In defense of deficit reduction

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Friday Aug 19,2022 12:01 pm
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By Kate Davidson, Sam Sutton and Aubree Eliza Weaver

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Deficit reduction is having a moment. Fiscal hawks want to make sure it doesn’t go to waste.

Groups like the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget supported President Biden’s climate and health care bill and cheered its enactment this week, arguing that the cost savings in the bill — i.e. lower deficits — would help tamp down inflation.

Now that the law is in place, CRFB is urging the White House not to undercut its ability to temper price pressures with other policies that could quietly add to government debt — and in turn push up inflation.

“We’re very much in favor of the Inflation Reduction Act,” said Marc Goldwein, the group’s senior vice president and senior policy director. “But between the original version and the final version, there were a number of changes that made it, probably overall, less effective as an inflation fighter and less deficit-reducing over time.”

 

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President Joe Biden signs the Democrats' landmark climate change and health care bill in the State Dining Room of the White House.

President Joe Biden signs the Democrats' landmark climate change and health care bill at the White House on Tuesday. | Susan Walsh/AP

One of those last-minute changes delayed the implementation of a Trump-era drug rebate rule, rather than repealing it completely. The repeal would have saved about $550 billion over the next two decades, CRFB estimated. Delaying the implementation until 2032, as the current law would do, will save the government only $150 billion.

Altogether, CRFB estimates the IRA will reduce deficits by a little less than $1 trillion over the next two decades — about a third less than the original bill.

But Goldwein says it’s not too late : CRFB is calling on the Biden administration to use its authority, through the federal rulemaking process, to cancel the rule for good, which they say would fulfill the original intent of the IRA. That would restore about $400 billion in cost savings, they estimated.

We reached out to the White House, but no word on whether administration officials are considering the move.

Also on the group’s radar? Student debt. A pause on student loan payments, first implemented during the pandemic, is set to expire at the end of the month, and the Biden administration hasn’t said whether or for how long it may extend it. An extension through the end of the year would cost the government about $20 billion — equivalent to the amount of deficit reduction expected in the first six years of the IRA, CRFB has warned.

It would also likely fuel near-term inflation by putting more money in Americans’ pockets, though the magnitude would depend on the length of the pause, Goldwein said.

The president is also contemplating canceling student debt for some Americans, which would likely cost the government more over the long term, but have less of an effect on price pressures, Goldwein said.

“From an inflation perspective, the worst thing you can do is continue the pause, the second worst thing you can do is cancel a bunch of debt,” Goldwein said.

Others aren’t so worried.

White House officials have said they don’t see a short-term extension of the repayment pause or targeted debt forgiveness fueling higher inflation.

Ending the repayment freeze in tandem with debt cancellation could even ease price pressures, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said on Twitter Thursday . While debt cancellation could generate higher spending among some borrowers, he said, it would be more than offset by the disinflation from billions of dollars a month in debt payments resuming.

Roosevelt Institute economists Mike Konczal and Alí Bustamante made a similar point in a new paper Wednesday that pushed back on CRFB’s conclusions. Among their arguments: there’s very little evidence that increases in wealth — which would result from debt cancellation — have led to higher spending so far in this recovery.

IT’S FRIDAY — Maybe grab a cold one from the fridge later today. Or a bottle of something best served chilled. And if that beverage gives you an idea, send us a tip (or story idea, or feedback) at kdavidson@politico.com, ssutton@politico.com or aweaver@politico.com.

 

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Driving the Day

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks at 9 a.m.

SAVE THE DATE — Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference next Friday at 10 a.m. ET, the Fed said Thursday. This year’s speech is especially significant, as investors look to Powell to signal how much the Fed will raise interest rates in September and through the rest of the year. The speech will be live-streamed here.

MEET THE NEW BOSS —  POLITICO’s Eleanor Mueller: “[The] golden age for workers — when wage growth exploded and employees arguably held more leverage over their bosses than at any time since the heyday of organized labor — is in danger of fading fast.

“‘We’ve been in this unprecedented situation where workers have really, really strong bargaining power,’ Curtis DuBay, chief economist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said. Now, ‘the data is starting to turn.’”

