Can Haley make the GOP want a Madam President?

By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

It’s clear six months into Nikki Haley's bid that the prospect of electing the nation’s first woman president hasn’t exactly caught fire with GOP voters. | Jeff Roberson/AP Photo

NEW AP/NORC POLL — “Biden’s approval rating on the economy stagnates despite slowing inflation,” by AP’s Josh Boak and Emily Swanson: “Only 36% of U.S. adults approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, slightly lower than the 42% who approve of his overall performance, according to the new poll.”

ONE OF US — “Awkward Americans see themselves in Ron DeSantis,” by WaPo’s Ben Terris: “But do they like what they see?”

PENCE PREPS FOR PRIMETIME — While DONALD TRUMP plays the will-he-won’t-he game with next week’s RNC presidential debate, one man seems champing at the bit to get on stage with the former president. In recent campaign stops, MIKE PENCE has been “relishing the opportunity to draw a contrast with Trump,” Adam Wren reports from Indianapolis.

The view from Pence land: “We’re ready,” MARC SHORT, Pence’s senior adviser, told POLITICO. “It’s let’s-get-it-on time. We’ve been waiting for this for a while.” Pence aides say the prospect of sharing the stage with Trump will provide exactly the kind of contrast for which they’ve been pining: Pence, staid and sober and studious on policy, versus a mercurial and braggadocious bluffer.

THE LONE WOMAN IN THE RACE — When NIKKI HALEY launched her bid for president in February, the former South Carolina governor proclaimed it was time to “put a badass woman in the White House” and that kicking back at bullies hurts more “if you are wearing heels.”

If she were a Democrat, that message — combined with her Indian American heritage — might resonate; the left has routinely sought to promote not only women, but women of color, as they prioritize diversifying their candidates to match their electoral coalition.

But it’s clear six months into her bid that the prospect of electing the nation’s first woman president hasn’t exactly caught fire with GOP voters. Haley remains stuck in the single digits in polls, well behind Trump and RON DeSANTIS.

Even so, when you ask President JOE BIDEN’s brain trust who they’re really worried about, you’ll hear one name,

“If they nominate Nikki Haley, we’re in trouble,” said a senior Democratic strategist close with the Biden campaign.

The debate next week — and the prospect of her as the only woman onstage amid a testosterone-fueled slugfest — could be a chance for her to turn her campaign around.

“The fellas are going to do what the fellas are gonna do,” Haley told Playbook and ABC in a recent interview at the Iowa State Fair, where she campaigned in a shirt that read, “UNDERESTIMATE ME — THAT’LL BE FUN.”

“I’m an accountant, I’m a military spouse, I’m a mom,” she continued. “I understand that we’ve got debt issues, we’ve got crime issues, we’ve got border issues, we’ve gotten education issues, and we’ve got China literally beating us every day. I don’t have time for the theatrics.”

HOW HALEY SEES IT: Haley was adamant that her gender isn’t a drag on her White House aspirations — even among a GOP whose base voters are quick to dismiss talk of gender inequality as “woke” ideology. (Instead, she chalked up her polling to the fact that she hasn’t spent much on ads; others who have seen bumps, like Scott, have spent tens of millions.)

In fact, Haley’s cheerleaders believe she connects better with voters because of her gender. Like many women, she’s been routinely underestimated by her male peers, struggled to balance a demanding career with raising a family, and has had to work harder than her counterparts to get what she wants.

Still, Haley is also under no illusion that her gender is what’s going to win her the nomination. “I think that when I become the first female president, it won't be because I'm a woman,” she said. “It’ll be because … I'm the right person for the job.”

She also insinuated that suggestions she’s effectively campaigning to be someone’s running mate are sexist: “I think everybody that says, ‘She's doing this to be vice president’ needs to understand: I don't run for second. I'm running for the top job … I don't trust anybody else to do it.”

Haley’s strategy of leaning into her gender is a sea change from the old-school thinking of Republican women. We remember a not-so-distant time when former House Budget Committee chief DIANE BLACK (R-Tenn.) and other female leaders insisted that we call them “chairman” — not “chairwoman.” (And they never wanted to talk about gender because they said their male colleagues would roll their eyes.)

Asked why she’s comfortable leaning in on gender when other GOP women have not, she deadpanned: “I don't ever see being a woman as [being] a victim. I'm proud of it. I think it has made me who I am.”

