Playbook PM: SCOTUS sticks a fork in GOP's war on the ACA

From: POLITICO Playbook - Thursday Jun 17,2021 05:24 pm

Jun 17, 2021

By Rachael Bade, Garrett Ross and Eli Okun

Presented by

BREAKING… Around noon, the House Judiciary Committee sent its first document request to A.G. MERRICK GARLAND about the Trump Justice Department’s secret subpoenas of journalists and Democratic lawmakers.

SCOTUS SAVES OBAMACARE… AGAIN — POLITICO’s superstar health care editor-at-large Joanne Kenen writes in following SCOTUS’ Obamacare ruling this morning:

The Supreme Court today stuck a fork in Republicans’ decade-long attempt to kill or dismantle the Affordable Care Act.

In a 7-2 ruling — with conservative Justices JOHN ROBERTS, BRETT KAVANAUGH, AMY CONEY BARRETT and CLARENCE THOMAS joining the three liberals — the Court said that neither individuals nor the Texas-led group of conservative states that brought the suit had legal grounds to sue. They gave the case a one-way ticket back to the lower court — an order, in effect, to make it go away.

At this point, the Court’s message is clear: The ACA is the law of the land. (A phrase JOHN BOEHNER used back in 2012, with predictable harm to his own political health.)

— For Democrats, it’s a sigh of relief. They may spar over whether to build on the ACA or move to a single payer system but in the short term, they will defend and improve their historic achievement. The message may be muddled at times, but it’s a message.

— For Republicans, it presents a huge political void. Opposition to the ACA was more than a message; it was a visceral part of what it means to be a Republican. That’s now hollowed out. What will replace it? The mask wars will fizzle out. Buzzwords like “choice” and “transparency” will only get them so far.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that conservatives won’t try yet again — “three strikes; you’re out” applies to baseball, not litigation. And while the national conversation at this very moment isn’t about health care — it’s racial justice and voting — it’s only a matter of time until health care will rise again. It always does.

And when that happens, the GOP will have to figure out what it wants to say. Voids don’t get votes. More from Susannah Luthi and Josh Gerstein

— WaPo’s Dan Diamond (@ddiamond): “June 28, 2012: ACA survives*, 5-4 … June 25, 2015: ACA survives, 6-3 … June 17, 2021: ACA survives, 7-2”

— HuffPost’s @IgorBobic reflects on Justices BRETT KAVANAUGH and AMY CONEY BARRETT agreeing with their more liberal peers in upholding the ACA, noting that during the justices’ confirmation battles, Senate Democrats blared warnings that they’d upend Obamacare. “A vote by any senator for Judge Amy Coney Barrett is a vote to strike down the Affordable Care Act and eliminate protections for millions of Americans with pre-existing conditions,” Schumer warned at the time. Turns out: not so much!

MORE FROM SCOTUS — “Supreme Court sides with Catholic group that turns away same-sex couples as foster parents,” by Josh Gerstein

MANCHIN GETS A SIGNIFICANT NEW ALLY ON VOTING RIGHTS — “Abrams: I would ‘absolutely’ back Manchin’s voting rights compromise,” by Quint Forgey: “STACEY ABRAMS on Thursday threw her support behind Sen. JOE MANCHIN’S proposed revisions to congressional Democrats’ expansive election and ethics reform bill, conferring him the endorsement of one of the nation’s premier voting rights activists.

“‘What Sen. Manchin is putting forward are some basic building blocks that we need to ensure that democracy is accessible no matter your geography,’ Abrams said [in a CNN interview]. Abrams went on to describe the tenets of Manchin’s proposal as ‘strong ones that will create a level playing field, will create standards that do not vary from state to state, and I think will ensure that every American has improved access to the right to vote.’” 5-minute interview

— Abrams also told NPR’s Steve Inskeep in an interview this morning that, “in totality, the proposals from Joe Manchin absolutely make sense.”

— THOUGHT BUBBLE: It will be interesting to see how Abrams’ embrace of Manchin’s compromise plays among Hill progressives, who have been bullying the centrist over his objections, and — especially — how Democratic leaders react. Remember: As voting rights advocates and CBC members have called on House Speaker NANCY PELOSI to go narrower than H.R.1/S.1, she has pushed back, saying that what Manchin has put forward is no substitute for reforms that are needed to clean up elections.

BUT, BUT, BUT, increasingly, influential voices in the party are clamoring for actual compromise here. (Not that compromise would actually win 10 Senate Republicans. That’s still a stretch, and Abrams’ endorsement may have actually made it harder for GOPers to get to “yes.”)

Abrams’ interview also highlights divisions among Democrats over an issue that is critical to Republicans: ID requirements for voting. Notably, H.R.1/S.1, which is expected to get a Senate vote next week, includes provisions that undercut state ID requirements, which some Democrats view as a hindrance for minorities and low-income Americans who may not have a driver’s licence. Abrams signaling she is open to protecting those safeguards — an idea Manchin has also used to try to allure the GOP to a deal on voting issues — is really interesting.

