Powell on deck at Jackson hole with his future on the line — POLITICO in new hands — The case for dumping Powell

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Friday Aug 27,2021 12:03 pm
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POLITICO Morning Money

By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver

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Quick Fix

Powell’s last big test — It’s finally Jackson Hole time for Fed Chair Jerome Powell this morning at 10:00 a.m. EST. Not likely to be massive policy shifts but it’s still a critical moment as the White House considers whether or not to re-nominate Powell for a second term.

Our Victoria Guida with a little MM help: “A pivotal speech by … Powell … could be his last big test before President Joe Biden decides whether to reappoint him to the government’s most powerful economic post. Powell’s main task: Don’t freak out the markets.

“It may not be easy. The Fed has signaled it may begin pulling back its extraordinary support for the economy later this year, and the central bank chief is expected to chart a course at the annual Jackson Hole conference …

“Though Powell is unlikely to announce a firm decision, any hint of an abrupt exit could spook investors and rankle the White House, which wants to avoid market disruptions. All major stock indexes in the U.S. fell on Thursday as investors awaited the Fed chief's speech.”

Tough spot for the Fed chief – Pantheon’s Ian Shepherdson: “Timing is—almost—everything in policymaking, and the timing of the Jackson Hole symposium this year is terrible. The labor market, which is the key to the question of whether the reopening spike in inflation will become embedded into a more sustained surge, is stuck in no-man's land until September, at least.

“No one knows what will happen when schools and childcare fully reopen … and the $300 weekly federal unemployment benefit ends, on September 6. Until the consequences of these events is clear, the Fed's leadership is understandably reluctant to listen to siren voices in markets and the commentariat, calling for a commitment the timing and pace of tapering.”

The case for dumping Powell — American Prospect’s Robert Kuttner emails: “The most important and decisive aspect of this decision is the domino effect. If Biden dumps Powell, he gets four, even five Fed appointees, who will be diverse and pro-regulation, and consistent with his other finreg and pro-competition appointees across the govt. If he keeps Powell, it stays 4-3 conservative and pro-Wall Street. My sources say this will be key in the decision. Here's what I wrote yesterday.”

GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Pretty overwhelming amount of news last 48 hours including POLITICO sold! (More on which below. But nothing will change.) Get some rest this weekend. We will be back in a week.

Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

 

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Driving the Day

Personal income and spending at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.1 percent and fall 0.1 percent, respectively. The core PCE deflator expected to rise 0.3 percent … Powell speaks at 10:00 a.m. EST at Jackson Hole with markets hanging on every word … Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 a.m. expected to plunge to 71.0 from 81.1 … President Biden meets Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett at the White House

BRAINARD FOR VICE CHAIR FOR SUPERVISIONS — Bloomberg’s Saleha Mohsin and Jennifer Jacobs with of the several possible outcomes of the Powell saga: “Biden’s advisers are considering recommending Jerome Powell for a second term as Federal Reserve chair paired with Lael Brainard as the central bank’s chief regulator … Biden has not yet weighed in on Fed personnel decisions and his decision is not expected until fall”

SIDEBAR — Powell staying as chair and someone else taking the Randy Quarles spot has long been a possibility. But progressives don’t really like it. And would Brainard really want anything but chair?

MORE ON POWELL — Via Better Market’s on “Should Fed Chair Jay Powell Be Reappointed” And a one-page summary here.

SCOTUS BLOCKS EVICTION BAN — Our Katy O'Donnell and Josh Gerstein: “The Supreme Court blocked the Biden administration’s new eviction ban in a ruling that left millions of Americans at risk of losing their homes during the pandemic.

“The decision to suspend the moratorium more than five weeks before its Oct. 3 expiration was a win for landlords and property owners, who have spent nearly a year in court fighting eviction bans imposed by the Trump and Biden administrations.”

POLITICO IN NEW HANDS — WP’s Jeremy Barr: “Politico, a media company based in Arlington, Va., that redefined American politics and policy coverage for the digital age, has been sold to German conglomerate Axel Springer, in the latest example of corporate consolidation in a rapidly changing business climate for journalism. …

“As part of the deal, the German company will take full control of the Politico Europe partnership launched in 2014, as well as the technology news site Protocol, which began last year. … The deal marks the end of what Politico owner Robert L. Allbritton called ‘the ride of a lifetime,’ although he will remain publisher of Politico and Protocol.”

