Tim Scott’s banking agenda: What we know

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Friday Nov 04,2022 12:01 pm
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By Zachary Warmbrodt , Sam Sutton and Kate Davidson

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The big mystery for finance industry lobbyists gaming out the post-midterm landscape is Sen. Tim Scott and what he would do at the helm of the Senate Banking Committee. Here’s what we know after working our sources in Scott world and the Washington finance bubble.

Get up to speed on Scott’s “Opportunity Agenda.” The South Carolina conservative Republican isn’t signaling concrete details of how he’d run the committee, in contrast with Rep. Patrick McHenry , who has sketched out specific legislative targets for House Financial Services.

Scott is essentially a blank slate on crypto policy, for example, which is expected to dominate the financial policy debate next year.

But people who know Scott well say his priorities will align with the Opportunity Agenda he has been sketching out for years.

Economic empowerment — in particular for working-class people — is a major theme. It reflects Scott’s personal story — the child of a single mother who rose from poverty as an insurance agent and then became one of the most well-known politicians of his generation. It’s manifested in the form of bipartisan bills that would expand the types of consumer data that go into credit scoring and give credit unions more flexibility in the types of loans they can offer.

Saat Alety , a Federal Hall Policy Advisors partner who was a key banking aide to Scott, has a piece of advice for crypto, housing and banking interests eager to influence his former boss’s agenda: "Folks will need to prove that their policy ideas have a connection to growing the economy for working-class people and making it easier for Americans to climb the economic ladder."

Scott’s rhetoric and background could make him a tricky political foil for populist Democrats, such as current committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, who also frame their policies around attacking inequality. It could also yield bipartisan work, particularly around an embattled housing sector that falls under Senate Banking oversight, said Aaron Cutler, a former senior Republican House staffer who now leads the government relations and public affairs practice at Hogan Lovells.

The 2024 factor is a big wild card for Scott. He is seen as a possible candidate in the Republican presidential primary, and it’s unclear how a campaign would affect his committee work. “The most important question, which I think will have a massive impact on his leadership, is what his political future is,” said one lobbyist who works with the committee.

Scott’s spokesperson said : “Senator Scott’s Opportunity Agenda aims to breathe life into America’s forgotten communities and create pathways to economic opportunity for all Americans. But under the leadership of Joe Biden and Senate Democrats, access to the American Dream is further and further out of reach. The senator looks forward to holding them accountable and rolling out a common sense path forward once we know what the congressional landscape will be. Any announcements before that would be premature.”

IT’S FRIDAY — Happy Jobs Day. Have a tip, story idea or feedback to share? Let us know: kdavidson@politico.com and ssutton@politico.com .

 

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Driving The Day

Jobs report released at 8:30 a.m. … Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks at 10 a.m. … Federal Reserve releases Financial Stability Report at 4 p.m.

OIL CAP SECURED — Reuters’s Andrea Shalal, Noah Browning and Timothy Gardner: “The Group of Seven rich nations and Australia have agreed to set a fixed price when they finalize a price cap on Russian oil later this month , rather than adopting a floating rate, sources said on Thursday. U.S. officials and G7 countries have been in intense negotiations in recent weeks over the unprecedented plan to put a price cap on sea-borne oil shipments, which is scheduled to take effect on Dec. 5 - to ensure EU and U.S. sanctions aimed at limiting Moscow's ability to fund its invasion of Ukraine do not throttle the global oil market.”

WHEN BIDEN WANTS TO TALK ABOUT INFLATION — Bloomberg’s Nancy Cook: “While his predecessors might have turned to Wall Street giants like Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Biden’s White House reached out to corporate executives such as Apple Inc.’s Tim Cook, Bank of America Corp.’s Brian Moynihan, and the leaders of retailers Target Corp. and Walmart Inc., according to people familiar with the matter. Biden’s most frequent calls were with labor leaders, several of whom the president’s known for years . He talked occasionally with former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, whom the president calls ‘Lar,’ and gleaned tidbits of information about the US economy from people he ran into at church, golf and his grandkids’ field hockey games back home in Delaware.”

BUDGET BATTLES Bloomberg’s Steven Dennis: “Senate Budget Chairman Bernie Sanders wants Democrats to raise the $31.4 trillion US debt limit in a lame-duck session if Republicans win control of the House or Senate in next week’s midterm elections to preempt their plan to use it as leverage to force spending cuts next year.”

