What we know about the Biden impeachment push

From: POLITICO Playbook - Wednesday Sep 13,2023 10:29 am
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POLITICO Playbook

By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

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DRIVING THE DAY

THE NEW BROMANCE — “North Korea’s Kim vows full support for Russia’s ‘sacred fight’ after viewing launchpads with Putin,” by AP’s Kim Tong-Hyung and Dasha Litvinova: KIM JONG UN “expressed ‘full and unconditional support’ and said Pyongyang will always stand with Moscow on the ‘anti-imperialist’ front.”

WILD OATHS — “Trump and DeSantis campaigns are quietly lobbying the Florida GOP over its loyalty pledge,” by NBC’s Matt Dixon: “‘Right or wrong, it would be viewed as a f--- you to [RON] DeSANTIS,’ a prominent Florida Republican said.”

Kevin McCarthy standing in the House chamber.

Speaker Kevin McCarthy's announcement yesterday declaring an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden added new gravity to the nasty fights already roiling the House. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

YOUR BIDEN IMPEACHMENT PRIMER — September on Capitol Hill has gone from crazy to flat-out insane.

Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY’s announcement yesterday declaring an impeachment inquiry into President JOE BIDEN added new gravity to the nasty fights already roiling the House, with a government shutdown 18 days away and a growing cadre of conservative hard-liners threatening McCarthy’s gavel — to say nothing about the implications for 2024.

If McCarthy thought the impeachment gambit would settle any of the uncertainty surrounding those clashes, well, it’s done the exact opposite — triggering a bevy of new questions about what’s next.

We spent the past day trying to flesh out some of those questions. Some of them have answers, some of them don’t, and some of them have even befuddled McCarthy’s investigators — who had barely a few hours’ heads-up about yesterday’s announcement and are still strategizing about their next steps.

WHAT’S THE TIMELINE?

Unclear. When Democrats targeted DONALD TRUMP for impeachment in 2019, they launched their probe at almost the exact same point in the year and wrapped it up with an impeachment vote just before Christmas. That rat-a-tat timeline was dictated by then-Speaker NANCY PELOSI, who didn’t want her swing-district members dealing with impeachment baggage during the 2020 midterms.

That turned out to be a grave political mistake, ending in a half-baked case that ultimately failed to convince the nation that Trump was dangerous and needed to be removed from office.

None other than NEWT GINGRICH told our colleagues recently that the impeachment of BILL CLINTON that he presided over as speaker “failed to totally convince the American people” and offered a word of warning to his successors: “Go slow & be careful.”

WILL REPUBLICANS VOTE TO FORMALIZE THE INQUIRY? 

That’s the plan. Back in 2019, McCarthy blasted Pelosi for refusing to formally authorize Trump’s impeachment inquiry with a House vote. Now McCarthy is doing exactly that, arguing he’s following Pelosi’s precedent. The political reasons for doing so are obvious: McCarthy doesn’t currently have the votes, senior Republicans tell us, and he’s keen to protect his swing-district members from having to take a position.

Here’s the thing about the Pelosi precedent: House Democrats did, in fact, take a vote formalizing their inquiry five weeks after her initial announcement, which gave investigators time to gather additional evidence backing their quid-pro-quo allegations against Trump. We’re told by one senior GOP aide that McCarthy plans to do the same.

HOW IS THE WHITE HOUSE GOING TO HANDLE THIS?

Very carefully. Just as McCarthy borrowed Pelosi’s playbook, the Biden White House could borrow Trump’s. As our Kyle Cheney wrote last night, the Justice Department back then determined that since the House hadn’t held a formal vote authorizing the probe, Trump and his aides were free to ignore Democrats’ impeachment subpoenas.

But tempting as it might be for Biden to tell the GOP to pound sand, he’s also facing tactical concerns. Already some impeachment-skeptical moderates are suggesting that a lack of White House cooperation on document and testimony requests could bring them around, and so a complete stonewall might well be counterproductive.

WILL IMPEACHMENT PLACATE McCARTHY’S CONSERVATIVE CRITICS?

Sure doesn’t seem like it. For weeks, McCarthy’s inner circle privately talked about an impeachment inquiry as a sort of break-glass emergency measure that could mollify the right if the spending showdown went sideways.

Turns out that was wishful thinking. Just minutes after he announced the inquiry, Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) went to the House floor to make the case for McCarthy’s potential removal, vowing to start “every single day in Congress with the prayer, the pledge and the motion to vacate” if he doesn’t do the right’s bidding, and he isn’t alone.

IS THERE ANY WAY THIS DOESN’T END IN BIDEN’S IMPEACHMENT?

