Why the stock market might not celebrate a debt limit deal

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Wednesday May 17,2023 12:02 pm
Presented by U.S. Bank: Delivered daily by 8 a.m., Morning Money examines the latest news in finance politics and policy.
May 17, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Sam Sutton

Presented by U.S. Bank

Editor’s note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services morning newsletter, which is delivered to our s each morning at 5:15 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day’s biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

Here’s a quick recap on where the economy stands as we (hopefully) enter the final innings on the 2023 debt ceiling debacle.

Credit conditions are tightening. Consumers are losing confidence — even if their spending habits say otherwise — and inflation remains elevated. Jerome Powell and other Federal Reserve officials aren’t eager to lower rates as they watch for signs of cooling labor markets and consumer prices. And while there’s hope the U.S. can avoid a recession, staff economists at the central bank aren’t particularly bullish.

Here’s why that matters: The possibility of an economic downshift — with no promise of relief in the form of rate cuts — will bear on how the market receives whatever deal President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy broker on the debt limit. If it includes overly restrictive spending cuts, we could see a repeat of the sell-off that followed the 2011 crisis.

“It was almost paradoxical, but the equity market, the S&P 500, fell after the debt ceiling passed” in 2011, Mike Reynolds, the vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, told MM. Depending on what, if any, “austerity” measures make the cut in a debt limit package, “we do think that there could be some equity market volatility around this,” he said.

For now, Wall Street’s response to the debt limit battle has been relatively narrow (much to the chagrin of certain Democrats). That could change with how final negotiations play out in the coming days, particularly now that Biden has cut short a planned trip to Australia and Papua New Guinea and elevated two top aides to close the deal.

In 2011, stocks started cratering in late July — about 10 days before the Aug. 2 “X-date” — and continued falling until President Barack Obama and Republicans announced a deal on July 31.

The carnage didn’t stop there, however. Two days after Obama signed the debt ceiling bill, the stock market reported its worst losses since the financial crisis as traders absorbed how the agreement – which forced major spending cuts – would hit an economy that was still stuck in the mud.

On Aug. 5, S&P announced a historic decision to downgrade U.S. sovereign debt, which further pushed down equity markets. Volatility gauges surged. Major indices didn’t recover until the following year.

Two big caveats: The economy is much more resilient now. The unemployment rate was nearly three times higher than it is today. Quantitative easing was still underway at the Fed. While there are signs a recession could be imminent, most expect it to be milder than the 2008 downturn.

“If we do pull back from the brink, you may not see that sharp reaction that we saw in 2011,” MSCI Managing Director Andy Sparks, who heads the investment firm’s portfolio management research team, told your host. “It may be more like 2013” when markets responded more favorably.

Just as importantly, while House Republican leaders are pushing for spending cuts now — something key leaders have argued could help cool inflation — they could easily backtrack if an economic contraction starts to hammer red districts, said RSM US chief economist Joe Brusuelas.

Even if new spending caps are binding, “the current track of negotiations between the White House and the Congress strongly suggests that whatever caps are put in place will not constrain the ability of the fiscal authority to respond to whatever needs arise in case of recession,” he said.

IT’S WEDNESDAY — As the proud namesake of a Monmouth County rest stop once said, we’re halfway there. Send tips, gossip and suggestions to Sam at ssutton@politico.com and Zach at zwarmbrodt@politico.com.

A message from U.S. Bank:

At U.S. Bank, we think of ourselves as a neighborhood bank in thousands of neighborhoods across America even though we’re the fifth largest bank in the nation. From supporting veterans to helping more Americans finance their dreams, U.S. Bank is truly small enough to care, and big enough to make a difference. Learn More.

 
Driving the day

Former Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker, Former Signature Bank Chair Scott Shay, New York Department of Financial Services Superintendent Adrienne Harris and California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation Commissioner Clothilde “Cloey” Hewlett testify at House Financial Services at 10 a.m. … Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will host an event for the bank’s small business program in Baltimore with Mayor Brandon Scott and Gov. Wes Moore at noon … Sen. Elizabeth Warren chairs an oversight hearing on Fed ethics policies at 2:30 p.m.

First in MM: Speaking of Warren — The Massachusetts Democrat blasted Fed Inspector General Mark Bialek in a letter before today’s hearing on the rash of trading scandals at the central bank. “Your failure to hold Chair Powell — at whose discretion you serve — accountable is the clearest possible example showing that your office lacks the tools necessary to effectively perform its important responsibilities as the Fed’s independent watchdog,” wrote Warren. Warren and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) introduced a bill earlier this year to make the inspector general a presidential appointee.

Cautious optimism — Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten said he was “encouraged” by the appointments of lead negotiators in the debt limit talks, the business group said in a statement on Tuesday. Longtime Biden adviser Steve Ricchetti and Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young will play point for the administration, while McCarthy designated Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.) as lead.

— Our Josh Siegel: “House Republican leaders are pushing a deal as part of the debt ceiling negotiations that would include narrow efforts to speed up permits for energy projects — but postpone action on Democrats’ proposals to ease the movement of wind and solar power.”

