Let’s assume for a minute that House Republicans fail to coalesce behind a new speaker today. What would it look like if Acting Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry — the bow-tied linchpin of the GOP conference — had to slam the gavel as more than just a caretaker? Republicans who have known McHenry for years argue that he’d be inclined to govern — no small thing given GOP dysfunction — and would probably have the skills to do it. It’s the reason why Wall Street executives took comfort when he was involved in hashing out a debt-limit deal this year. After all, McHenry warned well in advance that it would be a bad idea to take federal borrowing hostage. McHenry’s stated mission as chair of House Financial Services — a role he sought instead of GOP leadership — has been to find bipartisan deals on policy and get bills signed into law. He’s tried to work closely with Rep. Maxine Waters, the panel’s top Democrat. He even drew criticism from the right earlier this year when he kept diversity and inclusion issues prioritized by Democrats on the Financial Services agenda. So he’s perceived as a realist and a pragmatist. And that could be a problem when it comes to satisfying hard-liners like Rep. Matt Gaetz. “He has a worldview that I think would guide things,” a former senior GOP aide said. “But he’s flexible enough to work out deals. He’d be good at it in normal times. Whether the crazies want more of a fighter is a question.” Beyond banking and crypto policy, where does McHenry stand on the issues? Our Jasper Goodman reports that McHenry is close to the middle of his party when you look at him through the lens of the DW-NOMINATE ideology score. Per that metric, he’s more conservative than 55 percent of the GOP conference. McHenry has consistently supported military aid for Ukraine, but he hasn’t been vocal about it. He’s talked about how climate change is real. He’s sidestepped some of the culture war issues that have come to define GOP politics. But let’s take a cue from McHenry and get real. He’s said repeatedly he doesn’t want to be speaker, and many Republicans take him at his word. Before last week's speaker fiasco, lobbyists were bracing for McHenry to announce that he would retire from Congress — and at some point pursue a lucrative career in finance. “Conventional wisdom at the start of this Congress was McHenry would serve his final two years as chairman and then either retire or become speaker,” said one former Republican leadership staffer. “Nobody actually believed that speaker would be possible.” McHenry assumed office at 29 and has served for more than 18 years. The assumption that he might soon leave Congress isn’t based on hints he’s floating. It’s more about the professional and personal dynamics ahead of him. McHenry is term-limited in his Financial Services chairship and can’t keep doing it in the next Congress without a waiver. He has been openly reticent about wrangling conservatives as a member of GOP leadership, as we see today. He faces the demands of having a young family, including three children. “Everything we have seen from McHenry since he came to Congress suggests that he would rather run his committee than run the House,” said Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG. “In the committee, he has a chance to dig deep on issues and help shape the debate and the resulting policies. As a speaker with this slim a majority, the next person holding the gavel will just be scrambling to survive.” But you shouldn’t rule it out. Some GOP lawmakers — including former Speaker Kevin McCarthy — have said McHenry should be granted the full powers of the job until a new speaker is elected. McHenry spokesperson Laura Peavey told MM: “Congressman McHenry’s responsibility to the conference and the institution is to facilitate the election of the next speaker. That is his focus at the moment.” Happy Wednesday (it’s not Tuesday!) — Your thoughts on a Speaker McHenry? Let us know: Zach Warmbrodt, Sam Sutton.
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