Inside the other year-end funding fight

From: POLITICO Playbook - Monday Nov 27,2023 11:17 am

Nov 27, 2023

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By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels

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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

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DRIVING THE DAY

BREAKING OVERNIGHT — “Suspect arrested in Vermont shooting of 3 U.S. college students of Palestinian descent,” NBC News: “Police arrested a 48-year-old man in connection with Saturday night’s shooting [in Burtington, Vt.], as the FBI began an investigation and pressure grew to focus on the possibility of a hate motive.”

FOLLOW THE MONEY — “Donations to GOP drop as worries mount about the party’s finances,” by WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey: ““It’s a revenue problem,” Tennessee RNC member OSCAR BROCK said. … Donors have not cut as many large checks to the RNC in recent years, and the party’s small-dollar program has also suffered, according to people familiar with the party’s finances, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal party details.”

Chuck Schumer.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Capitol Hill June 22, 2021. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

WHAT SUPP? — Congress gave itself an early Christmas present by kicking the next government funding deadline into early 2024. But December still promises to pack plenty of spending drama.

There won’t be a shutdown at stake, but rather the fate of the White House’s $106 billion supplemental funding request for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and the U.S.-Mexico border. Lawmakers are returning from their Thanksgiving break this week facing sharp questions about what a failure to act will mean for America’s allies abroad — and whether they can find a way to avoid it.

Two key dynamics continue to drive the debate: First, the White House is insisting that its multifaceted funding request move in one piece due to fears that separating out Israel funding — with its overwhelming bipartisan support — would mean letting the more controversial Ukraine aid languish.

Second, rising Republican voter skepticism about continued Ukraine funding has prompted key GOP lawmakers to link the issue with their own demand: a border policy overhaul. Bipartisan talks that kicked off in the Senate earlier this month have yet to bear fruit, and the entire package has now stalled awaiting a breakthrough on what is perhaps the single toughest issue Congress has tackled in the past decade.

Congress, of course, does little without a firm deadline, and Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER used a trio of pressure tactics to try to gin up a sense of urgency in a Dear Colleague letter sent last night.

— He announced plans to hold a vote on the funding package as soon as next week. It’s an optimistic timeline, to say the least, for tackling an issue as bitterly divisive as immigration policy. But those who know the Hill know how this works: no deadline, no deal.

— Schumer also threatened to spoil members’ holiday plans if they continue to dig in. While the Senate is tentatively slated to adjourn on Dec. 15, Schumer wrote that “senators should be prepared to stay in Washington until we finish our work.” Again: classic stuff.

— He also announced an all-senators briefing this week on the latest in Ukraine, a huddle that comes amid rising fears that, without additional U.S. assistance, Ukraine will be all but forced to surrender to Russia.

“Remember what President [VOLODYMYR] ZELENSKYY told us in the Old Senate Chamber when he addressed Senators in September, ‘If we don’t get the aid, we will lose the war,’” Schumer wrote, telling colleagues the “trajectory of democracy” was at stake: “Nothing would make autocrats like [VLADIMIR] PUTIN or XI [JINPING] happier right now than to see the United States waver in our support for the Ukrainian people and its military.”

If the Senate can’t show significant progress toward a Ukraine-border deal, expect pressure to quickly mount to break up the funding package and deliver aid to Israel alone.

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That pressure is intensifying already this morning, with more than a dozen prominent religious leaders led by the conservative Faith and Freedom Coalition calling on Congress to immediately pass aid to Israel. Group leader RALPH REED, we hear, will be placing calls today to Schumer as well as Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL, House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON and House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES urging them not to allow stalled border negotiations to delay Israel funding. Read the group’s letter

“While Israelis are fighting for their right to live and exist as a nation, we have grave concerns that the aid package for Israel is being unnecessarily delayed,” Reed told Playbook in a statement. “We call on Congress to return from recess and act posthaste to get Israel the aid it needs … and send a powerful message that U.S. support for Israel is unequivocal.”

So where do things stand on the border talks? A bipartisan group of lawmakers — Sens. KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.), CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.), JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.), THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) and TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) — worked through the holiday break trying to hammer out a deal.

