‘All over the place’: What’s next for the U.S. economy

By Suzanne Lynch

Presented by Philip Morris International

POLITICO’s Global Insider is morphing this week into UNGA Playbook, an exclusive seven-edition series spotlighting the world stage at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. But that's just the start! We're thrilled to announce the upcoming evolution of this newsletter into POLITICO’s Global Playbook. This premier pop-up newsletter, authored by Suzanne Lynch, is an insider's look at the pivotal gatherings and moments shaping global policy, politics, and power. Up next: The frontlines of COP28 from Dubai in November. Stay tuned!

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Good morning from New York. I’m Suzanne Lynch, bringing you Day 3 of POLITICO’s U.N. Playbook — and what a day it’s shaping up to be. A slate of high-level speakers — including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Joe Biden — take to the stage for the opening of the 78th General Assembly. POLITICO’s Nahal Toosi and Mona Zhang are also on the ground with me.

We’ll break down what to expect today, but first …

A-LIST EVENTS TODAY

EARTHSHOT PRIZE: We’re on royal watch, as heir to the British throne Prince William is expected at the Plaza for today’s Bloomberg Philanthropies Earthshot Prize Innovation Summit.

BEST TICKET IN TOWN: U.S. President Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will host a party for visiting dignitaries, and a smattering of business execs, at the Metropolitan Museum of Art on the Upper East Side.

CLINTON GLOBAL INITIATIVE: Once the official action ends, CGI organizers are expecting a special guest at their invite-only, private event tonight (hint: it’s Ukrainian themed).

A message from Philip Morris International:

Worldwide, an estimated 1 billion people still smoke. Let’s change that. It’s time to try a more inclusive and innovative approach that’s been proven in several countries and has the potential to significantly accelerate a decline in smoking. For adults who would otherwise continue to smoke, switching to a smoke-free product is a pragmatic option that can have a positive impact on both individual and public health. See how at PMI.com/Rethink

UNGA KICK OFF: A roster of big names will open the U.N. General Assembly today. Per tradition, Brazil is first up, with Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva giving his first address to the U.N. since his previous stint as president more than a decade ago. Biden is due up around 10 a.m., but the star of the show will be Zelenskyy, who’s currently 14th on the list.

ZELENSKYY LANDS: The Ukrainian president touched down on U.S. soil last night. His first engagement? A visit to Staten Island University Hospital where he met wounded soldiers. (Speaking to reporters afterward, he questioned whether Russia should be in the U.N. at all.)

Not his first rodeo: This will be Zelenskyy’s first in-person speech to the U.N. since Russia’s full-scale invasion and comes amid Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive. Famously, his first appearance after becoming president in 2019 erupted in controversy when details of a phone call between the Ukrainian president and Donald Trump prompted Democrats to announce an impeachment inquiry into the then-U.S. president.

A lifetime ago: Four years later, and the world has changed utterly. Zelenskyy, the former comedian, is now Zelenskyy the wartime leader. But his relationship with the American leadership is as crucial as ever. His task this time is to ensure that the United States, and the broader international community, continue to pour weapons and funds into Ukraine’s defense, particularly with Republicans wobbling about continued financial support for Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits with wounded Ukrainian soldiers at Staten Island University Hospital, in New York, Sept. 18, 2023. | Pool photo by Bryan Woolston

Knowing your audience: One thing to watch today — who is Zelenskyy’s intended audience? On the one hand, he needs to maintain Western support; on the other, he needs to win over the so-called “Global South” countries across Asia, Latin America and Africa that have been lukewarm in terms of support for Ukraine.

Getting priorities right: Several Western diplomats told us that it has been difficult to secure bilateral meetings with the Ukrainian leadership this week — instead, the Ukrainians are prioritizing meetings with countries that are on the fence about the Ukraine war. A meeting between Lula and Zelenskyy is expected.

Details: Zelenskyy is expected to make a pitch for his 10-point peace plan and to make the case for holding those who wage aggressive war against a neighbor to be held accountable.

Divided Assembly: He is facing a chamber that captures the complexity of the international view on the Ukraine war: 141 of the 193-member assembly backed a resolution condemning the war on its one-year anniversary — seven voted against, with 32 abstentions, including China, India and Pakistan.

Treading a fine line: Speaking ahead of today’s debate, European Council President Charles Michel, who represents the EU at UNGA, said his bloc’s view was non-negotiable: “Our support for Ukraine is very strong … There is an aggressor and there is a victim, and Ukraine is exercising its legitimate right to protect itself against an aggressor.” But he also stressed the need to engage with other views on the war — a key theme of the G20 summit just a week ago.

EU divided: But even within the 27-member EU there is a range of views. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, whose country has been friendlier with Moscow than its European partners, is planning to meet his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Baltic nations bordering Russia are vigorous in their support for Ukraine.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told our own Nahal Toosi that winning the war means pushing “Russia back to Russia.”

“We have to understand that all the questions about the peace conditions, you have to follow Ukrainians. Territorial sovereignty, the 10 points that Zelenskyy has announced last year [in his peace plan], the Ukrainians must decide,” he said. He argued that Russian leadership should go on trial for crimes related to the war.