Good Thursday afternoon. PROGRAMMING NOTE: Playbook PM will be off tomorrow in observance of Juneteenth. But Playbook will be in your inbox tomorrow morning at the regular time.

A message from Amazon:

Voters of both parties support wage increases.
The most recent elections made it clear: Voters in both political parties support a higher wages. The federal minimum wage hasn’t changed in 12 years, despite significant cost-of-living increases. Amazon saw the need to do more for their employees and communities and established a $15 an hour starting wage in 2018.

THE INFRASTRUCTURE DANCE — “Senate Democrats weigh $6T infrastructure bill, without GOP,” by Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett: “Senate Democrats are weighing spending as much as $6 trillion on their own infrastructure package if the chamber's bipartisan talks fail, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

“Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER has repeatedly insisted that infrastructure talks are currently on two tracks: The first track is bipartisan, while the second track will include priorities that have no chance of getting GOP support. He huddled on Wednesday afternoon with Democratic members of the Budget Committee to discuss strategy, with no firm decision reached. Senate Budget Chair BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) has been pushing for an aggressive approach to the infrastructure talks.”

— TO WIT: Pelosi at her weekly news conference this morning: “We know that one bill is not going to do it for us.” She also indicated, unsurprisingly, that she does not support a gas tax, and doesn’t like to discuss pay-fors at the beginning of negotiations.

MEANWHILE… Some moderate Democrats in this group of 20 centrists are griping about their framework for an infrastructure deal being released publicly. Sen. MARK WARNER (D-Va.), a member of the “mod squad,” told our Burgess Everett this: “We’re still in the midst of discussions. Nothing’s agreed to until everybody’s agreed there is a deal. And there are parts of that document that are floating around that, frankly, haven’t been agreed to. Both on the list of pay-fors and even” in some of the spending.

He continued: “There’s certain areas where the White House was saying that: ‘we’d like to make the case for maybe a plus-up there and maybe take something there.’ And the problem with the document getting out [is] everybody thinks, ‘gosh, this is it.’”

— “AOC: Bipartisan deals often ‘underserve the communities that are already underserved,’” by Quint Forgey

WATCH — What happened with Biden and Putin, explained: The highly anticipated meeting between Biden and Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN is over, and RYAN interviews Global Translations author RYAN HEATH about what to expect moving forward. They discuss everything from Putin’s usual tactics to Biden’s attempted damage control after a tense moment with CNN’s KAITLAN COLLINS at the very end of his press conference.

THE UNEMPLOYMENT PICTURE — “U.S. jobless claims tick up to 412,000 from a pandemic low,” AP: “The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose last week for the first time since April despite widespread evidence that the economy and the job market are rebounding steadily from the pandemic recession. The Labor Department said Thursday that jobless claims rose 37,000 from the week before to 412,000. … Weekly applications for unemployment aid had dropped for six straight weeks, and economists had expected another dip last week.”

A message from Amazon:

Amazon starting wage: $15
Federal minimum wage: $7.25

Amazon has seen the impact $15 can make. Learn more.

POWELL PLAYS THE LONG GAME — “The Economic Gauges Are Going Nuts. Jerome Powell Is Taking a Longer View,” by NYT’s Neil Irwin: “In this most unusual recovery, the signals that economic policymakers use to inform their decisions are going haywire. What is one to make, for example, of the combination of strong growth in jobs and wages paired with millions of working-age people who seem to have no interest in returning to the work force?

“It’s easy to imagine JEROME POWELL, the Federal Reserve chair, as a pilot in unfamiliar territory with malfunctioning gauges. He’s doing what you’d want a pilot to do in those circumstances: looking to the horizon. … He is resisting the urge to conclude that the pandemic fundamentally changed the most important dynamics.”

KNOWIN’ YELLEN — “Yellen carefully navigates inflation test, challenging skeptics one more time,” by WaPo’s Jeff Stein: “[Treasury Secretary JANET] YELLEN, 74, has occasionally struggled to translate her scholarly views to the public since her appointment. She caused the stock market to dive last month, for instance, by trying to address inflation fears and explain the mechanics of central bank interest rate policy.

“But aides and colleagues insist Yellen’s presentation style belies a political savvy that has propelled her to greater prominence — initially as the first female chair of the Federal Reserve, now as the first female treasury secretary — than any female economist in American history. … In navigating heavily male congressional and business arenas, some observers say, she makes a point of praising men’s observations where consistent with her positions — careful to avoid alienating allies, while simultaneously standing firmly behind her own carefully considered arguments.”

NOTHING UNITES LIKE A CRISIS — “For Republicans, ‘Crisis’ Is the Message as the Outrage Machine Ramps Up,” by NYT’s Jonathan Weisman: “[F]or divided House Republicans, outrage may be the tie that binds — at least their leaders hope so. … There is a method to all the remonstrance. Representative ELISE STEFANIK of New York, who took over as the message maestro of the Republican conference after the banishment of Representative LIZ CHENEY, hatched the crisis strategy as one of her first ventures, [Rep. TOM] COLE said, distributing talking points this month on the perils facing the country.

