upper body area and kicking him at least twice in the abdomen. … The camera feed is dark for several minutes as the sound of a struggle ensues, Nichols calling again for his mother. There is the sound of a man moaning and trying to cry out.”

The aftermath: The brutal footageof the beatings that led to the 29-year-old Black man’s death sparked protests across the country, and demonstrators shut down a major bridge and blocked traffic in Memphis. The protests were largely reported as peaceful, despite officials’ concern that the case could spark violent unrest.

At the White House: “The footage that was released this evening will leave people justifiably outraged,”President JOE BIDEN said in a statement last night. Biden spoke with Nichols’ mother and stepfather. He also called again for Congress to pass the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act as a policy response.

In Congress: Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.), who led unsuccessful policing reform negotiations for Republicans after Floyd’s death, called Nichols’ death “the result of a clear, vile abuse of power” and said it should “serve as a call to action for every lawmaker in our nation at every level.”

The man we lost: “Tyre Nichols remembered as beautiful soul with creative eye,” by AP’s Adam Beam, Travis Loller and Claire Galofaro

Re-elected Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel holds a gavel while speaking at the committee's winter meeting in Dana Point, Calif., Friday, Jan. 27, 2023. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

The vote tally for Chair Ronna McDaniel's reelection victory more or less tracked with members’ public commitments going into this week’s RNC meetings. | Jae C. Hong/AP Photo

RNC POSTMORTEM — Capping weeks of GOP-on-GOP warfare, RONNA McDANIEL was reelected to a rare fourth term as RNC chair yesterday. Scratch that — she trounced her main challenger, HARMEET DHILLON, 111 to 51. (MIKE LINDELL got four votes; one member wrote in former New York Rep. LEE ZELDIN.)

The vote tally more or less tracked with members’ public commitments going into this week’s RNC meetings in Southern California — and it exposed Dhillon’s late claim of being within striking distance of victory as simply ridiculous.

Yes, Playbook ourselves came to buy some of the pro-Dhillon hype, and in the interest of accountability, we share some lessons learned from this saga:

1. YOU CAN’T BLUFF YOUR WAY TO VICTORY: Why were the Dhillon camp’s predictions so far off? Either they had grossly exaggerated her numbers or they were lied to by RNC members who promised to vote for her then did not.

The latter happens all the time in secret ballot races. But after McDaniel won, a member of Dhillon’s own whip operation tweeted that the final outcome “exactly reflected” the internal numbers they had.

Translation: They lied. Was it to promote a narrative of momentum in a bid to make her candidacy seem more viable and thus flip more votes? While the insurgent arrived at Dana Point with fewer than 30 public commitments, top aide CAROLINE WREN insisted on Wednesday Dhillon was about a dozen votes shy of an upset, and just before midnight Thursday, Dhillon told Playbook she had flipped another 10 votes and seemed genuinely to believe she was on the cusp of victory.

We have to wonder if Dhillon’s team presented Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS with such bloated numbers ahead of his Thursday comments calling for a “fresh face” atop the RNC — a move Dhillon and allies used to further promote the illusion of momentum.

 

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2. IT’S AN INSIDE GAME: After spending three days with a bunch of RNC members, it became clear that lots of them like and respect Dhillon and plenty of others were open to change atop the RNC after the GOP’s poor midterm showing.

But Dhillon made a tactical error by initially running an outside game focused on revving up the grassroots instead of lobbying RNC members personally. As one RNC member told us, the chair election is more like a high school popularity contest than a traditional campaign, and her last-minute scramble to mend fences in the hotel hallways wasn’t enough.

“Harmeet’s campaign hurt her,” said outgoing Florida GOP Chair JOE GRUTERS, a McDaniel supporter who said he received about 250 calls, emails and texts per day from angry voters because of Dhillon’s campaign. “I’ve been a chairman for 22 years … and for people to call me RINO trash? … I always find it a better campaign tactic to win people over with honey.”

