Powell picks up the policy pace

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Thursday Dec 16,2021 01:02 pm
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By Kate Davidson and Aubree Eliza Weaver

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Quick Fix

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday accelerated its removal of support for the economy and penciled in three rate increases next year — a dramatic pivot in the face of higher and more persistent inflation than officials expected just a few months ago.

Some takeaways:

— This isn’t your father’s tightening cycle. Compared to the last time the Fed withdrew support, the central bank is moving at warp speed. After the 2008 financial crisis and several rounds of bond-buying, the Fed spent 10 months tapering asset purchases, then waited more than a year after that to begin (slowly) raising rates.

The Fed’s latest move means it will wrap up the asset-purchase program by March, three months sooner than initially planned. Though Chair Jerome Powell didn’t say how soon rate hikes could begin after that, Fed policymakers’ median projection for the federal funds rate implies three increases next year.

“The economy is so much stronger now and so much closer to full employment,” Powell told reporters after the meeting. “Inflation is running well above target and growth is well above potential. There wouldn't be the need for that kind of long delay.”

Powell also said the policy committee began discussions this week about when and how it may eventually shrink the Fed’s balance sheet. Last time, officials didn’t start that process until two years after the first rate increase.

Removing accommodation: The post-meeting statement dispensed with two key sentences, notes Ellen Meade, a former senior Fed economist who worked on FOMC communications. Officials removed language from their new framework that describes how the Fed will aim for 2 percent average inflation over time, and they got rid of a reference to maintaining accommodative policy until those outcomes are achieved.

“Any notion of what constitutes accommodation is now removed, which is very good for them because it gives them a lot of leeway as they move forward to figure out where is the neutral rate and how do they want to characterize what they’re doing,” Meade said.

Help from projections: Powell has spent plenty of time talking down the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, which reflects individual forecasts submitted by Fed officials but doesn’t always align with the message the chair is trying to deliver.

Forecasts released today showed officials expect higher growth and higher inflation next year — though they still expect price pressures to ebb by the second half of 2022 — and lower unemployment than they expected in September. More than half now see at least three rate increases next year, compared with September, when half of officials didn’t expect the Fed to raise rates at all until 2023.

“Today, the SEP was their friend because markets are nervous and skittish and asking, ‘Is the Fed behind the curve?’ And the SEP gave them what they wanted and more,” Meade said.

— Pivot away from labor-force participation: Powell emphasized that while officials have seen rapid improvement in the labor market, it may take much longer than they initially expected for labor-force participation to return to where it was before the pandemic.

“The reality is we don’t have a strong labor-force participation recovery yet and we may not have it for some time,” he said. “At the same time, we have to make policy now and inflation is well above target, so this is something we need to take into account.”

Is the Fed behind the curve? Powell side-stepped the question, emphasizing that officials “are well-positioned to deal with what’s coming.”

“There’s a real risk now that inflation may be more persistent and that may be putting inflation expectations under pressure, and the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched has increased,” he said. “That’s part of the reason behind our move today is to put ourselves in a position to be able to deal with that risk.”

IT’S THURSDAY — Just one more day before MM takes a holiday break. What do you want to read about in the new year? Let us know: kdavidson@politico.com, aweaver@politico.com, or on Twitter @katedavidson or @aubreeeweaver.

 

JOIN TODAY FOR A WOMEN RULE 2021 REWIND AND A LOOK AHEAD AT 2022: Congress is sprinting to get through a lengthy and challenging legislative to-do list before the end of the year that has major implications for women’s rights. Join Women Rule editor Elizabeth Ralph and POLITICO journalists Laura Barrón-López, Eleanor Mueller, Elena Schneider and Elana Schor for a virtual roundtable that will explore the biggest legislative and policy shifts in 2021 affecting women and what lies ahead in 2022. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
Driving the Day

November housing starts data released at 8:30 a.m. … Initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ... Industrial production data released at 9:15 a.m. … Senate Finance Committee votes on nomination of Neil MacBride to be Treasury general counsel at 10 a.m.

SEC’S GENSLER DEEPENS BUSINESS RIFT WITH REGULATORY CLAMPDOWN — Our Zachary Warmbrodt: “Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler on Wednesday triggered a backlash from business groups after the agency proposed restrictions on the nearly $5 trillion money market mutual fund industry and on corporate share buybacks.

“Gensler’s moves, which had the backing of the two other Democrats on the SEC’s five-member commission, led to immediate rebukes from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Investment Company Institute. Republican SEC commissioners also opposed the proposals.”

