Davos wants you to plan to have a plan on quantum technology. The World Economic Forum that sponsors the annual Switzerland confab released a “Quantum Economy Blueprint” today — its first major paper on how a global economy centered around quantum technology might develop, even as many skeptics say the technology isn’t yet ready for prime time. Its authors, a trio of researchers from the WEF, AI and quantum startup SandboxAQ, and IBM, lay out a set of recommendations and examples for how countries can find their fit in the global development of quantum computing, sensing, and communications technologies — especially as China invests billions into the technology largely in isolation from the West. If you’ve been reading DFD’s past coverage of quantum developments, you might be wondering: Isn’t it a bit early for this? That’s what the report’s authors are counting on, writing that seizing on an “early adopter advantage” will allow governments to get infrastructure in place to ensure all countries are able to benefit from the gradual replacement of zeroes and ones by superposition and entanglement. Notably, the report, with the full backing of the WEF, makes assumptions about quantum that are decidedly up for debate in the wider research community. Those include: “it will be possible to build a useful, fully programmable universal fault-tolerant quantum computer;” quantum computing “will make the computation of specific problems more efficient or precise,” and that “quantum utility,” the ability for existing quantum computers to solve problems beyond classical computing’s reach, has been demonstrated. (Some in the commercial sector even say the WEF isn’t bullish enough — Allison Schwartz, government relations lead for commercial quantum company D-Wave, told DFD in a statement that the report “narrowly focuses on a single approach that is far from market readiness” in a manner that “skews the timelines for adoption and near-term application development.”) With that in mind I pinged Sergio Gago Huerta, head of quantum at Moody's and someone who does not hesitate to call out quantum hype as the author of the Quantum Pirates Substack newsletter. Huerta was all in favor of the blueprint, saying that by focusing on governance and infrastructure it provides helpful pointers to pretty much anyone hoping to compete or even participate in the quantum economy. “Every country should have their own quantum program, either as part of a coalition or by themselves,” Huerta wrote in an email. He noted that while many countries tend to focus on quantum as a cyber threat — the ability of quantum computers to bust traditional cryptography is one of the most well-established findings in the field — the report provides welcome focus on other technologies like quantum sensing and metrology, something governments will need to provide enough “support, governance and training [for]... in order to stay relevant and keep a competitive advantage.” Celia Merzbacher, executive director of the Quantum Economic Development Consortium that aims to grow quantum in the U.S., was a consultant on the report. She praised its analysis of the “complex landscape” facing nations on quantum and said it would be useful to anyone working right now in the “quantum technology stack.” The report takes a granular dive into nations’ quantum “building blocks,” from national research funding to politics to worker training, and finds — not surprisingly — that the most successful innovation efforts come from deeply interconnected and collaborative ecosystems. One example they cite is the United Kingdom’s National Quantum Strategy: In that case, pumping a billion-plus British pounds into the U.K.’s research infrastructure led to a successful effort to develop commercial applications for quantum in fields like the automotive industry, telecom, and defense. At a smaller scale, that virtuous-cycle collaboration tends to cross national boundaries, like in the case of the Quantum Leap Africa program that saw five nations team up to gather top students from across the continent and educate them about quantum. The U.S.’ National Quantum Initiative, authorized by a $1.2 billion bill passed in 2018, has placed Washington at the center of this global conversation even as its re-authorization lingers in Congressional limbo. The report contains plenty of detail about the U.S.’ quantum push and its ripples throughout the global economy, as well as the importance of maintaining a quantum advantage to defense and national security. Where it’s decidedly more circumspect, however, is on exactly what those geopolitical threats are: State Department official Rick Switzer is quoted saying it’s “critical that the United States and our allies retain access to key components in the quantum supply chain, requiring policy-makers to account for the geopolitics surrounding this access.” By geopolitics, he means China and the repercussions for quantum in what the New York Times called America’s “silicon blockade” against Beijing. The WEF report notes that China has spent $15 billion on quantum, more than the U.S., U.K., France and Germany combined. The number of times China itself is referenced in the report? Exactly two, a far cry from the in-depth treatment other nations’ quantum strategies get. Anyone who tracks quantum development (or any other technology, for that matter) in the West knows that potential threat from Beijing is a huge political motivator for quantum policy, especially when it comes to cybersecurity. Davos’ plan might be a globally collaborative one, but as with so many other tech policy issues, there’s a large elephant in the room that’s central to its analysis while remaining oddly silent.
| 
