Playbook PM: McConnell all but dooms the Jan. 6 commission

From: POLITICO Playbook - Wednesday May 19,2021 05:45 pm

May 19, 2021

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A NAIL IN THE COFFIN FOR 1/6 COMMISSION? — “McConnell opposes House’s bipartisan Jan. 6 commission bill,” by Burgess Everett: “[Senate Minority Leader MITCH] MCCONNELL had signaled on Tuesday that he was undecided but came down more firmly after another day of deliberations, according to a person with direct knowledge of his remarks. The Kentucky Republican’s stance casts serious doubt on the future of legislation creating a bipartisan commission on the Capitol riot — a bill set to pass the House later Wednesday — if major changes aren’t made.”

— McConnell didn’t answer when CNN’s Manu Raju asked if he would whip his members to vote against it.

The math is simple: If Democrats can’t find 10 Senate Republicans to join them, it won’t happen. And even that level of support now seems unlikely:

— Sen. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) told reporters today that she’d support the bill only after changes — including a guarantee that the commission’s work wouldn’t stretch into 2022.

— Sen. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.) said that hearing from House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY made him less likely to support the proposal.

— Sen. THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) has moved from maybe to no.

— Sens. MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah) and TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) are maybes.

— “Republicans fear January 6 probe could undercut 2022 midterm message,” CNN: “Publicly and privately, Republicans are making that case, with Senate GOP Whip JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.) noting that there’s concern among some GOP members that the findings of the probe ‘could be weaponized politically and drug into next year.’”

Next up: All eyes are on House Republicans this afternoon as we find out how many will break with McCarthy — and now McConnell — and vote to create the commission.

— But for some on the left, the takeaway is already clear: The opposition of both McConnell and McCarthy shows that even when Democrats negotiate and compromise with Republicans, it gets them nowhere. Expect the final vote around 5 p.m. after an hour of debate.

BIDEN CRANKING UP THE PRESSURE ON BIBI — The White House’s readout of the latest call this morning between President JOE BIDEN and Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU didn’t mince words: “The President conveyed to the Prime Minister that he expected a significant de-escalation today on the path to a ceasefire.”

But it won’t be so easy: Around the same time that the readout appeared, news broke that “several rockets were fired Wednesday from south Lebanon toward Israel, the third such barrage in the past week.” More from the AP in Beirut … And after the call, Netanyahu stood firm, declaring that he’s “determined to continue this operation until its aim is met.”

PRESSURE FROM THE LEFT — “AOC to Introduce Resolution Blocking Bomb Sale to Israel,” Jewish Currents: “The resolution would halt the planned transfer of so-called JDAMs, or Joint Direct Attack Munitions, and of Small Diameter Bombs … [C]o-sponsors include Reps. MARK POCAN (D-Wis.), RASHIDA TLAIB (D-Mich.), CORI BUSH (D-Mo.), BETTY MCCOLLUM (D-Minn.), AYANNA PRESSLEY (D-Mass.) and ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.). … The resolution Ocasio-Cortez will introduce is known as a joint resolution of disapproval … Still, it’s unlikely the resolution will get past the entire 51-member [foreign affairs] committee.” The resolution

Good Wednesday afternoon.

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GRADUATION SEASON — Speaking at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy commencement today, Biden cast the new graduates as part of the effort to fight the pandemic, climate change and the great power competition on the global stage: “The world is changing. We need you even more.” He also reiterated his commitment to taking on sexual assault in the military.

— Please clap: When the graduates didn’t applaud a Biden joke poking fun at the Navy, he called them out: “You’re a really dull class. Come on, man. Is the sun getting to you?”

HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL — “Capito Sees More Than 50% Chance of Biden Infrastructure Deal,” Bloomberg: “[Republican West Virginia Sen.] SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO, speaking in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s ‘Balance of Power’ Wednesday, said the next two weeks will be critical in determining whether there’ll be a deal with the White House. She doubted, however, that a bill can make it through the House and Senate by a July 4 deadline proposed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.”

MORE ON INFRASTRUCTURE YEAR — Brian Faler has an important reality check this morning about Dems’ infrastructure pay-fors: Turns out that when you get into the weeds, one of their big ideas might not work because it’s not allowed under Congress’ budget rules.

“A two-decade-old rule bars lawmakers from paying for legislation with money generated from things like beefing up IRS audits of the rich. It’s a crucial problem Democrats are now confronting behind closed doors,” Brian writes. “Lawmakers are now discussing ways around the rules, with some pushing to overturn them. … [The rules exist] because government forecasters have long considered those savings too iffy to be relied upon.”

SPEAKING OF THE IRS — “Trump’s pick for IRS chief is now faced with implementing Biden’s economic agenda,” WaPo: “The awkward arrangement has led senior Biden administration officials and key congressional Democrats to wonder if [CHARLES] RETTIG is the right person for the job … The situation is viewed as delicate in part because the administration does not want to antagonize the agency given its crucial role in executing Democrats’ domestic policy agenda …

“Despite the unease, Rettig appears likely to keep his job for now and may even serve out the remainder of his term, which is scheduled to end November 2022. He has acted the part of enthusiastic bureaucrat, making statements that reflect what Democrats in Congress want to hear and not sending any signals that he will flinch at the directives. Some Democrats fear removing Rettig would embroil the tax agency in a political controversy.”

NOT BACKING DOWN IN GEORGIA — “Brad Raffensperger: ‘Yes, I’m running again,’” Atlanta Journal-Constitution: “[Georgia’s Republican Secretary of State BRAD RAFFENSPERGER has] an uphill battle ahead of him, with a primary challenge from U.S. Rep. JODY HICE, who has joined Trump in false claims about the 2020 elections, and state Rep. BEE NGUYEN, a rising Democratic star, in the race, too.”