BAD NEWS FOR REVENUE TARGETS — WSJ’s Suzanne Vranica and Patience Haggin: “Food company General Mills Inc., Oreo maker Mondelez International Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Volkswagen AG’s Audi are among a growing list of brands that have temporarily paused their Twitter advertising in the wake of the takeover of the company by Elon Musk.”

EXIT — American Banker’s Jim Dobbs: “TIAA in New York is selling its bank unit to a group of investors as part of a broader strategic plan under new leadership to refocus on the company's core retirement and asset management businesses.”

Regulatory Corner

SANCTIONS — POLITICO’s Benjamin Guggenheim: “The criminal investigations unit of the IRS identified and tracked nearly 50 Russians sanctioned in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, according to an annual report produced by the agency.”

Fed File

OIL CAP — Our Charlie Cooper: “The U.K. government will ban countries from using the British insurance sector to facilitate the transport of Russian oil unless it is sold under a planned price cap. A G-7 price cap on Russian oil, announced by the group in September and now also backed by Australia, is set to come into effect on Dec. 5, to align with a planned EU ban on Russian crude imports.”

IT COULD HAPPEN TO YOU PT. II: SECOND ORDER EFFECTS — WSJ’s Imani Moise and Alyssa Lukpat: “The Federal Reserve is boosting the Powerball jackpot without even buying a ticket … That is because the advertised jackpot is the future value of the prize after being invested in government bonds over 30 years.”

Economy

TECH’S TROUBLES — Bloomberg’s Nick Turner: “Tech companies are once again tapping the brakes on hiring … Amazon.com Inc. said Thursday that it would pause adding new corporate workers , citing an ‘uncertain’ economy and its hiring boom in recent years. Lyft Inc., the ride-hailing company, is going further: It will eliminate 13% of staff, or around 683 people.”

CONCERNED ABOUT INFLATION BUT CRAVING BANH MI — Bloomberg’s Jackie Davalos: “DoorDash Inc. reported revenue that beat analysts estimates, a sign that customers are still ordering pricey takeout despite a squeeze from higher inflation.”

WEALTH CREATION? MEET WEALTH PRESERVATION — NYT’s Ronda Kaysen: “American home buyers are older, whiter and wealthier than at any time in recent memory, with first-time buyers accounting for the smallest share of the market in 41 years , the National Association of Realtors found in its annual profile of home buyers and sellers.”

HOUSING CRUSH — Bloomberg’s Dawn Lim and John Gittelsohn: “In just over five years, a Blackstone Inc. real estate fund for small investors has turned into a $70 billion force in the US economy … Even though the BREIT strategy is outperforming stocks — total net returns for its most popular share class were 9.3% in the nine months ended September — inflows are slowing and redemptions are up .”

UNDER THE OVERPASS — POLITICO’s Jeremy White: “Gov. Gavin Newsom has issued a blanket rejection of local California governments’ plans to curb homelessness, putting on hold hundreds of millions of dollars in aid — a sharp rebuke to how cities and counties are tackling the metastasizing issue .”

Crypto

MIDDLING AT BEST — Coindesk’s Jesse Hamilton: “Crypto hasn’t apparently fared any better as a political topic in midterm congressional campaigns approaching the Nov. 8 general election. A remarkable few candidates have been willing to say anything at all about digital assets in public , though plenty have assured the industry privately about what they’d do for crypto and that their campaigns are worth supporting financially.”

Jobs Report

Sofia Baig and Akber Khan have joined Morning Consult’s economic research division as analysts, reporting to chief economist John Leer. Baig worked most recently as an analyst at the Fed board in Washington, focusing on monetary policy and bank stress testing. Khan was also a Fed analyst covering issues including banking and finance, short-term funding markets and monetary policy.

The Independent Community Bankers of America hired Kari Mitchum as vice president of payments policy. She was previously a product strategist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

 

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Fly Around

The Bank of England raised its key interest rate by 0.75 percentage point on Thursday, its largest rise since 1989. — WSJ’s Paul Hannan

Prime Minister Yair Lapid of Israel conceded Israel’s election on Thursday evening to Benjamin Netanyahu, paving the way for Israel’s opposition leader to return as prime minister at the helm of one of the most right-wing governments in Israeli history. — NYT’s Patrick Kinglsey

The International Energy Agency is “ sounding the alarm bell ” over gas supplies next year, warning European leaders not to become complacent following the recent fall in prices and urging them to take immediate action to ensure supplies for next winter. — FT’s David Sheppard

 

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