Read the full article for much more from our interview

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. What are you expecting from next week’s GOP debate? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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SAVE THE DATE — “Georgia prosecutors seek March 4 trial in Trump racketeering case,” by Kyle Cheney: “The timeline, combined with Trump’s other proposed and scheduled criminal cases, could put Trump in the courtroom for most of the first six months of 2024. … The proposal also includes a Sept. 5, 2023 arraignment, evidence-sharing deadlines in September and other interim motions throughout the fall.”

Meanwhile … “Texas woman accused of threatening to kill judge overseeing Trump election case and a congresswoman,” AP

COMING TO COLLECT — “Rudy Giuliani made desperate appeal to Trump to pay his legal bills in Mar-a-Lago meeting,” by CNN’s Kaitlan Collins and Paula Reid: “[RUDY] GIULIANI and [Giuliani lawyer ROBERT] COSTELLO traveled to Florida in late April where they had two meetings with Trump to discuss Giuliani’s seven-figure legal fees, making several pitches about how paying Giuliani’s bills was ultimately in Trump’s best interest. … Giuliani’s trip to Mar-a-Lago, which has not been previously reported, indicates the level of financial stress that he has been facing for months, as his legal troubles have continued to pile up.”

JURORS DOXXED — “Trump supporters post names and addresses of Georgia grand jurors online,” by NBC News’ Blayne Alexander and Ryan Reilly

WILD ONE — “New accusations: Ken Paxton used burner phone, secret email account, fake Uber name to hide ties to Nate Paul,” by The Texas Tribune’s Robert Downen, Patrick Svitek and Zach Despart

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PHOTO OF THE DAY

President Joe Biden acknowledges the audience after speaking on the anniversary of the Inflation Reduction Act during an event in the East Room of the White House, Wednesday, Aug. 16. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo

THE WHITE HOUSE

WHO’S COMING TO CAMP DAVID — The leaders of Japan and South Korea are set to gather in a standalone summit with Biden for the first time tomorrow. And Biden is hoping that the confab will serve as a bridge builder between the longtime foes. “The White House sees Friday’s historic summit at Camp David as another example of Biden delivering on his pledge to restore America’s alliances — particularly important in a region beset by threats from North Korea and China,” Eli Stokols, Phelim Kine and Jennifer Haberkorn write. “Those who’ve worked on issues in the region say it’s an opportune moment for Biden to have an impact.”

More details: Friday’s summit will also see the three countries form a new trilateral alliance that will “enhance cooperation among the nations in key areas, including ballistic-missile defenses, to counter rising threats from North Korea and China,” WSJ’s Vivian Salama reports, adding that the agreement will also touch on “intelligence sharing, supply chains and cybersecurity.”

Related read: “Eye on China, Biden Pulls Japan and South Korea Closer,” by NYT’s Ben Dooley and Choe Sang-Hun

HIP HIP HOOR-IRA — “For Biden, Celebrating What a Law Did Rather Than What It Did Not,” by NYT’s Peter Baker: “As even Mr. Biden implicitly conceded last week, the name of the bill was more about political branding than policy goals.”

CONGRESS

INCUMBENT RETENTION ACT? — Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER “insists last year’s marquee Inflation Reduction Act will help lift his incumbents to victory in 2024. Even in West Virginia,” Burgess Everett reports.

Among the red-state Dems up for reelection next year and eager to trumpet the bill: JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio). Brown called it “exactly the kind of legislation that in normal political times both political parties would proudly embrace,” while Schumer told Burgess that “[t]hings are happening in West Virginia that are very, very positive.”

But, but, but: “Republicans are clearly not going to concede the law’s viability to Democrats. … The Republican bid to undercut the IRA starts with Manchin, who they want to knock out of the 2024 race before it even begins.”

SANTOS’ LITTLE HELPER — SAMUEL MIELE, a former campaign aide to Rep. GEORGE SANTOS, was indicted by federal prosecutors for wire fraud and identity theft. Miele allegedly impersonated “a House leadership aide while soliciting contributions for Santos’ campaign, according to court papers unsealed Wednesday,” Erica Orden reports. He pleaded not guilty.