— Zach reports that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen escalated her warnings of “widespread suffering” and a potential stock market crash if Washington fails to raise the government’s borrowing authority at Tuesday’s Independent Community Bankers of America conference in Washington.

Reuters: “Americans are worried about the prospect of the U.S. government defaulting if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling, but are divided over the action to be taken.”

He’ll get another opportunity today — NYT’s Rob Copeland on the testimony of Silicon Valley Bank’s former CEO Greg Becker at Senate Banking on Tuesday: “In his first public remarks since Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, triggering widespread industry turmoil, the lender’s former chief executive pointed the finger at pretty much everybody but himself, casting blame on regulators, the media, his board of directors and even the bank’s own depositors.”

Meanwhile, at the Fed — Steve Matthews, Jonnelle Marte and Peter O'Dwyer: “One of the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish policymakers suggested it will need to keep raising interest rates, while four others stressed watching the impact of their tightening so far. The remarks on Tuesday by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, New York Fed chief John Williams and Richmond’s Thomas Barkin, Dallas’s Lorie Logan and Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee expose ongoing internal debate over a pause on rate hikes next month.”

 

A message from U.S. Bank:

Sallie Mae

 
In the markets

Stuck — The WSJ’s Peter Grant: “When average city office-occupancy rates at the start of the year surpassed 50% for the first time during the pandemic, many landlords viewed this milestone as a sign that employees were finally resuming their former work habits. Those office-usage rates have barely budged as most companies have settled into a hybrid work strategy that shows little sign of fading.”

— FT: “BlackRock calls employees back to the office four days a week

 

GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE.

 
 
Regulatory Corner

Call a friend — Also from Zach: “Reps. Josh Gottheimer, David Scott and Vicente Gonzalez on Tuesday pressed SEC Chair Gary Gensler to crack down on short selling that has pressured banking stocks, arguing that it threatens the industry … They echoed recent calls by banking trade groups.”

Settlement — Our Declan Harty: “Wells Fargo has agreed to pay $1 billion to settle a class-action lawsuit alleging that it misled investors about how regulators viewed its progress following a fake account scandal at the San Francisco-based lender.”

Crypto

Rep. Maxine Waters and House Dems wrap up stablecoin feedbackAlready, fault lines are emerging.

"I may have some technical points about the Know Your Customer and anti-money laundering provisions of our bill," fellow California Democrat Rep. Brad Sherman told Eleanor Mueller. On the former, "I've got to look at the text of the bill and how [it] interacts with existing statutes to see how clear it is that the Know Your Customer would apply to the entire ecosystem."

Is this the ‘regulatory clarity’ you’re looking for? — Our Bjarke Smith-Meyer: “Finance ministers today rubber-stamped EU legislation, DAC8, that will require crypto companies to disclose who owns what digital assets on their books … Armed with that information, it’s only a matter of time before legislators design new levies for an industry that was worth $3 trillion at its peak in 2021.”

 

DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The Covid-19 pandemic helped spur innovation in health care, from the wide adoption of telemedicine, health apps and online pharmacies to mRNA vaccines. But what will the next health care innovations look like? Join POLITICO on Wednesday June 7 for our Health Care Summit to explore how tech and innovation are transforming care and the challenges ahead for access and delivery in the United States. REGISTER NOW.

 
 
Jobs Report

Former Carlyle Group global partner and director of communications Chris Ullman has joined Narrative Strategies as a senior adviser.

Charlie Anderson is joining Arnold Ventures as executive vice president for infrastructure. He most recently was special assistant to the president for economic policy at the White House National Economic Council. — Daniel Lippman 

Merav Ceren is now deputy policy director for the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. She most recently was senior professional staff member for the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability. — Daniel 

A message from U.S. Bank:

At Minnesota-based U.S. Bank, community is everything.

Alongside banking services, U.S. Bank helps its over one million small business customers access programs to help them manage unique challenges.

With the aim of increasing home ownership, U.S. Bank has provided more than $951 million in affordable housing lending and helped fund nearly 30,000 affordable housing units.

And in honor of those who have served, U.S. Bank regularly donates mortgage-free homes, vehicles, and home repairs to military veterans. In 2021, the bank launched Operation Always Remember, giving veterans gift cards for gas, clothing, and restaurants.

U.S. Bank. Small enough to care, and big enough to make a difference. Learn More.

 
 

Follow us on Twitter

Mark McQuillian @mcqdc

Ben White @morningmoneyben

Victoria Guida @vtg2

Katy O'Donnell @katyodonnell_

Zachary Warmbrodt @Zachary

Sam Sutton @samjsutton

 

Follow us

Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Instagram Listen on Apple Podcast
 

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Please click here and follow the steps to .

More emails from POLITICO's Morning Money

May 16,2023 12:02 pm - Tuesday

Bank merger rethink

May 12,2023 12:37 pm - Friday

The new banking rift

May 11,2023 12:02 pm - Thursday

Time to pay the FDIC piper

May 10,2023 12:01 pm - Wednesday

Rewriting crypto

May 08,2023 12:01 pm - Monday

Coming soon for carbon