Playbook PM: The Rorschach jobs report

From: POLITICO Playbook - Friday May 07,2021 05:29 pm
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Playbook PM

By Ryan Lizza, Garrett Ross and Eli Okun

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It’s a given that any new economic data will immediately be spun by partisans through the prism of their preferred policies.

Today’s weak jobs report sent Democrats and Republicans into overdrive. The economy added just 266,000 jobs in April, “sharply lower than in March and a sign that some businesses are struggling to find enough workers as the economic recovery strengthens,” per the AP.

The NYT calls the new jobs numbers “anemic,” and notes they “are consistent with the story many business leaders are telling, of severe labor shortages — that demand has surged back but employers cannot find enough workers to fulfill it, at least at the wages they are accustomed to paying.”

Republicans are using the news to argue that the robust benefits passed in several Covid relief bills have created disincentives for many Americans to find work. This morning, the Chamber of Commerce released a statement calling for an end to the $300 supplemental weekly unemployment benefits.

President JOE BIDEN went out of his way to knock that argument in remarks today, pushing back against “loose talk” that the surprise number was the result of creeping inflation, and saying he wouldn’t give in to demands to shut off support for workers “for fear of overheating the economy.”

Democrats are also using the news to encourage passage of the American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan. Speaker NANCY PELOSI put out a statement this morning calling it an “urgent need.”

Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN spoke in the White House briefing room after the president — for the first time since 1999, KARINE JEAN-PIERRE noted. She called the report evidence of our “long haul climb back to recovery,” predicted a return to full employment “next year,” and made a pitch for the AJP.

In response to the Chamber’s concern about too-high unemployment benefits, Yellen noted that a number of unique pandemic-related factors are affecting the recovery, such as caregiving responsibilities and erratic school schedules for kids, which “remains a factor for many.” She added, “I really don’t think the major factor is the extra unemployment [benefits].”

On inflation concerns, Yellen said she “really doubt[s] that we’re going to see an inflationary cycle,” but Biden economists are watching it “very closely” and expect higher inflation over the next few months for “technical reasons.”

Yellen’s big message was to take a deep breath because the recovery will be “bumpy”: “The labor market is volatile from month to month.”

The bottom line: It’s too soon to know if this is a blip or evidence of something more concerning. As BEN WHITE and REBECCA RAINEY note, “the number could mean nothing much at all. Monthly jobs numbers, especially coming out of deep recessions, can be highly volatile. And any single number can turn out to be an anomaly reversed in subsequent months. Most other data suggest both a strong recovery and a vibrant labor market.”

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ODDS AND ENDS — Biden also took a few questions from reporters after his prepared remarks.

Q: “Why do you choose to wear a mask so often when you’re vaccinated and you’re around other people who are vaccinated?” BIDEN: “Because I’m worried about you. No, that’s a joke. … Why am I wearing the mask? Because when we’re inside, it’s still good policy to wear the mask. That’s why. When I’m outside, and the problem is, lots of times I walk away from this podium, you notice, I forget to put my mask back on because I'm used to not wearing it outside.” 29-second clip

Q: “Do you believe the Iranians are serious about the negotiation in Vienna?” BIDEN: “Yes, but how serious and what they’re prepared to do is a different story.”

On whether he will still meet with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN in June: “I’m confident we’ll be able to do it. We don’t have any — a specific time or place. That’s being worked on.”

Happy Friday afternoon.

MAJOR MILESTONE — “Hunger rates plummet after two rounds of stimulus,” by Helena Bottemiller Evich: “The percentage of Americans struggling with hunger is now at its lowest level since the pandemic began, suggesting the recent flood in aid from Washington is making a significant difference to families struggling economically. Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau this week shows the percentage of adults living in households that sometimes or often did not have enough to eat dipped to just over 8 percent late last month, down from nearly 11 percent in March. …

“With all of this data, Washington is learning that if you give people money, they will feed their families. … One of the most striking things that’s come from having all this near real time data, according to Jim Sullivan, an economist at the University of Notre Dame, is seeing just how much of an effect government aid had on reducing poverty.”

THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION — “U.S. Treasury releases $21.6 billion rental assistance, aims to aid renters directly,” Reuters: “The Treasury said that new guidance to local agencies administering rental assistance programs allows them for the first time to offer aid directly to renters first, before offering it to landlords. It also now requires that aid funds must be offered directly to renters when landlords do not participate in such programs.”

NEW CHAUVIN CHARGES — “George Floyd case: 4 police officers indicted on federal civil rights charges,” ABC: “The indictment alleges [DEREK] CHAUVIN, TOU THAO, J. ALEXANDER KUENG and THOMAS LANE deprived [GEORGE] FLOYD’S rights when they saw him lying on the ground ‘in clear need’ of medical care, but ‘willfully failed to aid Floyd, thereby acting with deliberate indifference to a substantial risk of harm.’”

NO LONGER ‘MY KEVIN’? — “Trump aides are casting doubt on McCarthy’s prospects for House speaker if the GOP wins back the majority in 2022,” Insider: “They are pointing out how [House Minority Leader KEVIN] MCCARTHY fell short when he first tried to win the job in 2015 before withdrawing … And they routinely note [DONALD] TRUMP doesn’t like to associate himself with losers …

“One former House GOP leadership aide said McCarthy enjoys front-runner status to succeed Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi should Republicans win the majority. But this person added that any flash of weakness from McCarthy between now and 2022 could prompt frenemies to pounce.”

 

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THE NEXT STEP — “Pfizer seeks full FDA approval of its Covid-19 vaccine,” by Lauren Morello: “The vaccine and two others are currently available in the United States under an emergency authorization from FDA. Pfizer and BioNTech are the first Covid-19 vaccine makers to seek full approval from U.S. regulators, which would allow the companies to market the shot directly to consumers. It could also make it easier for schools, employers and the military to require vaccination against Covid-19. …

“While FDA approval reviews typically take six months or more, the agency could act quickly on the vaccine since it had already received authorization.”

CDC DEPARTURE LOUNGE — “Senior CDC official who met Trump’s wrath for raising alarm about coronavirus to resign,” WaPo: “[NANCY] MESSONNIER, who has been director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases since 2016, was replaced last month as head of the agency’s vaccine task force as part of a reorganization under the CDC’s new director, ROCHELLE WALENSKY.

THE TRUE TOLL — “New Study Estimates More Than 900,000 People Have Died Of COVID-19 In U.S.,” Reuters

VOTING RIGHTS LATEST — “Texas GOP’s voting restrictions bill could be rewritten behind closed doors after key House vote,” Texas Tribune: “As opposition to Texas Republicans’ proposed voting restrictions continues to intensify, state lawmakers’ deliberations over the GOP priority legislation could soon go behind closed doors.

“The House early Friday voted 81-64 to advance a pared down version of Senate Bill 7, leaving out various far-reaching voting restrictions that have prompted widespread outcry from voting rights advocates, advocates for people with disabilities, and local officials in the state’s biggest counties. The legislation still contains some provisions opposed by those groups — including a prohibition on counties sending unsolicited applications to vote by mail. … The bill will need a second House vote, expected later Friday, before it can head back to the Senate.”

KFILE LOOKS INTO STEFANIK — “‘Not who we are as a country’: Elise Stefanik once harshly blasted Trump’s rhetoric and policies,” by CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski and Em Steck: “[I]n 2015, 2016 and the early days of [Trump’s] first term in office, [Rep. ELISE] STEFANIK criticized Trump over everything from his incendiary comments about Muslims and women to his signature policy positions, such as reforming NATO, building a U.S.-Mexico border wall and having stronger cooperation with Russia. …

“Stefanik also frequently criticized Trump’s rhetoric, saying in one January 2016 interview, ‘Unfortunately, it’s tapping into the fear today of our security situation.’ She added, ‘I think we should expect more substance out of our candidates.’ CNN reached out to Stefanik’s office, but they declined to comment on the record. On Thursday, however, Stefanik said on STEVE BANNON’S podcast that she would never forget campaigning during the 2016 election and said that she ‘really paid attention to the voters and the people in my district’ who supported Trump.”