A message from Philip Morris International:

HEALTH REBELS: A group of 11 countries is making a last-minute attempt to block agreement on three high-level health meetings taking place this week, as well as the U.N.’s Sustainable Development Goals, POLITICO can report.

What’s their beef: In a letter to U.N. General Assembly President Dennis Francis, the president of the 78th UNGA, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, North Korea, Eritrea, Iran, Nicaragua, Russia, Syria, Venezuela and Zimbabwe write that “the legitimate concerns of a large number of developing countries have been ignored.” In particular, they oppose economic sanctions, as our own Helen Collis and Carmen Paun explain (for POLITICO Pro s).

Why it matters: Delegates who spent months preparing for this week’s high-level meetings on three areas — pandemic response, universal health coverage and tuberculosis — could leave New York empty-handed. Nina Schwalbe, an expert at the Columbia School of Public Health, who has been following the negotiations on those declarations, said on X that this signals the death of multilateralism.

What happens next: The pandemic preparedness meeting is on Wednesday, followed by universal health coverage on Thursday and tuberculosis on Friday. We'll keep you posted on how the last-minute hitch develops throughout the week.

AGGRESSION IN THE CAUCASUS: Early Tuesday, Azerbaijan announced a new offensive in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, a major escalation in its conflict with the ethnic-Armenian-controlled territory. The escalating crisis in the region has previously prompted confrontations between Azerbaijan and neighboring Armenia at the U.N.

IRAN PRISONER DEAL: Just as UNGA is kicking off, Iran and the United States have engaged in one of the most high-profile prisoner exchanges in years. The deal grants Iran limited access to $6 billion of its funds that had been effectively frozen.

But don’t expect a softer tone from either Biden or Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi when they address the U.N. today. If anything, they’re likely to embrace tougher language. Biden is already battling criticism that he effectively paid a ransom for the prisoners. Raisi, meanwhile, has to assuage other hardliners in Iran who oppose negotiations with Washington and restrictions on Iran’s use of the $6 billion.

Pope Francis beamed into the Clinton Global Initiative during the gathering’s opening hours, greeted by former President Bill Clinton, who appeared to think the exchange would be a Q&A. But after Clinton lobbed his first question — asking what ordinary people can do to help the world — Francis launched into a prepared mini-speech, hitting many of his favorite themes, including stopping wars, aiding migrants and helping children.

Former President Bill Clinton speaks during the Clinton Global Initiative, Sept. 18, 2023 in New York. | Andres Kudacki/AP Photo

Clinton played along. Knowing time was limited, the former president managed to sneak in a quick follow-up after the pontiff’s remarks, asking if he had anything else to add. “On climate change — let us take action before it’s too late,” Francis said.

“Bless you,” Clinton said to the pope as the segment wrapped up. (A CGI press rep didn’t respond to questions about the planned format of the session.)

Quote of the day: “I think investing in girls, girls education, in girls and women’s safety, in girls and women’s economic and social empowerment, I think all of that focus, investing more in it will, of course, accelerate the drive towards our parity” — actor Natalie Portman at the #SDG Pavilion Monday.

Full steam ahead for Marrakesh: The World Bank-IMF annual meetings will go ahead in Morocco between Oct. 9 and Oct. 15, Morocco’s Economy Minister Nadia Fettah Alaoui, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva, and World Bank boss Ajay Banga announced on the fringes of UNGA. There had been doubts about the capacity — and appropriateness — to hold the high-level shindig in the country given the recent devastating earthquake. But organizers have pledged to proceed with the meeting in a way that doesn’t hamper the relief efforts and respects the victims.

AROUND TOWN

BEST-DRESSED DELEGATE: NBA champ Dwyane Wade dressed wearing a show-stopping plum suit, posing for selfies with fans at the CGI summit in Hilton Midtown.

COCKTAIL OF THE WEEK: Top marks to Verizon and EDISON alliance for their impressive array of cocktails at last night’s event at Upstairs at the Kimberley. Inspired by the “Lighthouse Countries,” a network of nations that form part of the U.N. Development Programme to promote digital inclusion, the menu included Bahrain Saffron Spritz, Bangladesh Blackberry Black Tea and Togo Mango Margarita.

OVERHEARD at Goals House @ Tavern on the Green: “I haven’t seen you since Davos” — prime example of summit scene banter (air kiss).

FOOD DIPLOMACY: It may not be a UN member, but Taiwan is hoping to highlight its bid to join the club with a tried and trusted formula — food. The Taiwan Peace Truck has hit the roads around the U.N., serving Taiwanese boba ice popsicles and other goodies, promoting the island’s democratic credentials.

PROTEST NUMBER 1: Filipino groups stopped traffic on the corner of 42nd Street and 5th Avenue on Monday outside the consulate of the Philippines to protest the Marcos government, marking the 51st anniversary of the introduction of martial law. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is not in town this week; instead, Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo is leading the delegation.