Don’t count on it. McCarthy is privately trying to appease his unhappy centrist members by telling them that opening an inquiry is just that — an inquiry — and that doesn’t mean they’ll have to vote to actually impeach Biden someday.

Back in 2019, Jordan and his staff made fun of Pelosi when she made the exact same argument. One aide likened Pelosi’s decision to launch an impeachment probe to skydiving: Once you’re out of the plane, there’s no going back. Eventually you land in impeachment.

Any other scenario ignores the reality of 21st-century impeachment politics. Opening an inquiry then failing to follow through would be a major political boon to Biden — essentially, a tacit admission by the GOP that he’s innocent. And we wouldn’t be surprised if McCarthy uses that argument to squeeze moderates who currently see no evidence of high crimes and misdemeanors to back impeachment later on.

Click through for more, including what allegations the GOP is targeting, how leadership is viewing those skeptical moderates and what we’re hearing about hearings.

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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More impeachment reads: 

GAVIN GABBIN’ AT KEVIN  — California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM relished the chance to take a shot at McCarthy last night when asked about the fellow Golden State pol’s about-face on unilaterally launching the impeachment inquiry. He derided the effort as “student government” in a live, on-stage interview with POLITICO’s Chris Cadelago, and mocked McCarthy for being in thrall to Trump: “‘My Kevin’ will do what he needs to do — or he’s told to do.”

Newsom also called McCarthy’s deep-red Bakersfield district the “murder capital of California.” He added, “Two and a half times the murder rate of Nancy Pelosi’s San Francisco.” Newsom also panned DeSantis’ struggling White House bid, saying the Republican governor of Florida has “belly flopped” four times in about as many minutes. More from Melanie Mason

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate will meet at noon to resume consideration of the motion to proceed to the appropriations minibus.

The House will meet at 10 a.m. and at noon to take up the Defense appropriations bill.

3 things to watch …

  1. House Republicans have their first in-person conference meeting since July at 9 a.m. The subject of the day won’t be impeachment, but spending, with McCarthy set to make the case to his members that they need to unite and pass appropriations bills to strengthen their hand with the Democratic-controlled Senate. He’ll also discuss his plan to try to extract concessions on the border as part of a shutdown-averting stopgap, according to a senior GOP aide briefed on McCarthy’s plans.
  2. McCarthy’s exhortations will be put to the test midday on a procedural vote teeing the annual defense spending bill up for passage. The measure made it out of the House Rules Committee yesterday evening, but it remains unclear if GOP leaders can keep their ranks unified on the test vote. Majority Whip TOM EMMER (R-Minn.) gave our Sarah Ferris no guarantees yesterday: “We’ll see,” he said. “They’ve been off on the range, running free and wild for six weeks and now they’re back.”
  3. The biggest names in tech are flocking to the Russell building today for Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER’s much-hyped forum on artificial intelligence. AI power players including SAM ALTMAN, SUNDAR PICHAI, ELON MUSK and MARK ZUCKERBERG are expected to give lawmakers input on potential regulation — a confab that’s too cozy for the likes of Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.). Our colleague Steven Overly sat down with Microsoft President BRAD SMITH on what he wants out of the closed-door meeting on today’s POLITICO Tech podcast.

At the White House

Biden will meet with his Cancer Cabinet in the afternoon and travel to McLean, Va., for a campaign reception in the evening. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE, JOHN KIRBY and Council of Economic Advisers Chair JARED BERNSTEIN will brief at 1 p.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will travel to Chicago for a campaign event in the evening.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

CONGRESS

Lauren Boebert smiling while standing with a group of Project 7 Water Authority employees.

Rep. Lauren Boebert is hardly the only member projecting a different version of herself in the Capitol than she does back home. | Rachel Woolf for POLITICO

BIG BOEBERT READ — In D.C., Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT (R-Colo.) is a conservative bomb thrower — look no further than her extensive calls for impeaching Biden. But back home, she tones down the rhetoric, hardly deploying the type of MAGA-fied speech that she has become known for in the halls of the Capitol, Olivia Beavers writes in an insightful piece from Fruita, Colo.

“Boebert is hardly the only member projecting a different version of herself in the Capitol than she does back home. But her embrace of a political split personality illustrates the limits of raucous Trump-first conservatism in a competitive district. Her Freedom Caucus stardom hasn’t immunized her from the risk of playing more to the GOP base than voters back home.”