Bennet joked on CBS’ “Face the Nation” yesterday that he talked to Schumer every day during recess except Thanksgiving (which, he mentioned, also happened to be Schumer’s 73rd birthday).

“Everybody knows what's at stake here,” Bennet said. “And everybody knows how short the time is.”

Everyone also knows just how tricky the politics are. For instance, Senate Republicans are going to be loath to back any agreement unless they know it can pass the more conservative GOP-controlled House. It’s the old fear of “getting BTU’d,” and it played out as recently as last year, when many Senate Republicans joined Democrats to overhaul gun laws only after then-Speaker NANCY PELOSI vowed publicly to put it on the floor and send it to President JOE BIDEN for his signature.

Senate Republicans will now be looking to Speaker Johnson to endorse any border deal — or at least commit to putting it on the floor for a vote — and not deserting their GOP counterparts across the Rotunda.

“We don’t want any of our members going through something that would just be roundly rejected by our colleagues in the House,” Tillis told the WSJ over the weekend. “That would make no sense.”

That’s on top of the usual partisan bickering, which tends to be especially pointed when it comes to immigration issues. That certainly played out yesterday, with Schumer blaming Republicans for injecting a “decades old, hyper-partisan issue into overwhelmingly bipartisan priorities” while also not ruling out “common-sense solutions to address immigration.”

Earlier in the day, on “Meet the Press,” House Intelligence Chairman MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) put the blame for the funding delay squarely on Democrats and expressed skepticism that a deal could be worked out by the end of the year.

“The impediment, currently, is the White House policy on the southern border,” he said.

Happy negotiating!

COMING ATTRACTIONS — “Congress got its Christmas break — and will suffer for it in January,” by Jordain Carney, Burgess Everett and Sarah Ferris: “Progress on Ukraine, border and other fronts could in theory ease negotiations to avoid a shutdown next year. But with no signs that House Republicans are prepared to put weeks of self-inflicted drama behind them, lawmakers are preparing for a winter of woes.”

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS travel to Atlanta for a memorial service for ROSALYNN CARTER. … Wednesday: Q3 economic growth figures released. Biden holds a “Bidenomics” event in Pueblo, Colorado. Carter is laid to rest in Plains, Georgia. … Thursday: COP28 climate conference convenes in Dubai. Biden hosts Angolan President JOÃO MANUEL GONÇALVES LOURENÇO at the White House. Senate Judiciary Committee debates Supreme Court ethics subpoenas. National Christmas Tree is lit. Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS and California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM debate on Fox News. … Saturday: DONALD TRUMP holds campaign events in Ankeny and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. … Sunday: The 46th Kennedy Center Honors.

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. to take up JEFFREY BRYAN’s judicial nomination, with a cloture vote at 5:30 p.m.

The House is out.

3 things to watch …

The recent spate of congressional retirements is getting more and more media attention, and you can only expect the trend to continue now that members are coming back from the traditional holiday decision-time break. The states with candidate filing deadlines hitting in the next two weeks include some of the biggest delegations on the Hill — Illinois, Texas and California — and we’re watching especially closely to see if a certain ex-speaker sticks with his pledge to seek re-election.
Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.) all but acknowledged over the weekend that he’s not long for the United States Congress, but the exact timing of his exit remains in question. House Ethics Chairman MICHAEL GUEST (R-Miss.) filed an expulsion resolution before the break but did not call it up as a privileged matter. He (or another member) could do so as soon as tomorrow, setting up a two-thirds expulsion vote later this week.
Also covered in Schumer’s Dear Colleague yesterday was Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s ongoing blockade of Pentagon promotions. The majority leader pledged to “confront the .. extreme and unprecedented obstruction” by bringing a resolution to the floor that would allow for en bloc consideration of more than 350 nominations now being held by the Alabama Republican. Schumer said only it would happen “in the coming weeks,” giving the Senate GOP more time to hash out a long-promised workaround.

At the White House

Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning and in the afternoon will deliver remarks on the supply chain. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE and JOHN KIRBY will brief at 12 p.m.