3. TRUMP’S GRIP CONTINUES SLIPPING: Much of the pre-election coverage focused on what the outcome of the chair race would say about DONALD TRUMP’s hold on the GOP. The answer to that was never going to be simple: Allthree declared candidates maintain close relationships with the former president, none ran as openly anti-Trump, and he himself never endorsed in the race.

But there were clearer signals down ballot: Two candidates he endorsed for RNC leadership positions — co-chair and treasurer — lost, Semafor’s Dave Weigel pointed out on Twitter. And Arizona GOP Chair KELLI WARD, a Trump diehard and election denier, got walloped in her bid for secretary, losing 118-36.

Meanwhile, we heard plenty of RNC members express excitement this week about having a fresh face to lead the party in 2024 — and both McDaniel and Dhillon made pains to emphasize they would keep the committee neutral in primaries. That reflected a shift from two years ago, members said, when the party confab held just days after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack still very much felt like a Trump-loving reunion.

“He is losing support literally on a daily basis,” said one RNC member, who praised Trump’s four-year term but said “people just realize his time is up.”

4. NO KUMBAYA FOR THE GOP: Forget “Dems in disarray.” Between the RNC race and the House speakership fight a few weeks ago, the Republican infighting has reached Hollywood levels.

How bad did it get exactly? Just read this excerpt from Natalie Allison’s tick-tock of how McDaniel beat Dhillon: “Wren, who has been Dhillon’s top adviser in her campaign for chair, told [former Georgia state Rep. VERNON] JONES: ‘Everyone knows you’re here fucking whipping votes for Ronna.’ She proceeded to call him a ‘fucking sell out,’ adding that ‘the grassroots will never support you again.’”

The drama may be here to stay: While McDaniel and Dhillon pledged to work together no matter how the race ended, influential Dhillon backer CHARLIE KIRK, for example, told reporters that “if [Ronna] wins, I can’t in good faith tell my audience, our members or our students to continue to support the RNC, financially or otherwise.” (Notably, McDaniel told Fox News after the vote her fourth term would be her last.)

Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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LIVE FREE OR DIE — As Trump heads to New Hampshire today to kick off his presidential campaign in earnest, he’s picked STEPHEN STEPANEK as a senior adviser for the state, Lisa Kashinsky scooped. Stepanek is the outgoing state party chair who also co-chaired Trump’s 2016 campaign in the state. But after Republicans’ recent struggles in the Granite State, Stepanek’s selection “will do little to quell concern among some of Trump’s former allies in the state about the seriousness of his operation.”

And questions are rising about Trump’s ability to win New Hampshire again, Reuters’ Tim Reid reports. Of 10 prominent former Trump backers in the state, only three tell him they’re on board again for 2024. “The rest cited exhaustion with Trump's controversies, exasperation at the constant drama, and a desire to move on from Trump's loss in 2020 with a fresh face.”

Still, a new poll out yesterday from the New Hampshire Journal/Coefficient finds Trump leading DeSantis37% to 26% in a potential presidential primary. Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU comes in third at 13%. Interestingly, in a general election, Sununu would crush Biden in New Hampshire, 48% to 36%, while Biden and Trump are statistically tied.

Reminder: Trump will hold a rally tonight in Columbia, S.C., his first since November. …“Trump Tries a New Campaign Tack: Small-Scale,” by NYT’s Michael Bender in Columbia … “Ahead of Columbia rally, Trump struggles to regain momentum with GOP,” by The State’s Joseph Bustos and Alex Roarty

BIDEN’S SATURDAY — The president has nothing on his public schedule.

VP KAMALA HARRIS’ SATURDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule.