More top reads:

  • Speaking of Boebert, she was “escorted out of a Sunday night performance of the ‘Beetlejuice’ musical in downtown Denver, accused by venue officials of vaping, singing, recording and ‘causing a disturbance’ during the performance,” the Denver Post’s John Aguilar reports. A spox for Boebert confirmed her removal but denied some of the allegations, saying Boebert simply “enthusiastically enjoyed” the show. Watch the video
  • THOMAS SOBOCINSKI, the FBI agent overseeing the HUNTER BIDEN investigation “disputed whistleblower claims that the prosecutor in charge of the probe was stymied by the Justice Department, according to the transcript of an interview with lawmakers that took place last week,” WaPo’s Jacqueline Alemany and Devlin Barrett scoop.
  • A handful of lawmakers are “planning trips to China this fall in what would be the latest in a string of high-level visits, encouraged by the Biden administration, as Washington debates how to address a dangerously frayed relationship with Beijing,” WaPo’s Abigail Hauslohner reports. Among the interested members: Schumer, Sen. MIKE CRAPO (R-Idaho) and Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.).

THE WHITE HOUSE

President Joe Biden speaks at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit, Wednesday, Sept. 14, 2022.

President Joe Biden’s handling of his electric car and truck subsidies have become a frequent theme for the United Auto Workers. | Paul Sancya/AP Photo

A MORE PERFECT UNION? — Biden’s drive to make electric vehicles the center of his clean energy economy is running up against a major roadblock: the brewing fight between the United Auto Workers and the major automakers.

The rub: “The United Auto Workers’ criticisms of Biden’s handling of his electric car and truck subsidies have become a frequent theme for the 150,000-member union as it prepares for a possible strike against the major U.S. automakers this week,” our colleagues Tanya Snyder and James Bikales write. “That means a key part of the president’s trillion-dollar-plus climate and infrastructure agenda, a centerpiece of his argument for reelection, faces friction with a major source of Democratic political muscle in states like Michigan.”

What else you need to know about the potential strike:

The tactics … “If an agreement doesn’t look likely, UAW officials intend to announce which factories will go on strike late Thursday, within hours of when the union’s current contracts with the car companies are set to expire,” per WSJ’s Ryan Felton and Nora Eckert.

The view from D.C. … “Democratic lawmakers rev rhetoric amid UAW strike threat,” by Olivia Olander

 

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2024 WATCH

STOP US IF YOU’VE HEARD THIS BEFORE — A group of prominent election experts is banding together to warn that democracy in America is “under great stress” just a little more than a year out from the 2024 election.

That’s the takeaway from a report rolling out today, “decrying the fights over elections in the last two decades that have stemmed from ‘hyperpolarized politics and very close elections,’” Zach Montellaro writes. The panel of experts urges lawmakers, technology companies and the media to make changes to “increase the fairness and help bolster the legitimacy of the 2024 elections.” Read the full report

More top reads:

  • Some Democrats’ hopes of striking Trump from the ballot aren’t finding sympathetic ears among Democratic state AGs, who “doubt that they can deploy a largely untested legal theory to disqualify Trump from the ballot under the interpretation of the 14th Amendment — and that they shouldn’t be the ones to try it,” our colleagues Heidi Przybyla and Zach Montellaro write.
  • WaPo’s David Ignatius joins the ranks of pundits calling for Biden to step aside: “I think Biden risks undoing his greatest achievement — which was stopping Trump.”

MORE POLITICS

QUITE A PIVOT — FreedomWorks, one of the Koch brothers’ crown jewels, is angling for a refresh. The organization is becoming a more moderate group, our colleague Hailey Fuchs reports, “one sounding traditionally libertarian notes while pursuing the types of ideological compromise it used to eschew.”

The details: “In a presentation intended for donors, lawmakers and others obtained by POLITICO, the group called for a ‘New FreedomWorks for a New World.’ The presentation outlined the beliefs of independent voters who embrace such concepts as ‘climate realism’ and ‘abortion options.’ In a letter to donors and staff, the group’s president ADAM BRANDON said conservatives no longer showed commitment to the philosophy of limited government and appealed for modesty on social policy.”

RED LIGHT REDISTRICT — “Wisconsin’s Democratic governor rejects GOP’s surprise redistricting plan,” by AP’s Scott Bauer in Madison, Wis.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

STRONGMAN TO MAN — Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN is reentering the American political conversation, “lending firepower to the Republican outcry over the prosecutions of Mr. Trump,” NYT’s Paul Sonne and Michael Bender write. But it wasn’t all the normal talking points. Putin also “expressed a measure of resignation about the American posture toward Russia, saying the United States would likely remain anti-Russian, even if Mr. Trump were to return to the White House.”

What Putin said: “Given today’s conditions, what is happening is good for us, in my opinion, because it shows the rottenness of the American political system, which cannot pretend to teach democracy to others.”

