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| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | DEBATE UPDATE — CHRIS CHRISTIE now says he has enough donors to qualify for the third GOP presidential debate, Natalie Allison scoops this morning. The former New Jersey governor had already been doing well enough in the New Hampshire and national polls to meet the other half of the RNC’s arcane qualification regime. Christie is only the fifth GOP candidate to make the cut for the Nov. 8 debate in Miami. He joins fellow qualifiers DONALD TRUMP, who says he will skip the event, VIVEK RAMASWAMY, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS and former South Carolina Gov. NIKKI HALEY. North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM, meanwhile, has the donors but not the polls, while Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) has the polls but not the donors.
|  Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) arrives for a House Speaker candidate forum on Capitol Hill on Oct. 23, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | DAY 21 — House Republicans will once again gather this morning behind closed doors to pick a speaker. They are down to eight candidates after Rep. DAN MEUSER (R-Pa.) dropped out last night before most people even learned how to pronounce his last name. If you want a sense of how Monday evening’s two-and–half-hour candidate forum went, this scene via Jordain Carney, Olivia Beavers, and Daniella Diaz gives you a taste: “Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.), for example, asked each contender about whether they would conduct intense oversight of Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS and Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND — the latter over his handling of detainees from the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.” “‘I want to know, which one of you have the balls to hold them accountable?’ Greene asked the speaker candidates inside the room, according to a source familiar with her remarks.” Someone will emerge from the rounds of secret-ballot voting today. But that’s the easy part. There’s no reason, other than sheer fatigue, to think that the newest speaker designate is likely to fare any better than the ousted or sidelined KEVIN McCARTHY, STEVE SCALISE or JIM JORDAN. Like his predecessors, TOM EMMER, the leading candidate in the current crop, is being defined by a MAGA vs. moderates framing that is polarizing House Republicans and conservative media into competing camps. STEVE BANNON has (predictably) launched a “stop Emmer” campaign because he wants the entire GOP leadership “decapitated,” per this piece from NYT’s Luke Broadwater dissecting the House Republican factions (and “factions within the factions”). But ideology is only one part of the infighting. These elections over the last three weeks have been defined as much or more by personal grievance (MATT GAETZ vs. McCarthy, McCarthy knifing Scalise, the anti-Jordan rump voting to avenge how Scalise was treated, everything NANCY MACE does). It may be that unity won’t come until there’s enough rounds of bloodletting that everyone feels they have been able to exact some revenge on an enemy — sort of like a House version of the movie “The Purge,” where an orgy of violence is allowed for 12 hours. Everyone gets it out of their system and then everything returns to “normal,” though things are never quite the same. Related reads: “Congress officially avoided a shutdown — but GOP hardliners still caused one,” by Burgess Everett and Sarah Ferris ... “House Republicans Upbeat After Speaker Candidates Make Pitches,” WSJ
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Explore the impact. | | | IF YOU LIKE THE DEADLOCKED HOUSE — A little-noticed slide in a polling presentation recently released by No Labels has sent panic through the ranks of top Democrats. No Labels is the centrist political group aiming to field a third party presidential “unity ticket” in response to what it says is widespread disgust with a rematch between Trump and President JOE BIDEN. The data in the offending slide suggests that No Labels’ best shot at influencing the general election is by fielding a Republican at the top of its ticket and focusing their efforts on the eight likely swing states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. According to their polling, under this scenario the only clear shot for a Biden win in those eight states would be in Pennsylvania. The folks at Third Way, a Democratic group that has become a clearinghouse of anti-No Labels research, is flagging this development as a “dramatic shift in strategy.” They argue in a new memo released this morning, and shared first with our colleague Daniel Lippman, that this new approach of using a Republican presidential candidate to target