Markets

WALL STREET CLOSES LOWER — Reuters’ Stephen Culp: “Wall Street lost ground on Thursday, ending a streak of all-time closing highs on concerns over developments in Afghanistan, while fears of a potential shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy prompted a broad but shallow sell-off the day before the Jackson Hole Symposium. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended the session modestly lower, with the S&P and the Nasdaq notching their first down day in six.”

WAVE OF EXPIRING TREASURY OPTIONS ADDS RISK TO JACKSON HOLE — Bloomberg’s Edward Bolingbroke: “A flood of Treasury options set to expire Friday may dictate the bond market’s reaction to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s long-awaited speech on the economic outlook. More than 2 million options in the September 10-year contract, which is 63 percent of total options open interest in Treasuries, expire by the end of trading Friday, raising the prospect for volatility in the wake of Powell’s remarks …

“For months, Treasury option traders have been amassing hedges against swings in 10-year yields, in part with this week’s Jackson Hole symposium in mind as a potential watershed moment for Fed policy. Yields briefly swung higher Thursday after some of the central bank’s leading hawks urged policy makers to move quickly to slow bond buying. Powell has struck a more patient tone.”

Fly Around

JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE, BUT HOLD NEAR PANDEMIC LOW — WSJ’s Sarah Chaney Cambon: “The number of workers applying for and receiving unemployment benefits has reached pandemic lows over the past month, a sign the job-market recovery remains on sound footing despite uncertainty surrounding the Delta variant of Covid-19.

“Unemployment claims edged up to 353,000 last week from a revised 349,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility in the weekly figures, fell to 366,500 last week, a new pandemic low.”

POWELL’S DILEMMA: HIGH INFLATION AND A SURGING VIRUS — AP’s Christopher Rugaber: “Not long ago, anticipation was high that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might begin to sketch out a plan this week for the Fed to start pulling back on its support for an economy that has been steadily strengthening. That was before COVID-19 cases began accelerating across the country.

“Now, the decision of how and when the Fed should begin dialing back its help for the economy has become a more complicated one. Yet in outlining his view of the economy and the threats it faces in a high-profile speech Friday, Powell may provide important clues to the timing of changes in the Fed’s ultra-low-interest rate policies.”

What are investors hoping to hear from Powell? — Reuters: “Investors will be scouring remarks on Friday by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for clues on tapering the central bank's asset purchases, as well as how the economy is faring amid the spread of the Covid-19 Delta variant.

"While expectations for market-moving revelations are low for the Fed's one-day 2021 Economic Policy Symposium, which will be held online instead of in-person in Jackson Hole, Wyoming due to virus concerns, all eyes will be on Powell who speaks at 10 a.m. EDT.”

HOW SHOULD THE FED DEAL WITH CLIMATE CHANGE? — NYT’s Neil Irwin: “The climate crisis is at high risk of becoming an economic crisis. That is an increasingly widespread view among leading economic thinkers — that a range of economic and financial problems could result from a warming planet and humanity’s efforts to deal with it.

“But if you believe that to be true, what should the United States’ economist-in-chief do about it? That question has taken new urgency as President Biden weighs whether to reappoint Jerome Powell to another term leading the Federal Reserve or choose someone else.”

FED OFFICIALS SAY TIME FOR TAPERING IS GETTING CLOSER — WSJ’s Michael S. Derby: “Three Federal Reserve officials said in separate television interviews Thursday that the time to cut back on central-bank bond-buying stimulus is looming.

“With inflation running at unexpectedly high levels and uncertainty about whether it will moderate next year, ‘we want to get going on taper, get the taper finished by the end of the first quarter next year,’ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said on CNBC. Mr. Bullard was giving his view on when the Fed should wrap up its bond-buying stimulus.”

CORPORATE PROFITS SOAR IN SECOND QUARTER — Reuters' Lucia Mutikani: “U.S. corporate profits surged to a fresh record high in the second quarter, boosted by robust demand and higher prices, suggesting that an anticipated slowdown in economic growth this quarter because of soaring COVID-19 cases could be temporary.”

TWO OF BOFA’S POST-CRISIS LEADERS TO RETIRE — NYT’s Lananh Nguyen: “Two towering figures who helped steer Bank of America out of the financial crisis a decade ago will retire at the end of the year, the bank said Thursday. The departures of Anne Finucane, the bank’s vice chair and one of Wall Street’s most powerful women, and Thomas K. Montag, the bank’s hard-charging chief operating officer, open the door for new leadership atop the nation’s second-biggest bank.”

 

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