PROTEST NUMBER 2: A few blocks east, members of the Senegalese community demonstrated near the consulate general of Senegal, parading signs denouncing President Macky Sall. They were briefly dispersed by officers as the area shut down around 5.30 p.m. to make way for the presidential motorcade carrying Biden to a fundraiser event last night at the St. Regis hotel.

SPOTTED 

— At the Goals House nightcap at Tavern on the Green last night: Lena Headey; Matt Damon; John Podesta; Sabrina Elba; Patrice Evra; John Monaghan; and Alok Sharma.

— Joe Jonas and Sophie Turner walking together through the dining room at the St. Regis hotel. (The couple announced their split earlier this month.)

— U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly and besuited officials mixing with the crowd outside Grand Central Station.

— Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore also at the St. Regis Hotel.

— Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the Concordia Summit, being ushered through the lobby with a sizable entourage.

— Famed cellist Yo-Yo Ma getting into an elevator at the U.N. Secretariat Building, accompanied by his cello.

— At Verizon and EDISON alliance drinks Upstairs at the Kimberley last night: Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg; UAE’sy Omar Al Olama; Cina Lawson, Togo’s digital economy minister; Robert Opp; Sabastian Niles; Mark Blumenthal; Marco Funk; Anastasia Popova. 

AGENDA 

— U.N. General Assembly speeches kick off. Secretary General António Guterres is expected to speak at 9:00 a.m. U.S. President Biden and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy are both slated to take the podium in the first session with Iranian President Raisi scheduled to speak in the afternoon. Other world leaders on the agenda include Brazilian President Lula, King Mohammed VI of Morocco and Senegalese President Macky Sall.

— The Sustainable Development Goals Summit continues today. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivers speech, 3 p.m. 

— Biden holds bilateral meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Brazilian President Lula. Blinken holds bilateral meetings with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan and United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

— Clinton Global Initiative 2023, Hilton Midtown, final day. Key speakers include chef and founder of World Central Kitchen José Andrés; Bill, Hillary and Chelsea Clinton; World Food Programme boss Cindy McCain; writer and illustrator Oliver Jeffers; Jamila Afghani of the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom; Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama; David Miliband, chief executive of the International Rescue Committee Amy Pope, incoming director of the International Organization for Migration; actor Matt Damon; Nigerian economist Tony Elumelu; artist Will.i.am; Governor of Maryland Wes Moore; Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker; Governor of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer.

— Earthshot Prize Innovation Summit, Plaza Hotel, organized by the Earthshot Prize and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Expected speakers: Prince William; Michael R. Bloomberg; José Andrés; former New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, trustee at the Earthshot Prize; Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan; Emily Chang, host and executive producer at Bloomberg Originals; Bill Gates; U.S. Ambassador to Australia Caroline Kennedy; actor Nomzamo Mbatha; European Commission Executive Vice President Maroš Šefčovič.

— 2023 Annual Concordia Summit; Sheraton New York Times Square, runs through Wednesday. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul will kick off the day. Key speakers include: former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair; U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines; President of Malawi Lazarus McCarthy Chakwera; former President of the European Commission and former Prime Minister of Portugal José Manuel Barroso; and Minister of Digital Affairs for Taiwan Audrey Tang.

— USAID and Atlantic Council event: “Countering corruption and accelerating the Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine and Moldova,” 2 p.m. Find the livestream here. Speakers include USAID’s Deputy Isobel Coleman; Moldova’s Deputy Prime Minister Nicu Popescu; Ukraine’s Justice Minister Denys Maliuska; and EU Commissioner Ylva Johansson.

— ”What leaders must do to prevent the next pandemic,” organized by the Pandemic Action Network, The Elders, and the former chairs and panel members of the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, 8 a.m.

— ”Finding a new balanced financing strategy: Politics vs. reality in achieving universal health coverage,” organized by CISDI, a nonprofit working to advance the development of the health sector in Indonesia. 12 p.m. at the Yale Club.

— “Tuberculosis survivors speak out for better care,” organized by Doctors Without Borders, 12 p.m., online.

— “Towards a Fair International Financial Architecture,” hosted by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and European Council President Michel, UN HQ, 3 p.m.

Thanks to Carmen Paun; Helen Collis; Nahal Toosi; Mona Zhang; editors Emma Anderson and Heidi Vogt; and producer Sophie Gardner.

A message from Philip Morris International:

What’s being done to end smoking? When you look around the world, the answer is not nearly enough. There’s no doubt that quitting is the best choice. But for adults who don’t quit, smoke-free products provide nicotine without burning and are a better choice for those who would otherwise continue to smoke. We already see significant health benefits in Sweden, a country that has actively embraced smoke-free alternatives. Look also at Japan. Smoking rates in both countries have rapidly declined because regulations allow adult smokers access to smoke-free products. Why aren’t other countries adopting this approach? Today’s political and cultural landscape deters many governments and regulators from following the evidence. This inaction prolongs the life of cigarettes and risks shortening the lives of smokers across the globe. Let’s change that. See how at PMI.com/Rethink

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