RACIAL RECKONING — “Asian American diplomats say discrimination holds them back as U.S. competes with China,” CNN: “Asian American diplomats say that as they try to serve their country, they face disproportionate hurdles in the form of extremely drawn-out security clearance waits, restrictions on where they can serve — sometimes based on incorrect information — and a flawed appeals process. …

“[M]ore than 20 current and former AAPI national security professionals who spoke to CNN said they have a strong sense that things have gotten worse in the past few years because, as one Washington-based diplomat said, of ‘bipartisan and especially Republican fear-mongering about China trying to infiltrate all aspects of society.’ … The State Department declined to answer questions, provide comment or share statistics about assignment restrictions, but CNN obtained a sensitive-but-unclassified 2018 letter to House lawmakers that said restrictions had affected 166 employees in 2015 and 168 in 2016. In 2017, that number nearly doubled to 307.”

 

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BEHIND BOUNTYGATE — “Russian Spy Team Left Traces That Bolstered C.I.A.’s Bounty Judgment,” NYT: “In early 2020, members of a Taliban-linked criminal network in Afghanistan detained in raids told interrogators that they had heard that Russians were offering money to reward killings of American and coalition troops. … C.I.A. analysts set out to see whether they could corroborate or debunk the detainees’ accounts.

“Ultimately, newly declassified information shows, those analysts discovered a significant reason to believe the claim was accurate: Other members of the same Taliban-linked network had been working closely with operatives from a notorious unit of the G.R.U., the Russian military intelligence service, known for assassination operations. … The release of the full talking points as a statement is the government’s most detailed public explanation yet about how the C.I.A. came to the judgment that Russia had most likely offered financial incentives to reward attacks on American and allied troops. It also sheds new light on the gaps in the evidence that raised greater concerns among other analysts.”

TESTING THE NEW GOP — “Can the GOP Win in the Suburbs Again? Virginia Offers Early Test,” WSJ: “Republican officials and activists in Virginia will gather Saturday to choose their gubernatorial nominee, the party’s first major effort during President Biden’s tenure to win back voters in a state where Democrats made significant gains during Donald Trump’s presidency. …

“Virginia Republicans are picking their nominee at a convention via a ranked-choice voting system, with delegates gathering to make their choices at dozens of locations around the state. Results aren’t expected to be tallied and made public until next week. … Former Virginia GOP officials — including those from the state’s northern parts, where proximity to Washington, D.C., and growth have helped accelerate widespread Democratic victories — say Republicans risk a Democratic win if they nominate a candidate too closely aligned with Mr. Trump.”

INTERESTING PUERTO RICO READ — “Colonialism or democracy?” by Ben Jacobs in the Washington Examiner: “It may seem counterintuitive, but the debate over Puerto Rico’s status has become a primarily intra-Democratic fight, one that doesn’t fall along neat ideological lines and divides the four Democrats of Puerto Rican heritage within the caucus. …

“The debate isn’t just about politics. There are key questions of identity too. After all, Puerto Rico is a Spanish-speaking island with a national identity (including its own Olympic team). Its independence movement was suppressed in the late 1940s … This history weighs on advocates of independence, but they also use it to bolster their argument … But more than identity, the island is also in crisis.”

WATCH: Keeping up with Republican drama and Caitlyn Jenner’s conservatism: This week it’s all about Republicans. The ongoing feud between Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) and McCarthy worsens, and CAITLYN JENNER has her first sit-down interview since announcing her run for California governor. And down in Florida, Gov. RON DESANTIS faces backlash for signing a new voter ID law into effect live on Fox News. TARA watches this week’s top news videos with White House reporter MERIDITH MCGRAW and taps into her inside knowledge of what’s going on with the GOP.

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), Caitlyn Jenner and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy are pictured.

BOSWELL SAYS FAREWELL — “After covering everything for 52 years, it’s time to see what I missed,” by WaPo’s Thomas Boswell

TRANSITION — Charlie Ellsworth is now a partner at Pioneer Public Affairs. He previously was a budget and appropriations legislative assistant for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Graham Markiewicz, defense policy adviser for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), and Kat Haselkorn, a matchmaker with Three Day Rule, welcomed son Sterling Markiewicz on Saturday. Pic

 

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