Why Motor City matters to monetary policy

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Thursday Sep 07,2023 12:01 pm
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POLITICO Morning Money

By Sam Sutton

Presented by

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QUICK FIX

Persistently high car prices offered an early warning that inflation brought on by the pandemic might be stickier than many anticipated.

If the United Auto Workers and the big three car manufacturers fail to reach agreement on a labor contract by next week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and President Joe Biden’s efforts to bring down prices could get taken for a ride.

Senior Fed policymakers have already identified a UAW strike as a potential threat to supply chains that have only recently recovered from Covid-era bottlenecks. Auto inventories are still at a fraction of where they were before the pandemic, and demand for both new and used cars has remained strong. Price growth is starting to slow and the semiconductor shortage that waylaid production has started to abate. Even so, disinflation in the sector is taking longer than many expected.

The economic effect of a prolonged work stoppage at all three auto manufacturers — UAW’s 2019 strike at General Motors lasted 40 days — would be akin to that of a leaky brake line: It might not be noticeable early on, but the longer you wait to fix it, the harder you have to work to slow down.

“Spillovers will start out limited, or modest,” said Gabriel Ehrlich, director of the University of Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics. “If a strike went on longer than six weeks, we would expect those spillovers to be thicker.”

Ehrlich’s team produced a report late last week forecasting that Michigan’s economy could “wobble” in the event of a six-week work stoppage against one automaker, but not enough to throw off the three-year growth trajectory. Automakers would likely maintain purchases to preserve supply chains and assure they could “quickly gear back up” once the strike ends, he said. Just as importantly, those suppliers would be unlikely to lay off their own workers during that time so they could preserve positions against tight labor market conditions.

If a UAW strike against Ford, General Motors and Stellantis were to extend beyond six weeks, the situation would get much more complicated.

For one, it could put a dent in those still-recovering auto inventories — GM delivered about 30,000 fewer vehicles during the 2019 strike — which would likely cause prices to rise more quickly, creating another inflationary force as Fed officials contemplate a complicated path forward on rate policy.

And with workers sidelined, consumer spending around the state would slow, Ehrlich said. Supply chain disruptions would be more likely and investments in new or existing plants could fade. (Perversely, that sort of slowdown could also help cool inflation around Detroit, where prices have climbed faster than the rest of the U.S.)

“It's tough to measure these things. There's a lot of uncertainty around how that would play out,” Ehrlich said.

Of course, that’s why everyone wants to get a deal done as quickly as possible. But it’s far from clear if that’ll happen.

On Wednesday, UAW President Shawn Fain told the Associated Press that the union planned to go on strike against any of the Big Three car makers if they haven’t brokered a tentative deal by the time their current contracts expire shortly before midnight on Sept. 14.

“We’re going to do whatever we have to do to get an agreement,” Fain said. “If the companies choose not to do that — and they choose the strike themselves — then it’s going to happen.”

IT’S THURSDAY — For some reason, this song is stuck in your host’s head. Send tips, gossip and suggestions to Sam at ssutton@politico.com and Zach at zwarmbrodt@politico.com

 

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STOP THE BIG-BOX BAIT AND SWITCH: Big-box retailers, led by Walmart and Target, are seeking a massive handout from Congress, paid for by consumers. Mega-retailers are trying to trick Congress into enacting harmful credit card routing legislation (S. 1838/H.R. 3881), falsely claiming that it will help small businesses. In reality, this bill transfers billions from consumers to big-box corporations while eliminating popular credit card rewards programs, weakening cybersecurity protections, and reducing access to credit. Congress: reject this Big-Box Bait and Switch. www.stopthebigboxbaitandswitch.com

 
Driving the day

Unit-labor costs and productivity revisions for the second quarter will be released at 8:30 a.m. … The Philadelphia Fed kicks off its annual two-day fintech conference at 9 a.m. with Philly Fed President Patrick Harker, CFPB Director Rohit Chopra and Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman on the official schedule … Sen. Bill Hagerty, (R-Tenn.) and CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham will speak at a Cato Institute event on crypto at 9:35 a.m. … Senate Banking has a hearing on the property insurance market at 10 a.m. …

Slow (labor) train coming — Bloomberg’s Alexandre Tanzi: “US employment gains will slow significantly and be more concentrated across few sectors in the decade through 2032 as population growth moderates, fresh government estimates show.”

Trade deficit — The WSJ’s Justin Lahart: “The U.S. trade deficit has been narrowing, and that has been a plus for the U.S. economy. But it is still far wider than it was before the pandemic hit. Odds are that it is going to stay that way for a while.”

