Powell stares into future of unknowns

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Thursday Nov 04,2021 12:02 pm
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By Kate Davidson and Aubree Eliza Weaver

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Quick Fix

The Federal Reserve has begun to taper its asset purchases, and where do we go from here? Your guess is (almost) as good as Jay Powell’s.

That was the message from the Fed chair at Wednesday’s post-meeting press conference, where he emphasized all of the unknowns for the outlook and Fed policy path — from how soon price pressures will ease, to how quickly workers may come back to the labor market as the Delta variant fades, to whether officials may need to adjust the pace of tapering to when the Fed may raise interest rates.

From our Victoria Guida:

“The long-awaited move signals both optimism about the pace of job growth and wariness about price surges that have pushed inflation up to its highest level in decades. The central bank has been buying $120 billion a month in U.S. government debt and mortgage-backed securities, a process designed to supercharge its efforts to keep borrowing costs low for households and businesses.”

A time to be humble: Powell, as he has before, emphasized humility in assessing where the economy might end up as we move further beyond the worst of the pandemic.

By many measures, the labor market is very tight, he said, but “the issue is, how persistent is that?” He’s open to the idea that more workers may come back, but also acknowledged that officials have been wrong, for example, about the extent to which expiring jobless benefits and the resumption of in-person school would draw more people into the workforce. (Tomorrow’s jobs report will give us more insight into what happened in October.)

“The level of inflation we have right now is not at all consistent with price stability,” Powell said. But he also pointed out that those price pressures are driven by supply bottlenecks, not very tight labor markets, and are likely to fade next year. And officials aren’t seeing troubling wage increases, he added.

Room to pivot: If that changes, the Fed could speed up or slow down the pace of asset purchases if necessary, but Powell declined to elaborate on what conditions might warrant a change. It’s possible the Fed could reach its maximum employment mandate next year, but asked about rate increases, he said, “We think we can be patient.”

“What it really boils down to is something that’s common sense, and that is risk management,” he said. “We have to be aware of the risks, particularly now the risk of significantly higher inflation. … We have to be in a position to address that risk should it create a threat of more persistent longer-term inflation, and that’s what we think our policy is doing now. It’s putting us in a position to be able to address the range of plausible outcomes.”

In short, Powell sounded like a chair keeping all options open — for him, or another Fed chief — heading into next year.

IT’S THURSDAY — Only one more day until the Labor Department releases the October employment report. How many new jobs did employers add last month? We want your best #NFPGuesses before tomorrow — and tips of course: kdavidson@politico.com, aweaver@politico.com, or hit us up on Twitter @katedavidson.

ALSO! Our Ben White emails: "Hey, just a quick note from your former MM host. I'm back in the saddle after a brief health-related break. Thanks for all the kind wishes! I'll pop up in MM on occasion. But you are already in great hands with Kate! Look for more longer form stuff from me on Wall Street, Washington and the economy as well as other new projects. And keep hitting me up on bwhite@politico.com and following me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Although perhaps I'll have to change that handle! Open to ideas. — Ben"

 

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Driving the Day

Data on weekly jobless claims, trade and third-quarter productivity released at 8:30 a.m. … SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce speaks on the regulatory outlook at Bloomberg’s Financial Innovation Summit at 9:35 a.m. … House Financial Services subcommittee holds a hearing on exploitation of natural resources to finance illicit activity at 10 a.m. … SEC Chair Gary Gensler speaks at Securities Docket’s virtual Securities Enforcement Forum at 1 p.m.

PARSING POWELL’S MESSAGE — Here’s more from Victoria on the key moments from Powell’s press conference yesterday, and more importantly, what they mean.

CBA’S RICHARD HUNT STEPPING DOWN — From your MM host, who reported it first: “The longtime head of one of Washington’s biggest bank lobbying groups is stepping down. Richard Hunt, who has led the Consumer Bankers Association since June 2009, told the group’s board of directors Wednesday morning that he plans to leave the organization, which represents 69 big retail banks, next summer after helping with the search for a successor.”

OCC CHIEF PLOTS TOUGHER CRYPTO, FINTECH OVERSIGHT — From Victoria again: “Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu said Wednesday that his agency has completed a review of key policies around financial technology and cryptocurrencies and concluded that some upstart firms need to be more stringently regulated.

“Hsu suggested in a speech to the American Fintech Council that he’d like to subject fintechs and cryptocurrency firms that provide banking services to the same regulatory standards as traditional lenders. Some of those companies have already applied for charters at the OCC, and he said he would be giving them feedback ‘in the coming weeks.’”

