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Presented by America’s Life Insurers: Delivered daily by 8 a.m., Morning Money examines the latest news in finance politics and policy. | | | | | |  | | By Ben White | | | PROGRAMMING NOTE: Morning Money will not publish on Monday, Oct. 11. We'll be back on our normal schedule on Tuesday, Oct. 12. Editor’s Note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services morning newsletter, which is delivered to our s each morning at 5:15 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day’s biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. | | | Welcome to jobs day — With a (temporary) debt limit deal in hand, economic attention turns to Friday’s September jobs report with expectations for a gain of 500K, unemployment down to 5.1% from 5.2% and hourly earnings up 0.4% as inflation pressures continue to show up. Moody’s Mark Zandi emails : “Employment increased by close to 500,000 in September. This is up from the 235,000 job gain in August, but below the closer to 600,000 average monthly job gain since the beginning of the year. One wildcard is the impact of Hurricane Ida on jobs, although the storm occurred before the BLS survey week. “The Delta wave of the pandemic damaged the recovery in the job market, resulting in less travel and weighing on restaurants and movie theaters. Already scrambled global supply chains were jumbled even more by Delta, causing shortages of chips and other components and material … Fortunately, the worst of the economic hit from Delta is at hand as infections and hospitalizations are receding.” Via Goldman Sachs : “We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k. Labor demand remains very strong, and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal benefits early. “We are assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. We also believe the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally” Don’t read too much into it — Pantheon’s Ian Shepherdson: “[T]oday's payroll report will have nothing definitive to say about the big picture over the next few months. The report captures labor market activity in the earliest stages of the downturn in Covid Delta cases, and the survey was conducted only a week after the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits and other Covid-driven programs. “The data, in short, will reflect a labor market in flux, and will offer few clues as to how the key variables will perform over the next few months. That, however, won't stop markets and the commentariat from obsessing over it.” GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Happy weekend everyone! Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. | | A message from America’s Life Insurers: Private insurers and employers already deliver paid family and medical leave benefits to 62 million Americans. So we know what it’s going to take to expand that coverage quickly and cost-effectively. By working together, private insurers and the government can ensure that no worker suffers economic loss when taking time off to care for themselves or their family. Paid leave for all takes all of us. Let’s do it together. | | | | | | DEBT LIMIT DEAL STRUCK — Our Burgess Everett, Caitlin Emma, and Nicholas Wu: “The Senate advanced a short-term debt ceiling fix … bringing Congress a huge step closer to staving off an economic debacle until December. The temporary patch overcame a Senate GOP filibuster, 61-38, setting the stage for a low-drama final passage vote that's expected to fall on Democrats alone, with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker. “The chamber moved forward on the two-month debt limit patch only after hours of furious GOP whipping to ensure at least 10 Senate Republicans would allow the bill to advance, giving Democrats the ability to clear the measure with a majority threshold.” DRAMA AT THE IMF — Our Victoria Guida: “The International Monetary Fund’s executive board will huddle Friday to consider whether Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva should keep her job, a potential upheaval at the global body that comes just days before its annual meetings begin in Washington, according to a person familiar with the discussions. “Georgieva has been linked to a scandal involving China and an annual report that ranked countries as investment destinations, dating to her time as CEO of the World Bank. Pressure has been growing on the embattled IMF head since last month, when an independent report from a law firm found that staff at the World Bank was pressured by senior management to alter key data to improve the rankings of China and other countries.” | | | | THE MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE 2021 IS HERE: POLITICO is excited to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider” newsletter featuring exclusive coverage and insights from one of the largest and most influential gatherings of experts reinventing finance, health, technology, philanthropy, industry and media. Don’t miss a thing from the 24th annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles, from Oct. 17 to 20. Can't make it? We've got you covered. Planning to attend? Enhance your #MIGlobal experience and subscribe today. | | | | | | | | WALL STREET CELEBRATES DEBT LIMIT DEAL — WSJ’s Caitlin Ostroff and
Michael Wursthorn: “Major U.S. stock indexes rose Thursday after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said lawmakers had reached a deal on a short-term debt-limit extension, potentially puttiing off a government default standoff for a couple of months.” CHINA FADES UNDER EVERGRANDE PERSSURE — Reuters Andrew Galbraith and Vidya Ranganathan: “Bonds and shares issued by Chinese developers slumped on Friday as onshore markets returned from a week-long holiday with few clues as to how regulators propose to contain the contagion from cash-strapped China Evergrande Group's debt problems.” | | | |   | | | | | | TESLA IS SHIPPING OFF TO AUSTIN — Bloomberg’s Dana Hull and Gabrielle Coppola: “Tesla Inc. is moving its corporate headquarters to Austin, Texas, where a new factory for the Model Y and forthcoming Cybertruck is nearing completion, relocating from California after making the Golden State its home for 18 years. “Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk announced the move at the Austin plant Thursday during the electric-vehicle maker’s shareholder meeting. Tesla, which was founded in 2003, was first based in San Carlos, California. It announced a move to Palo Alto, the leafy Silicon Valley suburb that’s home to Stanford University and several venture capital firms, in 2009, the year before its IPO. But the company has grown from scrappy startup to the world’s most valuable automaker, and Texas -- centrally located between the two coasts -- has become its center of gravity in the U.S.” COLLEGE STUDENTS FIND A JOBS BOOM — NYT’s Nelson D. Schwartz and Coral Murphy Marcos: “For many college students, the pandemic’s arrival last year did more than disrupt their studies, threaten their health and shut down campus life. It also closed off the usual paths that lead from the classroom to jobs after graduation. “On-campus recruiting visits were abandoned, and the coronavirus-induced recession made companies pull back from hiring. But this year, seniors and recent graduates are in great demand as white-collar employers staff up, with some job-seekers receiving multiple offers. University placement office directors and corporate human resources executives report that hiring is running well above last year’s levels, and in some cases surpasses prepandemic activity in 2019.” ICI NAMES NEW YORK LIFE EXECUTIVE AS CHAIR — The Investment Company Institute on Thursday announced Yie-Hsin Hung, CEO of New York Life Investment Management, was elected to serve as chair of the institute’s board of governors. ICI said in a press release that she is the first woman and person of color to hold the position. | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | A message from America’s Life Insurers: Americans must be protected from economic loss when taking time off of work to care for themselves or a loved one. But to bring paid leave to all workers, we all need to work together.
Currently private insurers work with employers to deliver paid family and medical leave benefits to 62 million Americans. A public-private partnership is the quickest, most cost-effective way to extend that security to all workers.
A partnership can build off of existing private systems to create a new public program. Insurers have the tools and experience to cover more workers and families through employer-based plans. And government can set guidelines, provide employer incentives, and support workers without access to paid leave through their jobs. ACLI is committed to working with lawmakers to develop solutions to provide more workers with paid family and medical leave. Paid leave for all takes all of us. Let’s get there together. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
