The future of work is ... a mess — Is Powell in trouble? — Dems' giant budget piggybank

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Thursday Jul 15,2021 12:03 pm
Delivered daily by 8 a.m., Morning Money examines the latest news in finance politics and policy.
Jul 15, 2021 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver

Editor’s Note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services' morning newsletter, which is delivered to our s each morning at 6 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day’s biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

Quick Fix

The future of work is here … and it’s a mess — I write at some length here this morning with our Eleanor Mueller on the scramble on Wall Street and across white collar America to figure out when and how employees should return to their offices and get to back to something roughly resembling normal.

It’s the lead of our new Recovery Lab project highlighting policy challenges arising from the Covid-19 pandemic and possible solutions (though in thise case no one really has the answer.)

From the piece: “Sarah, a young analyst at one of the biggest investment banks in the world, is back in her lower Manhattan office about three days a week now, mostly clocking the kind of long hours typically required of the junior Wall Street set.

“She’s got free breakfast in the morning, a comped gym membership and can expense a car ride home at night if she doesn’t feel like hopping on her bike and pedaling back to Chelsea, all new perks dangled by her bosses to lure employees back to headquarters in the late Covid era. But the tug of remote work remains. … And Sarah doesn’t want to revert to the way things were.

Sarah’s experience is playing out across the white-collar working world as the biggest, fastest and most head-spinning disruption in American working life in generations rambles toward some kind of return to normality. The trouble is that almost no one -- workers or bosses -- has any real idea what normal means now.

“It’s all over the place,” said Ed Egee, who handles workforce development for the National Retail Federation. Remote work is “definitely going to change the workplace. But I don’t think I know, and I don’t think [employers] know, exactly how yet.”

Powell in trouble?From Robert Kuttner in The American Prospect on Fed Chair Jerome Powell: “As a Republican, he partly bulletproofs Biden against the charge of being soft on inflation, and serves as an administration olive branch to Republicans in Congress. But Powell has been dismal on the Fed’s other job—financial regulation. My sources say the decision hasn’t been made yet, but Biden is likely to name a new Fed chair.”

Real talk — Kuttner has nailed some econ staffing stuff before so it would be unwise to dismiss his reporting, even if dumping Powell and spooking markets would seem an odd thing for Biden to do given how perma-dovish the central bank chair is these days (see below.) And Biden could allay fears on the left by just getting rid of Fed fin reg chief Randy Quarles and keeping Powell.

But there are clearly battle lines being drawn inside the administration and the Fed Chair slot could turn into an ugly fight. That would be rough on markets especially if it drags on into the fall. The White House would be wise to either telegraph that Powell is staying or make it clear sooner than later that he will be replaced.

GOOD THURSDAY MORNING — Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @ morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
Driving the Day

Powell is back on the Hill at 9:30 a.m. before the Senate Banking Committee but is unlikely to waver from his “transitory” views on inflation or otherwise make significant news …

President Biden at 1:45 p.m. will “deliver remarks to mark the day that tens of millions of families will get their first monthly Child Tax Credit relief payments thanks to the American Rescue Plan” … Biden will then host German Angela Merkel and conduct a joint presser with her at 4:15 p.m.

MERKEL PREP — Via our Ryan Heath in POLITICO Nightly: “Merkel arrives in Washington as the undisputed political queen of Europe. In the last decade of her 16 years as German chancellor she outpaced France, survived Brexit, acted as a liberal bulwark against an unpredictable American president, and sent a former protege — Ursula von der Leyen — to Brussels to run the EU executive.

“Merkel was also brilliant at crushing domestic rivals. So good in fact, there’s no one that can fill the void she will leave at the end of her term in September. But French President Emmanuel Macron is looking to seize Merkel’s European crown, despite low approval ratings at home, by promoting himself as the ultimate save-the-planet leader.”

POWELL STANDS FIRM — Our Victoria Guida: “Powell is facing growing pressure from both sides of the aisle in the face of stronger inflation, with Republicans warning that the trend could continue and Democrats calling on the central bank not to overreact.

“Powell warned lawmakers on Wednesday that inflation is likely to remain high for months before cooling down, in the wake of hotter-than-expected price increases in May and June, but he reassured them that the central bank was on top of it. He said the Fed wouldn’t hesitate to begin removing economic support if it looks like prices are set to spiral out of control but that the central bank still expects inflation to recede next year on its own”

DEMS' GIANT BUDGET PIGGY BANK — Our Caitlin Emma, Sarah Ferris and Anthony Adragna: “Senate Democrats' $3.5 trillion spending package will unleash a gusher of hundreds of billions of dollars for progressive priorities, from climate programs to an expansion of Medicare to promised green cards for some undocumented immigrants, according to new details released on Wednesday.”