eight swing states is intended to deny both Trump and Biden a 270 electoral vote majority. Third Way accuses No Labels of plotting to then use their potential handful of electoral votes to play “kingmaker.” “This, No Labels believes, would give them leverage to cut a deal by promising their electors’ support to whichever major party candidate they deem more worthy,” Third Way argues. Read the full memo That scenario — telling faithless electors how to vote after winning concessions from Trump or Biden — would probably not be great for instilling much-needed confidence in our creaky system for picking presidents. “A contingent election in the House would create chaos,” Third Way contends, not unreasonably. “In the wake of the Big Lie and the January 6th insurrection, the danger of a scheme designed to pressure faithless electors into voting as they’re instructed by a small group of elites is self-evident.” Third Way notes that the election would likely end up tossed to the House, which, in such a situation, votes by state delegation thus almost certainly ensuring a Trump victory. (Republicans currently have a 26-22 delegation advantage.) There’s a lot of speculation in all of this, but at a minimum Third Way does persuasively make the case that this swing-state electoral-vote blocking strategy is the new No Labels plan. Previously No Labels argued they could win the election outright and had a “real and viable” path to 270, a claim that Third Way previously attacked. Looking at recent events and peering into this potential future, Third Way’s MATT BENNETT, who for months has been sounding the alarm about the No Labels threat to Biden, draws this conclusion: “The danger of this plan is obvious — if you thought these past few weeks in Congress were chaotic, imagine House Republicans choosing the President.” Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. MOOD MUSIC — “US Budget Deficit Doubles to $2 Trillion in Dire Warning for Washington,” by Bloomberg’s Christopher Condon and Chris Anstey ABOUT THAT NEW ROMNEY BIOGRAPHY OUT TODAY — “How Mitt Romney Reckoned With His Own Complicity in Trump’s Rise,” by Michael Kruse: “A new book explores the senator’s pained realization that even a Trump antagonist like him might bear some blame for the current GOP mess.” TUNE IN — It’s been more than a year since Congress passed the CHIPS and Science Act, which set aside nearly $53 billion in subsidies in a bid to restore America as a global leader in chip manufacturing and research. Join us at 8:30 a.m. for POLITICO’s CHIPS Update: Fabs, Feds, and the Future of the Industry featuring conversations with the U.S. Department of Commerce’s CHIPS Program office and industry stakeholders working to rebuild the nation’s chips industry. Register … 3 things to watch
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate will meet at 10 a.m. to resume consideration of MICHAEL WHITAKER’s nomination to be FAA administrator with a cloture vote at 2:15 p.m. The House is in. 3 things to watch …
- The ongoing speaker impasse is having major ramifications for committee work in the House. Today’s Republican Conference balloting, which could go on all day inside 1100 Longworth, prompted the postponement of several hearings today, including a Judiciary Committee oversight session with Bureau of Prisons Director COLETTE PETERS and a Foreign Affairs roundtable with key State and Defense officials on U.S. support for Israel.
- The Senate is getting its week started a little later than usual, due to the late return of a bipartisan codel to Israel and Saudi Arabia. With senators back in the building, we’ll get the first real temperature check on the White House’s $106 billion supplemental funding request. We know MITCH McCONNELL is generally for it, the MAGA right is generally against it, but expect some surprises. Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.), for instance, wants funding added for home-grown crises. More in Huddle
- It’s a long-running and poorly kept secret on Capitol Hill: Veteran Rep. SHEILA JACKSON LEE (D-Texas) is a tough boss, with one of the highest staff turnover rates in Congress. Now her reputation as a sharp-tongued taskmaster is out in the open, thanks to an audio clip of her berating an aide going viral amid her run for Houston mayor. Jackson Lee apologized, sort of, in a long statement last night: “At heart, I am someone who tells it straight,” she said. “I know that as much as that is a strength, it can sometimes be a challenge to balance.”
At the White House JOE BIDEN will award the National Medal of Science and the National Medal of Technology and Innovation in the morning. Later, Biden and First Lady JILL BIDEN will welcome Australian Prime Minister ANTHONY ALBANESE and partner JODIE HAYDON to the White House. VP KAMALA HARRIS has nothing on her public schedule.
