5 questions for Zak Kallenborn

From: POLITICO's Digital Future Daily - Friday Oct 20,2023 08:39 pm
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By Matt Berg

Presented by CTIA – The Wireless Association

With help from Derek Robertson

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Zak Kallenborn

Zak Kallenborn.

Hello, and welcome to this week’s installment of The Future In Five Questions. This week I spoke with Zak Kallenborn, a George Mason University policy fellow. He’s a leading expert on autonomous weapons who’s been featured in several of our pieces this year on the topic, including on the ethics of killer drones and killer drone swarms. Kallenborn has also been dubbed a “mad scientist” by the U.S. Army. 

Today, he talks about the recent use of autonomous weapons in Ukraine, the potential for Israel to use drones for its imminent ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, why AI might be slightly overplayed (like we talked about in last week’s edition) and his hope for an autonomous weapons policy going forward. The following has been condensed and edited for clarity:

What’s one underrated big idea right now?

Drone warfare has been shifting and people have really started waking up to what's going on here. I would have told you recently that we're not paying enough attention. It's still somewhat true — we're not paying enough attention to drones and other domains. But I think Ukraine has really woken people up and we have increasing attention to the domain of drone warfare.

I also suspect that drone warfare will be an important part of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. We've already seen that a little bit with Hamas’ use of drones in knocking out communication towers. I expect to see Israel employ a significant number of drones if and when they end up launching that ground invasion, given the dense urban environment in Gaza and its extensive tunnels where the potential risk of surprise ambush is very high.

So, if you can shift that risk from the individual soldier to a robot, where you don’t care if the robot dies — no one's gonna cry except the accountants — that potentially could be really useful.

What’s a technology that you think is overhyped?

I think hype is valuable. It’s really just another way of saying excitement, what are people talking about and their interests? That excitement is what drives people to go off into the crazy unknown and see what happens and take bigger risks and hope for big rewards.

To answer the question more directly, I think AI is somewhat overhyped, but I think the hype is good. I’m skeptical that AI is going to lead to drastic revolutions and warfare with everything incorporated, at least in the short-term. But I also think that AI absolutely has tremendously broad applications where you can potentially buy it pretty much everywhere in some capacity.

What book most shaped your conception of the future?

“Wired for War” by P.W. Singer was absolutely influential in thinking about the future of war and robotic systems writ large. It’s an appreciation for where the technology is and where it's going, and the level of involvement at organizations, from militaries to tech companies.

Also significant is the general work of Philip Tetlock in “Superforecasting.” It’s excellent in terms of how we think about the future, and also being very humble about it. One of his findings is that experts who have studied this stuff for a long time are actually not much better in general than laypeople in terms of forecasting political events. It's very important to have that humility, and he explains how to think more usefully about the future.

What could government be doing regarding technology that it isn’t?

We could do more to lead global collaboration to reduce catastrophic and existential risks, especially technology-related risks like artificial intelligence and nanotechnology. Although the U.S. has been doing a lot in individual silos like climate change and planetary defense, we could do more to integrate governmental efforts at high levels of policy and lead global collaboration.

The Global Catastrophic Management Act that was included in the recent NDAA is a great start to look seriously at catastrophic risk. However, Congress and the White House should ensure it’s the beginning of a larger, concentrated effort. Congress and the White House should also ensure that the findings of the DHS report on catastrophic risks are made public. I'd also like to see catastrophic and existential risk incorporated into existing risk assessment frameworks; put the topics on the agenda at the G7 and other international fora; and consider new international bodies to assess, manage and reduce global catastrophic risk.

Perhaps a "planetary defense council" to facilitate diplomacy, policy coordination, funding development and intelligence-sharing concerning catastrophic and existential risks.

What has surprised you most this year?

There’s nothing particularly surprising, but I think there have been some good developments. The move by the U.N. General Assembly on autonomous weapons discussion, moving at least somewhat out of the governmental experts process, I think is a good development.

