Powell’s newest communication problem

From: POLITICO's Morning Money - Monday Dec 18,2023 01:02 pm
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POLITICO Morning Money

By Adam Behsudi and Zachary Warmbrodt

Presented by

NRF Foundation

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QUICK FIX

The stock market shot up. Global bond markets rallied. Wall Street thought Christmas had come early this year after Fed policymakers forecasted three rate cuts in 2024.

It wasn’t long before someone poured cold water on that notion: “We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now,” New York Fed President John Williams said on Friday.

Monetary policy is often a mind game for markets and politicians alike. How central banks communicate a policy is sometimes more consequential for a bond trader or a politician seeking reelection than the policy itself. And right now, on the eve of an election year, the Fed is grappling with how to broadcast a potential end to a bruising interest rate hiking campaign meant to bring down inflation.

“This is a particularly difficult time, signaling that you’re probably at the end of a tightening cycle,” said Ellen Meade, a former Fed senior adviser who was closely involved in messaging monetary policy. “The tactics around communication are tough.”

To most economists, the 0.75 percentage point rate cut that Fed officials alluded to last week wasn’t a sign of a dramatic slowing of the economy. As Fed Governor Christopher Waller mentioned in a speech in late November, cuts may be necessary to adjust rates back to “neutral” as inflation comes down. It’s true the economy has slowed, but most would agree it’s on solid ground going into next year.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s lean into potential cuts (a pivot from his more hawkish stance a few weeks ago) may have been an attempt to communicate that there was a fulsome discussion during the Fed’s meeting of how to exit a cycle of raising rates, Meade said.

It would have been inappropriate for Powell not to acknowledge the possibility of rate cuts if the Fed’s meeting minutes, to be released three weeks from now, revealed it was part of the discussion.

The strategy for communicating lower rates will largely depend on the data. And with uncertainty reigning supreme, it’s still anyone’s guess. For some, the potential for easing monetary policy may have raised some worry over the future path of the economy given a cooling labor market and soft spots in manufacturing and other sectors.

For now, most Fed watchers say there is enough evidence for the central bank to communicate a more deliberate stance on ending rate hikes. Powell admitted that Fed policymakers were “aware of the risk that we would hang on too long” when it came to raising rates, potentially sending the economy into a nosedive.

“They’re trying to engineer cruising at a lower altitude without landing at all,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist for KPMG.

She added: “Why risk a recession if we don’t need it?”

Happy Monday — Heading to the World Economic Forum and want to chat with MM? Send a note to Zach at zwarmbrodt@politico.com. He'll be on the ground in Davos.

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Retail is a great place to start – and a great place to grow a career. The retail industry is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, supporting one in four U.S. jobs – 52 million working Americans. 32% of Americans’ first jobs were in retail, and more than 60% have worked in retail at some point in their careers. Learn more about how we help people get a first chance or a fresh start in retail.

 
DRIVING THE WEEK


Monday ... The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index is out at 10 a.m. ... Tuesday ... Census Bureau residential construction data for November releases at 8:30 a.m. ... Wednesday ... The National Association of Realtors announces existing home sales for November at 10 a.m. ... Thursday ... Updated third-quarter GDP is out at 8:30 a.m. ... Friday ... PCE for November is released at 8:30 a.m.

First in MM Part 1: New Senate crypto scrutiny — Sen. Shelley Moore Capito is pressing the Treasury Department for information on cryptocurrency's use in terrorist financing, one of a growing number of lawmakers digging into the issue after the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel.

In a letter to Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson, the West Virginia Republican urged Treasury to create a report for Congress about the extent to which terrorist groups use digital assets to avoid sanctions, in particular those funding Hamas and related organizations.

"While I know that the use of digital assets is only one of many illicit funding sources for [foreign terrorist organizations], the ambiguity and lack of regulation regarding how cryptocurrency changes hands raises serious concerns that must be addressed," she said.

First in MM Part 2: Democrats warn regulators on bank capital — More than 100 House Democrats are urging regulators to reconsider a planned hike in bank capital that would impact clean energy investments, Eleanor Mueller reports.

The lawmakers, led by Rep. Sean Casten of Illinois, write in a letter to the heads of the Fed, FDIC and OCC that the provision at issue, which would quadruple capital requirements tied to renewable energy tax credits, "is not reflective of such investments’ risk profiles and would have unintended consequences that endanger the clean energy transition."

"Based on the conversations we've had with regulators, both privately and in the committee hearings, it's pretty clear that this was basically an oversight," Casten said in an interview. "The regulators kind of know it, and they need political cover. So I think it's an area where getting as many people on to provide the political cover to do what they kind of want to do, and need to do anyway, is just good politics."

Economy

Homelessness surges — Per Katy O'Donnell, homelessness sharply increased nationwide between 2022 and 2023, according to a new HUD estimate. More than 650,000 people were experiencing homelessness on a single night last January, a 12 percent increase from a year earlier. A surge in the number of people who lost housing for the first time drove the rise. A senior HUD official cited a shortage of rental housing and rising rents.

First look: Warning signs in small business — A Goldman Sachs survey of small retail business owners in early December found that 77 percent weren't seeing an increase in holiday sales and that 55 percent were experiencing declining profit margins.

Warning signs in auto loans — Bloomberg reports that car owners with negative equity — meaning they owe more on their loan than their vehicle is worth — were underwater by an average of $6,054 in November — the most since April 2020 and above pre-pandemic averages.

 

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Crypto

Coinbase sues the SEC — The crypto exchange filed a lawsuit against the agency after it rejected the company's call for new rules tailored to the $1 trillion digital asset market, our Declan Harty reports.

The SEC triggered the legal challenge after it doubled down on Chair Gary Gensler's view that federal securities laws already apply to much of the crypto ecosystem. The agency said drafting crypto-specific regulations would "significantly constrain" its ability to pursue rulemaking in other areas.

"While the crypto market experiences outsize fraud, abuse and noncompliance relative to its size, it nevertheless is a small portion of the bigger-than-$110 trillion capital markets," Gensler said in a statement. "It is important that the commission maintain discretion to direct focus to whichever parts of the capital markets need updated regulation."

Sustainable Finance

Jim Jordan subpoenas BlackRock, State Street — House Judiciary is targeting the two asset management giants as part of a probe into whether their climate efforts violate antitrust laws, our Jasper Goodman reports. The committee has also subpoenaed Vanguard and Arjuna Capital.

Florida's backstop insurer snaps back at Senate scrutiny — Per POLITICO's Gary Fineout, the CEO of Florida's Citizens Property Insurance is pushing back at Senate Budget Chair Sheldon Whitehouse's inquiry into the carrier and his suggestion that it may some day need a bailout.

“I cannot overemphasize that the assumptions in the correspondence suggest a fundamental misunderstanding of how Citizens Property Insurance Corporation operates, and they underestimate Citizens’ claims-paying ability,” Citizens president and CEO Tim Cerio wrote to Whitehouse. “As Florida’s insurer of last resort, Citizens is structured so that it will always be able to protect its policyholders and pay claims.”

A message from NRF Foundation:

Retail careers are life-changing careers. As the nation’s largest private-sector employer, the retail industry supports one in four U.S. jobs – 52 million working Americans. 32% of Americans’ first jobs were in retail, and more than 60% have worked in retail at some point in their careers. With only 2-5 years of experience in the industry, earnings increase 54%. Those who stay in retail for more than 5 years can expect a staggering 122% increase in compensation. Retail careers also enable faster role advancement, with upward role advancements occurring every 14.5 months. To learn more about how we help people get a first chance or a fresh start in retail, visit nrffoundation.org.

 
 

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