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Part of the damage on al Rashid main Street caused by Israeli bombardment on Gaza City, Oct. 23, 2023. | Abed Khaled/AP | LATEST IN THE MIDDLE EAST — Days before an expected ground assault, Israel is ramping up its bombing campaign in the Gaza Strip, striking hundreds of targets as the White House continues to urge caution, WSJ’s Margherita Stancati and Benoit Faucon report. “U.S. officials said on Monday they are recommending that Israel not rush into a ground offensive before Washington has the chance to get military assets in place and prepared for use in the event of an expansion of the conflict. This will also allow Qatar to continue working to secure the release of additional hostages, the officials said.” In preparation for the assault, the Pentagon is dispatching multiple military advisers, including Marine Lt. Gen. JAMES GLYNN, to Israel “to help advise the Israeli military's leadership,” Axios’ Barak Ravid scoops: “Glynn and the other U.S. military officers are not directing operations but they do provide military advice to the IDF about its plans in Gaza.” In addition to the military advisers, AP's Tara Copp and Aamer Madhani report that the Pentagon is also shipping multiple advanced air defense systems to the Middle East to Israel to help with war planning. More 10/7 details emerge: “Israeli Military Shows Video Evidence of Oct. 7 Attacks, Some Taken From Militants’ Body Cams,” by WSJ’s Sune Engel Rasmussen and Shoshanna Solomon Elsewhere in the region: “White House says Iran 'actively facilitating' some attacks on US military bases,” by Reuters’ Steve Holland More top reads:
- Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI will visit Washington this week, State Department officials announced yesterday. “The three days of meetings, starting Thursday, are the latest sign that Beijing is laying the groundwork for a possible visit by Chinese President XI JINPING to a summit of Asia-Pacific leaders in San Francisco next month, which would be his first trip to the United States since 2017,” WaPo’s Michael Birnbaum notes.
- “Justice Department and Russian Billionaire Battle Over Seized Superyacht,” by WSJ’s Sadie Gurman
2024 WATCH
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Republican presidential candidate Senator Tim Scott speaks to a roomful of people at the New Beginnings Church in the Woodlawn neighborhood of Chicago, Ill., on Oct. 23, 2023. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | GREAT SCOTT — Tim Scott is working to reenergize his faltering presidential bid, shifting nearly all of his resources, including staff and advertising money to Iowa, Natalie reports: “The announcement — the first major reset of Scott’s campaign — comes with Scott polling at just under 2 percent nationally in the Republican primary, and as some prominent Republican allies express disappointment in the trajectory of his presidential bid.” Getting boots on the ground: “According to a person with knowledge of Scott’s plan, beginning after the November debate, Scott will travel across the state every week ahead of the caucuses, the campaign will double its staff on the ground in Iowa and they will open a new office in West Des Moines.” Meanwhile, Scott’s new approach was on full display yesterday during a campaign speech in Chicago, NYT’s Jonathan Weisman reports from the South Side. “It may have been delivered to Black Chicagoans, but the South Carolina senator’s broadsides — criticizing ‘the radical left,’ the first Black female vice president, Kamala Harris, and ‘liberal elites’ … were aimed at an audience far away. .. Republican voters in the early primary and caucus states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and the donors who have peeled away from his campaign.” More top reads:
- The WSJ is the latest to report that Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) is likely announcing a longshot Democratic primary challenge to Biden on Friday, hours before New Hampshire’s filing deadline. The usual caveats apply, Ken Thomas and John McCormick write: “People close to Phillips have said he hasn’t made a final decision but all indications are that he will enter the contest.”
- Prince George's County, Md., Executive ANGELA ALSOBROOKS continued rolling up major endorsements yesterday, winning Maryland Gov. WES MOORE’s nod for her bid to succeed retiring Sen. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.). Lt. Gov. ARUNA MILLER, former rival WILL JAWANDO and Howard County Executive CALVIN BALL also backed Alsobrooks in the Democratic primary race over Rep. DAVID TRONE, WaPo’s Erin Cox reports.