SEC OVERHAULS GUIDELINES FOR SHAREHOLDER PROPOSALS — From our Kellie Mejdrich: “The SEC on Wednesday raised the bar for public companies to exclude investor proposals from shareholder ballots in cases involving significant social policy issues, triggering objections from the business lobby and the agency's Republican commissioners.”

LAWMAKERS URGE BROADER SEC APPROVAL OF BITCOIN ETFs: Reps. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) and Darren Soto (D-Fla.) sent a letter to Gensler on Wednesday urging him to approve an exchange-traded fund based on the spot price of Bitcoin because the SEC already OK’d a product based on futures contracts in October.

FINANCIAL FIRMS MAKE BIG CLIMATE PROMISES AT COP26 — From our colleagues Zack Colman and Lorraine Woellert: “Political leaders are showering financial titans with praise at global climate talks. But their show of pageantry and back-patting is masking a deeper concern: that the banking industry’s pledges to help fight global warming are vague and unenforceable.”

TREASURY NOMINEES CONFIRMED The Senate voted 78-21 Wednesday to confirm Treasury economist Ben Harris, a Joe Biden campaign adviser and Biden’s chief economist when he was vice president, as assistant Treasury secretary for economic policy. Jonathan Davidson, Treasury’s chief lobbyist, was also confirmed Tuesday night in a 88-10 vote to be deputy undersecretary for legislative affairs.

HOUSE DEMOCRATS REVEAL REVISED SALT CAP PLAN — From our Brian Faler: “The proposal comes after a previous plan to suspend the cap for five years was sharply criticized by progressives who called it a giveaway to the rich. But the House’s revamped proposal was quickly panned too by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) who said it still offered too much to high earners.”

Former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew weighs in: Speaking at an event on tax enforcement Wednesday hosted by the Center for American Progress, Lew called the possibility of a full SALT cap repeal “an outrage.”

“It would have the effect of giving multimillionaires hundreds of thousands of dollars of tax cuts in a bill that’s really supposed to be aimed at restoring equity,” he said. “There are other ways to provide relief to families who earn around or in the neighborhood of $400,000 a year who pay a lot of real estate taxes and income taxes. I hope that as they resolve that they find a way to do it that targets relief where it’s really needed and that they don’t create something that I think would be quite embarrassing if it were to happen.” (h/t CAP’s Seth Hanlon)

At the same CAP event: Natasha Sarin, Treasury’s deputy assistant secretary for economic policy, said she hoped a dropped requirement for banks to report account information to the IRS can be restored to the administration’s social policy spending bill, Reuters’ David Lawder reported.

BEHOLD, THE WEST COAST DEFICIT HAWK — Snap Inc. CEO Evan Spiegel was the keynote speaker at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s Annual Budget Ball Reception on Tuesday night on the roof of 101 Constitution.

Spiegel told the crowd at the start of his Q&A with CRFB president Maya MacGuineas that it was good to be back in Washington because his parents had met on a blind date at the Old Ebbitt Grill "so I'm kind of a product of D.C." He said he learned from MacGuineas that for every six dollars America invests in seniors, it invests only a dollar in young people. "One of the things that cuts across all policies is, our policies investing in children have very, very high return and of course our policies that invest in seniors are less so, not that we shouldn't do it." (h/t Daniel Lippmann)

SPOTTED: Leon Panetta, Mitch Daniels, Miranda Kerr, Sens. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), Tom Carper (D-Del.), Angus King (I-Maine), Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Mark Warner (D-Va.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Reps. Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), Eric Cantor, Michael Steele and Steve Rattner.

 

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

 
 
Fly Around

TIGHTENING: IT’S NOT JUST THE FED NYT’s Jeanna Smialek and Eshe Nelson: “Tangled supply chains, rising costs for raw goods and soaring consumer demand have combined to push prices rapidly higher in many wealthy countries, prodding central banks around the world to start dialing back some of the extraordinary economic support measures they put in place during the pandemic.”

TREASURY CURVE STEEPENS — Bloomberg’s Liz McCormick: “Treasury yields rose and the curve steepened after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stressed that interest-rate hikes are not imminent as he announced plans to start reducing asset purchases.”

WHAT POWELL DIDN’T DO? LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR HIGHER RATES — NYT’s Neil Irwin: “The real news out of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday was not in what it did, but in what Chair Jerome Powell didn’t do. The thing that the Fed’s policy committee did — announce that the central bank would gradually wind down its economy-stimulating program of buying bonds — was highly telegraphed and comfortably in line with investors’ expectations.

“The thing that Mr. Powell didn’t do was give any hint that persistently high inflation in recent months was leading him to rethink his patient approach to raising the Fed’s interest rate target.”

 

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