 

JOIN POLITICO ON 2/9 TO HEAR FROM AMERICA’S GOVERNORS: In a divided Congress, more legislative and policy enforcement will shift to the states, meaning governors will take a leading role in setting the agenda for the nation. Join POLITICO on Thursday, Feb. 9 at World Wide Technology's D.C. Innovation Center for The Fifty: America's Governors, where we will examine where innovations are taking shape and new regulatory red lines, the future of reproductive health, and how climate change is being addressed across a series of one-on-one interviews. REGISTER HERE.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Abdul Wasi Safi, right, speaks as his brother, Sami-ullah Safi, left, listens during a news conference Friday, Jan. 27, 2023, in Houston. Wasi Safi, an intelligence officer for the Afghan National Security Forces who fled Afghanistan following the withdrawal of U.S. forces, was freed this week and reunited with his brother after spending months in immigration detention. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

A former Afghan intelligence officer, Abdul Wasi Safi, who fled the country and feared for his life speaks yesterday after being freed from U.S. immigration detention. | David J. Phillip/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

1. ON THE COUNT OF THREE: Rep. KEN BUCK (R-Colo.) yesterday became the third Republican to say he won’t vote to block Rep. ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) from the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY is getting dangerously close to losing too many GOP votes on the matter now. “I think that we should not engage in this tit for tat,” Buck said, per NBC’s Isabelle Schmeler.

2. 2024 WATCH: “DeSantis advisers prepare for potential presidential run, explore staff options,” by WaPo’s Hannah Knowles: “Advisers to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are actively preparing for a possible presidential run, according to two Republicans with knowledge of the conversations who described meetings and preliminary staffing moves — the latest indication that DeSantis is laying a foundation for a national campaign. DeSantis’s political team has already identified multiple potential hires in early primary states such as New Hampshire and Iowa … PHIL COX and GENERRA PECK — two key members of DeSantis’s 2022 reelection team — are involved in ongoing talks about 2024.”

“Nikki Haley’s Campaign-in-Waiting Starts Its Engines,” by The Dispatch’s David Drucker: “[S]he could make her 2024 presidential bid official as soon as next month. [NIKKI] HALEY possesses the architecture of a robust, White House campaign operation through the Stand For America political action committee and Stand For America, a 501(c)(4) policy-focused political nonprofit organization. Trusted senior aides are already on board, prepared to step into positions directing political strategy, fundraising, communications, grassroots outreach, and policy development.”

3. DOCU-DRAMA: Among the materials found at Biden’s Delaware residence and taken by the FBI are his personal notebooks from his time as VP, NBC’s Carol Lee, Sarah Fitzpatrick and Peter Nicholas scooped. “The notebooks were seized because Biden’s writings on some of the pages relate to his official business as vice president, including details of his diplomatic engagements during the Obama administration, and may reference classified information.”

Mea culpa: Former VP MIKE PENCE said he accepted “full responsibility” for the classified materials found at his place. “Those classified documents should not have been in my personal residence, mistakes were made.”

But as the National Archives ask former leaders of the country to scour their residences for other documents, it has no greater legal force than saying “please” to compel them to do so, NYT’s Michael Shear reports.

4. THE TALENTED MR. SANTOS: “Justice Department asks FEC to stand down as prosecutors probe Santos,” by WaPo’s Isaac Stanley-Becker, Jonathan O’Connell and Emma Brown: “The Justice Department has asked the Federal Election Commission to hold off on any enforcement action against [Rep.] GEORGE SANTOS … as prosecutors conduct a parallel criminal probe … The request, which came from the Justice Department’s Public Integrity Section, is the clearest sign to date that federal prosecutors are examining Santos’s campaign finances. The request also asked that the FEC provide any relevant documents to the Justice Department.”

Related read: “Who would work for Rep. Santos? Capitol Hill is watching closely,” by WaPo’s Joe Heim and Meagan Flynn

5. THE TALENTED MR. McGONIGAL: In the wake of former senior FBI official CHARLES McGONIGAL’s arrest on charges of taking money from a Russian oligarch, Insider’s Mattathias Schwartz reveals that he was also leading a double life privately. He had an extramarital affair with a woman who thought, mistakenly, that he was already or nearly divorced. And the woman “remembers McGonigal carrying large amounts of cash” on multiple occasions.

Related read: “How an Oligarch May Have Recruited the F.B.I. Agent Who Investigated Him,” by NYT’s Rebecca Davis O’Brien

6. JIM JORDAN MAKING MOVES: “GOP-led committees plan to issue subpoenas in Biden probes without consulting Democrats,” by CNN’s Zachary Cohen: “The plan, articulated to GOP members of the select subcommittee by its top Republican Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio during their first meeting Friday, will expedite the subpoena process as both panels move forward with probes of the Biden administration … In doing so, Republicans are taking a page from Democrats and former Oversight Committee chairman, Democratic Rep. ELIJAH CUMMINGS of Maryland.”