Harris and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF in the morning will depart Los Angeles en route to Houston, Texas, where Harris will participate in a conversation as part of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ “On the Road” event series. In the evening, Harris and Emhoff will attend a campaign reception before departing Houston en route to Atlanta, Ga.

SUBSCRIBE TO CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes.

PLAYBOOK READS

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

Omar Atshan, 17, is hugged by his mother after being released from an Israeli prison.

Omar Atshan, 17, is hugged by his mother after being released from an Israeli prison in the West Bank town of Ramallah, on Sunday Nov. 26. | Nasser Nasser/AP

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Hamas’ release of a third round of hostages yesterday, including a 4-year-old dual U.S. citizen, brought with it a burst of hope and progress in the ongoing conflict. But the resumption of the fighting still looms.

“With the four-day truce due to expire Tuesday morning, aid groups rushed to increase deliveries to the enclave and Gazans braced for warplanes to return to the skies,” WaPo’s Miriam Berger, Susannah George and Hajar Harb report from Jerusalem.

Biden said yesterday he is hoping for an extension, and Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU in a phone call “told Biden that his government would accept an extension of the truce in exchange for the release of 10 hostages every day as the agreement says,” WSJ’s Summer Said, Margherita Stancati and Stephen Kalin write

There is a “slight issue” with today’s hostage release, per an official quoted by Reuters, but the agency reported “Qatari mediators were working with Israel and Hamas to resolve the issues and avoid delays.”

Related reads: “Hostage Releases Bring Reunions, Relief — And Growing Pressure to Free More,” by WSJ’s Isabel Coles, Dov Lieber and Anat Peled … “As Hamas Releases More Hostages, Longer Cease-Fire Appears Possible,” by NYT’s Vivian Yee, Isabel Kershner and Aaron Boxerman

Knowing Abigail: “Abigail Edan, 4, is symbol of hope after ‘terrible trauma,’” by WaPo’s Mariana Alfaro, Abigail Hauslohner and Christian Davenport: “For 50 days, Abigail’s family did not give up hope that the child — whom they have described as a precocious toddler who ‘ran’ her household — would return home. On Sunday, their hopes came true.”

Knowing the other hostages: “Among the 17 hostages released by Hamas, many are family members,” by NBC’s Doha Madani and Rebecca Cohen

Inside story: “Irregular meals, benches as beds. As hostages return to Israel, details of captivity begin to emerge,” by AP’s Julia Frankel in Jerusalem

More top reads:

The U.S. Navy “thwarted an attempted hijacking Sunday off Yemen of a tanker owned by an Israeli billionaire,” WaPo’s Ben Brasch and Dan Lamothe report. “The attempted seizure of the Central Park, a chemical tanker, came after at least two other tankers were similarly attacked in incursions thought to have had ties to the conflict between Israel and Hamas.”
“Battle for Influence Rages in Heart of Wagner’s Operations in Africa,” by NYT’s Elian Peltier: “The death of the mercenary group’s leader has created a window of opportunity in the Central African Republic for Western powers to offer an alternative.”

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TRUMP CARDS

Former President Donald Trump waves to a crowd.

Former President Donald Trump waves to the crowd after giving remarks at the South Texas International airport on Nov. 19 in Edinburg, Texas. | Michael Gonzalez/Getty Images

FROM THE TRIALS … Donald Trump has begun presenting his defense in the civil fraud trial, and so far it's not much of a defense. Trump seems destined to lose the $250 million trial — but it could be a while before he feels any effects, our colleague Erica Orden writes in New York.

“Even the most punitive verdict is unlikely to immediately devastate Trump’s businesses. The case will be subject to lengthy appeals in the New York state courts — and Trump seems to be counting on that appeals process to avoid exorbitant fines and salvage his businesses.”

Meanwhile, in the D.C. federal case against Trump, his team is expected to file new motions today, “this time related to which witnesses he’d like to subpoena,” WaPo’s Devlin Barrett and Perry Stein write. “Since his defense team argues this is a case of politically motivated, selective prosecution, we could see him seek permission from the court to subpoena Democrats and government figures he wants to put on the witness stand.”