Here we go — The FT: “Oil hits $90 for first time in 2023 as Saudi Arabia and Russia extend cuts”

On the Hill

Manchin drama precedes Fed vote — Our Eleanor Mueller and Jasper Goodman: “The Senate on Wednesday confirmed two of President Joe Biden's Federal Reserve nominees and took a step toward approving another, despite brief uncertainty around Sen. Joe Manchin's support..”

Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em — Mueller and Goodman also report that Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown thinks an agreement on cannabis banking legislation is imminent. “We know that some members of the committee are going to vote no regardless, but we think there’ll be something good that gets a good majority,” the Ohio Democrat said.

Is it… is it still ESG month? — Our Olivia Olander: “House Republicans on the Education and the Workforce Committee introduced four bills this week that together would push back on environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) considerations in retirement plans.”

 

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Talking Points

Wall Street’s war against the SEC’s new private fund rule is likely to get prime billing when Chair Gary Gensler travels to Capitol Hill later this month for a pair of oversight hearings at Senate Banking (Sept. 12) and House Financial Services (Sept. 27).

The new rule, which was finalized last month, is the subject of a lawsuit from a half-dozen industry groups who’ve leaned on their allies in Congress in a bid to persuade the SEC to back off.

“Members have reached out to learn more about the process and how that will potentially unfold,” said Bryan Corbett, president and CEO of the Managed Funds Association — one of the groups behind the industry’s lawsuit.

Corbett said that he anticipates that lawmakers will take umbrage with how the SEC responded to repeated calls — as well as language attached to a $1.7 trillion government funding bill — calling for the agency to conduct more analysis on how the rule would affect smaller investment managers, particularly those owned by women and minorities.

The rule does dive into those effects and, while sub-$150 million managers could benefit from their exemption from compliance costs and reporting requirements, the agency did acknowledge that others might reduce their assets or limit their growth.

“The SEC acknowledged that the final rule will result in higher costs and could deter small funds from launching,” Corbett said. “I would be shocked if Congress was happy with the response.”

Regulatory Corner

CAT got your trade — Our Declan Harty: “Wall Street brokers will need to start chipping in to pay for the SEC's trading database under a plan the agency approved Wednesday over the objections of major industry players.”

Shake-up — Reuters’s Anirban Sen and Abigail Summerville: “Kroger Co and Albertsons Cos Inc are nearing a deal they hope will secure U.S. regulatory clearance for their proposed $24.5 billion merger, by selling more than 400 grocery stores to C&S Wholesale Grocers for nearly $2 billion.”

Jobs Report

Surety & Fidelity Association of America President Lee Covington will succeed Frank Nutter as the president of the Reinsurance Association of America on Jan. 1, 2024. Nutter is retiring after 32 years at the helm of the RAA.

George Rogers has left Republic Consulting, the lobbying firm he co-founded in 2019, to join the Mortgage Bankers Association as a vice president of legislative affairs. Rogers, a former John Boehner aide and Trump transition adviser, will primarily focus on lobbying Senate Republicans for the trade association, which has been a longtime client of Rogers’ since his days at Wexler | Walker. — Daniel Lippman

Influence and Industry

Name, image, likeness — Goldman Sachs is leaning into the NCAA’s new rules allowing student athletes to get paid for their endorsements. The bank’s 10,000 Small Businesses group tapped two kickers, University of Alabama’s Will Reichard and University of Texas’ Bert Auburn, for a new ad urging lawmakers to reauthorize the Small Business Association. A similar ad, featuring college basketball stars Caitlin Clark and Caleb Love, ran during March Madness.

 

A message from Electronic Payments Coalition:

CONGRESS: DON’T FALL FOR THE BIG-BOX BAIT-AND-SWITCH: Despite vigorous lobbying efforts from mega-retailers like Walmart and Target, proposed credit routing mandates (S. 1838/H.R. 3881) face steep bipartisan opposition. Consumers and small businesses don’t want to lose valuable credit card benefits or suffer from weakened cybersecurity protections– both consequences of proposed credit card routing mandates. Americans didn’t send their lawmakers to Washington to be fooled by the retail giants’ massive corporate welfare scheme--and they won’t forget those who sold out Main Street so that big-box retailers could line their pockets while consumers and small businesses suffer. Last year, Congress wisely rejected a similar Big-Box Bill, and they must do so again. Congress must protect consumers, preserve the integrity of the payment ecosystem, and reject this detrimental and unnecessary government intervention. www.stopthebigboxbaitandswitch.com

 
 

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