Bernstein on the Biden Way — Manhattan coming back — Yellen names top (temporary) bank cop

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Tuesday May 04,2021 12:04 pm
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By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver

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Quick Fix

Jared Bernstein on the Biden Way — Please join me at 9:00 a.m. for a conversation with White House Council of Economic Advisers member Jared Bernstein followed by a great panel including Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, Rep. Pete Stauber (R-Minn.), member of the House Small Business Committee and Alice Rodriguez, Chair of the United States Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.

We are going to talk Covid , the recovery and small business survival. But expect some questions for Bernstein on the size of President Biden’s jobs and family plans and whether the White House can sell them to Congress as the economy accelerates at a pretty brisk pace. We’d love to hear any questions you have for Bernstein or any of the other panelists. Email me on bwhite@politico.com and do tune in if you can. The MM man bun is gone. But the beard remains.

Green shoots in Manhattan — MM actually ventured into midtown Manhattan for a meeting on Monday for the first time since Covid hit. You can still park on the street. Traffic remains light. A lot of the stores and coffee joints remain shuttered. The basement level of 30 Rock seems strangely vacant.

But more and more across the financial industry, executives are talking about how and when to bring significant numbers of their workforces back. And major restrictions on Broadway and other indoor venues — including offices — will lift on May 19 . And the NYSE is coming back as well…

Via Bloomberg: “The New York Stock Exchange is opening up further for vaccinated traders. Companies whose staff are based at the historic NYSE floor will be permitted to raise their headcount if 100 percent of employees at the site can prove they’re fully vaccinated, according to a memo from NYSE Chief Operating Officer Michael Blaugrund.”

MM sidebar: The NYSE floor was kind of a ghost-town pre-Covid given the transition to all-electronic trading. But it’s still an iconic spot and images of more people on the floor will beam into homes and offices further signaling the Covid era in the U.S. is nearing an end. Well, not an end, given the slim chances for herd immunity, but a more low-grade, persistent and manageable threat. That’s all hugely bullish for the economy…

… Via Reuters: “Asia's share markets were mostly higher Tuesday as regional equity investors looked to signs of recovery from the coronavirus pandemic as major economies around the world reopen.”

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING — Hope to see you for our small business event this morning at 9:00 a.m.. Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

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Driving the Day

President Biden at 2:30 p.m delivers remarks on the Covid-19 response and vaccinations … Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen “will participate in The Atlantic’s Future Economy Summit … at 11 a.m. ET” (The conversation is pre-recorded) … Yellen will also participate in the WSJ’s CEO Council summit at 4 p.m. ET …

YELLEN NAMES (TEMPORARY) TOP BANK COP — Our Victoria Guida: “Yellen has tapped Federal Reserve official Michael Hsu to serve temporarily as one of the nation’s top bank cops, according to two people familiar with the matter, the latest development in a contentious personnel fight.

“Hsu will serve as the acting head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency … No one has been formally nominated for the position, but news that … Biden was expected to tap former Treasury official Michael Barr generated strong blowback from some progressive groups. ...

"Lawmakers including Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown and the Congressional Black Caucus have supported appointing another top contender: law professor Mehrsa Baradaran, who is an expert in racial inequities in the financial system.”

CONGRESS’S TOP TAX MAN WON'T BE A BLANK CHECK FOR BIDEN — Our Brian Faler: “Biden's $4 trillion plan to greatly expand the federal government relies on sharply higher taxes on the wealthy, but the man who would steer the proposal through Congress has his own ideas.

“Even as many of his colleagues rally around the cause of sticking it to the rich, House Ways and Means Chair Richard Neal (D-Mass) remains wary. He isn’t necessarily opposed to requiring the well-to-do to pay more, but he also isn’t convinced that Democrats’ need to fully pay for their plans with tax increases, especially when super-low interest rates mean the government can borrow cheaply.”

EMAIL BAG: ALEX LASRY EDITION — Via email fundraising pitch from Avenue Capital’s Marc Lasry on his sons’ Wisconsin Senate bid: “I’m excited to share the news that my son, Alexander is two months into his candidacy for the United States Senate. …

“Alexander just closed out the strongest first quarter of any first time Senate challenger in Wisconsin history, raising over $1,000,000 in just 43 days. He received contributions from 69 of 72 Wisconsin counties and jumped into the race with endorsements from across the state, especially from some great young elected leaders in Milwaukee.”