WATCH OUT/YOU MIGHT GET WHAT YOU’RE AFTER — WSJ’s David Harrison and Nicole Friedman: “U.S. existing home sales fell in July for the sixth straight month, the longest streak of declines in more than eight years, as higher mortgage rates and a shortage of homes for sale are cooling this once red-hot market.”

Fed File

CONSIDER THE OSTRICH — From WSJ’s Akane Otani: “The Federal Reserve says it is going to keep raising interest rates. Wall Street thinks it’s bluffing. This could spell trouble for both of them … For many investors, the rebound reflects a belief that inflation has peaked, and expectation that the Fed will shift from raising rates to lowering them sometime next year. A parade of Fed officials has tried to push back.”

BOB ODENKIRK SAYS TRIPLES IS BEST — Bloomberg’s Zoe Schneewiess and Ana Monteiro: “Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said the central bank should raise interest rates ‘a little’ above 3 percent by the end of the year to cool inflation, pushing back against investor bets that officials would then reverse course.

TRICK OR PEAK — WSJ’s Michael S. Derby: “Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Thursday he is considering support for another large rate rise at the central bank’s policy meeting next month and added he isn’t ready to say the economy has seen the worst of the inflation surge.”

ANIMAL SPIRITS — Reuters: “The recent easing of U.S. financial conditions, including a surge in stock prices, may have been based on an overly optimistic sense that inflation was peaking and the pace of interest rate increases was likely to slow, Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George said on Thursday … ‘To know where that stopping point is ... we are going to have to be completely convinced that (inflation) number is coming down,’ she said.”

Economy

SQUEEZE — WSJ’s Matt Wirz: “Rising interest rates have brought highflying consumer lenders back to earth. Finance companies such as Upstart Holdings Inc. and Mosaic lend money to people for purchases such as cars, solar panels and home electronics. But they have to borrow the money they lend out to consumers —and that is becoming increasingly expensive as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates aggressively.”

WORD GAMES — AP’s Ken Sweet: “The CEO of Bank of America said the recent debate over whether the U.S. economy is technically in a recession or not is missing the point. What matters is that current economic conditions are negatively impacting those who are most vulnerable . ‘Recession is a word. Whether we are in a recession or not is really not the important thing. It’s what it feels like for the people going through this,’ Brian Moynihan told The Associated Press during an interview at the Bank of America Tower in midtown Manhattan.”

Crypto

FROZEN BY CELSIUS — From NYT’s David Yaffe-Bellany: “The crash has entered a crucial new phase: a frenzied rush to recover lost funds. The effort stretches beyond Celsius, as the amateur traders who bet on a range of failed crypto projects seek compensation, file lawsuits and mobilize online . At the same time, some of the industry’s most powerful firms are examining what’s left of the distressed companies in a hunt for potential deals.”

AS REGULATORS CIRCLE — Bloomberg’s Emily Nicolle: “Tether Holdings Ltd. has signed an agreement with the Italian subsidiary of accountancy firm BDO LLP to issue quarterly attestations on the stablecoin operator’s reserves, shifting course as global regulators crack down on digital asset services … Proposed legislation in the US, the UK, Japan and elsewhere is expected to require issuers like Tether to file detailed and more frequent reports on their reserves, apply for similar licenses to non-banks and do away with controversial reserve assets like commercial paper.”

Jobs Report

Jeff Holmes has started as the new VP of public affairs at the New York City Economic Development Corporation. He most recently was an associate at the Brunswick Group and is a Bill de Blasio administration and SKDK alum.

Fly Around

Almost a quarter of funds that claim to ‘promote’ sustainability under European regulations don’t deserve an ‘ESG’ label, according to a fresh review by market researcher Morningstar Inc.” — Bloomberg’s Natasha White and Frances Schwartzkopff

Turkey’s central bank delivered a shock cut to interest rates despite inflation soaring to a 24-year high and the lira trading near a record low. The currency weakened sharply. — Bloomberg’s Beril Akman and Tugce Ozsoy

Rolling blackouts and factory shutdowns, which affected Toyota and Foxconn, a supplier for Apple, point to the ways that extreme weather is adding to China’s economic woes. — NYT’s Tiffany May and Joy Dong

 

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