 

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7. MIDTERMS AUTOPSY: “The Data-Driven Strategy Behind Democrats’ State-Level Success in 2022,” by N.Y. Mag’s Eric Levitz: “The party has simply become better at politics. … [The States Project’s] money enabled Democratic legislative candidates in [several] states to avail themselves of resources traditionally reserved for federal campaigns. Among these was rigorous ad testing.”

8. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: The Biden administration is weighing “a complete ban on U.S. investments in certain high-tech areas of the Chinese economy,” House Foreign Affairs Chair MICHAEL McCAUL tells Gavin Bade. Such a move would go even further to take on Beijing by neutering American business relationships with entire Chinese tech sectors than the U.S. has previously ventured.

Yesterday, the U.S. officially struck a deal with Japan and the Netherlands to block some of their semiconductor chip equipment from getting exported to China, per Bloomberg’s Cagan Koc and Jenny Leonard. “The agreement is a victory for Biden, who seeks to constrain Beijing’s military advancement by cutting the country off from the world’s tiniest semiconductors.”

Related news: “China, U.S. spar at WTO meeting over disputes,” by Reuters’ Emma Farge

9. WORLD WAR III WATCH: In a strikingly dire memo yesterday, Air Mobility Command head Gen. MIKE MINIHAN warned troops that he predicts the U.S. will be at war with China by 2025, NBC’s Courtney Kube and Mosheh Gains scooped. The four-star Air Force general predicts that Beijing could move on Taiwan next year, when both Washington and Taipei are consumed by elections.

CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 17 keepers

A political cartoon is pictured.

Luckovich - Atlanta Journal Constitution

GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza:

“Tripping for the Planet: Psychedelics and Climate Activism,” by Amber Chen in Atmos: “With more states legalizing psychedelics, activists are interested in exploring their power. The Frontline examines whether that’s a good idea.”

“The Weight-Loss-Drug Revolution Is a Miracle—And a Menace,” by The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson: “How the new obesity pills could upend American society.”

“White Fright,” by Ben Fountain in The New York Review of Books: “A. M. Homes’s new novel might be a satire of American politics, but should we be mainly amused, or mainly horrified?”

“The Himalayan Tragedy That Forever Changed Mountaineering,” by Outside’s Svati Kirsten Narula: “In 1976, Nanda Devi Unsoeld, the daughter of legendary alpinist Willi Unsoeld, died while climbing the massive Indian peak for which she was named. Decades later, friends, family, and surviving expedition members offer new insights into what went wrong during this controversial adventure, shedding light on an enigmatic young woman who lived without limits.”

“When Students Change Gender Identity, and Parents Don’t Know,” by NYT’s Katie Baker: “Educators are facing wrenching new tensions over whether they should tell parents when students socially transition at school.”

“The Rise of Spirit Warriors on the Christian Right,” by Katherine Stewart in The New Republic: “How an extreme transformation in American religion poses an existential threat to our democracy.”

“Can the GOP Become a Real Working-Class Party?” by WSJ’s Gerald Seib: “Some Republicans want the party to break from its longtime free-market agenda and focus instead on the needs and frustrations of workers. Others see danger in moving away from the legacy of Reagan.”

“The ‘Reid Machine’ Rolls On,” by NYT’s Carl Hulse: “Not only did former top aides of [former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid] help engineer crucial Democratic Senate wins in Pennsylvania and Nevada that allowed the party to keep its majority, but alumni of the Reid academy of politics and policy are now holding down top jobs throughout the chamber, the administration and the party apparatus.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Eric Lander is returning to the Broad Institute.

Amy Robach and T.J. Holmes are leaving ABC.

Kamala Harris will go back to Munich.

Elon Musk met yesterday with John Podesta, Mitch Landrieu, Jim Jordan and James Comer.

