Biden picks top bank cop

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Thursday Sep 23,2021 12:03 pm
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POLITICO Morning Money

By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver

Presented by Sallie Mae®

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Quick Fix

Biden picks top bank cop — Via our Victoria Guida: “President Joe Biden is poised to nominate Cornell Law School Professor Saule Omarova to a top job overseeing the nation’s banks, according to a person familiar with the matter, handing a win to advocates for stricter financial rules.

“As comptroller of the currency, Omarova would be responsible for policing the activities of the U.S.'s largest banks as the head of a key financial regulator. She would also set rules affecting the operations of upstart financial technology companies and cryptocurrency firms. …

Controversial views — “Omarova has written in favor of restructuring the Federal Reserve and recommended that it provide bank accounts for consumers, which she has argued would make the financial system ‘less complex, more stable and more efficient in serving the long-term needs of the American people.’ That view is likely to make her nomination controversial, particularly for Senate Republicans.

React: Bullish for Powell? — Cowen’s Jaret Seiberg: “This should improve prospects for Jerome Powell to get a second term as Fed chair and for Lael Brainard to be vice chair for supervision.

“Omarova is negative on crypto, will push social justice and be tougher on banks, especially M&A … We view the Federal Reserve as far more important for the mega and regional banks than the Comptroller of the Currency. This is because many of the most significant regulatory policies are under the Fed's purview such as the CCAR stress test, the G-SIB surcharge and the supplemental leverage ratio.”

GOOD THURSDAY MORNING — Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

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Driving the Day

President Biden at noon receives his weekly economic briefing … Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. expected to dip to 320K from 332K … Index of Leading Indicators at 10:00 a.m. expected to rise 0.5 percent

POWELL PLEDGES TOUGHER ETHICS AT THE FED — Also via Victoria: “Powell on … pledged that the central bank will strengthen its ethics rules after an outcry surrounding financial trades during the pandemic by two top policymakers. The trades by Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren have sparked calls by some progressive groups for their resignation and a push by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) to ban all trading on individual stocks by Fed officials.

“Financial disclosures showed that the two Fed presidents had bought and sold stocks and real-estate-linked assets in 2020 as the central bank was engaged in an extensive rescue of financial markets. Powell, speaking at a press conference after a Fed policy meeting, said he wasn’t previously aware of the trades. But he said it’s clear changes are necessary.”

And on policy, Powell pledges pullback (though not right away) … “The Federal Reserve … signaled it is on track to begin withdrawing some of its extraordinary support for the U.S. economy later this year, even though officials are more pessimistic about the outlook for growth and job creation as the resurgent coronavirus weighs on the country.

“Fully half of the Fed's 18 policymakers even penciled in the possibility of an interest rate hike next year, indicating their belief that the economy might be strong enough by then for the central bank to start ending its massive support more aggressively. They left interest rates unchanged at their two-day meeting this week.”

DEMS REMAIN IN (AT LEAST PARTIAL) DISSARAY — Our Sarah Ferris, Heather Caygle, Marianne LeVine, and Laura Barrón-López: “Democrats returned from a White House sitdown Wednesday vowing to work together to break the logjam threatening their entire domestic agenda — even as deep cracks remain in their party. …

“Biden convened the high-stakes summit with key progressives and moderates Wednesday in a bid to unify his fractious party — with its threadbare majority in Congress — behind one of the most ambitious presidential agendas in history. Few Democrats expected Wednesday’s series of talks to result in a formal detente between the clashing factions, which are caught in an ugly tug-of-war between Biden's two main priorities: a $3.5 trillion partisan social spending plan and a separate, narrower infrastructure bill.”

AND STILL NOT CLEAR ON DEBT LIMIT PLANS — Our Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine: “Democrats want to bludgeon the GOP over its debt ceiling intransigence as much as they can — though not necessarily hard enough to shut the government down next week.

“Publicly, Senate Democrats' preferred option is to continue pressuring Republicans to buckle and accept their proposal linking government funding and a debt ceiling increase. But failing that, they say they need to ensure they avoid a momentum-draining shutdown next week amid the pandemic and internal dissent over acting on … Biden’s domestic agenda."

BROWN, WARREN PROBE TOP SPACS, CITING INVESTOR RISKS — Our Kellie Mejdrich: “Senate Democrats … pressed the backers of several prominent SPACs for details of their operations, in the latest sign of growing political pressure on the so-called black check firms.

“Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), along with Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), warned the special purpose acquisition companies that they were concerned about ‘misaligned incentives’ between SPAC creators and early investors on the one hand and retail investors on the other. SPACs, which saw a boom in popularity last year, are shell companies used to take private firms public in an alternative to traditional IPOs.”

