Powell and Bidenomics will have to tango

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Thursday Jun 29,2023 12:00 pm
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By Sam Sutton

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Before we get to the results of the big bank stress tests, let’s take a moment to unpack what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said about Fed rates and inflation while on a panel with other central bankers in Sintra, Portugal, on Wednesday.

“We’ve got a labor market where jobs are being created. There are strong wage gains,” Powell said. That’s driving “real incomes, and driving spending, which is driving more demand and continuing to drive labor markets. The labor market is really pulling the economy.”

In other words, inflation won’t improve until the backbone of “Bidenomics” — the labor market — starts to slip a disk.

“You want to make sure you’re growing slower but not contracting,” Skanda Amarnath, executive director of worker advocacy group Employ America, told MM.

“If unemployment starts going up, it’s hard to stop it in its tracks,” he added. “That’s the thing that worries me, it’s one thing for jobs growth to slow down, it’s another thing to have job loss.”

To be clear, Powell’s never gone so far as to claim that unemployment needs to skyrocket to bring inflation under control. But his continued focus on how rising wages and low unemployment are contributing to inflation could come at an inopportune moment for President Joe Biden, whose political future now hinges on a jobs market that has bolstered the middle class holding steady through 2024. (One major Biden policy aiming to benefit that population — a student debt forgiveness program valued at $400 billion — could be nixed by the Supreme Court later today.)

“For the Bidenomics theme to really work, it’s important for wage gains to be solid relative to inflation. And inflation is more volatile relative to wage growth,” Amarnath said.

And that depends on the Fed tempering on monetary policy before rising borrowing costs push the economy into a recession, pushing up unemployment. Setting aside the Fed’s “hawkish pause” in June, Powell on Wednesday made it clear that he still anticipates another two rate hikes later this year.

The bottom line is that policy hasn’t been restrictive enough for long enough,” he said.

So does that mean the market might be in for back-to-back increases at the July and September meetings?

“It may work out that way. It may not work out that way. But I would not take moving in consecutive meetings off the table at all,” Powell said.

On to the stress tests: Congratulations, Wall Street. Your biggest banks have what it takes to survive a massive writedown on commercial real estate assets, our Victoria Guida reports.

The reason may surprise you. From Victoria: “The hypothetical losses were actually smaller than last year’s despite a larger assumed jump in the unemployment rate. That’s because the scenario assumed interest rates would drop, which would lead to unrealized gains for the megabanks, who have to factor swings in market prices into their capital requirements.”

As you’ll recall, unrealized losses on securities whose value has declined amid rising rates were a big reason why Silicon Valley Bank and two other regional institutions failed this spring.

The banking lobby has already seized on the stress test results as a sign that banking regulators should slow their roll on raising capital requirements as they march to the finish line on Basel III.

“Policymakers should keep today’s results front and center before they consider new Basel capital requirements that would only make it harder for banks of all sizes to meet the needs of their customers, clients and communities,” American Bankers Association President Rob Nichols said in a statement.

IT’S THURSDAY — Send tips, gossip and suggestions to ssutton@politico.com and to Zach at zwarmbrodt@politico.com.

 

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Driving the day

Revised first-quarter GDP will be released at 8:30 a.m. … The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget holds a virtual discussion on the fiscal outlook post-debt limit deal at 1:30 p.m. … The SEC has a closed meeting at 2 p.m.

Let’s get this show on the road — Our Jennifer Haberkorn filed a dispatch from West Columbia, S.C. on Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm’s role in the Biden administration’s “Bidenomics” roadshow: “The Biden administration insists it is merely hitting the parts of the country where investments are taking place, ribbons await cuts and dirt needs turning. But officials are also eager to draw a contrast between the Democrats who got this legislation passed and the Republicans who have opposed and tried to repeal it.”

Speaking of Bidenomics — A new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll found that just 34 percent of U.S. adults approve of the president’s economic leadership.

Coinbase strikes back — Declan Harty reports: Late Wednesday, the company officially launched an effort to dismiss the SEC’s three-week-old charges on the grounds that the agency is “attempting to assert jurisdiction where it has none under the law,” Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal said. The agency sued the company for, among other things, illegally running a national securities exchange.

Jobs Report

Rouse next steps — After two years at the helm of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, Cecilia Rouse has been tapped to lead the Brookings Institution. She’ll take over from interim president Amy Liu next month.

“Cecilia is that rare triple threat: an outstanding scholar, a strong institutional leader, and a policy adviser at the highest levels,” Ben Bernanke, Brookings distinguished senior fellow and former Federal Reserve chair, said in a statement. “Those strengths make her a great fit for Brookings."

Regulatory Corner

Funds incoming — Katy O’Donnell reports that the Department of Housing and Urban Development will soon make available $3.1 billion for communities’ homelessness programs, the White House announced Wednesday, marking the largest-ever single-year investment through the Continuum of Care program.

“One of the Biden administration’s top priorities is to reduce homelessness writ large,” White House domestic policy adviser Neera Tanden told reporters on a call. The administration is also dedicating new funding to legal services and job resources for homeless veterans.

Raise high the floor beam — Also from Katy: “The Federal Housing Administration on Wednesday raised its multifamily large loan threshold for the first time since 2014, in a move that will simplify underwriting for the development of apartments.”

SEC/EV — Bloomberg’s Jonathan Randles and Sean O’Kane: “Bankrupt Lordstown Motors Corp. has had confidential settlement talks with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which has previously inquired about whether the electric vehicle startup misled investors in relation to its merger with a blank-check company when it went public in 2020.”

The GOP hits Khan — Bloomberg’s Emily Birnbaum and Leah Nylen: “Republicans leading two powerful House committees are accusing Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan of giving “misleading testimony” before Congress in April over her participation in the agency’s Meta Platforms Inc. probe.”

In the markets

AI exuberance powered the stock market bull run — The Biden administration’s outbound investment rules could curb that enthusiasm.

— Bloomberg’s Eric Martin and Jenny Leonard: “Nvidia Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress said Wednesday that the company is aware of the reports on tighter restrictions. Strong overall demand for its products means that there will be no material impact to earnings should such rules be introduced, she said at an online investor event. China represents about 20% to 25% of Nvidia’s data center revenue, and — in the long term — any ban of exports to that country would represent a loss of opportunity, she said.”

— The FT: “Micron upbeat on revenue prospects but warns on impact of China ban

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
 

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