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|  Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) leaves federal court for a hearing on a bribery case, Monday, Oct. 23. | AP | BACK IN COURT — Indicted Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) pleaded not guilty in federal court yesterday to a new charge that he conspired to act as a foreign agent of Egypt while chairing the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Jason Beeferman reports. “Menendez, who withstood bribery charges in a 2017 mistrial, has insisted he is innocent of the latest charges and that prosecutors have targeted him. … He reiterated his innocence in a statement Monday. ‘The facts haven’t changed. The government is engaged in primitive hunting, by which the predator chases its prey until it’s exhausted and then kills it. This tactic won’t work,’ he said.” More top reads:
- Though embattled Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.) insists he isn't vacating his office amid ongoing legal troubles, roughly 30 candidates are lining up for their shot to take over the Long Island Republican’s competitive House seat, Emily Ngo reports this morning: “The race is vital: It’s one of about six battleground New York House races next year critical to determining who controls Congress. It’s also dizzying with the possibility of three elections in 10 months.”
- “Another GOP ‘Bombshell’ About Joe Biden Turns Out To Be A Dud,” by HuffPo’s Arthur Delaney: “HuffPost obtained check images and a spreadsheet reflecting wire transfer records that mostly corroborate [Democrats’] claim about the $200,000 transaction from March 2018. The documents suggest an account connected to Joe Biden sent JAMES BIDEN $40,000 in July 2017 and $200,000 in January 2018, and that James Biden paid the money back without interest. The wire transfer records do not say, however, that the payments to James Biden were loans.”
TRUMP CARDS NEW OVERNIGHT — “Trump files new challenges to federal election obstruction case in D.C.,” by WaPo’s Spencer S. Hsu and Perry Stein: “In court filings that landed moments before a midnight deadline, lawyers for Trump claimed he was a victim of political persecution by the Biden administration. They called the charges against Trump legally defective and vague, and said the indictment should not link him to the violence of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, because he is not charged with inciting that riot.” THE NAME GAME — In a campaign rally in New Hampshire yesterday, former President Trump appeared to mistake the leaders of Turkey and Hungary, Seb Starcevic reports: “‘There’s a man, VIKTOR ORBÁN, anybody ever hear of him?’ Trump said, referring to the Hungarian prime minister. ‘He’s probably, like, one of the strongest leaders anywhere in the world. He’s the leader of Turkey,’ the former president said. Turkey’s president is RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN. … Trump added that Orbán has a ‘front’ with Russia. Neither Turkey nor Hungary has a border with Russia.” WHAT A SCENE — “Trump and Cohen to Meet Again, This Time as Enemies at Trial,” by NYT’s Ben Protess and Joseph E. Bromwich POLICY CORNER SOLVENT SOLUTION — “Biden Administration Moves to Ban TCE, a Solvent Linked to Cancer,” by NYT’s Lisa Friedman: “The proposed ban is the latest twist in a yearslong debate over whether to regulate trichloroethylene … Prolonged exposure has been associated with effects in the liver, kidneys, immune system and central nervous system.” BEYOND THE BELTWAY TWO WEEKS OUT — “In deep red Kentucky, Democrats bet abortion will be a winning issue in the governor's race,” by NBC News’ Adam Edelman: “The race between [Kentucky Gov. ANDY] BESHEAR, the popular Democratic incumbent, and his Republican challenger, DANIEL CAMERON, the conservative attorney general, has emerged as yet another test of whether abortion rights can help Democrats in otherwise tough political terrain.” CLIMATE CORNER — “Gavin Newsom Wants to Export California’s Climate Laws to the World,” by NYT’s Coral Davenport