BUT STILL A WAY TO GO — Our Marianne LeVine, Laura Barrón-López and Burgess Everett: “Biden returned to the Senate … to celebrate clinching a budget deal with Democrats, though it’s just the beginning of a long process that will test his prowess with his former colleagues. …

“Attendees said they … sensed Biden knows he has work to do in recruiting two key moderate senators to sign on to the deal while keeping the support of progressives that aspire to go much bigger.”

Markets

STOCKS END WOBBLY DAY MIXED — AP’s Damian J. Troise and Alex Veiga: “Wall Street capped a wobbly day of trading with mixed results Wednesday, as a rally in technology stocks was kept in check by a slide in banks and energy companies. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.1 percent gain after recovering from an early stumble and then losing much of its momentum by late afternoon.

NO MARKET BREADTH, NO PROBLEM AS FANNGS LIFT S&P HIGHER — Bloomberg’s Vildana Hajric and Katherine Greifeld: “Another day, another hotter-than-expected inflation reading -- and the stock market is sitting at record highs. It wasn’t supposed to go like this.

“Rising consumer prices were assumed to act as a drag on the value of future earnings, particularly for the duration-heavy technology sector. But look below the S&P 500 Index’s top line and a different picture emerges: Megacap tech stocks are once again dominating and are accounting for nearly all the gains.”

MARKETS STICK WITH ‘DON’T FIGHT THE FED’ MANTRA — Reuters’ Lewis Krauskopf: “Signs of inflation abound and the world’s biggest asset manager is warning higher prices may be here for a while, yet a sizable chunk of the market appears to be leaning on an age-old adage: don’t fight the Fed.

“Treasury yields slid and stocks moved higher with the S&P 500 hitting a record after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in remarks prepared for delivery at a congressional hearing on Wednesday, assured lawmakers that higher consumer prices would prove fleeting and the central bank was unlikely to unwind its easy-money policies sooner than expected.”

Fly Around

ECONOMY FURTHER STREGTHENED AT START OF SUMMER — Bryan Mena: “The U.S. economy’s recovery further strengthened going into the summer as consumers spent more on tourism, travel and other services that were restricted earlier in the pandemic, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.

“The Fed, in its latest Beige Book report that collects business anecdotes from around the country, said businesses also reported prices for services and goods increased at an above-average pace. It said supply-chain disruptions became more widespread for both labor and materials, and that busine

BOFA’S PROFIT MORE THAN DOUBLES, BUT REVENUE TAKES A HIT — WSJ’s Ben Eisen: “Bank of America Corp. said the economic rebound helped to more than double its profit, but low rates weighed on its revenue. The nation’s second-largest bank by assets posted earnings Wednesday of $9.22 billion in the second quarter, up from $3.53 billion a year earlier. The bank earned $1.03 a share, beating the 77 cents forecast by analysts polled by FactSet.”

MORE THAN 150 COMPANIES URGE CONGRESS TO PASS VOTING RIGHTS ACT — Reuters’ Jessica Dinapoli: “More than 150 companies including Apple Inc, Best Buy Co Inc and PepsiCo urged U.S. lawmakers to introduce and pass a voting reform act in a letter signed on Wednesday, as other efforts have stalled in Congress.”

AMERICANS’ DEBT SOARS TO $14.6T IN BORROWING BINGE — Bloomberg’s Jennifer Surane: “Americans are officially borrowing more than they ever have. Consumer debt soared to $14.64 trillion in the first three months of the year — even as credit card balances notched their second biggest decline on record”

 

TUNE IN TO DISPATCH+ ON APPLE PODCASTS : POLITICO Dispatch, our daily podcast that cuts through the news clutter and keeps you up to speed on the most important developments of the moment, is expanding. In collaboration with the new Apple Podcasts Subscription platform, Dispatch+ launches this week! This new podcast gives premium Dispatch+ s exclusive bonus weekly reporting and analysis from POLITICO's newsroom. Don't miss out, subscribe and listen to Dispatch+ on Apple Podcasts.

 
 
For Your Radar

MFA ADDS SENATE FINANCE AIDE — The hedge fund industry’s top lobbying group, the Managed Funds Association, has hired Jennifer Deci as a vice president of U.S. government affairs... Deci was most recently senior counsel to Senate Finance Committee ranking member Mike Crapo (R-Idaho)

NEW THIS AM — Per release: “Today, participants in the SPAC industry launched a new trade association—the “SPAC Association”—to represent stakeholders involved in the special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) industry.”

 

Follow us on Twitter

Mark McQuillian @mcqdc

Ben White @morningmoneyben

Aubree Eliza Weaver @aubreeeweaver

Victoria Guida @vtg2

Katy O'Donnell @katyodonnell_

Zachary Warmbrodt @Zachary

Kellie Mejdrich @kelmej

 

Follow us

Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Instagram Listen on Apple Podcast
 

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Please click here and follow the steps to .

More emails from POLITICO's Morning Money