… TO THE TRAIL — As the former president continues on his glidepath toward the GOP nomination, he is eyeing a “moderate” stance on abortion, regardless of what the rest of his party wants him to say and do, Rolling Stone’s Tessa Stuart and Asawin Suebsaeng report.

“In recent weeks, according to two people familiar with the matter, Donald Trump has privately remarked that several anti-abortion leaders — people who spent the past year pushing him to commit to enacting a draconian national ban — now have no ‘leverage’ to force him to do anything. Despite their very public pressure campaign for that abortion ban, the former president insists that they will all fall in line and back him soon enough — with or without specific policy promises — in large part because they have nowhere else to turn.”

WHITHER THE INSURRECTION ACT — “Trump hints at expanded role for the military within the US. A legacy law gives him few guardrails,” by AP’s Gary Fields

THE WHITE HOUSE

A COP OUT — A White House official made official what was previously an expectation that Biden will not attend the U.N. climate summit known as COP28 when it convenes a host of world leaders in Dubai later this week. Our colleague Jonathan Lemire reported on Nov. 3 that Biden was not expected to make the trip and that he would not make any more international travel for the calendar year. The U.S. delegation will be led by climate envoy JOHN KERRY.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE DROUGHT DOLLARS — The Biden administration has said it will spend more than $1 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act to pull off a water sharing deal out west. The deal was aimed at keeping the Colorado River out of crisis in the next few years while Arizona, California and Nevada negotiate a new plan for the climate-shriveled waterway. But that gusher of federal cash now is driving up the cost of actually resolving the river’s problems going forward.

“A POLITICO investigation has found that many of the deals to save water under the three-year $1.2 billion pact struck by Arizona, California and Nevada in May are driving up the value of existing agreements to save or transfer water by nearly 50 percent,” our colleague Annie Snider reports. “In California alone, POLITICO found that at least a third of the state’s conservation commitment comes from water that was already available under prior, less expensive agreements.

GET A BACKSTAGE PASS TO COP28 WITH GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Get insider access to the conference that sets the tone of the global climate agenda with POLITICO's Global Playbook newsletter. Authored by Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook delivers exclusive, daily insights and comprehensive coverage that will keep you informed about the most crucial climate summit of the year. Dive deep into the critical discussions and developments at COP28 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12. SUBSCRIBE NOW.

PLAYBOOKERS

Kevin McCarthy’s grasp of American history is getting fact-checked.

Liz Truss wants more “American leadership” on Ukraine, Taiwan and other matters.

TRANSITIONS — Philip Cronin is now director of government advocacy at Chime. He most recently managed government relations for McDonald’s and is a Harris Jones & Malone alum. … Lauryn Fanguen is now a regional press secretary at the DCCC. She previously was a comms manager at Planned Parenthood. … Kaivan Shroff is joining Dream for America as press secretary. He is a senior adviser for the Institute for Education and is an Everytown for Gun Safety alum.

ENGAGED — Mariafernanda Zacarias, national engagement director at the DCCC, and Tomás Kloosterman, special adviser for public engagement at the U.S. Small Business Administration, got engaged in Palm Beach, Fla., last week. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) … U.S. Ambassador to Australia Caroline Kennedy … Alex Wagner … Rich Verma and Sean Bartlett of State … Mary Vought … Sam Love … POLITICO’s Adam Cancryn and Solomon Yeon … Jason Gold … Brian McCormack … Nick Massella of PBS NewsHour … Jasmin Alemán … Ryan Morgan of Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-Minn.) office … Nick Wittenberg of Deloitte … Axios’ Victoria Knight … Michael Starr Hopkins of Northern Starr Strategies … Shai Korman of the Center for a New American Security … John Aravosis (6-0) … Susan Falconer of Rep. Diana Harshbarger’s (R-Tenn.) office … American Airlines’ Gary Tomasulo … former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) … former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty … former Rep. Jon Runyan (R-N.J.) … Joe Solmonese … NBC’s Libby Leist … Dina Cappiello of RMI … Jacob Reses of Sen. J.D. Vance’s (R-Ohio) office … DNC’s Eve Levenson … Kathryn Ciano Mauler ... Daniel Samet

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