| | | | PLAYBOOK IS GOING GLOBAL! We’re excited to introduce Global Playbook, POLITICO’s premier newsletter that brings you inside the most important conversations at the most influential events in the world. From the buzzy echoes emanating from the snowy peaks at the WEF in Davos to the discussions and personalities at Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to the heart of diplomacy at UNGA in New York City – author Suzanne Lynch brings it all to your fingertips. Experience the elite. Witness the influential. And never miss a global beat. BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Larry Hogan said see ya to Harvard. Kevin Hern’s McSwag is missing something. Mike Collins went full dad and printed out his memes. OUT AND ABOUT — The International Women’s Media Foundation hosted its 2023 Courage in Journalism awards last night at the home of Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez. A team of women journalists from The Washington Post who reported from Ukraine in 2022 were among those honored. Other awardees included María Teresa Montaño Delgado, Yalda Moaiery and Shireen Abu Akleh. SPOTTED: Patty Stonesifer, Linda Douglass, Elisa Lees Munoz, Sally Buzbee, Margaret Brennan, Judy Woodruff, Andrea Mitchell, Norah O'Donnell, Asma Khalid, Eleanor Clift, Ayesha Rascoe, Katherine Bradley, Suzanne Malveaux, Leila Fadel, Anne Finucane, Jason and Yeganeh Rezaian, Imaeyen Ibanga, Amna Nawaz, Siobhan O'Grady, Anastacia Galouchka, Kamila Hrabchuk, David Shipley, Alex MacCallum, Vineet Khosla and Kathy Baird. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Center for American Progress is giving Lorella Praeli the first-ever John D. Podesta Progressive Champion Award. Praeli is the co-president of Community Change and Community Change Action. MEDIA MOVE — Matthew Brown is now a race and politics reporter at the AP. He previously was a democracy reporter at WaPo. WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Ryan Hubbard is now special assistant to the president for economic agency personnel. He most recently was White House liaison at NASA. TRANSITION — Zach Swint is now a managing director at 50 State. He most recently was a senior policy adviser at the Republican Governors Association and is a Trump White House alum. WEEKEND WEDDING — Liz Leibowitz, senior director of government relations at the ONE Campaign and a Cardin, Lowey and Biden USAID alum, and Ethan Green, a client success manager at Garter and Peace Corps alum, got married last night in Doylestown, Pa., in a sunset ceremony officiated by Hill Havurah Rabbi Hannah Spiro. Guests danced at a reception that included nods to the countries close to the couple’s heart and enjoyed s’mores around fire crackling pits. Pic … Another pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Brendan MacArthur, director of customer marketing at POLITICO, and Sanchi Khare, federal policy counsel at the Center for Reproductive Rights, welcomed Sloane Ishana MacArthur on Thursday. She came in at 8 lbs, 12 oz. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham … Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) … Reps. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) and Kweisi Mfume (D-Md.) … Tony Podesta … NYT’s Jonathan Weisman … Bloomberg’s Nancy Cook … The Counteroffensive’s Tim Mak … POLITICO’s Monica Akhtar … Henry Schuster of “60 Minutes” … Melissa Luce … Chris Wilson … David Ferguson … Matt Thornton … Chris Tuck of the Senate GOP … Bullpen Strategy Group’s Michael Ahrens … Rahul Chopra of the DCCC … Kristine Michalson of the House Press Gallery … Carl Cannon of RealClearPolitics … Jenna Schuette Talbot … Deadline’s Ted Johnson … Invariant’s Joey Smith … American Viewpoint’s Josh Davidson … former Reps. José E. Serrano (D-N.Y.) (8-0) and Mary Bono (R-Calif.) … Liz Spayd … Law360’s Kellie Mejdrich … Antonia Ferrier … Marty Baron … CNN’s Pamela Kirkland … Zephyr Teachout … Vox Media’s Lauren Starke … Patrick Cavanagh of the Steel Manufacturers Association Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Bethany Irvine and Andrew Howard.
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