Peter Navarro’s trial got delayed.

OUT AND ABOUT — French Ambassador Philippe Etienne, along with Dmitri Alperovitch, Maureen Hinman, Tammy Haddad, John Katko, Mike Rogers, Edward Luce, Ryan Evans, Dan Jablonsky, Adam Ghetti and Kara Swisher, co-hosted the UnSanctioned party at his residence last night. Liev Schreiber, co-founder of BlueCheck Ukraine, and Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova were among the speakers. Guests who were sanctioned by Russia included Jon Finer, Lisa Monaco, Ned Price, Reps. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), Rick Larsen (D-Wash.), Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.) and Susan Wild (D-Pa.), Susan Glasser, Chris Krebs, Bianna Golodryga and Craig Kennedy. Also SPOTTED: Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, British Ambassador Karen Pierce, EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis, Niamh King, Peter Baker, Jonathan Karl, John McCarthy, Elizabeth Falcone, Dave Butler, T.W. Arrighi, Abby Phillip, Kaitlan Collins, Josh Dawsey, Alex Marquardt, Olivia Nuzzi, Ryan Williams, Neera Tanden and Steve Ricchetti.

WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Laura Driscoll has been detailed to the White House as senior legislative affairs adviser. She most recently was legislative adviser in the office of congressional relations at USDA.

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Allison Varricchio has left the White House, where she was director for Afghanistan at the NSC. She is going back to the State Department to work on South and Central Asia issues.

TRANSITIONS — Xochitl Hinojosa will return to the Justice Department as director of the Office of Public Affairs. She most recently has been a managing director at Bully Pulpit Interactive. … Jess Pavel is now director of global health advocacy for malaria at the U.N. Foundation. She most recently was senior health policy adviser for Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah). …

… Keith Nagy is now press secretary for Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.). He most recently was an associate at Pocket Aces Consulting. … Mary Kathryn Daigle is now a press assistant for Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.). She most recently was a staff assistant for the House Administration Committee.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Brooke Appleton, VP of public policy for the National Corn Growers Association, and Seth Appleton, president of U.S. Mortgage Insurers, welcomed Henry Raymond Appleton on Thursday. He joins big brother Daniel.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Justice Amy Coney Barrett … Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) … Reps. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) and Linda Sánchez (D-Calif.) … Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard … U.S. Ambassador to China Nick Burns … POLITICO’s Peter KingHelen KallaRobert Satloff of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy … former Reps. Lou Barletta (R-Pa.), Tom Downey (D-N.Y.) and Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.) … New York Lt. Gov. Antonio DelgadoLynnette Johnson Williams of BHJM Communications … Achim BergmannLeslie Jones of American Forests … Matt DoBiasFrank PurcellTed Greener of the Association of American Railroads ... Reginald Darby … Microsoft’s Matt Gelman John Milewski … CNN’s Jay McMichaelSam Greene … L.A. Times’ Courtney SubramanianBlaine Volpe of the Millennial Action Project … Steve Hicks (75)

THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):

CBS “Face the Nation”: Speaker Kevin McCarthy … Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).

CNN “State of the Union”: New HampshireGov. Chris Sununu … Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.). Panel: Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.), Adam Kinzinger, Bakari Sellers and Scott Jennings.

Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) … Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) … Mike Pompeo … Harmeet Dhillon … Trey Gowdy.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) … Robert Gates. Panel: Garrett Haake, Stephen Hayes, Claire McCaskill and Amna Nawaz.

MSNBC “The Sunday Show”: Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) … Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) … Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) … Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) … Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) … LA Mayor Karen Bass … Olivia Troye … Miles Taylor … John Bresnahan.

ABC “This Week”: Ben Crump … Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) … Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio). Panel: Chris Christie, Karen Finney, John Kasich and Richard Haass.

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) … Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) … Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.). Legal panel: Jonathan Turley and Thomas Dupree. Panel: Karl Rove, Susan Page, Juan Williams and Vivek Ramaswamy.

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.

Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook incorrectly described a House resolution written by the ChatGPT artificial intelligence program. The quoted text described the prompt given by Lieu to the program, not the resolution itself.

 

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