“He thought the list had five crises; Representative CATHY MCMORRIS RODGERS, Republican of Washington, remembered four. The idea is that with Democrats in control of the White House, House and Senate, next year’s midterm elections will be a referendum on one-party control, not on Republican governing plans, said Mr. Cole, a former chairman of the House Republicans’ campaign arm. The Republicans, at least this early in the political cycle, need to seed a sense of instability, overreach and fear, he said.”

DON'T MISS THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO will feature a special edition of our Future Pulse newsletter at the 2021 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators who are turning lessons learned from the past year into a healthier, more resilient and more equitable future. Covid-19 threatened our health and well-being, while simultaneously leading to extraordinary coordination to improve pandemic preparedness, disease prevention, diversity in clinical trials, mental health resources, food access and more. SUBSCRIBE TODAY to receive exclusive coverage from June 22-24.

THE FRUITS OF BIDEN’S LABOR — “U.S., EU Forge Closer Ties on Emerging Technologies to Counter Russia and China,” by WSJ’s Daniel Michaels in Brussels: “The U.S. and European Union plan to cooperate more on technology regulation, industrial development and bilateral trade following President Biden’s visit, in a bid to help Western allies better compete with China and Russia on developing and protecting critical and emerging technologies.

“Central to the increased coordination will be a new high-level Trade and Technology Council the two sides unveiled Tuesday. The aim of the TTC is to boost innovation and investment within and between the two allied economies, strengthen supply chains and avert unnecessary obstacles to trade, among other tasks.”

HONG KONG LATEST — “Hong Kong Cracks Down on a Pro-Democracy Newspaper,” NYT: “When the Hong Kong police last year arrested JIMMY LAI, a pugnacious newspaper publisher, they seemed to be going after a longtime government critic. On Thursday, the city’s authorities sent a message to the rest of the media industry: be careful what you write.

“Hundreds of police officers raided the newsroom of Mr. Lai’s defiantly pro-democracy newspaper, Apple Daily, scrutinized journalists’ computers, arrested top editors, froze company accounts and warned readers not to repost some of its articles online. The raid and new restrictions were the most aggressive use yet of Hong Kong’s sweeping national security law, imposed last year by Beijing, against a media outlet, and could put the newspaper’s survival in question.”

VALLEY TALK — “Tech Industry’s Glory Days in Washington Are Over,” by WSJ’s Brody Mullins and Julie Bykowicz: “In Congress, Democrats and some Republicans are working to rein in the largest tech companies with proposals aimed at curbing their market power. Lawmakers are cheering antitrust probes by the Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission that could force these companies to shed acquisitions that were rubber-stamped by the government.

“In the White House, Mr. Biden has shunned job applicants with ties to large technology companies. His decision to appoint [LINA] KHAN as FTC chairwoman Wednesday made one thing clear: There is to be no sequel to the tech industry’s glory days during BARACK OBAMA’S eight years in the White House.”

FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK — “U.S. urges 'very substantial' prison term for Michael Avenatti over Nike extortion,” Reuters

CLIMATE FILES — “Climate Change Batters the West Before Summer Even Begins,” NYT: “This month has offered glimpses of whether states and cities are up to that task and has shown they still have far to go. From Montana to Southern California, much of the West is suffering from unusually high temperatures. Some 50 million Americans face heat-related warnings.”

SUBSCRIBE TO WEST WING PLAYBOOK: Add West Wing Playbook to keep up with the power players, latest policy developments and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing and across the highest levels of the Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

BOOK CLUB — “‘Fire and Fury’ author writes new Trump book ‘Landslide,’” AP: “MICHAEL WOLFF’S ‘Landslide: The Final Days of the Trump Presidency’ is scheduled for July 27, publisher Henry Holt told The Associated Press on Thursday. [Former President DONALD] TRUMP, who condemned ‘Fire and Fury’ and attempted to have its publication halted, is among those who spoke to Wolff for his new book, according to Holt.”

THE GREATEST FILMS OF ALL TIME WERE NEVER MADE … “How Infighting Killed the NY Times’ Chance at a GameStop Movie Deal,” by the Daily Beast’s Lachlan Cartwright and Maxwell Tani

MEDIAWATCH — Tina Sfondeles is joining POLITICO as a primary writer for West Wing Playbook. She most recently covered the White House and Democrats for Insider. Theo Meyer is stepping back from West Wing Playbook to cover lobbying and influence.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Stephonn Alcorn has been promoted to be racial justice and equity policy analyst at the White House. He most recently was special assistant for racial justice and equity and economic mobility to the Domestic Policy Council.

TRUMP ALUMNI — Brock Murphy is now an executive assistant at SpaceX. He most recently was a confidential assistant at OMB.

TRANSITIONS — Tony Jewell is now executive director at Neurocrine Biosciences. He most recently was the founder of Boardwalk Public Relations and is also a Bush 43 HHS alum. … Bob Robertson is now chief marketing officer at Jackson Lewis. He most recently was a senior consultant at PP&C Consulting. … BCom Solutions is adding Martha Gravlee as director of digital strategy and Sam Alberti as digital strategist.