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down and who really has the president's ear in West Wing Playbook, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
Markets

STOCKS HOLD THEIR GAINS — AP’s Damian J. Troise, Alex Veiga and Stan Choe: “Stocks held on to their gains on Wall Street Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled it may begin easing its extraordinary support measures for the economy later this year.

“The central bank said it may start raising its benchmark interest rate sometime next year, earlier than it envisioned three months ago. The S&P 500 rose 1 percent. Tech companies helped lead the gains, though Facebook fell 4 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq composite also rose about 1 percent.”

INVESTORS WATCH COMPANIES’ RECORD PROFIT MARGINS AS COSTS RISE FURTHER — Reuters’ Caroline Valetkevitch: “U.S. companies have retained strong profit margins through the pandemic because they have cut costs and passed along high prices to customers. The question is: How long can this go on?

“With inflation still strong, the ability for companies to keep margins at record levels is being closely watched by some investors and strategists as third-quarter earnings reports from S&P 500 companies are set to arrive next month. Much-stronger-than-expected earnings have been a key support for stocks this year even as the coronavirus pandemic has dragged on. The S&P 500 index is up about 17 percent for the year so far.”

 

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Fly Around

GENSLER: WALL STREET PAY CLAWBACKS TO GET FRESH SEC REVIEW — Bloomberg’s Akayla Gardner and Benjamin Bain: “U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler said he is keen to finish a long-stalled requirement to clamp down on Wall Street bonuses when companies report incorrect financial information.

“Gensler said he’s asked SEC staff to provide recommendations on a rule for clawing back executive pay and other parts of never-finished regulations that were mandatory under the Dodd-Frank Act. Specifically, Gensler said he wants to make sure that executives return any funds they are overpaid when a company publishes incorrect information in its financial statements.”

FED’S INTENTIONS ON RATES REMAIN MUDDLED — WSJ’s Justin Lahart: “Federal Reserve policy makers have been at pains to convince investors that winding down the central bank’s asset purchases won’t necessarily lead to rate increases. But they made something of a muddle of that message on Wednesday.

“In the statement released following its two-day meeting, the Fed’s policy-setting committee said that a reduction in the central bank’s monthly asset purchases ‘may soon be warranted.’ Barring a serious setback — a worse-than-expected hit to the job market from the Delta variant, say, or the China Evergrande mess badly damaging global financial markets — that all but tees up a decision to begin tapering at the next Fed meeting in November. By sometime in the middle of next year, those purchases would fall to zero.”

The Fed also signaled it may soon slow bond purchases — NYT’s Jeanna Smialek: “Federal Reserve officials indicated on Wednesday that they expect to soon slow the asset purchases they have been using to support the economy and predicted they may raise interest rates next year, sending a clear signal that policymakers are preparing to pivot away from full-blast monetary help as the business environment snaps back from the pandemic shock.

“’If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted,’ the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee said in its September statement. The new phrasing eliminated wording that had promised to assess progress over ‘coming meetings,’ suggesting that a formal announcement of the slowdown could come as early as the central bank’s next gathering in November.”

POWELL: FED TO RELEASE PAPER ON CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY — Reuters’ Jonnelle Marte: “The Federal Reserve will release research ‘soon’ examining the costs and benefits of a central bank digital currency, or CBDC, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday.

“‘We're working proactively to evaluate whether to issue a CBDC and, if so, in what form,’ Powell said in a news conference following the conclusion of the U.S. central bank's latest two-day policy meeting. The ultimate test that will apply when assessing a CBDC, he told reporters, is if there are ‘clear and tangible benefits that outweigh any costs and risks.’”

He also said the Fed can’t protect markets in event of a default — Bloomberg’s Christopher Condon: “Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank doesn’t possess the ability to shield financial markets or the U.S. economy from severe damage should Congress fail to lift the nation’s debt limit in coming weeks and precipitate a default on government obligations.

“‘It’s just very important that the debt ceiling be raised in a timely fashion so that the United States can pay its bills when and as they come due,’ Powell said Wednesday in a virtual press conference following a meeting of the Fed’s interest-rate setting panel.”

WELLS FARGO ASSET CAP TO STAY IN PLACE UNTIL PROBLEMS FIXED — Reuters’ Pete Schroeder: “Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the Fed is closely monitoring efforts by Wells Fargo & Co to fix its ‘widespread and pervasive’ problems, and that it would take appropriate actions if the bank failed to do so.

"In 2018, the Federal Reserve ordered Wells Fargo to keep its assets below $1.95 trillion until it had improved its governance and risk controls following sales practice scandals. That constrains Wells Fargo's ability to make new loans.”

 

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