FLAG ON THE PLAY — “House Oversight Committee member asks chairman to refer Dan Snyder to the DOJ for investigation,” by AP’s Stephen Whyno

2024 WATCH

GREAT SCOTT — Is this TIM SCOTT’s moment to make a move? With a growing sense that his campaign is on the rise, the South Carolina senator is trying to turn the good vibes into something real — a gambit that could be cemented at next week’s debate. “Scott may find himself a target of attacks on the debate stage given his campaign’s relative momentum. His campaign is preparing for the debate with a combination of traditional preparation and reminders for him to maintain the cheerful attitude that’s resonated with voters so far,” CNN’s Aaron Pellish, Eva McKend and Kim Berryman report, noting that several rival campaigns have already been targeting Scott.

Related read: “Tim Scott announces second major ad buy of his presidential campaign,” by WaPo’s Maegan Vazquez and Marianne LeVine: “[T]he ad buy dedicates $6.6 million toward television ads.”

HOW IT’S PLAYING — With Trump’s cascading legal troubles becoming one of the focal points of the 2024 campaign thus far, voters in the latest state to set Trump in its sights are growing concerned with the electoral fallout.

“Georgia Republicans say they know a winning message for 2024: Under President Biden, voters are struggling with inflation, gas prices are on the rise and undocumented migrants are streaming across the southern border,” NYT’s Jonathan Weisman and Maya King report. “But they fear Donald J. Trump, the front-runner for the Republican nomination, won’t be able to stay on message.”

MORE POLITICS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The political fallout of Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) blockade of Pentagon promotions is spreading beyond just him. VoteVets is going up with a tough TV ad calling on Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) to help end the impasse, backed by $100,000 in Tallahassee with plans to expand. “Rick Scott’s been AWOL on it,” a Florida veteran says in the spot. “Senator, wearing that [Navy] hat doesn’t make you a hero when you’re hanging our military out to dry. Stop the block on military promotions, and let our leaders lead.” Watch here

AS SEEN ON TWIT— ER, X — “The Hard-Tweeting Defense Lawyer GOP Candidates Have Learned to Fear,” by Meredith McGraw in Sarasota, Fla.: “Online, [RON] FILIPKOWSKI, a former Republican now devoted to trolling the GOP, is a different person altogether. He is a social media obsessive — or savant, or both — sharing an endless stream of photos, videos, political dirt and, at times, biting political commentary with the roughly 750,000 followers he has on X, sometimes blowing up a politician’s comment or gaffe with attention.”

TRUMP CARDS

HEADLINE OF THE DAY — “What Can Young Thug’s RICO Case Tell Us About Donald Trump’s?” by Rolling Stone’s Andre Gee

GOOD BUSINESS IF YOU CAN GET IT — NYT’s Chris Cameron has a rundown of the dozen lawyers paid by Trump’s Save America PAC to defend him since last year. Some notables: 

• CHRISTOPHER KISE, paid $5.8 million in 2022 and the first six months of 2023, representing Trump in his federal documents case.

• JOE TACOPINA, paid $1.7 million in the first half of 2023, a polarizing figure in the civil case against Trump by E. JEAN CARROLL.

• DREW FINDLING, paid $816,000 in 2022 and the first half of 2023, known as the #BillionDollarLawyer who has represented rap stars like CARDI B and GUCCI MANE.

SPECULATION STATION — “Clues point to identities of ‘unindicted co-conspirators’ in alleged Coffee County breach,” by WaPo’s Jon Swaine

JUDICIARY SQUARE

COMING SOON TO THE DOCKET — “The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Wednesday ruled that access to the abortion pill, mifepristone, should be sharply curtailed, ramping up the legal threat to the most popular method of ending a pregnancy,” Alice Miranda Ollstein reports.

What would change: If SCOTUS allows the ruling to take effect, it would overturn “rules allowing online ordering, mail delivery, and pharmacy dispensing of the drugs. It also would roll back access from the current 10 weeks of pregnancy to seven and would reimpose a requirement that only physicians can prescribe the pills.”

The timing: “Despite the appellate court’s ruling, there will be no change in how the pills are distributed until the Supreme Court revisits the issue, likely in 2024 or 2025.”

THE WAIT GOES ON — “Plea negotiations could mean no 9/11 defendants face the death penalty, the US tells families,” by AP’s Ellen Knickmeyer and Jennifer Peltz: “The notice, made in a letter that was sent to several of the families and obtained by The Associated Press, comes 1 1/2 years after military prosecutors and defense lawyers began exploring a negotiated resolution to the case.”