EVAN GERSHKOVICH LATEST — “WSJ Publisher Urges U.N. Body to Declare Evan Gershkovich Arbitrarily Detained,” by WSJ’s Joanna Sugden and Jennifer Calfas

POLICY CORNER

DROPPING TODAY — “What to Watch in the CPI Report: Did Inflation Continue to Cool in August?” by WSJ’s Amara Omeokwe and Nick Timiraos: “Wednesday’s inflation report could flash seemingly divergent signals: Consumers are likely to note that gasoline prices jumped in August, and the Federal Reserve could welcome further signs of milder underlying price pressures.”

NEWS YOU CAN USE — “Here’s what you need to know about new Covid shots,” by Katherine Ellen Foley and Chelsea Cirruzzo

MEDIAWATCH

FOR YOUR RADAR — “NYC pension funds and state of Oregon sue Fox over 2020 election coverage,” AP

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Ron Wyden did not seem impressed by his encounter with a Revolutionary War-era fan.

John Kennedy had an, uh, interesting moment in a Senate Judiciary hearing.

Ralph Norman is talking tough about primarying Lindsey Graham.

Vivek Ramaswamy interviewed Papa John.

Bret Baier is extending his stay at Fox News.

PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “Liquor Lobbyists Now Have Their Own Capitol Hill Cocktail Bar,” by Washingtonian’s Jessica Sidman

FOR YOUR RADAR — The Clinton Global Initiative will hold a session Sept. 21 on protecting freedom of the press centered around Russian-held WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich. The event will feature remarks from Hillary Clinton and a Q&A moderated by Fox News’ Dana Perino. More from Deadline’s Ted Johnson

SPOTTED: Rob Gronkowski on the Hill for a reception raising awareness about Valley Fever. PicAnother pic

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a party yesterday evening at Charlie Palmer’s celebrating the one-year anniversary of Restoring Integrity and Trust in Elections: co-founders Karl Rove and Bobby Burchfield, Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), Ashley MacLeay, Derek Lyons, Lindsey Hagan, Justin Riemer, Chris Winkelman, Jason Thielman, May Mailman, Alphonso Jackson, Steve Holland, Adam Telle, Raj Shah, Christina Norton and Carrie Sheffield.

— SPOTTED at a party for Robin Schepper’s memoir, “Finding My Way: A Memoir of Family, Identity and Political Ambition” ($28.95), hosted by Pioneer Public Affairs last night: Camille Johnston, Mike McCurry, Kiki McLean, Ginny Terzano, Karen Skelton, Joe Britton, Charlie Ellsworth, Eric Washburn and Kim Corbin.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Sam Lyman is now director of public policy for Riot Platforms. He most recently was policy director at the Orrin G. Hatch Foundation and is a Chamber of Commerce and Orrin Hatch alum.

​​Graham Hall is now government affairs manager on Tyson Foods’ state government relations team. He most recently was director for government relations at Van Scoyoc Associates.

Ilana Marcus Drimmer is joining Javelin as director of strategic development. She most recently was a producer for NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

MEDIA MOVES — Charles Lane and Stephen Stromberg are taking over as deputy opinion editors at WaPo, succeeding Karen Tumulty. Read the announcement

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Amber Macdonald is joining SKDK as a managing director in the executive comms practice. She previously was special assistant to the president and chief speechwriter for first lady Jill Biden.

TRANSITION — Viviann Anguiano is now director of education at the Domestic Policy Council. She previously was deputy education policy director for the Senate HELP Dems.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Nick Niedzwiadek, labor and employment reporter at POLITICO, and Rachel Ann Stephens, associate attorney at Lewis & Lin, got married Sunday in Raleigh, N.C. They met when Nick was visiting a mutual friend who was attending UNC law school with Rachel Ann. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), Ann Wagner (R-Mo.), Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) and Roger Williams (R-Texas) … Danielle BurrCedric Richmond (5-0) … North Carolina AG Josh SteinAsya Evelyn of Rep. Maxine Waters’ (D-Calif.) office … Mark MellmanJosé Morales of The Hub Project … Potomac Strategy Group’s Matt MackowiakRobin MeszolyVivian Schiller of the Aspen Institute … Ryan HambletonWalter Suskind … CNN’s Alli Gordon … Amazon’s Suzanne Beall and Tina Pelkey … POLITICO’s Ari Hawkins, Kate Ling, Destiny Woosley and Ben Leonard … Bloomberg’s Laura Davison and Robyn Brigham … White House’s Kelsey Smith … NBC’s Ginger Gibson and Casey Dolan … former Reps. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) (6-0) and Lincoln Davis (D-Tenn.) (8-0) … Jerry Johnson of Brodeur Partners … Jennifer Pflieger … Herald Group’s Jack Fencl 

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Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misspelled Ben Schreckinger’s name.

 

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