CORDRAY COMES BACK — Our Michael Stratford: “The Biden administration is planning to install Richard Cordray, the former director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, as the head of the nation’s $1.6 trillion portfolio of federal student loans, according to several sources familiar with the decision.

“The selection of Cordray, who previously was attorney general of Ohio and ran unsuccessfully to be governor, is a major victory for progressives who have been calling on the Biden administration to take more aggressive action on student loans and for-profit colleges.”

Markets

WALL STREET LOGS GAINS ON MONDAY — AP’s Damian J. Troise and Alex Veiga: “Health care and energy companies helped push stocks higher Monday, as Wall Street kicked off the first trading day in May with more gains after a four-month winning streak. The S&P 500 rose 0.3 percent. Industrial and financial stocks also helped lift the market. Falling technology and communication stocks, and companies that rely on consumer spending, kept the market’s gains in check. Treasury yields were mixed.”

RECORD SHARE OF COMPANIES ARE BEATING EARNINGS ESTIMATES — WSJ’s Akane Otani: “Corporate earnings have rarely looked this good. With the earnings season more than halfway over, most companies in the S&P 500 have surpassed analysts’ profit expectations.

“As of Friday, results from 87 percent of those that have reported were better than expected, according to Refinitiv. That is above the historical average of 65 percent and on pace for the highest share since Refinitiv began tracking the metric in 1994. And companies aren’t just beating estimates — they are topping them by far more than usual.”

DIGITAL DOLLAR PROJECT TO LAUNCH FIVE CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY PILOTS — Reuters’ Michelle Price: “The U.S. nonprofit Digital Dollar Project said on Monday it will launch five pilot programs over the next 12 months to test the potential uses of a U.S. central bank digital currency, the first effort of its kind in the United States.

"The private-sector pilots initially will be funded by Accenture Plc and involve financial firms, retailers and NGOs, among others. The aim is to generate data that could help U.S. policymakers develop a digital dollar.”

 

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Fly Around

POWELL STRIKES HOPEFUL TONE, BUT EMPHASIZES PANDEMIC’S UNEVEN COSTS — NYT’s Jeanna Smialek: “Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, struck a hopeful tone about the United States economy in a speech on Monday — but he emphasized that the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic has disproportionately harmed vulnerable communities.

“‘While some countries are still suffering terribly in the grip of Covid-19, the economic outlook here in the United States has clearly brightened,’ Mr. Powell said. And in the United States, ‘lives and livelihoods have been affected in ways that vary from person to person, family to family, and community to community.’”

TREASURY QUADRUPLES BORROWING ESTIMATES — Bloomberg’s Liz McCormick: “The U.S. Treasury more than quadrupled its borrowing estimate for the quarter through June, and expects to need some $1.3 trillion over the second half of the fiscal year to help pay for a raft of fresh pandemic-relief spending.

"The Treasury’s projections, released in Washington Monday, incorporated the impact of President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic-relief bill, enacted in March. In a February outlook, the Treasury left out any guess on such spending.”

FED SURVEY: BANKS EASED STANDARDS FOR BUSINESSES, HOUSEHOLD LOANS IN Q1 — Reuters: “Loan officers at U.S. banks reported easing standards on most business and household loans in the first three months of the year as more of the country reopened amid accelerating vaccination rates.

"Standards on commercial real estate loans remained basically unchanged, while banks reported tighter standards for construction and land development loans, according to loan officers responding to the Federal Reserve survey released on Monday.

 

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For Your Radar

NEW ON SMALL BIZ — John Dearie of the Center for American Entrepreneurship “is out today with a new post on the heightened post-Covid importance of digital commerce platforms to new and small businesses, and urging policymakers to carefully think through their scrutiny of the platforms to avoid unintended consequences that could undermine the post-Covid economic recovery.”

TRANSITIONS — Michael Desmond is now a partner in Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher’s LA and D.C. offices. He previously was chief counsel of the IRS and assistant general counsel at Treasury. …

Per CNBC announcement “Valerie Castro, an Emmy award-winning journalist, joins the network as a correspondent for The News with Shepard Smith. … Kristina Partsinevelos joins CNBC as a general assignment reporter for Business Day covering stocks, investment trends around ESG and the reopening of the American economy.

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