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THE GOP’S 2023 AGENDA — “GOP to Democrats: If you raise taxes now, we’ll cut them back when we win power,” NBC: “Republicans are quick to say Democrats’ gains may be short-lived. … Tillis added that if the taxes are cut, future lawmakers would be less likely to continue expansions of the economic safety net because of a lack of revenue. …

“For Democrats, the longevity of the tax increases — and potentially the economic programs they're designed to finance — could hinge on making the higher taxes so popular that Republicans would fear a backlash if they cut them in the future.”

— @mattyglesias notes: “The corporate tax cut — not Charlottesville, not the bizarre Helsinki meeting, not any of the scandals — was the low point of Trump’s approval rating.”

GETTING THE GANG BACK TOGETHER — “White House brings back climate scientist forced out by Trump administration,” WaPo: “The Biden administration has reinstalled the director of the federal climate program that produces the U.S. government’s definitive reports on climate change, after the Trump administration removed him in November.

“MICHAEL KUPERBERG, the climate scientist who ran the program for six years during Democratic and Republican administrations, was reinstated Monday, the White House confirmed. … ‘I’m really excited to be back,’ Kuperberg said in an interview, calling the timing of his return ‘perfect,’ considering the Biden administration’s emphasis on global warming.”

HOW SCIENCE UNDERCUT LABOR — “‘Public Health 101 failure’: CDC mask decision may knock out Biden’s workplace Covid crackdown,” by Rebecca Rainey: “The White House is in the last stages of finalizing emergency Covid-19 workplace safety rules from OSHA, which unions, management-side attorneys and workplace safety experts broadly expected to include a mask mandate — until the administration’s latest changes to its guidelines last week.

“Worker safety advocates now fear the Biden administration is abandoning its promise to issue stringent workplace safety rules employers must follow to protect their workers from the coronavirus, and experts in the field are bewildered.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY — “America’s unemployment system failed when it was needed most. Can it be fixed?” by Katherine Landergan in Philadelphia: “Politicians and labor experts warn the country isn’t heeding the lessons of the past year and worry if Washington and all 50 states don’t act, the next Big One could be just as bad. The solution isn’t simple and will require a coordinated, multibillion-dollar undertaking, with governors, Congress and the president working together on the biggest overhaul since the social safety net was created …

“The not-so-sexy topic of unemployment insurance system reform — the economic equivalent of replacing aging water pipes — has been quietly dominating policy conversations at every level of government and is about to break into the mainstream. With a $2 billion stimulus allocation for unemployment modernization and fraud prevention, and hundreds of billions more in federal aid raining down on states eager to spend, many are preparing to act.”

PAGING AMY CONEY BARRETT — “Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signs into law one of nation’s strictest abortion measures, banning procedure as early as six weeks into a pregnancy,” Texas Tribune: “The signing of the bill opens a new frontier in the battle over abortion restrictions as first-of-its-kind legal provisions — intended to make the law harder to block — are poised to be tested in the courts.

“Abortion rights advocates have promised to challenge the new law, which they consider one of the most extreme across the country and the strictest in Texas since the landmark Roe v. Wade decision. The law takes effect in September. … Instead of having the government enforce the law, the bill turns the reins over to private citizens — who are newly empowered to sue abortion providers or anyone who helps someone get an abortion after a fetal heartbeat has been detected.”

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MEANWHILE, OUT WEST — “Nevada is on the verge of passing a public option,” Vox

WHAT TOM VILSACK IS READING — “Banks Fight $4 Billion Debt Relief Plan for Black Farmers,” NYT: “The Biden administration’s efforts to provide $4 billion in debt relief to minority farmers is encountering stiff resistance from banks, which are complaining that the government initiative to pay off the loans of borrowers who have faced decades of financial discrimination will cut into their profits and hurt investors.

“The debt relief was approved as part of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package that Congress passed in March and was intended to make amends for the discrimination that Black and other nonwhite farmers have faced from lenders and the United States Department of Agriculture over the years. But no money has yet gone out the door. Instead, the program has become mired in controversy and lawsuits.”

SPILLOVER EFFECT — “Mexico’s coronavirus deaths are plummeting. The ‘Biden wall’ could be a factor,” WaPo/Mexico City: “Scientists and government officials say the pandemic seems to be abating — at least temporarily — because of increasing levels of immunity on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border. As much as half the Mexican population has developed antibodies because the coronavirus circulated so widely over the past year. In addition, U.S. vaccinations appear to be blocking the southward spread of the virus.”

MEDIAWATCH — “What’s the next mega media deal? Maybe nothing,” CNN: “Following the mega-merger between Discovery and CNN’s parent company WarnerMedia on Monday, the biggest question in the media world now is ‘what’s next?’

“In one way or another, the prevailing view by media observers seems that more mergers and acquisitions are on the way. But here’s a contrarian perspective: What if the the most important M&A deals are behind us — at least for the foreseeable future?”

FUN READ ON THE NEW ONLINE LEFT — “An ‘Army of 16-Year-Olds’ Takes On the Democrats,” NYT/Boston: “Young progressives are an unpredictable new factor in Massachusetts elections. They’re ardent, and organized, and they don’t take orders.”

TRANSITION — Carl Risch is now a partner in Mayer Brown’s global mobility and migration practice. He previously was assistant secretary of State for consular affairs.

BONUS BIRTHDAY: Ben Teicher (27)

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