POLITICO’S STATE PANDEMIC SCORECARD — Nearly two years into the Covid-19 pandemic, we’re beginning to get enough data to evaluate how well states handled the crisis. Each state shaped its own response differently, and you can see the results in POLITICO’s State Pandemic Scorecard.

POLITICO's State Pandemic Scorecard shows how state decisions impacted lives, jobs, education and well-being

Annette Choi/POLITICO

States that imposed more restrictions such as stay-at-home orders and mask requirements did experience lower rates of death and hospitalizations. But they also tended to have worse economic and educational outcomes.

Overall, rural states tended to fare better than more urbanized states on better economic and educational outcomes. Many rural states, despite being less densely populated, ranked poorly in health outcomes, however.

DEMOCRATS URGE BIDEN TO AVERT STUDENT LOAN CLIFF NEXT YEAR — Our Michael Stratford: “Top Democrats are urging the Biden administration to again extend the freeze on federal student loan payments before it expires next month, warning that requiring tens of millions of Americans to resume paying their debt will drag down the economic recovery.”

U.S. EXPORT PRICES INCREASE BY MOST ON RECORD — Our Doug Palmer: “Strong global demand helped boost the prices that other countries paid for U.S. goods by more than 18 percent over the past 12 months, the biggest increase in nearly four decades, the Labor Department report released on Wednesday showed. The year-to-year export price gain was the most since September 1984, when the Labor Department price series began. U.S. farmers have been particular beneficiaries of the price increase.”

MORE ON THE FED —

— Powell rejected the idea that he had held off last month on a hawkish policy tilt until President Joe Biden had nominated him for a second term at the helm of the central bank. (Bloomberg’s Chris Anstey)

— The Federal Reserve might be on its way to making a mistake, but it is hard to know in which direction. (WSJ’s Justin Lahart)

— Wall Street ended sharply higher on Wednesday after the Fed said it would end its pandemic-era bond purchases in March as it exits from policies enacted at the start of the health crisis. (Reuters’ Shreyashi Sanyal and Noel Randewich)

‘HOSTILE TAKEOVER’: FDIC’S MCWILLIAMS HAS HER SAY — FDIC Chairman Jelena McWilliams, in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal Wednesday, accused members of the bank regulator’s board – including CFPB Director Rohit Chopra – of trying “to seize control of the FDIC’s staff while its chairman was on a nine-hour flight to Europe for official meetings.” McWilliams this week blocked an attempt by the board’s Democrats to vote to solicit public feedback on potential changes to bank merger rules.

“This episode is an attempt to wrest control from an independent agency’s chairman with a change in the administration,” she said, citing longstanding agency norms.

ANALYSIS: AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD WILL SPEND $3500 MORE IN 2021 TO KEEP UP — The average U.S. household will spend about $3,500 more in 2021 to achieve the same level of consumption of goods and services as in 2019 and 2020, according to a new analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model. That burden will fall more on lower-income households, who will have to spend about 7 percent more this year, while higher-income households would have to spend about 6 percent more, economist Zheli He and senior analyst Xiaoyue Sun found.

CFPB CALLS ON TECH WORKS TO BLOW THE WHISTLE — The CFPB has updated its whistleblower complaint webpage to streamline how tech workers report potential violations of consumer law, such as algorithmic underwriting that embeds discrimination. “I encourage programmers, data scientists and others who have detailed knowledge of the algorithms and technologies used by companies and who know of potential discrimination or other misconduct within the CFPB’s authority to report it to us,” CFPB Chief Technologist Erie Meyer wrote in a blog post Wednesday.

 

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

 
 
Fly Around

CHINA ECONOMY SLOWS AS VIRUS OUTBREAKS DISRUPT RECOVERY — AP: “China reported Wednesday that its economy slowed in November , buffeted by coronavirus outbreaks, weak demand and supply chain disruptions. Retail sales were weaker than in October and inflationary pressures are complicating efforts to boost growth at a time when tighter limits on borrowing by developers are crimping construction and sales in the all-important property sector.”

WARREN: SEC SHOULD EXAMINE OIL CEOS WITH PAY TIED TO ESG METRICS — Bloomberg’s Daniela Sirtori-Cortina: “Fossil fuel companies should face probes on whether they’re using ‘loophole-ridden’ environmental, social and governance goals to boost executive pay while contributing to environmental destruction, Senator Elizabeth Warren said, adding to her calls to rein in CEO compensation. Marathon Petroleum Corp., Chevron Corp. and Occidental Petroleum Corp. and others appear to be using ‘easily-manipulated metrics’ to guarantee higher payouts for executives, Warren said, citing reporting by the Washington Post.”

 

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