A message from Climate Power:

“I did not go to college, I did not have any special training.”- Brian

POLICY CORNER

THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — “ChatGPT leans liberal, research shows,” by WaPo’s Gerrit De Vynck

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

COMING SOON TO A SIDELINE NEAR YOU — “U.S., Brazil Discuss Possible Biden-Lula Meeting at U.N. Forum,” by Bloomberg’s Simone Preissler Iglesias, Daniel Carvalho, and John Harney

NOT FORGOTTEN — PAUL WHELAN, the U.S. citizen who has been arrested in Russia in 2018, spoke by phone with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, CNN’s Jennifer Hansler, Kylie Atwood and Kayla Tausche report. Blinken told Whelan to “keep the faith and we’re doing everything we can to bring you home as soon as possible.”

THE ECONOMY

FED UP — “Some Fed Officials Are Turning Cautious about Raising Rates Too High,” by WSJ’s Nick Timiraos: “Minutes of the July policy meeting, released Wednesday, said some officials thought the risks of raising rates too much versus too little ‘had become more two-sided, and it was important that the committee’s decisions balance the risk of an inadvertent overtightening of policy against the cost of an insufficient tightening.’”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE LATEST IN MAUI — “Wildfire death toll rises to 110 as hundreds remain unaccounted for,” Hawaii News Now

Related read: “Fires and others disasters are increasing in Hawaii, according to this AP data analysis,” by Seth Borenstein, Mary Katherine Wildeman and Bobby Caina Calvan

DIVIDED GOVERNMENT ON DISPLAY — “NC Republicans override Cooper to pass 6 new laws after debate over LGBTQ+ youth,” by the News and Observer’s Jazper Lu, T. Keung Hui, Kyle Ingram, and Luciana Perez Uribe Guinassi

WHAT’S THE MATTER WITH KANSAS? — “Kansas prosecutor says police should return computers and cellphones seized in raid on newspaper,” by AP’s John Hanna and Jim Salter in Marion, Kan.

O-HIGH-O — An Ohio ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana has qualified for the November ballot, Secretary of State FRANK LaROSE announced on Wednesday. More from Cleveland.com’s Laura Hancock

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Mike Pence did a passable impression of George W. Bush.

JB Pritzker signed a baseball for an Illinois man with an, um, surprising name.

Yes, Janet Yellen did eat magic mushrooms — but she didn’t get high, WaPo explains.

IN MEMORIAM — “Ada Deer, influential Native American leader from Wisconsin, dies at 88,” by AP’s Harm Venhuizen: “Ada Deer, an esteemed Native American leader from Wisconsin and the first woman to lead the Bureau of Indian Affairs, has died at age 88. Deer passed away Tuesday evening from natural causes, members of her family confirmed on Wednesday.”

MEDIA MOVE — Warren Rojas is now a Congress reporter at The Messenger. He most recently was a D.C. correspondent at Insider.

TRANSITIONS — Lauren Devoll is joining political AI startup Numinar as head of growth. She previously led global public policy partnerships at Twitter and is an RNC and NRCC alum. … Rani Williams is now a senior policy adviser at Clause Law PLLC. She previously was a legislative assistant for Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Kan.) and staff director for the Congressional Native American Caucus Dems. …

… Brooke Kramer is now a military legislative aide for Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.). She previously was a legislative aide for Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.). … Katie Price is now executive assistant at American Global Strategies. She most recently was an operations manager for the Trump Organization.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Lauren Wallace, global partner manager at ServiceNow, and Pete Wallace, head of federal government affairs at Viatris, welcomed Palmer Virginia Wallace on Monday.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Louisa Terrell … former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), now of the American Action Network and Hogan Lovells … former Rep. David Price (D-N.C.) … ABC’s Brittany Shepherd … Ron Bonjean of Rokk Solutions … Sonali Dohale … Jon Lovett of Crooked Media … The Guardian’s Ella Creamer … Jamie Smith … Jamie Gillespie of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s office … Savannah Holsten of LMI … Daniel Penchina … Sabrina Schaeffer of the R Street Institute … Mike Buczkiewicz of “Morning Joe” … Caroline Boothe Olsen … Philip de Vellis of Beacon Media … HuffPost’s Elise Foley … Ben Brody … Fox News’ Will Ricciardella … Jessica Gail … Nick Hawatmeh …  Andrea Christianson … Diane Shust … Dave McCormick … Chad Frey … Dave Toomey of the Leadership Conference … David Kusnet … Dynamic SRG’s Darren Rigger

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