Is the GOP's business breakup peaking?

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Tuesday Aug 08,2023 12:01 pm
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POLITICO Morning Money

By Jasper Goodman and Zachary Warmbrodt

Presented by Structured Finance Association

Editor’s note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services morning newsletter, which is delivered to our s each morning at 5:15 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day’s biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

QUICK FIX

The Republican war against corporate America may be hitting its political ceiling.

A spate of recent polling — as well as a setback for the state-level anti-ESG campaign — suggests that attacking Wall Street over climate and social concerns has limited upside for GOP politicians, even in the Republican presidential primary.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis appears to be personifying this dynamic. His campaign against the “woke mind virus” has failed to get him within striking distance of the GOP nomination.

Let’s look at a few numbers:

— About 57 percent of GOP primary voters said in a June Morning Consult poll that companies are doing the right amount to promote social equality and acceptance in the U.S., not enough or that they have no opinion.

— About 65 percent of Republican primary voters in a July New York Times/Siena College poll said they prefer candidates who focus on “restoring law and order in our streets and at the border” over those who prioritize “defeating radical ‘woke’ ideology in our schools, media and culture.”

— And perhaps most telling: About 52 percent of GOP primary voters in the Times/Siena survey said they are more likely to support a candidate "who says that the government should stay out of deciding what corporations can support.” Thirty-eight percent prefer a candidate “who promises to fight corporations that promote ‘woke’ left ideology.”

GOP pollsters and strategists told MM the data may reflect discomfort among Republicans who are wary of the government intervening in business.

“The populist side [of the Republican base] is happy to go after any large institution, whether it’s a company, whether it’s government,” said Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster. “The more establishment, more traditional wing of the party doesn’t really want government getting involved in it.”

“Republicans are overwhelmingly concerned that we’re going to have too much regulation around these issues,” he said.

It raises questions about how much further Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee will lean into anti-ESG efforts, after spending much of July targeting climate and social investing.

“Congressional Republicans have squeezed most of the juice that they’re going to be able to get out of corporate wokeism on ESG issues for now,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean, who has researched GOP voter sentiment on ESG.

A live case study may have just played out at the annual meeting of the American Legislative Exchange Council, a group of conservative state lawmakers. Our Jordan Wolman reports that the group decided against considering a measure that would have prohibited states from doing business with companies deemed to be boycotting fossil fuels.

To be sure, the Republican attacks on ESG are still having an impact on corporate leaders, even if they don’t resonate with voters. Multiple analyses have found that companies' mentions of ESG and diversity initiatives on earnings calls are declining.

It’s Tuesday — RIP to William Friedkin. “The Exorcist” is probably the best Washington movie, though Zach would rather rewatch “The Exorcist III.” Let us know what you think: Zach Warmbrodt, Sam Sutton.

 

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Driving the day

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks at a Philadelphia Business Journal event at 8:15 a.m. … Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin discusses the economy at a Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce event at 8:30 a.m. … Ginnie Mae President Alanna McCargo speaks at a Bipartisan Policy Center event at 10 a.m.

PayPal enters the stablecoin policy chat — Payments giant PayPal is launching its own stablecoin, upping the ante for lawmakers and regulators who are struggling to craft rules for the digital tokens.

Stablecoins, if you need a refresher, are a form of a cryptocurrency that’s backed by another asset, often the U.S. dollar. Proponents argue that the tokens could serve as an upgrade for the payments system by making it easier for people to move money around.

PayPal is the biggest U.S. financial services firm yet to jump into the space. It plans to let customers use the PayPal USD to send person-to-person payments and pay for purchases. It says the the stablecoin will be redeemable one-for-one with U.S. dollars.

PayPal isn’t issuing the stablecoin itself but is instead leaning on its crypto partner Paxos, which is regulated by the state of New York.

House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry is citing the move as he tries to build urgency for his stablecoin bill. McHenry's proposal would set up federal oversight of stablecoins while also keeping a lane open for regulators in states like New York.

“This announcement is a clear signal that stablecoins — if issued under a clear regulatory framework — hold promise as a pillar of our 21st century payments system,” he said.

The Yellow meltdown’s economic impact — The WSJ has a look at the winners and losers of trucking giant Yellow’s bankruptcy. About 30,000 jobs are being lost, impacting a range of workers from accounting and technology staffers to truck drivers and dispatchers. Competing trucking firms large and small have started to see a surge in business. And don’t forget that taxpayers may be on the hook, thanks to the Trump administration’s $700 million pandemic loan to Yellow.

 

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Antitrust

FTC may let ICE get even bigger — The FTC told a federal court Monday that it wants to drop its challenge against the $11.7 billion merger of NYSE owner Intercontinental Exchange and mortgage data vendor Black Knight, Reuters reports. The agency and the companies are trying to negotiate a settlement by Aug. 25.

Climate

Insurance threatens California’s credit rating — S&P Global Ratings is warning that California’s finances are at risk thanks to rising home insurance premiums that could accelerate a decline in its population.

 

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World view

Biden approves Taiwan trade deal — Our Doug Palmer reports that President Joe Biden signed legislation to enact a trade deal that his administration negotiated with Taiwan. But Biden threatened to ignore certain conditions imposed by Congress, including providing future negotiating texts to Hill committees.

U.S. backs Angola payments upgrade — The U.S. Embassy in Angola has launched a project with mobile network operator Africell to “improve and expand the use of mobile money applications” in the country. The State Department describes the $5 million effort as a way “to support sustainable economic development by empowering the Angolan people.” It will be funded through USAID.

Our colleague Nahal Toosi notes that the U.S. is making the move as it tries to increase its influence in Africa, where the Chinese have often had an edge in trade and other partnerships. The Sino-Angolan relationship has been an especially close one, although Angolan leaders have signaled in recent years that they want to become less economically reliant on Beijing.

Regulatory Corner

Wells Fargo, Fed get heat for buyback plan — Public Citizen is urging the Federal Reserve to rescind any permission it granted Wells Fargo to proceed with a $30 billion stock buyback. The group also wants the Fed to release communications it had with the bank regarding the plan. The Fed has kept an asset growth cap on Wells Fargo since 2018, following a series of scandals.

 

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Fly Around

People moves Haelim Anderson has joined the Bank Policy Institute as a senior vice president of research. Anderson previously served as a senior financial economist at the FDIC. … Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research, Jeff Currie, is the latest senior departure from the investment bank.

 

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