The confirmation of Ukraine using the first autonomous weapon in combat last week, I think that was important in that you have someone going out and saying, “Hey, I recognize that there's some ethical and policy concerns here, but we're in a war and people are dying. So, we gotta use what we gotta use.”

 

A message from CTIA – The Wireless Association:

China is pushing countries to adopt their 5G spectrum vision and build a global market that favors their tech companies. To counter China’s ambitions, we need our own compelling vision for U.S. spectrum leadership over the next decade, and a clear commitment to make more 5G spectrum available. For our economic competitiveness, our national security, and our 5G leadership, America needs a bold new National Spectrum Strategy. Learn more.

 
china's in

The United Kingdom will invite China to join a newly created global AI research network, according to a report published last night by POLITICO Europe.

A U.K. official told reporters that China will be part of the group of countries that will support “bilateral, plurilateral and multilateral research collaboration … it will not make policy or regulatory recommendations, but [the European Union hopes] its outputs can help inform both international and domestic policy-making in this space,” according to a memo published by the EU.

China’s involvement is not uncontroversial, as U.K. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt defended his government’s decision to involve them in an upcoming AI summit, as the POLITICO Tech podcast reported last month. The research network will be separate from the “AI Safety Institute” U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak plans to pitch at that summit, and an anonymous U.K. official said the country is “keen to engage with China on scientific collaboration.” — Derek Robertson

 

A message from CTIA – The Wireless Association:

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the would-be bitcoin hitman

Now, I know this might sound controversial, but maybe don’t use Bitcoin to hire somebody to murder your girlfriend.

In the most recent edition of Matt Levine’s Money Stuff newsletter, he explains the fundamental difficulties still underlying many Bitcoin transactions, particularly ones that involve committing a felony. He describes the story of James Wan, a Georgia doctor who was caught by the FBI while attempting to pay for a hitman after haggling endlessly with a dark web administrator about failed payments and Bitcoin-related price volatility.

“I wonder how many murder-for-hire contracts had to be repriced when crypto prices collapsed last year,” Levine writes. “Not zero!”

As if that weren’t enough to discourage would-be Bitcoin-wielding scofflaws, he also cites the story of Jimmy Zhong, who was arrested after calling the police to report the theft of his own Bitcoin. Police eventually discovered Zhong in fact stole the crypto in question from the now-defunct Silk Road marketplace, and he was arrested. Lesson: If you’re an amateur criminal, don’t make it any harder on yourself by adding further layers of cryptography, financial speculation, and terrible UX. — Derek Robertson

 

JOIN 10/25 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF GRID RELIABILITY: The EPA’s proposed standards for coal and new natural gas fired power plants have implications for the future of the electric grid. These rules may lead to changes in the power generation mix—shifting to more renewable sources in favor of fossil-fuel plants. Join POLITICO on Oct. 25 for a deep-dive conversation on what it will take to ensure a reliable electric grid for the future. REGISTER NOW.

 
 
Tweet of the Day

Probably the worst light temperature I’ve ever seen in a food court, thanks to these awful overhead digital ads. What are we doing to ourselves.

THE FUTURE IN 5 LINKS

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A message from CTIA – The Wireless Association:

America’s spectrum policy is stuck in neutral. The FCC’s spectrum auction authority has not been renewed, there is no pipeline of new spectrum for 5G, and China is poised to dominate global spectrum discussions, pushing for 15X more 5G spectrum than the U.S. America cannot afford to fall behind and become a spectrum island. The Biden Administration’s forthcoming National Spectrum Strategy is a unique and important opportunity to recommit ourselves to a bold vision for global spectrum leadership, secure our 5G leadership today and long-term leadership of the industries and innovations of the future. For our economic competitiveness and our national security, we need a National Spectrum Strategy that is committed to allocating 1500 MHz of new mid-band spectrum for 5G, and that reaffirms the critical role that NTIA and the FCC play in leading the nation’s spectrum policy. Learn more.

 
 

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