It’s Jobs Day today, but the most important economic news of the week might have come yesterday, when the administration released two new rules requiring vaccination or testing requirements for workers at companies with more than 100 employees and at certain health care facilities. Together, the rules would apply to 84 million U.S. workers, the White House said. From our Rebecca Rainey: “While employers were given a brief reprieve from immediately implementing the test piece of the rule, the administration clarified that businesses must be in compliance on Dec. 5 with all other requirements, such as providing paid time off for employees to get vaccinated and requiring unvaccinated workers to wear a mask in the workplace. “Under the rules, workers at private businesses with more than 100 employees will have the option to wear a mask at work and submit to weekly Covid-19 testing in lieu of getting vaccinated. Health care workers and government contractors do not have the testing option.” Business groups and conservatives have blasted the rules, which they warn will exacerbate labor shortages by forcing small businesses to fire workers, potentially undermining the economic recovery. — Economists take a different view: A September survey by the University of Chicago Booth School’s Initiative on Global Markets, which polls some of the country’s leading academic economists, found they were unanimous in their agreement that “mandating staff vaccinations and/or regular testing at big employers would promote a faster and stronger economic recovery.” Of the 42 participants who responded to the survey, weighted by their confidence in their answers, 74 percent said they strongly agreed, 26 percent agreed, and not one of the respondents disagreed. The risk of such mandates is that they prompt some employees to quit rather than submit to vaccination or testing, which could hold back growth, Stanford University economist Darrell Duffie said in survey comments. On the plus side, vaccination mandates could lead to a healthier workforce overall, reduced contagion and lower health costs — factors that likely outweigh the potential downsides. “Economic recovery requires solving the public health problem,” Yale economist Larry Samuelson said. “Vaccines are our most powerful tool in bringing the virus under control.” —Seeing beyond Delta: That sentiment has been echoed repeatedly by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who said this week that officials won’t be able to clearly assess the economic outlook, and the potential for more workers to return to the labor force, until the pandemic is further behind us. The Delta variant kept many workers out of the labor market in recent months, including people who were sick, caring for sick family members or fearful of contracting the virus themselves. That weighed on an economy that was also grappling with supply chain disruptions and rising prices. As the number of vaccinated Americans has continued to rise and cases declined in recent weeks, economic activity has picked up and forecasts for fourth-quarter growth are between 4 percent and 6 percent, White House economist Jared Bernstein said at CNBC’s Workforce Executive Council summit this week. “The connection between a strong economy and vaccinations and the trajectory of caseloads is extremely clear to me, and in fact quite elastic — it happens very quickly,” he said. —Not everyone is convinced: “Higher vaccination rates are going to help I think, but I have to point out the labor shortage and the inflation issues pre-date Delta’s emergence,” Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas) tells MM. “Those were problems before Covid’s [latest] surge, so vaccines alone won’t solve this problem.” IT’S FRIDAY — And Jobs Day Friday to boot! Go ahead, get yourself those pastries this morning, you’ll need them to sustain you. Another week down with the new Morning Money crew. How are we doing? Don’t be shy: kdavidson@politico.com, aweaver@politico.com, or on Twitter: @katedavidson. | 
